jessecrall

Considering that Bauer would likely cost as much in prospect capital as Realmuto (both are 27 year olds coming of career years with 2 years of team control remaining), I'd rather have JT. He's less of an injury risk, there are more FA starters than catchers available and he doesn't leave streaks of douchery everywhere he goes.

12 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

We tried that approach this year.  You can survive with average starters, but if they can’t make it through 5 innings, even a good bullpen is going to look like crap. Pretending that the bullpen is the problem and the rotation is mostly fine is about the most delusional thing I can imagine a fan thinking, and that’s saying something considering how far we as fans tend to be adrift from reality in our biases. 

I said health and depth are bigger concerns than landing an ace. I certainly did not say the rotation is mostly fine. 

This team won a World Series with JARROD WASHBURN as its ace. The 2015 Royals had a similarly uninspiring crop of starters. A reliable bullpen and a good defense can make a pretty mediocre collection of starters look better than they are, now more than ever. Health and depth are bigger concerns than landing some front-line ace for $20+ million a year.

I'd be on board with Harper if:

1. Arte was somehow willing to break the bank for Bryce AND extend Trout. Because if he's not willing to do both, I'd obviously rather do the latter and use resources to keep building a strong team with young talent in order to convince Trout to stay. 

2. Harper was willing to move to 1B, at least by 2020. I don't see the point in signing Harper and then trading Adell considering he could very well end up producing at a similar level for a lot less money.

That said, the thought of opposing pitchers having to open a game with Harper-Trout-Ohtani is pretty sweet.

The Angels have managed to take their farm system from 2001 Enron-levels of competence into the top half of the MLB without weakening their major league team during Eppler's tenure. Trust the process, baby.

I'd rank the likelihood of various scenarios in this fashion:

65% shot the Angels release Pujols at some point in 2019 or 2020 and just eat the rest of his contract

20% shot the Angels work out a deal at some point over the next year in which Pujols retires "voluntarily" but the Angels either defer some money or agree to pay him, say, 90% of what he's owed (he won't leave $87 million on the table but he might leave $8 million or take it over a longer period of time to avoid 3 more years of struggling through pain)

14% shot Pujols plays out the rest of his contract.

1% shot Pujols retires entirely on his own volition and leaves all that he's owed on the table. This number goes up the deeper he gets into his deal and/or the worse he plays.

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I absolutely think he'll end up being a .670-.730 OPS hitter in the majors. Expecting him to be a solid hitter is a stretch. He's Macier Izturis-lite.

I like him he's valuable, and I do hope he can be an .800 OPS guy, but I think Ward can end up being a .900 OPS guy like Turner. I want to see what he can do...

 

Fletcher was a .678 OPS guy last year and put up a 4-WAR pace. A .678 OPS and plus defense at 3rd or 2nd for guy under team control is pretty valuable.

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Fletcher was better with the bat to start with and then did subpar. He slumped with more playing time, but everyone will think he's a .300 hitter because they saw him kick butt at first. He's legitimately a .700 OPS guy in the minors, never showing much until his age 24 season at SLC in 58 games. I like him, but he's a lot closer to Kaleb Cowart or Cliff Pennington for a regular gig.

Ward obviously didn't hit and isn't a plus defender at 3rd yet, but reminds me more of a guy who can turn into a Justin Turner or a Max Muncy type with the bat.

 

You may be right about Ward but Fletcher was basically a little lucky on batted balls early, a little unlucky late. Statcast shows that overall, his quality of contact, walks and strikeout totals suggest that his batting line was true to his abilities (.297 wOBA versus a .293 expected wOBA). I don't think repeating last year's slash line is unlikely.

3 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Why Fletcher and not Ward? It's an open competition, I'd wager.

Because Fletcher played plus defense at two positions last season while Ward was merely average (and projects to be average) at 3B. I agree that it's not settled and Ward probably has a better projected bat but Fletcher held his own at the plate immediately.

26 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

We aren't thinking he'll be the opening day starter at 3B or 2B, correct?

No, I think one of the infield spots is gonna be Fletcher's to lose. 

On 11/24/2018 at 4:16 PM, UndertheHalo said:

I don’t think I’ve ever seen Jones regarded as a 60 hit tool.  

That's where Fangraphs had him at the beginning of the year: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-20-prospects-los-angeles-angels/

Ocasio-Cortez rules and I look forward to voting for her in 2028. *retreats back into lefty El Lay corner*

Jahmai Jones is, what, a year away? He's got a 60 hit tool with gap power and a 60 run; if he can play even average 2B, he's a faster Howie Kendrick with more walks. I wouldn't mess with that even if it means punting a little on 2019. Or you can sign Donaldson if he'll accept a 1-year, high AAV deal and give yourself an extra year to figure out what you have with Jones, Rengifo & Fletcher.

There's a not insignificant chance that Adell is as valuable as Harper by, like, 2021 for a few pennies on the dollar. Much as I'd love to see a first inning of Harper-Trout-Ohtani giving pitchers suicidal thoughts.

26 minutes ago, Lou said:

what do you do for a living?

I was the project manager for an engineering firm but it went under so I'm applying for grad school as a writer and doing mickey mouse jobs in the interim.

As attractive as Realmuto is, I'm leaning in @Dochalo's camp here more and more by the day.

