Dave Saltzer

4 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Bob Costas was talking about this on MLB Network.    Execs will be emphasizing to FAs that Ohtani is on another planet, and thus should not be driving up others’ salaries at that pace.

Tell that to Bryce Harper who already wants to renegotiate his contract and Juan Soto who turned down $440 million....

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

 

Okay, so, after review: Heyward is 3 years older, and had an average WAR of 0 the previous two seasons. He hasn't hit as well as he did this season aside from the short sample size of 2020 since 2015. The rest of the last 8(!) years he's been a league average to below average hitter who gets by on elite defense. The Dodgers are re-signing a guy who improved under their watch. Maybe they know something, but we haven't exactly had a great history with betting on one year wonders (e.g. Cozart, Tyler Anderson, etching ). Yelich is worse defensively, but the worst hitting season of his career (2021 - back issues) was still league average.

So, if you think Heyward is really a roughly equal player to Yelich this season, you have to 1) buy his improvement, 2) value his defense (which even most experts disagree about how to value it), and 3) care more about defense than hitting. 

IMO, Heyward is getting paid as a glove first outfielder who might be able to put up league average hitting. But you have to get at least a bit lucky to get 2-3 win player for under $10m.

First, thank you for taking the time to think it through and coming back with a reasoned response. I appreciate that.

Last year, Mickey Moniak put up a 2.2 WAR season (according to Baseball-Reference) for league minimum.

Take Jo Adell's numbers...he posted 0.3 WAR in 58 ABs. That's almost a 2 WAR pace like Heyward if you stretch out the ABs to the same as Heyward and Moniak.

Every year at the end of ST there are plenty of guys that a team can get out of the scrapheap that can and probably would put up 2-3 WAR (not guaranteed that they would, but have the potential, but the same is true for Heyward and Yelich) who can potentially put up 2-3 WAR for near league minimum. So. if you average out all the FAs like Heyward and all the non-tender candidates, etc. the cost for an OF who can put up those numbers on a year-by-year basis isn't really that high. 

I would certainly say that Yelich is the better bet over Heyward. But is it $19 million better? I think for around $11-12 million, we could get close to Yelich on a yearly basis. That's how I came up with my gross overpay on Yelich's contract. 

And, remember, Yelich is 31, which is when most OFers start to level out and then decrease by 34. We'd have ages 32-37, so, how do you project him aging? (I think he will hold up, which is why I'd do the deal).

How much of an overpay do you think Yelich's contract is on a yearly or total basis? And, how do you justify it?

I'm willing to take on ALL of Yelich's contract because it's only my money (and it's not my money!!!!), and we get a year of Burnes to work with him and Borass to work out an extension. Plus, it solves several of our holes for less than what we will most likely spend on Ohtani. 

Now, to be clear, I'd still go after Ohtani, and I believe Arte would go over the luxury tax to keep the unicorn because his international star power has the economic draw to jusity it. But, thre rest of my plan was to sign JD Martinez and improve the BP. All of what I'm saying can be done without breaking the luxury tax and would make us a better team. 

I don't want to argue Yelich's defense, as there are widely varying opinions on that. Let's just say it's average for LF or ignore it entirely, as he's not elite enough to justify him being a glove first defender.

On 11/29/2023 at 9:34 AM, Chuck said:

I'm pumped about this. 

Let's get a roll call:

So far I have @James, @ScottT, @Spirit, @katie, @Brian Ilten, @BaseballMom, @Slegnaac that have committed to going. I believe @Blarg you said you were hoping to go and would stay with a family member in the area.

I have secured my airfare there and back. Next up, an AirBnB and Group Tix.

I'm a definite maybe if my health allows.

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

I'm sorry, in what world is a guy who has a floor of a 2 win player right now worth only $8m? Last I checked, that's around the cost of 1 win. You could also argue he's closer to a 3 win player than a 2 win player, which would put him around $20m in value at present. Where exactly are you getting that valuation because you've entirely lost me. 

The same world that saw him post really subpar numbers from 2020 to 2022 and has 5 more years guaranteed on his contract. On a year by year basis, you can find an OFer with comparable numbers for about $8 to 10 million.

