tchula

I am gonna say 38 🙂  I am actually pretty excited for this season.  

I appreciate all you do Jeff, but yesterday you made more tweets about the kneeling than about the game itself.  I completely support Middleton's right to kneel, but many of us go to sports to get away from the struggles of society.  It's our escapism from the hardships of real life.  I know some of it will overlap to some degree, and maybe that's appropriate, but I sure hope that this doesn't become the new norm or our Angels coverage isn't dominated by social commentary.  I know I may get criticized for this point of view, but I believe many folks feel the same way.  

I appreciate all you do Jeff, but yesterday you made more tweets about the kneeling than about the game itself.  I completely support Middleton's right to kneel, but many of us go to sports to get away from the struggles of society.  It's our escapism from the hardships of real life.  I know some of it will overlap to some degree, and maybe that's appropriate, but I sure hope that this doesn't become the new norm or our Angels coverage isn't dominated by social commentary.  I know I may get criticized for this point of view, but I believe many folks feel the same way.  

I appreciate all you do Jeff, but yesterday you made more tweets about the kneeling than about the game itself.  I completely support Middleton's right to kneel, but many of us go to sports to get away from the struggles of society.  It's our escapism from the hardships of real life.  I know some of it will overlap to some degree, and maybe that's appropriate, but I sure hope that this doesn't become the new norm or our Angels coverage isn't dominated by social commentary.  I know I may get criticized for this point of view, but I believe many folks feel the same way.  

I am gonna say 38 🙂  I am actually pretty excited for this season.  

Thanks halonatic ... to each his own I guess.  Not to get into a tit for tat, but between posts about Middleton kneeling, Giant player kneeling, and retweets most of yesterday's commentary was more about kneeling than the game.  I mean, after all, it is only the first real game (albeit an exhibition) since the pandemic. I guess that's not a big deal.  And professional players have been kneeling during the anthem for the past two years, so it's not like it's new.  Granted, I acknowledge the BLM protest have brought new life to the debate (and I agree with the majority of BLM's political objectives ... hell, I even have a PhD in political science and one of my areas of study was race relations in the US), but I guess I seek sports out to watch and read about sports.  If that makes me a snowflake so be it.  

I completely understand wanting an escape. From the virus talk, politics, etc.
I watched the game last night. They showed this moment briefly. Commented on it briefly. If you left the room, you could have missed it.
Twitter is a whole different animal.  Things get beaten to death on there in no time.  I'm not sure why beat writers do play by play, but of course they were going to mention it.  It's a story.
For some reason, it pisses people off. What's the big deal, though? Kenyan Middleton feels like he needs to do this.  He's not hurting anyone  He is not disrespecting anyone or any piece of fabric. . It should not marr anyone's enjoyment of the game.  Get over it.

I appreciate all you do Jeff, but yesterday you made more tweets about the kneeling than about the game itself.  I completely support Middleton's right to kneel, but many of us go to sports to get away from the struggles of society.  It's our escapism from the hardships of real life.  I know some of it will overlap to some degree, and maybe that's appropriate, but I sure hope that this doesn't become the new norm or our Angels coverage isn't dominated by social commentary.  I know I may get criticized for this point of view, but I believe many folks feel the same way.  

I appreciate all you do Jeff, but yesterday you made more tweets about the kneeling than about the game itself.  I completely support Middleton's right to kneel, but many of us go to sports to get away from the struggles of society.  It's our escapism from the hardships of real life.  I know some of it will overlap to some degree, and maybe that's appropriate, but I sure hope that this doesn't become the new norm or our Angels coverage isn't dominated by social commentary.  I know I may get criticized for this point of view, but I believe many folks feel the same way.  

I appreciate all you do Jeff, but yesterday you made more tweets about the kneeling than about the game itself.  I completely support Middleton's right to kneel, but many of us go to sports to get away from the struggles of society.  It's our escapism from the hardships of real life.  I know some of it will overlap to some degree, and maybe that's appropriate, but I sure hope that this doesn't become the new norm or our Angels coverage isn't dominated by social commentary.  I know I may get criticized for this point of view, but I believe many folks feel the same way.  

