jessecrall

Yeah, it's interesting that baseball economic discourse tends to come down to "Owners Vs. Players" whereas minor leaguers and stadium/club employees are the ones who are truly getting screwed these days. 

Kinda what they’d doing now.  Basically not hamstring the team going forward and wait for the farm to be ready to produce.  Oh and if you can buy out Albert ok.  

Eppler & Co. might be betting on prospects being ready sooner than we expect which could make 3-year deals unappealing. The 2021 lineup could very well be:
Jones - 2B
Marsh - RF
Trout - CF
Ohtani - DH
Adell - LF
Upton - 1B
Simmons - SS
Zero Idea- C
Fletcher/Rengifo - 3B
Plus: Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Suarez, Barria, Soriano & Sandoval in line.
Maybe Simmons doesn't get extended, Trout probably does, Adams & Knowles are knocking on the door...I imagine one or two of the above spots are taken up by a free agent or major trade acquisition. But the plan likely involves a lot of now-18-22-year-old players Eppler expects to be both productive and inexpensive and he doesn't seem to show any willingness to delay their arrival just to win a few extra games this year. The aggressive promotions of guys like Adell, Canning and Jones are telling. 

This team has the best hitter, best fielder and sole two-way player in baseball. Even if they fall short of the playoffs, they're certainly watchable.

The Angels won 80 games last year with catastrophic pitching injuries. They've improved their depth considerably without taking on long-term contracts or sacrificing their farm. As much as I'd love Kikuchi or Corbin or Realmuto in the short-term, they're currently an 85-win team on paper and in position to be even better in 2020. That isn't a bad offseason by any means.

The Angels won 80 games last year with catastrophic pitching injuries. They've improved their depth considerably without taking on long-term contracts or sacrificing their farm. As much as I'd love Kikuchi or Corbin or Realmuto in the short-term, they're currently an 85-win team on paper and in position to be even better in 2020. That isn't a bad offseason by any means.

The Angels won 80 games last year with catastrophic pitching injuries. They've improved their depth considerably without taking on long-term contracts or sacrificing their farm. As much as I'd love Kikuchi or Corbin or Realmuto in the short-term, they're currently an 85-win team on paper and in position to be even better in 2020. That isn't a bad offseason by any means.

if?

David Fletcher is better than Josh Harrison. And younger. And under team control.

David Fletcher is better than Josh Harrison. And younger. And under team control.

This team has the best hitter, best fielder and sole two-way player in baseball. Even if they fall short of the playoffs, they're certainly watchable.

Can’t wait for Ohtani to take him yard in first matchup. 

Would love nothing more than for Eppler to step in again and cock-block Jerry......

Per the LA Times, Grandal rejected a 4/60 offer from the Mets before they went with Ramos. So I guess that's the 4-year offer we've heard about...Bad news is that apparently, he felt secure enough to reject such an offer (unless he really didn't want to play for the Mets...understandable). Good news is that one of the big buyers is off the table and Grandal's prospects might be dimming. 
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/rumors-grandal-mets-dodgers-tigers-castellanos.html

There should be a law that says if you call a broad weird-looking on a forum, you gotta post a recent photo of yourself.

There should be a law that says if you call a broad weird-looking on a forum, you gotta post a recent photo of yourself.

@floplag But Houston just won 103 games (with a 109 win pythag) because they have a ton of "decent regulars." They had 4 guys put up between 5-7 WAR, 2 of which they developed (Bregman & Altuve) and 2 for whom they traded (Verlander & Cole). Beyond that, Charlie Morton was their best player at 3.5 WAR. They won because they had a lot of decent starting players, good relievers, bench guys who were solid...the Angels gave a ton of innings and at bats to sub-replacement level players and below average regulars. The Astros didn't. If Jahmai Jones, Jose Suarez, Brandon Marsh and Patrick Sandoval become 2-3 WAR guys under team control and Adell and Canning are little better, that's great. That's the foundation of a contender with Trout, Simmons & Ohtani at the top. You don't need these guys to all become stars. If they did, the Angels would win 120 games a year.

There should be a law that says if you call a broad weird-looking on a forum, you gotta post a recent photo of yourself.

