obviously i'm not privy to the inner workings of the padres org, but my feelings are that they are going to wait until the offseason to name a permanent GM and that GM will then most likely fire everyone, except for darren balsley (the pitching coach) and probably the bullpen coach. both are very good coaches. so, i think bud gets fired either in the offseason or very late this season.
edit: i should say that if black and ALL the coaches get fired, the one to hire as pitching coach is darren balsley. that guy has been leo mazzone without the fanfare. an extremely good pitching coach. predating bud black, i should add.