Thanks halonatic ... to each his own I guess.  Not to get into a tit for tat, but between posts about Middleton kneeling, Giant player kneeling, and retweets most of yesterday's commentary was more about kneeling than the game.  I mean, after all, it is only the first real game (albeit an exhibition) since the pandemic. I guess that's not a big deal.  And professional players have been kneeling during the anthem for the past two years, so it's not like it's new.  Granted, I acknowledge the BLM protest have brought new life to the debate (and I agree with the majority of BLM's political objectives ... hell, I even have a PhD in political science and one of my areas of study was race relations in the US), but I guess I seek sports out to watch and read about sports.  If that makes me a snowflake so be it.  

I appreciate all you do Jeff, but yesterday you made more tweets about the kneeling than about the game itself.  I completely support Middleton's right to kneel, but many of us go to sports to get away from the struggles of society.  It's our escapism from the hardships of real life.  I know some of it will overlap to some degree, and maybe that's appropriate, but I sure hope that this doesn't become the new norm or our Angels coverage isn't dominated by social commentary.  I know I may get criticized for this point of view, but I believe many folks feel the same way.  

How much of the early success of Bundy, Barria, Suarez, Cole, and Andreise have to do with Calloway?  I know many on here gave up on Barria and Suarez to some extent (I know I did), it's still important to remember both are still younger than the average double A player.  If just one or two of the above was having a good spring I wouldn't think anything of it.  But, when all of them are off to their best starts of their career that has to be more than a coincidence.  I am expecting at least one if not more will tale off eventually, but considering how week our pitching core is it is the one position where we needed to see a strong start.  Once upon a time Barria and Suarez where projected to be solid number fours, and the wheels completely came off last year.  But I also keep forgetting how young both are and both could still develop to be solid rotation pieces.  And once upon a time Bundy was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.    I do not expect Canning to pitch this year, and fully anticipate him getting Tommy John, which means we have to trade for a front line pitcher at some point.  Nevertheless,  the hot start by all the guys who were angling for a spot in the bottom half of our rotation has me encouraged.  If their success has to do with Calloway, then that means it will probably maintain, to at least some extent, into the regular season.  

Freudian  slip?

I subscribe to BA and have a few thoughts on the rankings. 
1. We have a lot of young pitchers with a tone of upside.  Guys like Aquino, Franco, Pina, Soriano (besides his TJ but he'll be back), Yan, Koch, Holmes, and Rivera.  It should be interesting to watch their development. 
2. I am still surprised that Ortega was not drafted in the rule 5 draft.  When he wasn't, I figured there was something about him that wasn't made public yet.  Apparently BA doesn't know either. 
3. I am surprised Jose Rodriguez (and Matt Ball to a lesser extent) made the list.  Are either more project-able than Trent Deveaux or Davis Daniel?  
4. I thought Aaron Hernandez would be a bit higher, and although I believe Orlando should be on the list I do not think he's the 18th best prospect. 
5. There is a clear bias towards fringe guys in AA or AAA than really high upside raw guys in low single A.  

I subscribe to BA and have a few thoughts on the rankings. 
1. We have a lot of young pitchers with a tone of upside.  Guys like Aquino, Franco, Pina, Soriano (besides his TJ but he'll be back), Yan, Koch, Holmes, and Rivera.  It should be interesting to watch their development. 
2. I am still surprised that Ortega was not drafted in the rule 5 draft.  When he wasn't, I figured there was something about him that wasn't made public yet.  Apparently BA doesn't know either. 
3. I am surprised Jose Rodriguez (and Matt Ball to a lesser extent) made the list.  Are either more project-able than Trent Deveaux or Davis Daniel?  
4. I thought Aaron Hernandez would be a bit higher, and although I believe Orlando should be on the list I do not think he's the 18th best prospect. 
5. There is a clear bias towards fringe guys in AA or AAA than really high upside raw guys in low single A.  