Who would you rather have (both are LH):

Player A:  .269/.340/.473

Player B: .278/..370/,447

One just signed for $9 million. The other is owed about $28 million (his contract is a bit backloaded and has a big buyout if I recall correctly). 

So yes, Yelich currently is overpaid about about $17-19 million. I'm looking at what I could pay on the open market now to get similar production.

Burnes, on the other hand, is underpaid by about $10 million, so next year, it would be mostly okay to do the deal I suggested, and hope that we can sign Burnes to an extension. 

1 hour ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Also, I'm liking this idea until December 2024, when we would have had one year of Burnes and he leaves to sign with the Dodgers, and we'll still have to pay Yelich $26 million a year for four more years for #4 OF level production.

To put it in perspective, we'd be paying a late-thirties Yelich $26 million a year all the way through the final 2028 election debate between Gavin Newsom and Donald Trump.  (Remember, after Trump "loses" in 2024, he's still constitutionally eligible to run yet again.)

You can't think that way. If you do, you will miss out on most trades. 

I could easily say that by bringing Burnes here, he falls in love with the place and signs an extension in February. It's a crapshoot that in my trade proposal would cost us Rengifo and Suarez--neither of whom will move the needle that much for us.

Yes, other teams *could* trade more than we can. But, they might prefer Cease or Glasnow and wouldn't have to absorb a bad contract (yes, Yelich had a good year last year, but he's still overpaid by about $17-18 million). So, if they can trade for any of them, why do the deal where they have to take on payroll. And, how many of them have the space for Yelich to play?

With regional broadcasting dollars in flux, many teams are being very hesitant, so I'm told, about spending this year. As much as Ohtani is holding up the market, money is also holding up the market because teams are being far more cautious (again, so I'm told by people in the biz).

Finally, regarding Yelich, as the AW saying goes, it's not my money. Maybe Arte received bad health news (I hope not, as I hope no one does). So, he could be motivated.

If I'm Minasian and could swing the deal I proposed, I would convince Arte to do it. We need more stable guys who take walks, and Yelich fits that bill. Adell and Moniak can switch off in RF, but both are freeswingers. So, limiting them to essentially 1 position, makes us a better club. 

15 hours ago, Chuck said:

What do you think a deal would look like if we took on Yelich and his entire contract along with Corbin Burnes?

Yelich actually had a pretty good season in ‘23. 

I really don't think it would cost all that much for Burnes if we took on all of Yelich's contract. Luckily, Angels fans are used to overpays, especially in the OF. I've run it through the trade simulators, and trading them Rengifo alone according to the evaluator is more than fair value back to them. They really are in some payroll crunch time, need to move an OFer, appear ready to be signing their top prospect (a CFer), and need middle infield help with offensive upside. Sounds to me like Rengifo and Suarez should be more than fair for a pitcher that they will lose in a year, major financial relief, and filling their MIF need makes us line up well for them.

As you and I have discussed, this would be my offseason plan. Trade for Burnes and Yelich. Sign Ohtani if possible to DH and if not, signing JD Martinez. And build up our bullpen. 

Our team needs more players who draw walks throughout the lineup, so we can have more balanced production. We had way too many free swingers last year in our lineup.

As for my offer to Ohtani, it would be as such:

$45 miliion a year guaranteed per year for 10 years making him the highest paid player in the game, just as a hitter. 

Add in $1 million for every 10 innings, rounded up (so at 10.1 innings he gets $2 million). If he pitches 150 innings, he's at an insane amount of $60 million for that year. Bonuses for All Star Appearances, awards, etc. 

Opt outs for him after years 2, 4, and 6. The Angels get 1 opt out after year 5. 

I have no idea what my health will be like then, but I am going to make every effort to go. I don't have many connections right now with Minor Leaguers because of trades and my inability to get out there as much as I used to. But, if we can get some players, Fletcher, and some others, that would be awesome. 

I miss our old Fanfests. Those were great times. 

1 hour ago, mmc said:

Haven't said it all season, but thanks for posting all the transactions. It has made my life easier.

58 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I got Paris over Hurtado because despite how bad Paris looked (much like Adell, Adams and many other top prospects in their first cup of coffee), Kyren slashed .255/.393/.417 after a slow start and clubbed 14 HR and stole 44 bases, playing good defense. 

