jessecrall

3 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

It was back to back postseasons, and not just a fold. He was literally a liability on the field and in the box.  

Cool. I'll take the catcher who was good for 269 games and crappy for 18 and you can have the catcher who's crappy all year long.

1 minute ago, Lou said:

not in the postseason. 

 

I don't get this critique. Do you REALLY think Grandal has the skills and fortitude to succeed as a major league player for 6 months but completely folds because of postseason pressure? I don't buy it. There are reasons to pass on him. Money, age, the draft pick...how he's done in 32 games spread out over 4 seasons is irrelevant. 

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

that obviously doesn't include the postseason 

Brooks Robinson committed 3 errors in one inning during a game in 1971. Shit happens.

10 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think pitch framing is an extremely random stat that is over valued.  Am I mistaken regarding Grandals other defensive metrics ? Runners thrown out ?? Passed balls etc ? 

By defensive runs saved, Grandal's been worth 39 runs above average over the last 3 years, tops among all catchers. That comprises framing (I believe), passed balls, misplays and throwing out runners. Ramos has been 11 runs below average over the same time frame. He also ran a BABIP over 50 points above his career average last season. 

5 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Grandal’s price would have to be low before I’d be interested. Basically, I’m trading a 2nd for him, so what contract would I make that trade for? I think sub-10mil, I’d be okay with it, maybe even 10-12. Even then, though, I wouldn’t love it. 

"A good compromise leaves both parties unhappy." -Larry David, supposedly quoting Henry Clay...I wouldn't love it either, but I also wouldn't love starting a catcher with a ~70 OPS+ like Maldonado or relying on Smith & Briceno. If you can't develop good players at a position, you either have to punt or spend. Again, not sure spending is the BEST way to go, just that Grandal merits consideration.

1 minute ago, UndertheHalo said:

I disagree strongly that Grandal is better then Ramos. 

If they have to sign a catcher, and that may be the best option.  I’d rather have Ramos.  Easily.  Honestly, I’d rather they just some defense first guy who’s capable of putting up a .300ish OBP and put the money into better starters or like Marwin Gonzalez or something. 

Grandal and Ramos are both not great on multi year deals.  But Grandal to me, given his recent performance in the batters boxand step back defensively.  PLUS the comp pick.  No thanks. 

Grandal's an elite pitch framer and he's been the same guy 3 years in a row. Ramos has had 2 good years and two lousy ones over the last 4 years and he's almost as slow as Pujols. For 2 year at $25 mil, sure. For 3 at $36 I'd expect to be burned by the end. Maybe that's worth a 2nd round pick. I'm not saying it isn't, just that I would absolutely bet on Grandal being better for the next 3 years than Ramos.

8 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

They don’t need to give up a comp pick and shouldn’t. The Angels best options are players who don’t have the comp pick attached. 

It depends on cost. Grandal is better than Ramos, more consistent, he's a year younger, he hits well from the left side and while neither one's exactly a burner, he's faster. I wouldn't give up $50 mil AND a draft pick but if his price starts to drop into Ramos' range, I don't see why you wouldn't go for it. I'm not saying this WILL happen or that it isn't a better idea to get a caretaker catcher in a low-risk trade, just that I wouldn't think in absolutes.

4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

According to Crasnick, Wilson Ramos is the currently the Angels' "primary target'".

Not crazy about Ramos but certainly an upgrade. All comes down to money and years. 2/$25m would be great.

If the Angels could get Ramos for 2/$25, I'd become crazy for him. He's projected on Fangraphs to get 3/$36.

The Angels gave so many at bats last year to sub-replacement-level hitters that these kinds of depth moves (Bour, LaStella) could pay surprising dividends if they're even mediocre in 2019.

It's also possible that Ohtani's on track to be HEALTHY by Opening Day but they want to give him additional time to get his swing and timing back before playing consequential games if he misses most of Spring Training.

If Canning, Barria & Suarez show that they can be rotation mainstays and Ohtani's healthy enough to give them ~150 innings in 2020, they could do some real damage for very little money.

14 minutes ago, Second Base said:

That's all I'd be happy with.  Gray has only a single year of control, and it's an expensive year at that.  And he's coming off an absolutely crap performance for the Yankees, despite favorable splits.  Gray is a gamble, and I'm only willing to gamble a good 4th OF.  If another team is legitimately stupid enough to spend an actual prospect getting Sonny Gray, then that's their business. 

I agree with you on not trading anything more than a future reserve although I'm a little higher on Gray. His FIP was 4.17, which is fine and his fastball velocity has held completely steady throughout his career. He was a little overrated in Oakland; some good batted ball luck and a favourable ballpark made a good pitcher look great at times. He's currently a little more talented than his stats but at 1 year of team control, yeah, I wouldn't give up anyone substantial. 

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

So apparently he wants to get it to the top 5 then use financial power... i guess we have our answer on the next few years casue that aint happening anytime soon barring a Trout trade.
You dont jump from 10-12 to 5 in a couple years without losing a lot of games.  