The truth be told our system is flooded with high ceiling guys.  There are three guys alone I can picture being potential top 100 players by mid-year if their season goes right (not including Adell and Marsh).  If Rodriguez has a strong start and is moved to AA by the all-star break (which BA projects to happen), then he could sneak into the top 100.  His tools are off the charts.  If Adams starts off strong, he'll jump in also.  I also believe Soriano could break into the upper-half of the top 100 with a strong start as well.   Nevertheless I expect at least two of the three to have the type of year, because there are a lot of positives signs with each one.  
By the end of the year I can see us having another three to four guys climb up the rankings.  We could see Jackson, Vera, Kochanwicz, and maybe even Pyris, if he has a big year.  In addition, there are a handful of true wild card guys who the organization holds in high regard but are still very raw.  Guys like William Holmes, Knowles, Treveaux, Daniel, Bonilla, Pina, Placencia, and Steward Aquino.  BA just released a TOP 10 prospect chat for the Angels, and said very complementary things about Holmes, Pina, and Aquino.  
I believe if Eppler really uses this draft to pick high-up side pitchers in the top 4 rounds (obviously not round 2) we could have one of the better systems in baseball next year.  Granted, maybe I am looking a the state of our system very optimistically, because injuries could persist with a lot of these guys and some could just flame out.  But hell, even if half of them pan out then the Angels will have a steady supply of talent coming from their farm beginning with Adell this year.  

The truth be told our system is flooded with high ceiling guys.  There are three guys alone I can picture being potential top 100 players by mid-year if their season goes right (not including Adell and Marsh).  If Rodriguez has a strong start and is moved to AA by the all-star break (which BA projects to happen), then he could sneak into the top 100.  His tools are off the charts.  If Adams starts off strong, he'll jump in also.  I also believe Soriano could break into the upper-half of the top 100 with a strong start as well.   Nevertheless I expect at least two of the three to have the type of year, because there are a lot of positives signs with each one.  
By the end of the year I can see us having another three to four guys climb up the rankings.  We could see Jackson, Vera, Kochanwicz, and maybe even Pyris, if he has a big year.  In addition, there are a handful of true wild card guys who the organization holds in high regard but are still very raw.  Guys like William Holmes, Knowles, Treveaux, Daniel, Bonilla, Pina, Placencia, and Steward Aquino.  BA just released a TOP 10 prospect chat for the Angels, and said very complementary things about Holmes, Pina, and Aquino.  
I believe if Eppler really uses this draft to pick high-up side pitchers in the top 4 rounds (obviously not round 2) we could have one of the better systems in baseball next year.  Granted, maybe I am looking a the state of our system very optimistically, because injuries could persist with a lot of these guys and some could just flame out.  But hell, even if half of them pan out then the Angels will have a steady supply of talent coming from their farm beginning with Adell this year.  

I would easily rather overpay than give up the prospects (granted it is not my money).    But, long term sustainability through any program comes from the farm. And money will not negate a bad farm, but very good farm can negate dead money.  

