Dave Saltzer

11 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

900k under slot

This is good news. More money to use on later picks so we can go over slot. 

I didn't think that Neto would go that far under slot. Now let's just get him going and developed. A future MIF defense of Neto and Jackson would be quite a potent offense and a decent defense for us.  

On 7/21/2022 at 11:25 AM, Inside Pitch said:

So, a few of us have commented on the average age of the Angels farm teams in recent seasons and how young they were.  In responding to a post about Tamin/Perry, and looking up some of the performances I was surprised to find that in many areas the Angels farm system is even younger this season.

Average age Pitchers 2021/2022

DSL:   17.7/17.4 Youngest group in the league next closest is Marlins at 17.6 (49 teams) Average is 18.6
ACL: 20.4/19.9  Third youngest group in the league Behind two Brewers teams at 19.5 and 19.7.  Average is 21.2
A:      21.7/21.4  Second youngest behing AZ (20.9). League average 21.8
A+:   23.2/23.0 Second youngest behind COL 21.8. League average is 23.2
AA:   24.2/23.4 Youngest group in the league. Average is 24.6


Average age Hitters 2021/2022

DSL: 17.5/17.2  Third youngest group behind the Marlins and Braves at 17.1 out of 49 teams. Average is 17.9
ACL: 19.5/19.8 League average at 19.7
A:     21.5/21.0 Second youngest but right at league average basically of 21.1
A+:   22.8/23.1 Oldest group in the league, average is 22.6
AA:   25.2/24.6 Younger than last year but older than the league average of 24.4

All things considered, that High A team is probably the ugly sister in the bunch.   Also kind of interesting but the influx of draftees might actually make the teams OLDER instead of younger as is almost always the case.

Thank you for this analysis and work. I knew we were a younger system overall, but thank you for providing the evidence.

On 7/21/2022 at 10:37 AM, Inside Pitch said:

I first got into stats because I wanted to validate what I thought my eyes were telling me.  I find it funny when people call me a stat head or used to tell me to "actually watch games".  Not only have I actually played more competitive baseball than those types have watched, the sole reason I turned to stats was my unwillingness to blindly believe what my eyes were telling me.

But yes, minor league evaluation is IMO one of the most inexact and difficult things to gauge in sports.  There is a reason why people will fawn over guys who never get out of AA and even if you get all the shit right, know the parks, know the league tendencies, know the physical tools, know the optimal league age, very few know what's in between the player's ears.  As you said, there are so many variables it's somewhat overwhelming.

More and more teams are creating positions to help guys with the mental aspect of the game -- I'm willing to bet it will be pointed to as the next massive leap forward in player development.

Stats can only tell you so much. As I have always said, not only is it important to know what goes into a stat, it's more important to know what does NOT go into the stat.

With baseball, so much of it is mental. Sure, you can project a player. Hell, with enough AI, projection will become more and more likely. But, it will never, ever, ever tell you what's going on between a player's ears. And with baseball, so much of it is mental that you absolutely NEED true scouting in addition to numerical analysis.

Stats can't tell you if a player is unhappy with a team, dealing with a tough issue at home, doesn't have the discipline to do all the workouts, is only going through the motions and no longer has his heart in it, etc. 

So many teams cut back or eliminated advance scouting thinking that they can "save" money by just doing it online and through TV. Except of course, they lose all the information above. And, no matter how much TV one watches of a team, it won't show the OF defense to see if a hit was more a result of a shift. It won't show you if a player ran through a stop sign by a coach, etc. 

If you look at the teams doing really well right now (not that this is the only reason why they are doing well), most of them have brought back more advance scouting and boosted their scouting departments. Those that have not are generally not doing as well.

A team needs a good blend of analytics and scouting. Spending money on one area doesn't mean spending less in the other. In fact, a well run team should be spending a lot more on both areas.,

Thank you for a good Writeup on the draft. Really liked the additional comments.

17 minutes ago, Tank said:

for those of you in the know, how close is this kid to being major league ready?