1 hour ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

 

Well, i'm curious what your issues with Shapiro are, and what you use to measure intelligence.

Considering I'm a socialist pushing 30, I think we can fill in the blanks re: Shapiro...as for intelligence, there is no clear measure and someone extremely capable in one aspect of life or understanding will be entirely deficient in others. I think anyone on the political spectrum would agree that much of the great damage in the world occurs when deficient people assume capability.

1 hour ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

I wonder @Schildog and @jessecrall are aware Shapiro graduated summa cum laude at UCLA at age 20, then cum laude at Harvard Law at 23. You don't do that by accident.

 

The dude is wicked smart, as Ben Affleck would say.

I graduated UCLA Phi Beta Kappa. High school was a lot harder. And any smart man knows that credentials do not make for a strong argument.

3 minutes ago, Jason said:

If you are on the left it's likely you won't like most of Shapiro's views and that's fair. Our problem today is we get so caught up arguing with people and trying to defend "our guy" that we don't see our own BS. As stated above, I like Shapiro because he will call out anyone he doesn't agree with or does not carry true conservative values. Many in the Republican party no longer have core conservative values and he has no problem criticizing them for it. It's refreshing because you know his beliefs are more genuine. Most of the other pundits on both the right and left are nothing more than cheerleaders for their team. If more on the right were like him it would be trouble for the left. Fortunately for the left the right still has the likes of Coulter and Hannity. Those are the ones that give the conservatives a bad name. 

Well, I certainly agree with you about Shapiro's belief's being genuine. 

11 minutes ago, Jason said:

This is your guy. I'm glad we have Shapiro

I'd say we're both in some sort of tie for the bottom.

If Shapiro's someone who conservatives prop up as an entertaining thought leader, it gives me hope for the left's future.

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I think it's becoming increasingly more doubtful that the Angels give up a draft pick for any free agent.  Eppler has specifically targeted players in free agency or trade that he wouldn't have to give up a pick for. 

I expect to see him target free agents that won't cost a draft pick, that being Eovaldi, Happ, Kikuchi, Gio Gonzalez, Anibal Sanchez, Cahill, Lynn, Holland, Santana, Pomeranz....

And of that group, the sort that would be the dependable type he's been vocal in pursuing, would narrow it down to Happ, Kikuchi, Gonzalez, Lynn.

And we know that Eppler prefers pitchers that can...

1. Pump heat. 

2. Throw strikes. 

3. Generate ground balls

Lance Lynn kind of fits it, but not perfectly.  Gio Gonzalez also fits it, though again, not perfectly.  The same can be said of J.A. Happ. Yusei Kikuchi absolutely fits this description, pretty much to a "T".  

So Yusei Kikuchi will likely be the first pitcher we target and sign.  And as for the second.....for me, it's a toss up between Gio Gonzalez and Lance Lynn.  But I'm thinking since the rotation will feature three lefties in Skaggs, Heaney and Kikuchi, I'm guessing Eppler will target the righty.  

So Kikuchi and Lance Lynn will be Angels.

If we guess that they'll likely cost around 18 million, that leaves 12 million left to spend on a catcher and 1B/3B.  This is me just throwing crap in the air, but Kurt Suzuki and Mike Moustakas. 

There, nailed it, right?

You're right about Eppler avoiding guys who turned down qualifying offers and it's sound operating procedure considering who've they've landed in the 2nd round...Kikuchi and Suzuki are also on my wish list and since Lynn inexplicably looked like Verlander against Trout, I'll take him on a cheap deal as well. Moustakas, eh...the Angels passed last go around and he just screams "Will collapse any day now." Not to sound like an old school Moneyball scout but he's a slow, bad-body guy with mediocre on base skills. I'd rather have Fletcher at 3rd because he's cheaper and his defense is likely to be a good win better than Moose's. Descalco's still my guy to fill out the infield.

2 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

Wooo. Is white dudes the correct wording? How do you know if they are white? And dudes really? Can you be so insensitive in this time we live in. What a incorrect usage of these words. First I didn't know you spouted such racism, how do you know they identify as white? Secondly dudes, you are misgendering these people with out actually knowing who they are and how they identify I would have thought someone with your level of "wokeness" would know the differences. Just blatant racism, transphobia, and misgenderisms. I can't believe you would even use such hateful speech. How dare you, you should be ashamed. 

Sorry, folks, my grandpa has logged in and he's trying to do comedy.

I'm not sure why prospect discussions degenerate so quickly into absolute statements. There are costs and benefits to trading prospects AND to holding them. You look for opportunities. The Angels internal brass also has different expectations for their players than we do. They might believe that Brandon Marsh is a little more development away from discovering massive power that could turn him into a superstar. They might see something in Jose Suarez's delivery that suggests durability issues down the line. They might look to be aggressive but get turned down by potential trade partners. They might lean conservative but get blown away by another team overvaluing some of the Angels pieces. Who knows? I'd just try avoid blanket beliefs on all this stuff.

Boras mentioned Harper's potential as a 1st baseman and Harper himself worked out willingly at the position during the season. So I suppose it's possible that you sign him, he plays RF for a year and moves to 1B next year when Adell's ready and Pujols is presumably shuffled off into the sunset.

I say "possible" in the same sense that it's possible that I bump into Eva Green at the supermarket and she falls head over heels in love with me. It *could* happen.