This information comes from a member of an organization that has chosen not to be involved in the Kikuchi bidding. He's just relaying what their front office believes. The bidding isn't as aggressive as some other international free agents, and they think if anyone has the inside track at signing him, circumstantially, it's the Angels. And there are a lot of reasons for this. They know the two sides have been in contact at least once, and while they've made it clear all teams are welcome to bid, there's still a belief that Kikuchi would prefer to stay out West. Then there's need, money and Japanese rapport to consider, all of which the Angels have.
In fact, I'll even go one further and say that many in the business believe Billy Eppler had more to do with the Ohtani signing than anything. There was a solid 5+ year period from about 2008 and beyond when Billy Eppler spent more time in Japan than any front office executive. The teams out there are well aware of who he is and he's built and fostered great connections and relationships. After signing Ohtani, Eppler didn't have to go to Japan. He's a major league executive, this all could have been done over the phone. But one of the things that's so special about Eppler (according to other sources) is how humble he is. You'd think as a member of the Yankees, he would've come in all high and mighty, but instead, when he spoke with Japanese teams, he asked questions and wanted to learn what they did and why. 
His willingnes to move to a six man rotation is no coincidence. His understanding of Japanese team building and preparation has been integrated into the Angels system. His hiring of Doug White and promoting Jeremy Reed all fit into what he saw in Japan. 
And there's a lot more back story here that I won't get into it, and a lot of it, I still don't know or understand. But there's every reason for other teams to believe the Angels may be favored in the Kikuchi negotiations. 

There should be a law that says if you call a broad weird-looking on a forum, you gotta post a recent photo of yourself.

There should be a law that says if you call a broad weird-looking on a forum, you gotta post a recent photo of yourself.

There should be a law that says if you call a broad weird-looking on a forum, you gotta post a recent photo of yourself.

David Fletcher wasn't highly touted at all and he put up 2 WAR in half a season. Fangraphs, as good a public source as any, had him outside the Angels top-20 before the season. Maybe he goes backward from here but he's already exceeded expectations. It's the sign of a very healthy organization when you're getting contributions from unlikely sources in addition to your first-round picks.

There should be a law that says if you call a broad weird-looking on a forum, you gotta post a recent photo of yourself.