Since Schanuel & Joyce will qualify for our prospect list, I'm guessing our top 10 will be something like this:

1. Schanuel

2. Rada

3. Dana

4. Paris

5. Joyce

6. Hurtado

7. Sanchez

8. Urena

9. Bachman

10. Cabbage

Are you sure that Schanuel and Joyce will qualify? Even if they stay below ABs, won't they surpass time on the ML roster? 

Great interview and great get! I don 't know if people on here realize how hard it is to get Perry for an interview. I would love to sitdown with him in the offseason to discuss things, but I am very happy that you got this for the site.

Additionally, I very much appreciated having both your commentary AND the full interview listed. That gave us both context and the overall response from Perry so we could see how you interpreted it and how he said.

Again, VERY happy that you got this. And, good job!

Thanks @taylorblakeward for writing this. Good to know that we have some young talent to watch. We will need it with the amount of graduates and trades we've made!

5 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

@ten ocho recon scout

Bingo

I wrote a story about this last week. The reality is the Angels would have gotten something like two prospects in the 40-80 range and 3 lottery tickets. Nobody who is a major leaguer right now. That seems like nothing to casual fans but that would actually be a huge haul compared to other rentals. 
 

It certainly would have helped make the farm system look a little more shiny and get higher ratings, but it is a gamble to say it would have quickly led to more big league wins. 
 

Sooooooo many people who are saying the Angels missed some golden opportunity are vastly over rating what they could have gotten back. 

Will you ever be willing and/or comfortable discussing some possible trades that may have been rumored, even amongst the press corps, about what an Ohtani trade would have brought back from certain teams, or teams in general (maybe say a team with an organization ranked in the 5-10 range offered its #1, 2, 15, 18, and 20th ranked players)?

7 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I know a lot on here don't like the trade. And as someone who's watched this team struggle to produce actual ballplayers at the MLB level, I get it. I'm half foot in the same boat.

But @Jeff Fletcher mentioned on here a few days ago something that stood out. Teams today are less likely to move good prospects for rentals than they were 10 years ago.

Which obviously makes us sound stupid.

That said...

Loo at it in the vice versa. How much do we really think Ohtani was (is) going to bring back? I know causal fan assumes he would be a bonanza in trade, but again, he's a guaranteed FA at the end of the year (no extension). I'm sure we could have gotten a top tier prospect for him, and likely a few additional nice ones.

But the reality is, unicorn or not, for a 2 month rental, the odds are next to zero that we would have gotten anything close to a replacement. 

So the options were to trade Ohtani and punt the year, hoping that the return is someone like what we got today... Quero but better (maybe).

Stand pat, keep everyone, and gamble with what we have that 3 weeks from now there's still a chance.

Like Minasian said, you can go to sleep with this move and relax, because you did it for the right reasons.

It might absolutely haunt us a few years from now.

But not actually trying to win with Ohtani guaranteed to be wearing this uniform would also have absolutely haunted us.

Good post, and a few thoughts:

1) Yes, the time to trade him, if we were trading him, was last year at the deadline or in the offseason. Our haul would have been much better. Having said that, we would have gotten back more than Quero and Bush for Ohtani. 

2) Almost all teams that would have traded for him would have done so to showcase their organization to Ohtani to sell him on their team. So, paying more for him than a generic rental would have cost more.

3) I don't think anyone was saying that we could have come acquired something close to him in a trade, even in 2 players. The question was whether or not we could improve the team overall and win more in the long run by trading him that an extra draft pick that we get next year (assuming we don't sign him, and assuming we don't draft the next Mike Trout with that pick).

4) Maybe Arte and Perry came to an understanding on the parameters of a future deal with Ohtani and decided to go for it with him as part of that deal. I believe that he is mostly happy here, and if we can show that we can win, will stay if the numbers are comparable.

5) Maybe Perry and Arte realized that what they would get back for Ohtani wasn't worth the chance of signing him (kind of the flip of what teams have to consider when trading for him).

6) When I went by the team store today at about 3:45 pm, there were 30+ people in there buying mostly Ohtani merchandise.\

Now, having said all that:

1) If we are going all in, we should go all in a bit more and continue to upgrade, without totally decimating the team (by say trading Joyce, Silseth, Bachman, etc.).