@Dave Saltzer @Inside Pitch @Docwaukee

I don't know what the restrictions are on him pitching this year, as he's still recovering from TJ, but I am guessing there are limits that will slow his development a bit. 

With that in mind, I'd guess 2nd half of next year at the earliest. 

Super excited about this pick. He's one of the players I really wanted us to draft, and he could become a great piece in our bullpen. 

We can teach him some command and control to make him a dominant closer. But, one cannot teach 105 mph! He will be fun to watch. 

5 hours ago, Second Base said:

Yeah, your view is shared by most people that know their stuff. I'm higher of Jackson's defense than I reasonably should be. I see him make some impressive reads and plays and get overly giddy. I really do think he can stick at SS. 

With Neto, there's an x factor. I think he plays balls to the wall, which may help him play above his natural athleticism. Personally, from what I've seen, i think he can stick at SS too but is better off at 3B because of his arm and is ability to come in and throw on the run. And I think Jackson is more suited for 2B, where is more about soundness and fluidity, which I think he has. 

I agree that Jackson could hold down SS if that is the path of least resistance to get his bat in the lineup. If there are other easier ways, that's what will happen. He has defensive fluidity and hopefully a powerful batto put in the lineup. 

Neto is more of a true SS from what I've seen. While he has some power, his defense and OB skills are better than Jackson's. 

28 minutes ago, Second Base said:

It's hard to do that when you can't find many "experts" that agree on him. Some think he's going to be a star. Others don't buy it at all. 

But just comparing him to Jeremiah Jackson, I think their power should play out similarly, but Neto should hit for a higher average and get on base more. Defensively, Jackson has better actions but Neto has a better arm.

Neto is the better of the two, but it's decently close because you're talking about two major league caliber starting infielders. 

I would say Jackson has substantially more HR power, a lower BA and OBP, and slightly less defensive ability. Jackson will play based on his bat. I think that ultimately he moves off of SS and Neto sticks there. 

Neto should have higher BA, OBP, and defense. 

As always @taylorblakeward it's a pleasure to read your analysis. I agree that we are most likely taking a pitcher unlass Collier, Parada, or Susac fall to us. I don't see that happening, but one never knows. 

As we discussed, I do think our farm is at a place where we could take a risk on a HS arm. My sense is that Perry will take a more secure bet on a college arm, but I'm glad to see your projection. 

It is interesting to note that I haven't heard anything about Hjeroe with us in the last two weeks. 

Question for those willing to trade Walsh and are down on Marsh: Next year, it is very likely that they will ban the shift. So, how much more valuable would that make any lefty in the lineup? Lefties should all see a spike in BA and righties might see a slight drop with the ideas on the shift that have been discussed.

Eo shouldn't we hold onto lefties who might benefit quite a bit next year? 

I get the need and desire to get all the bat's in the lineup and giving dedicated time to Adell. But, I'm a bit more hesitant to trade away more lefties right now because they will probably benefit a lot more next year. 

No. I checked tonight and was told that they were entirely sold out and won't get anymore in until the end of July. I looked online and there appear to be some youth and toddler sized items available if that is what you are looking for, but was also told that those supplies are very limited. 

Good luck trying to get some. 

1 hour ago, mmc said:

 

It's good to see Jackson getting back to it. I'm sure that there may be a bit of adjustment for him, since he was off for so long, but I'm excited to see what he can produce this season. 

This is a great get Chuck. Very happy to have him here and am looking forward to reading his posts. 

Welcome aboard officially Taylor! 

As you try new things at the stsdium, please add your pictures and reviews. And, please post which meechandise you like most. 

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

that's not a great collection of position players.  Excited to see Crow, Murphy, Silseth, Torres, Erla, Bush and Kerry though.  We're gonna find out pretty quick on Maitan and Soto if they can hang.  

Agreed on Maitan and Soto. This is a big year for them on whether or not they can adjust and produce or are washing out of the system. 