There are some who are disappointed with Eppler's relatively modest off-season so far: he didn't sign any big name free agents, whether intentionally or because they simply wanted to play elsewhere. No Corbin, Ramos, Happ, Eovaldi, Morton, Donaldson, Familia, etc - all players that would have significantly improved the team. Instead we got a strange group of players in  Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, Justin Bour, Jonathan Lucroy, and Kevan Smith--not to mention his usual few clean peanuts.
Now the offseason isn't over. The two biggest fish--Bryce Harper and Manny Machado--remain on the board, as well as the top free agent catcher, Yasmani Grandal, and top reliever, Craig Kimbrel. There are alsoquite a few other interesting options such as David Robertson, Jed Lowrie, Dallas Keuchel, Mike Moustakas, Asdrubal Cabrera, Marwin Gonzalez, DJ Le Mahieu, Brian Dozier, etc. And of course there's Kikuchi.
But the Angels, presumably, only have another $10-15M to spend. That pretty much prices them out of Harper, Machado, and Keuchel. Kimbrel seems unlikely, and if Grandal still expects 4/$60M+, he won't be donning an Angels uniform. Maybe the Angels take a flier on a reliever as well as an infielder, although it is also possible they are basically set with what they have.
Eppler has been known to surprise us (e.g. the Andrelton Simmons trade). But the moves so far tell us quite a bit about what  his plan is. Consider that they are all one-year deals for players mostly coming off down years, who are solid bets to provide decent returns, but also with small chances of being huge bargains if they rediscover former glories. In other words, they aren't the type of players that you acquire if you are dead-set on competing in 2019; they are the type of players you acquire if your focus is on the future and are filling holes in the mean-time, yet also don't want to write off your chances of competing in 2019. In other words, they are the type of players that you can hope will surprise, but probably shoudn't expect to.
If Eppler was focusing on the so-called "Trout Window" of 2019-20, he'd have gone hard after a more reliable starter--if not Corbin, then certainly Keuchel or Happ. He'd have signed at least one elite reliever, and have upgraded the offense in some significant way - either offering more to Ramos or signing Grandal. He also could have traded some of their prospect capital for further upgrades. A few other tweaks and the team could have been a good bet for 90 wins. Yes, it would have pushed the budget up higher, but he could have done so while staying under the salary cap.
But the problem with that approach is that while it makes the team better over the next few years, it lessens the chances of long-term success through tying up funds in more good but non-premium players (Keuchel being a prime example). The Angels already have a near-term salary problem, with $80M owed to three players in 2019 (Trout, Pujols, Upton), $84M to the same three in 2020 (plus another $15M to Simmons, to make it $100M for four), and if we assume that Trout is extended for $40M/year and Simmons for $20M/yr starting in 2021, that's $113M for four players in 2021. That's also the year Tyler Skaggs hits free agency and Shohei Ohtani has his first arbitration year. Thankfully Cozart ($12.67M/yr) comes off the books, so that helps a bit.
In 2022, the Angels will (hopefully) be paying Trout, Simmons, and Upton something like $90M, but then Upton comes off the books, but then you have to factor in extensions for various players, rising arbitration, etc. 
Fielding a competitive baseball team is expensive. Unless you're willing to spend $200M+ a year, you need to be savvy and try to fill as much of your roster with low-cost talent. The best way to do that is through farm development. You focus on growing talent from within, then you extend the best of that talent, and augment the team through free agency and trades. But you protect that farm talent as best you can, because it is the source of your low-cost talent. 
The temptation for many a GM is to trade that talent for "Proven Veterans." Sometimes this is the right thing to do (e.g. Simmons), but sometimes it is devastating, both by leaving the farm barren of talent and requiring more money spent on free agency, and you end up with crippling albatrosses like Wells, Pujols, and Hamilton.
Back to 2019. What I see Eppler doing is focusing on the 2020s. He hopes to be competitive in 2019--that's why he did spend some money, rather than just "playing the kids." But he refuses to dip into the quickly improving--but still delicate--farm system. The Angels, by general consensus, have a farm system ranked somewhere around 10th in the majors. A big trade or two could quickly set them back to around 20th. Continued careful cultivation for another year or two puts them in the top 5. 
Now the farm rankings aren't important - they are rather subjective and conjectural, after all. But what they represent is the point: the quantity and quality of talent. The farm system is getting riper year by year, but isn't quite there yet. In another year or so, it will really start bearing fruit as players like Canning, Suarez, Thaiss, Rengifo, Adell, Marsh, Jones, and Sandoval start contributing on the major league level. Further waves include Soriano, C Rodriguez, Hernandez, Bradish, Jackson, Knowles, Adams, Deveaux, and Maitan.
Last year we saw rookies such as Ohtani, Barria, Anderson, Buttrey, Fletcher, Ward, and Hermosillo. Most of these guys will get better in 2019, when we'll see Canning, Suarez, Rengifo, and probably Thaiss and Adell. In 2020 we'll see Marsh, Jones, Sandoval, and probably others. In other words, each year will see the graduation of promising young talent, with a cumulative effect of both increasing the talent in Anaheim, and also decreasing the need for higher price free agents. 
Eppler knows this, and doesn't want to a) trade this talent away, and b) block the talent with older, more expensive and lower upside players.
Now obviously there's a balance. It is easy to overrate prospects, and probably only a few of the guys I mentioned will become stars, a few more impact players, some quality regulars, and a bunch will be either bench players or minor league flame-outs. But again, that talent pool represents the priceless commodity of "low-cost, high-upside talent" and it has to be protected.
The plan for 2019 is, again, to try to field a wildcard-capable team, but not at the expense of the future. My guess is that Eppler looks at the AL and thinks, "I can either spend big and trade away talent and improve my chances of making a wildcard but not win the division, or spend less, keep the talent, and still have a decent shot at a wildcard." In other words, the Angels almost certainly couldn't seriously compete for the division or be a lock for the playoffs in 2019, and the cost to simply improve wildcard chances in the short term is just too great, and too debilitating to the franchise in the long-term.
2020 will be a further step forward, with more of that young talent graduating and maturing. By 2021 that young talent should be really starting to flourish and be the core of the 25-man roster. In fact, I could see a 2021 team that is comprised mostly of players below age 28, except for a few notable exceptions: Trout, Simmons, possibly Upton, maybe one of Skaggs or Heaney, a few others. 
So the Eppler plan is to continue strengthening the farm, while retooling in the majors in ways that give the team a chance to compete over the next couple years, but with the eye of turning this franchise into a farm-driven powerhouse in the 2020s.
Its a good plan, but requires patience.