2) A discussion needs to be had at some point with him and his agent, if that winning is important to him, and we don't make the postseason this year, it isn't due to our lack of trying. It has much more to do with the team's health and that he and Trout have only been in the same lineup about 60% of the time, and even then, he wasn't a 2-way play and star for all those games.

3) Can we please end the whole "Angels are wasting Trout and Ohtani's careers' theme? If Ohtani stays, it's his life, as long as we continue to try and improve and win.

Finally

1) I know that @Jeff Fletcher has disagreed with me in the past about the idea of presenting Ohtani with a sales pitch of committing to spending a certain amount every year independent of Ohtani's deal (it's not likely that a player's contract could have, or that MLB would agree to such a clause because of the potential long term impact on future deals, but then again, they might frown upon agreeing to give an ownership stake in the team as part of the deal for the same reason), one can have a handshake deal to do exactly that. The reason why we would give him multiple opt-outs would be how we ensure that we live up to our commitments. He can always opt out, if we don't spend as we promised.

2) Whatever team does sign Ohtani (and I sure hope it is us), needs to consider something. Let's assume that Ohtani gets about $55 million/year deal for about 8 to 10 years. Whatever team that signs him to that, is going to want to win and most likely will have a payroll without Ohtani around $200+ million/year already, and probably higher. That's one of the supposed reasons why the Dodgers lowered their payroll this year to reset their luxury tax hit.

However, when one adds in Ohtani's future contract, that will push just about any team over the luxury tax, and many teams like the Mets, Padres, Dodgers, Yankees, etc. into a position where they are $40 million or more over the luxury tax. I believe it is at that point that a team starts to have its 1st round draft pick pushed back 10 spots in the 1st round (unless the team finishes in the bottom 6 teams in record, in which case it is its second round pick). 

Whatever team realistically signs Ohtani is going to hit that threshold, which will over the life of the contract, hinder that team's ability to draft as high quality players, especially in the first round. Granted, if the team goes deep into the postseason year in and year out, who cares, there's *that* much of a difference of picking 28th or 38th. 

Still, Ohtani's deal will most likely hamper the future overall organization for whatever team realistically signs him. 

17 hours ago, AngelStew43 said:

Dave, do you have anything on the UDFA out of Columbia, SS Andy Blake?  It seems that the organization was very pleased to get him, as he received a $100K signing bonus.  Also, at 6'4" and 220, he seems very large to stick at SS, possibly another 3B candidate?

Yeah, I think he's outgrown SS, and will move to 3B. He was listed as a SS/3B in the Cape Cod League before signing with us. Interestingly, he also got a couple of games in the OF there.

Here are a couple of good articles on Blake:

https://capecodchronicle.com/en/5827/sports/10603/Blake-Brings-Big-Bat-Steady-Approach-To-Firebirds-Lineup-Cape-Cod-Baseball-League-Orleans-Firebirds.htm

and

https://www.trentonian.com/2023/07/11/former-hopewell-valley-and-hun-standout-andy-blake-ivy-player-of-the-year-at-columbia-signs-with-angels/

The Angels really seemed to want him with the way they pounced on him and raised their offer. 

On 7/19/2023 at 11:35 AM, Angelsfan1984 said:

So do we think Schanuel would rank in the top 2-3 of the Angels farm? Do Neto or O'Hoppe still qualify?

Assuming No Neto, O'Hoppe, Bachman, Joyce, Soriano, etc., I'd rank them like this:

1. Quero

2. Schanuel

3. Bush

4. Dana

5. Rada

6. Paris

7. Madden

8. Albright

9. Adams

10. Blakely

9 hours ago, Revad said:

Plus several undrafted free agents, so shouldn’t the AW prospect gurus be busy on a list revision.  Of course, there could be some action at the trade deadline.  Where do the top picks belong?

Some of us have already been hard at work on this, but a lot of discussion occurred to wait until after the trade deadline. 

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

Schanuel, Rios, Redfield, Kent and Wimmer are likely to join the top 30 on my list. We'll see where everyone else is at though. And the deadline could shake things up too. If they sell hard (Ohtani, Renfroe, Mous, Escobar, Moore, Estevez) there's a chance that only Schanuel, Rios and Kent only emerge in the top 30. And similarly, if they buy, we could see Fontanelle sneak in. 