Not necessarily; a lot of their most interesting prospects are toolsy but unproven. If the youngest of those guys (Soriano, Knowles, Jackson, Adams) take steps forward while Adell, Marsh & Jones show they can realize their potential in the MLB, that's probably a fringe-5 system right there. 

This is the most prudent plan. It also means 2019's probably a punt. Which is better than going all in now, getting bounced in a WC game and spending the next decade cleaning up the mess.

2 minutes ago, JarsOfClay said:

I doubt it. Angels seem to have impenetrable loyalty to Pujols. 

And Ohtani was forced to sit for Pujols last year, so I dont see why this year would be different.

Ohtani sat for Pujols to DH because he was pitching on Sundays, had injury issues and had some really ugly at bats against lefties early on. Coming into the season, there was doubt Ohtani could stick as a hitter; his arm was seen as the elite tool. By the end of the year, he was a 150 OPS+ guy who seemed to completely solve his issues against lefties. If he's healthy and does close to what he did next season, the Angels aren't benching him for any reason besides the occasional rest day.

FWIW, Fangraphs had the Angels in a similar position last year, bouncing between 84-88 wins leading up to opening day. Just getting starts from their rotation alone and not having to give at bats to sub-replacement-level disasters should put them on the fringe of contention.

1 minute ago, Sean-Regan said:

Serious question: What defense? Pujols isn’t good at 1B anymore, Kinsler is gone, Cozart has struggled away from SS, and Fletcher seems to be the only positive defensive infielder besides Simmons, obviously. If we expand to outfield, we’re reportedly shopping Calhoun, and Upton is meh. Our defense isn’t necessarily that good as far as I can see outside of Simmons and Trout. 

If Cozart's healthy, I can't imagine him being anything less than "good" at 2B. In a very small sample size, his UZR at 2B was strong and by total zone runs and defensive runs saved, he was fine. Give him a full season there and I wouldn't worry. Fletcher was even better at 3B than he was at 2B, Simmons is money and even Pujols graded out a shade above average at 1B last year. 

5 minutes ago, Angels_Make_Me_Drink said:

I’m not knowledgeable on advanced statistics; why is Keuchel so unpopular? Is he another CJ Wilson? Doesn’t a ground ball pitcher play to our defense? Just curious...

Keuchel is almost 31 and hasn't pitched like an "ace" since 2015. His average fastball is 89 and his defense-independent stats suggest that he's a good, not great pitcher. Which is why giving him a 5 year deal worth, potentially, $100 million is seriously overvaluing what he's expected to do if he loses anything additional on his fastball or misses some time with injuries. I do agree that the Angels defense could make him look better than he is but his groundball and strikeout rates dropped quite  bit last year so...he's just a high risk for a team that doesn't have a ton of disposable income right now.

I think you can basically stay the course AND sign Kikuchi considering he's expected to warrant a 5-6 year deal with a reasonable AAV; that could obviously change but if you can get him for 6/$48 or something, you can solidify your future rotation without draining resources trying to win immediately. 

Kluber. Easier to root for.

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

not happening 

I agree. 

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Realmuto seem like a downright bad idea to me.  How in the heck could anyone justify spending Marsh, Thaiss, Suarez and Deveaux AND 12 million for two years of Realmuto (3 wins per season) when you can save your prospects and spend 3/36 for Ramos and 2 wins per season?

Because Ramos is 4 years older and was a downright bad player in 2017 and 2015. If you could get Realmuto for Marsh, Thaiss and Suarez (not Deveaux or anyone else), I'd probably do it unless the market for Ramos shrunk enough that you could get him for 2 years.

Christian Yelich was seen as a "He'll be great if he starts to elevate more" guy. Same thing was said about Eric Hosmer. One had an MVP season, one was below average. Saying Yelich COULD turn into an MVP with a significant change to an approach that already made him a good major leaguer is not the same thing as trading away four talented prospects because you earnestly believe he WILL be the MVP next season. 

11 minutes ago, ukyah said:

on a team desperately in need of SP,  i just don't seen how trading canning, in any scenario, is a good thing. bring one in to send one out. doesn't make sense to me. i don't think i'm overvaluing canning, he seems like he's got the major league makeup and stuff. combine that with the angels payroll situation, and it seems like he should be a big part of this season's plan.

 

Considering Canning was seen as a potential #3 BEFORE a velocity uptick and a clean bill of health, I think having 6-7 more seasons of him under team control is really, really valuable. 

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

No. I'm realistic. 

We aren't getting Bauer after the year he just had without giving up at least 2-3 of our top guys. 

I misread the question and thought that was what YOU would give up for Bauer, not what Cleveland would ask for. Apologies.

3 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Just Bauer without taking Kipnis? 

Marsh, Canning, Jones, and Suarez.

Are you an Indians fan?