I still think that putting Maitan at 1B and simplifying his game would go a tremendous way to making him a better player all around. 

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

probably our most intriguing roster.  

Blakely, Vera, Placentia, Bonilla, Deveaux, Knowles, Ramirez, Quero.

Albright, Chaney, Garcia, Guanare (pretty much skipping rookie ball), Goff (repeating A ball even though he had a really decent year), Hidalgo, Salvador, Swanda, Von Scoyoc.

They're moving on a lot of these guys pretty quickly.  Albright got 8 innings in the ACL.  

Hope they figured out how to broadcast all levels this year including the ACL.  

 

 

Yes, they really seem to be pushing some guys, both to High-A and Double-A. 

25 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I'm hungry now. 

As well you should be. There is a lot of good food to try and enjoy at the stadium. This is especially nice for season ticket holders so we don't get burned out during a homestand. 

The most challenging part of attending the preview was limiting the samples so that I didn't get stuffed. There were so many items to sample. There are plenty of returning items that are incredible as well, such as the Chorizo nachos in the Diamond Club and the Peruvian Chicken that are incredible! Let's just say no one left the presentation hungry....

On 1/2/2022 at 1:47 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Random thoughts, by level:

AAA: Will Davis Daniel continue his strong performance in AAA? He had a sub-3.00 ERA in both A+ and AA last year, but then struggled in 21 IP in AAA (10.29 ERA). He could be a really strong #4-5 starter for the Angels. And of course, everyone will be watching Reid Detmers and whether he can reduce his HR rate, although that will be difficult in Salt Lake. Brendon Davis is one to watch; unlike Daniel, he kept on performing in AAA, hitting .333/.409/.641 in 31 games. He's really established himself as a decent prospect, and is a darkhorse to grab a major league job next year. And everyone loves Michael Stefanic, comparing him to David Fletcher, but he looks like he's a better hitter.

AA: The two name to watch is obviously Sam Bachman, with the big question being whether he can stick as a starter; I have my doubts. Robinson Pina and Adam Seminaris are two others to keep an eye on; Pina has good stuff and could be a nice reliever. Jeremy Arocho is someone I have my eye on - I love his discipline-speed combo; who knows, maybe he can be a Figgins Lite utility player. I know he's old for a prospect, but you got to root for Braxton Martinez -  he killed the ball last year.

A+: One of the biggest questions going into the year is whether Jordyn Adams can regain his prospect cred. Aside from stats, one important marker is how quickly the Angels call him up to AA; if he's still in A+ into the second half, we could have a problem. One of my favorite prospects is Kyren Paris - if he's healthy, he also could be in AA sometime next season. Similarly with Jeremiah Jackson; I'd really like to see the Angels work on tightening up his swing and having him take more walks. And of course Trent Deveaux and D'Shawn Knowles are still on the radar, but their prospect shine has faded quite a bit. And of course, Ky Bush is one to watch, although his upside may be limited.

A: Here's where we have some guys who could determine whether the Angels farm is truly bad or decent: Arol Vera, Edgar Quero, Alexander Ramirez, Jack Kochanowicz, Alejandro Hidalgo, etc.

Rookie: Similarly with above, but this time Mason Albright, Denzer Guzman, Adrian Placencia, Werner Blakey, David Calabrese, and others. Also, we have a bunch of "fallen prospects" like William Holmes, Erik Rivera, Sadrac Franco, Gabriel Tapia, etc.

I'm sure I'm missing lots of guys, but that's just a sampling to get the conversation started.

AJ, some really good thoughts here.

In response, I see Daniel as being far better off in relief than as a starter. We might as well keep him as a starter for now, but he could become a very good part of a bullpen if we moved him there. Agree about Davis and Detmers. Davis could become a late blooming super utility player. And, even though they ended the season in Anaheim, Warren and Wantz will probably start the season on the SLK shuttle bus.