I agree with these guys, but would also add Minacci.

Then again, I believe that we will see about a third of our list either being open spots due to aging out in the Majors or trades. And, who knows if we get a bunch of new prospects back in trades. 

How to pitch? 

Easy. Watch a few hours of the Angels blowpen and don't do what they do. 

32 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

I'm not sure why a bunch here keep thinking that what the halos are doing is weird.  And by weird, I presume they mean unconventional or against the grain if you will.  This year seems pretty on par with the last two drafts.  

They did finally take a HS position player this year in Wimmer and another in rd 19.  

Two years ago we had almost no scouting info from the pundits.  Last year it was still pretty limited.  This year there was a ton more.  So I don't think it's Perry and crew doing anything different than they've been doing, it just seems more against the grain this year because others have their conventional scouting info to compare it to.  Good or bad, I think the Angels rely heavily on their spreadsheets.  Which likely included a lot of pitch track and batted ball data that most scouts and very few people in the general pop have.  

I do have some concerns that there might be some 'smartest guy in the room' mentality here.  And for the record, I really don't think the halos are using 'close to the majors' as much as people thing.  College guys just have more data available to evaluate them.  They're just more predictable.  Sure they're gonna take a couple flyers here an there.  

The dogs have a great system because they choose guys who match with the things they value in terms of how they development.   HS players in general are a pretty bad bet.  People still have PTSD from the Dipoto day of the supposed 'high floor low ceiling' approach that essentially amounted to low floor no ceiling.  

Or to put it another way, maybe the approach to getting Zach Neto was a bit of a fluke but to the people that took him he's exactly what they thought he would be.  It might not work as well with Schanuel, but if I'm the Angels I think I'd double down pretty hard on the eval process that got me the last guy.  

One more thing that might be important and we'll use Schanuel as an example even though I don't know the answer and it probably applies to Zach Neto as well.  Not only can you see what the player has done but you can parse out what a player did against them.  Schanuel and Neto came from smaller schools with supposed lesser programs where they likely faced lesser competition.  But not on every pitch they saw.  I guarantee they faced some tough pitchers or more importantly, some tough pitches from guys who probably didn't through tough pitches all that often.  What did those guys do against pitches with major league level vertical and horizontal movement and spin rates and velos?   I have no idea, but I bet the Angels do.  But I bet they would have far less info of that type if at all for HS position players.  

Anyway, I have no idea what info they have, but I guarantee it ain't just a scouting report with 'good face' or 'high ass' checked off.   

They do. Here is some of the publicly available info on Schanuel. From: https://www.mlb.com/news/nolan-schanuel-guide

7 hours ago, Second Base said:

He's gone in two months. I'll take one. All three woild be a fleecing. 

You have a problem with fleecing instead of being fleeced?

17 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Would probably have to include something to get that. But I’d be wide open to that. Estevez, Ward, Sandoval, whatever, see if they’d take Fletcher’s contract, etc.

There’s a lot of room to find a good deal here.

Agreed. Maybe Ohtani, Ward, Rengifo, and Soriano for Lawlar, Jones, and Pfaadt.

I just want AZ to make an offer like this so we can stick it to the Dodgers. We would have such a young nucleus to build around, that it would work out well for us. 

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

Multiple top 100 prospects for 2 months of Shohei? I mean if you can get that, go and get it then. Seriously, Arizona calls up and offers Jordan Lawlar and Druw Jones, you accept and say thank you very much.

 

Lawlar, Jones, and Pfaadt would get the job done, IMHO. 

23 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

I don’t understand paying full #11 slot value for a guy projected to go near the end of the 1st round.

Can someone help enlighten me on that?

There were several teams rumored to want him near where we took him. The rankings weren't where other teams valued him, so I guess we offered him full slot. 

I'm still okay with it, as I think his plate discipline could make him an elite bat. 

Thanks @taylorblakeward for putting in all the hard work prepping and covering the draft! 

6 hours ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

But he doesn't play 3B...

I know he doesn't, which is why I responding to a question of "if he played 3B"....