We've had a lot of negativity lately so I felt like putting on the rosy glasses and being a blind superfan for a few minutes. 
Let me preface this by saying I'm not an analytics nerd like some here, so I'm not going to draw up some novel using graphs and spin rates and launch angles. I will however simplify things using fWAR. I want to state I in NO WAY believe WAR equates directly to wins. But I'm doing this anyway.
Now, Fletcher has stated many times before how the majority of improvement comes from within. So I'm going to use WAR to see, realistically how this team (without Rendon, Bundy, Teheran, or Castro) can improve. I will not be using any fangraphs projection systems because fuck you. Again, I'm aware that WAR doesn't quite work this way but it's the simplest way to project things from a fans standpoint and also fuck you.
Anyway, I'm just going to look at the major players and how many "wins" they can add over last year. I won't do this for every reliever.
Trout: Trout missed the final month of the year. I think it's safe to say if he played that final month, he would have been worth 1 more win. So that's a +1.
Upton: Upton is a big key to the success of the team in 2020. Upton was injured and missed more than half the year. He was worth -0.2 fWAR. IF he's healthy, he's one of the most consistent players in baseball. However, I'm going to be conservative here and say he only adds 2 wins over 2019. A 1.8 WAR is quite low for him based on his career numbers but I don't want to be entirely unrealistic. So +2.
Simmons: Simmons missed significant time due to injuries and he also saw his offensive numbers drop significantly. I could go one of two was here: Either he has one of the best years of his career playing for a contract, or he stays mostly healthy but continues to decline with the bat. For the sake of being unbiased, I'm going to go with the latter. I think he'll play 20-30 more games, but his hitting will stay the same. He was worth 1.7 fWAR in 2019, so I'm giving him 1 more win for 2020. So +1
Ohtani: Obviously missed time and didn't throw a single pitch. His offense was very good, but not as good as 2018. Getting him back on the mound will be great, but there's no telling what we're going to get. He was worth 1.8 fWAR in 2019, so I'm going to have him match his rookie year of 2.8. So +1.
Heaney: His health is obviously the biggest issue. I think he will pitch better, but I don't think he eclipses 150 innings. Ultimately I see another win at best. +1
Canning: I'm expecting big things from Canning this year, but I'm going to hold those expectations back here. I think he will pitch more, but he may not hit more than 150 innings. So like Heaney, a win at best over 2019. +1
The bullpen: Getting Middleton back is huge. Last year, our pen was worth 2.5 WAR, which was good for 16th in MLB and 9th in the AL. I think the pen could improve a lot, but I'm going to be conservative and add 1 win, which in 2019 would have made us 8th in the AL. +1
The young starters: I'm talking our main depth here. Sandoval, Barria, Suarez, and Peters. Let's face it, most, if not all of these guys will see innings in 2020. In 2019 they were worth -1.5 WAR. It was bad. They will improve. This is an easy +1.
Right field: Losing Kole sucks, but he was only worth 2.5 WAR in 2019. Goodwin was worth 1.9 WAR. I think between him and Adell, it will be a wash. +0
Pujols, Stassi, La Stella, Fletcher, Rengifo, Ward, Thaiss: I put these all together because I don't see much change one way or another with them individually. Together, they were worth 5.7 WAR. I see Fletcher staying about the same, maybe adding a bit. Pujols might lose a bit but nothing significant. I think La Stella goes down, Rengifo and Thaiss go up. Ward stays about the same. Stassi is the make-or-break here, which is hilarious. He was just awful in 2019, being worth -0.3 WAR in just 147 PA's. I'm going to assume he is better than that and add a win. A 0.3 WAR from Stassi is not a huge expectation. +1.
So the total comes to +10 wins, which brings the current roster minus this year's additions up to 82 wins. You'll notice I've neglected to mention the loss of Skaggs, but I think that's offset by the loss of Cahill and Harvey. I went to Hofstra.
So we're at 82 wins. Now let's factor in our additions this off-season.
Rendon: Rendon was worth 7 WAR in 2019, 6.2 in 2018, and 6.7 in 2017. I think 6 wins is a safe prediction. +6
Bundy: 2.5 WAR in 2019, 1.0 WAR in 2018, 2.8 in 2017. The average of those 3 years is 2.1. So I'll say +2
Teheran: 1.6 WAR in 2019. I'll go with 1.0. +1
Castro: 1.6 WAR in 2019 and was a perennial 2+ WAR catcher for Houston. I'll go conservative again and say +1.
So 82+10 =92. 
Tl:dr I'm a fuckin genious and this team can win 92 games in 2020 even looking at everything conservatively. A few things go our way and we're in the 95+ range. 
Positivity! 