In AA, I'd also keep an eye on Zach Linginfelter, Jack Dashwood, and Brent Killam in terms of pitchers. Again, all could be serviceable bullpen arms. Offensively, I'm still watching Orlando Martinez. Braxton Martinez will be 28 at the start of next season. An impressive late showing, but probably not enough to get too long a look.

A+ Agreed Adams has to really make a big step here to retain his status. Agree on most everything else you said, although Jeremiah Jackson is one where I'd add that they will find a spot for him if his bat pans out (which I'm still hearing good things about from sources). He could stay at SS, move to 3B, 2B or even move to the outfield. 

Just some thoughts for discussion.

It's a new year, and time for a new thread. And, more importantly, we might as well start compiling our Top Prospect List because who knows will the CBA will be renewed and then how insane it will be once it is renewed. 

Let's have at it, and more importantly, let's have a good season for all of our prospects, where they get in a full season's worth of work and development. I'm looking forward to several taking big steps forward and others making a bit of a bounce back.

RIP Jim Fregosi, Jr. 

It was a pleasure getting to know you and learning from you as a scout. You were as kind to my sons as your father, taking the time to teach them the finer points of the game. I enjoyed all the stories you shared with me. 

This was one of your favorite pieces. Although it's about your dad, I would write many of the same compliments about you. 

https://angelswinblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/please-call-me-jim.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+Angelswin+(AngelsWin.com+Today)&m=1

22 hours ago, FromJapan said:

In June 2018 when the Angels promoted Fletcher to Major Leagues, there was an introductory article appeared in the Japanese sports media.
The outline is:
 Utility infielder with high batting average
 He's from Orange County, the home of the Angels
 Younger brother Dominic is also a baseball player

Reference:
"Baseball Channel" posted on June 15, 2018 (in Japanese)
https://www.baseballchannel.jp/mlb/49490/

Fletcher has become more popular in Japan this year, because Fletcher and Ohtani have formed a leadoff and bat 2nd combination of starting lineup.
Also, pictures of his wedding are well known.

-------------------------

Although the expression itself, blue-collar, is exist in Japanese just the same, "blue-collar" player, the color expressions that represent the characteristics of players in this article, are not used for baseball players in Japan.

In Japan, we sometimes use the word "ibushi-gin", a color like antique sterling silver, for another type of the player. "Ibushi-gin player" means a veteran who is not flashy but has the ability to play an active role in important situations.

Thank you for sharing this. 

Thanks for writing this. I always enjoy reading the summaries. 

11 hours ago, pikichin said:

@Chuckster70

Thank you so much for interviewing me and for writing such a wonderful article. It was an invaluable experience.
The power that Ohtani san has is tremendous. I look forward to seeing him play more and bring brighter news!

Thank you for doing such a great job on the interview! It was a very compelling and fun story to write! I hope you have the opportunity someday to meet Ohtani and continue to support him as a fan for many, many years. We are all so lucky to be witnessing such a spectacular performance from him this year.

On 9/3/2021 at 12:47 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Great article and interview, Chuck. Shohei has been all that we hoped for and more. I think before the season I suggested that the absolute best-case scenario for him this year as a two-way player was 7-8 WAR, but I'd be OK with 4 and very happy with 5-6. He's at 7.1 according to Fangraphs and 7.7 for BR. If he continues to pitch well and has another hot streak in hitting he should be able to surpass 8 and 9, respectively. Just unbelievable.

Anyhow, I can't wait to see him play alongside a healthy Trout and Rendon next year. 

As a side note, I'd love to see the Angels start their season in Japan for a three-game series. I mean, why not?

That would be very cool. Baseball would do well by expanding the global market, and what better way to do that than with someone with such international appeal. 

What an amazing story for her. She is absolutely right, the world needs more positive and inspirational stories right now, and who better to focus on than Shohei Ohtani! I hope he reads the story and will tweet out to her and his other amazing fans, both in America and around the world, to continue to provide inspiration.

He may be the pride of Japan, but he is inspiring baseball fans around the world. We are so lucky that he plays for the Angels.