jessecrall

11 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Haha, that was from me. For some reason, Justin Upton doesn't seem that exciting of a comp. An .800 OPS guy with better-than-average power isn't as exciting as the hype surrounding Adell.

The legit hype around Adell, ie the reports from real scouts and journalists as opposed to cheerleaders, is that he has star potential, a developing but still-risky hit tool and currently boasts a 60 future value on the 20-80 scale. He COULD, if all his tools really flourish, do more I suppose, but right now, he has + regular/All Star potential, right in line with what Springer & Upton have amounted to in their careers. That's really good. If he has 4 seasons like that under team control, the Angels will absolutely take that as opposed to worrying that he isn't Trout or Mooookie or whoever.

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

Has Springer's sprint speed deceased.   He started off early on stealing 16 out of 20 bases (80%) in 2015, and then only 20-41 (under 50%) since 2016. 

In 2015, Springer's was 28.8, 2016 it was 28.4 and in 2017 it was 28.0. So that's very consistent, steady decline. Not that sprint speed is perfect metric or anything but yeah, he's probably lost a solid step over the last few years.

Springer was drafted at 21 and didn't hit the majors until he was 24; Upton debuted at 19 and was a very good big league regular at 21. Adell seems to be tracking a little closer to the Upton path, hopefully. If he can basically be a more consistent Upton, I'd be happy.

12 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Is Springer someone who has simply never learned how to steal bases?    He has a rep for being speedy, but the career SB% doesn't bear that out (41-68, 60%).

His sprint speed last year averaged 27.7 feet per second (27 is average, 30 is elite, Trout's usually a little over 29). Justin Upton was at 27.9 so it's pretty good but not necessarily the level of elite basestealers unless you can accelerate quickly or REALLY study pitchers.

Ottavino's gonna want a lot of money for a 33-year-old reliever coming off 1 great season that followed 1 mediocre season that followed 2 injury-marred seasons. Do I want him in a vacuum? Yeah. Do I want him for a multi-year, 8-figure AAV that will tighten money up from other players over the next couple of seasons? Not really.

Yeah, people are seriously overestimating the lure of playing for your hometown team. For one thing, during the season, you're still on the road half the time so what you're really assuming is that Trout's going to base his next contract on 81 game days plus some off-days for a team that plays 40 miles away from his home. As the article says, it's a FACTOR but if Trout was so set on Philly or the east in general, he probably wouldn't have signed the initial extension or he would have made it clear to Eppler & Co. by now that he plans on bouncing. If the Angels are still spinning their wheels after this season and the Phillies are a contender with money to burn, then I'd start to worry.

Also, and granted I'm biased because I've lived in El Lay my entire life, is there a better place to play ball than Southern California? You don't get rainouts, you don't get snow games like the one in Kansas City this year, you don't get that midwestern humidity...How many night games in Anaheim are 75 degrees and clear? Trout loves following bad weather but I doubt he enjoys trying to play in it.

32 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Despite the 100 point OPS difference?

Fletcher's defense will probably cut that gap quite a bit if not entirely for a fraction of the price.

Lowrie I'd like on a 2-year deal. I'd rather have Fletcher at 3rd than Moose.

Owning an MLB team during Arte's tenure is like having bought a beach house in Malibu Colony with cash 15 years ago. Even if you don't actually make significant annual profits between taking in rental income and putting out taxes, insurance, improvements, etc, the value of the house has gone up so much that it's well worth the investment. 

Harper's experience is gonna be so much better in DC than anywhere else. He's an inconsistent player with injury problems and defensive issues. If he signs with DC, he's the hometown hero, the fans will be on his side, they should be really competitive in the near future, he'll make a fortune...You sign with the Yankees or Dodgers or White Sox, you're a hired gun and if you're anything less than GREAT year in, year out, it's gonna be unpleasant. Maybe that doesn't matter to Harper, I dunno. Do you want a nice house on a pleasant street or a mansion below a flight path?

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

Thats not what i said or meant at all.  You truly dont need to convince me of his value, hes everything youve stated and has been so for the last three years while the team played 500 ball.  

They would have played .500 ball with Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Honus Wagner, Roid Bonds, etc etc. Trout and his contract had NOTHING to do with their struggles. Without him, they would have lost 90 games last year. They've been crappy because they had a historically awful farm system (nothing to do with Trout), gave huge contracts to Pujols and Hamilton (nothing to do with Trout) and had catastrophic injuries to their pitching staff (nothing to do with Trout). Signing Trout to an extension won't affect the farm system, won't affect Pujols and it won't affect their pitching staff. It means they won't have $40 million a year to sign someone else. Fine. If the farm produces the way Eppler intends, they won't need to.

1 minute ago, floplag said:

I notice nothing about the team winning in that post though.   