I think we're close to 90 wins on paper right now.  But the range on either side of that is fairly broad. 
things the team has going for it:
- strong core on offense that should be one of the best units in the league.  
- offensive depth particularly in the IF.  Pretty much every IF position has a solid backup if someone gets hurt.  They can't sustain an injury to Rendon but there are at least solid to above average players as redundancy everywhere else.  In the OF, the same holds true of Trout who just needs to be on the field but I think Adell and Marsh could fill in well for anyone else.   
- likely a solid bullpen.  Not flashy 
- great defense.  
- a strong coaching unit.  
things they don't:
- a mediocre at best starting rotation which will rely on guys who have either been recently injured or not great as well as a bunch of kids with potential.  There should be enough depth to make it work but it could go wrong real fast.  It needs one more solid contributer to really make it a solid middle of the pack unit.  
things that could go right:
- the team doesn't suffer a rash of injuries to key players like Simmons, Upton, Trout, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning etc.  
- La Stella is the same guy he was last year
- Canning turns a corner 
- Thaiss becomes an everyday player and displace Albert's at bats at 1b/DH (in conjunction with La Stella).  
- Rengifo becomes an everyday guy even if he doesn't play everyday which gives Maddon the flexibility to move Fletch around.  Particularly to the OF in case Goodwin, Adell, Marsh and Upton don't perform as expected.  
- Bundy and Teheran perform a little better than expected in an environment conducive to such 
- Adell and Marsh crush AAA and are just waiting ringside for the tag in.  
- Middleton finds his 2018 form and heads on that trajectory.  Buttrey has less innings stress and become elite.  Robles stays the same.  Noe and Cam pretty much hold serve.  One or two of Anderson, Cole, Bard, Keller Markel, and Milner turn a corner and become very good.  Overall, the unit becomes elite and locks down games from the 6th inning.  
- Ward, Walsh, Herm provide solid contributions in short spurts.  
- One of Barria, Suarez or Sandoval turns a corner and becomes a solid mid to back end rotation piece.  
- Andrew Heaney throws 170 innings.  
- Stassi and Castro are not black holes at the plate.  
Things that could go wrong:
- key injuries
- two or less of the above happen
I thing the range of outcomes is anywhere from 81 to 95 wins.  

I believe if La Stella has a hot start, he's the one who will get traded.  I am beginning to think Rengifo may be as much of an untouchable as Fletcher.  If Rengifo takes off the way Fletcher did, then I see us trading La Stella and letting Simba walk during free agency.  Unless we trade for someone controllable like Boyd, we are going to be a couple starters short again next year when FA approaches.  We're going to need the Simba money allocated elsewhere.

93-95 is a little optimistic...it'd mean everything breaks our way. i.e. the things we take as givens (Rendon & Trout) stay that way. It'd also mean the things we are hopeful for (bounce-back years from Upton, Simmons, Ohtani, Adell is at least as productive as Calhoun, and Teheran and Bundy are indeed diamonds in the rough) go the way we hope.
But I do like where your mind is... 👍

I would also add a +2 WAR for a healthy Upton, a +6 WAR for Rendon, and a +2 WAR for Buttrey and Middleton collectively.  I think we have a 90 win team without Keuchel and a 93-95 win team with Keuchel.  

Hey, I am not advocating it, but this is what I believe to be true.  I hope I am wrong and would love to bring in Keuchel (I've been on the sign Keuchel bandwagon since July when I argued he was a good pick up for the Braves).  But, without him, I believe we are a 90 win team already.  I think between Ohtani coming back (120 innings) and the 320 innings between Tehran and Bundy we will be dramatically improved.  Now, we aren't built for the playoffs and will be paring a #4 against a #1 or #2 every game, but we are built currently for a wildcard run, especially with the inclusion of Rendon.  I also believe if we use a designated starter for both Tehran and Bundy we could even improve upon last year's numbers for both of them.