No, you're right. If you want to win, it's a great idea to get rid of the best 20-something player in baseball history. You can probably replace him pretty easily. Replace the best 20-something player. In baseball history. No problem.

Just now, floplag said:

Im not convinced i even want them to.  Thats a truly absurd amount of money for any one player. 
If we are truly tied to a limited budget i dont see how one guy getting 20+% of the total available is a positive unless they commit to exempting him from that budget which i do not think they will do. 

Assuming Trout gets $40 mil a year, he needs to put up about 5 WAR a season to generate surplus value based on the cost of wins on the free agent market. That doesn't include his additional value as a franchise player who is sure to put asses in seats, eyes on the tv and credit card numbers on merchandising sites. Plus, his skill-set and current, sustained level of play suggests that only serious injuries would prevent him from being a valuable player even as he ages. There's risk to giving him $400 million but there's risk to trading him for prospects. There's risk to letting him go and expecting who ever takes over CF to produce and retain fan loyalty. There's risk to getting on an airplane, crossing the street, ordering your steak rare...you need risk in order to thrive and this team has never developed and held a true Hall of Fame talent. Why screw that up because of risk?

Considering he was generally seen as a #3 with health red flags due to overuse when drafted, this is a nice sign. Law in general's been a little higher on our top prospects than most reputable outlets...

24 minutes ago, Second Base said:

One of the things that Scioscia said during that philly.com interview was that Trout was going to look at the direction the Angels are heading before deciding whether or not to sign an extension. 

I think this confirms that a small part of Trout's decision to sign an extension will be the amount of young talent surrounding him and the Angel's willingness to spend to surround him with talent. Ultimately, Mike Trout wants to win. If the Angel's can show him they'll win for the foreseeable future, he will sign an extension. If not, then I gotta believe he's headed to Philadelphia. 

Yeah, and I don't think it's a bad idea on his end to wait another season before worrying about an extension. Much as I'd love to see it get done before Spring Training, Trout holding off a year so 2020 and beyond look clearer wouldn't spell doom by any means. As for Philly specifically, eh, much as I imagine he'd like to be near home, you're still on the road for half the season, most home games don't finish until well after 10:00 pm, Southern California's a beautiful place to play and live (if you have money)...He seems to have that Gwynn-Jeter-Musial vibe of wanting to be the sort of player who gets cheered in every ballpark after a certain point in their career as opposed to carrying the more mercenary vibes of Harper or A-Rod. Just my perception, could be BS.

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Don't mean to pick at you but can't you say the same thing about an owner?  Why is the millionaire player greedy if he thinks he can get $2m more per year but the billionaire owner isn't greedy trying to pay $2m less per year?

 

Yeah, it's interesting that baseball economic discourse tends to come down to "Owners Vs. Players" whereas minor leaguers and stadium/club employees are the ones who are truly getting screwed these days. 

Eppler & Co. might be betting on prospects being ready sooner than we expect which could make 3-year deals unappealing. The 2021 lineup could very well be:

Jones - 2B

Marsh - RF

Trout - CF

Ohtani - DH

Adell - LF

Upton - 1B

Simmons - SS

Zero Idea- C

Fletcher/Rengifo - 3B

Plus: Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Suarez, Barria, Soriano & Sandoval in line.

Maybe Simmons doesn't get extended, Trout probably does, Adams & Knowles are knocking on the door...I imagine one or two of the above spots are taken up by a free agent or major trade acquisition. But the plan likely involves a lot of now-18-22-year-old players Eppler expects to be both productive and inexpensive and he doesn't seem to show any willingness to delay their arrival just to win a few extra games this year. The aggressive promotions of guys like Adell, Canning and Jones are telling. 

The offense was league average last year; when one guy's hitting ~90% better than the league average, you get an awfully big head start. I think it would take catastrophic injuries for them to perform any worse this season.

David Fletcher is better than Josh Harrison. And younger. And under team control.

The Angels won 80 games last year with catastrophic pitching injuries. They've improved their depth considerably without taking on long-term contracts or sacrificing their farm. As much as I'd love Kikuchi or Corbin or Realmuto in the short-term, they're currently an 85-win team on paper and in position to be even better in 2020. That isn't a bad offseason by any means.

This team has the best hitter, best fielder and sole two-way player in baseball. Even if they fall short of the playoffs, they're certainly watchable.

Okay then.

Heyman just tweeted that he's got a deal with Seattle. No terms yet.

Disappointing...hopefully, it's for a Bartolo-sized pile of money.

As badly as Calhoun finished the season, he did have 18 walks in his last 25 games; if he isn't pounding grounders to the right side every other at bat, he should be fine leading off, at least against righties.

9 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

even if he has a decent season he'll be worth more.  Outside of him completely crapping the bed, his value will go up.  I think he'll displace Upton to DH in 2021.  

You don't expect Ohtani to be DHing most of the time in 2021? I imagine Upton could play 1st...