Dave Saltzer

The latest from Bleacherreport. 

15. Los Angeles Angels: RHP Matthew Allan, Seminole HS (Fla.)

This is the first spot where it will take an above-slot deal to ink right-hander Matthew Allan to his $4 million asking price, albeit not much above-slot with a $3.89 million slot assignment. The 6'3" right-hander already has three above-average pitches and legitimate frontline upside, making him the top prep arm in a thin class. For an Angels team desperate for pitching, it's a price worth paying.

7 hours ago, Stradling said:

I have just seen some posts that say something to the affect of, “I hope Eppler drafts a pitcher this year instead of some toolsy outfielder like Adams”.  To me that is kind of discrediting  him.  

That was also me. I was really stoked that several college and HS pitchers fell to us last year when it was our turn to pick, and as I've said earlier in threads, believe that it is cheaper and easier to draft and develop pitching. So, I was rather let down with the selection of him. I liked the Jackson pick, but wanted a pitcher or even Gorman last year,not another OFer. At the time, we had Adell, Jones, Marsh, and others as OFers, so, taking another OFer (one whom I didn't think would be as good as any of those) didn't excite me as much as getting a pitcher or Gorman. This year, again, I'm hoping we get some top-shelf pitching and not another toolsy OFer. 

1 hour ago, VariousCrap said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/05/21/velocity-is-strangling-baseball-its-grip-keeps-tightening/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d000489c9202

 

I thought some of you might enjoy this article.  A lot of interesting info in it about how pitching velocity is hurting the game and some possible changes that could even things out.

Thanks for sharing an interesting article. I am really interested to see the results of how the Atlantic league will play out. I am concerned that pushing the mound back 2 feet may push pitchers to keep striving for higher and higher velocity as well as affecting release points on breaking pitches that may put more strain on the arm. That could result in more arm injuries. And, I can also see that with more time for a breaking pitch to drop, it could make it even more challenging for hitters. It will be interesting to see how baseball will evolve. Hopefully, we may see a return to more players who can make contact and work the count because I would find that more interesting for the game. But, I doubt that that will be the solution. 

19 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I actually kinda feel the opposite.  I think they are of the mind that they can get guys with big arms in the later rounds and teach them to pitch whereas it's much more difficult to teach the skill of putting bat to ball.  

Since there's some great depth on the position player side this year though, we might see the halos go after a prep arm in the first round and maybe even the 2nd as well.  

I wouldn't mind the Henderson pick though.  Another guy I'd like to see fall to us is Bryson Stott.  

Looking at their most recent picks under Eppler, I'd say what they are looking for most is pure athleticism/physicality more than anything else. They are then looking for athletes with strong mental makeups. I disagree that they are focusing on putting bat to ball skills because one of the big questions with Adell (which allowed us to snag him) was how well that would develop with him. Same for Adams. But, in both cases, they were incredible athletes with great mental makeups. They have also shown the same style with their international signees suck as Knowles and DeShawn. 

I would say,  you can't teach tools such as power, speed, or pitching hest. But theres more power generally available every year and there are more positions on the field to place power. That's for both the draft and through free agency. So, that makes the pitching more rare, desirable, and expensive. Given two players who are essentially equally talented athletes, I'd lean towards the pitcher because it would potentially net more savings and have a bigger effect on a game, I'd lean towards taking the pitcher.

Lastly, I would add two more caveats. First, while not every prospect will pan out, at some point each year you have to factor in organizational depth (note, this is way different than organizational need, which I am opposed to doing in baseball). The goal is to create waves of talent that matriculate to the Majors at or near the same time. That makes it much easier to fill in pieces to make the parent club the best it can be through trades and free agency. That may shift the focus from high school (where generally the best raw talent is available) to college at times. 

For all of these reasons, drafting is an art, not a science, and always will remain so. We as fans are only privy to so little information for players compared to what the scouts and teams will know. I've had students with million dollar arms and 10 cent brains and have seen how that has affected them in the draft. Now, more than ever, that mental makeup and fortitude is counting for a lot more of a player's draft profile. And, I am sure that the Angels are very much focused on those intangibles as much as they are on the raw talent. 

As I said earlier, assuming all is good with the high school pitchers I listed earlier, and with Fletcher or Covaco, that would make for a great 1st and 2nd round haul for us. 

19 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

They better take the best pitcher available. 

Please, no more toolsy outfielders. 

The only other positions I would take is a legit power hitting 3B or C, that has a bit of a defensive minded profile as well. 

You know that last year I very much wanted the Angels to take one of the available pitchers with our pick. I agree that I do not want another toolsy OFer, and would much prefer a pitcher. But, I wouldn't take the best pitcher available if there is a marked difference between the pitcher and best overall player available.

My premise is that it is cheaper and easier to draft and develop top-tiered pitching than it is to acquire it through free agency. Hitting is a lot easier to acquire (our recent bad experiences aside) than pitching. So, if two players are equally talented, I'd take the pitcher over the hitter due to the better financial windfall that could result. But, I wouldn't just take the best pitcher and overlook all position players, because the windfall from the best player is still greater than the windfall from a potential average pitcher. 

Yes, last year we took a lot of pitchers. But, we took pitchers after the top-ranked ones were mostly off the boards. And, we took several in certain rounds to shore up money to allow us to sign our top two picks last year.

Getting Kirby, Allen, or Priester in the 1st round, and Cavaco or Fletcher in the second round would be really nice.

From: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/

15. Angels – George Kirby, RHP, Elon
The Angels have been tied mostly to high school players: Henderson (who GM Billy Eppler has seen), Priester, Florida prep RHP Matthew Allan (rumors have him seeking $4 million, so he’d be overslot starting at this pick), Tennessee prep CF Maurice Hampton, and NorCal prep SS Kyren Paris, who is another polarizing prospect with interest in the mid-first round, but isn’t a top-40 prospect for some clubs.

A new name.

From: https://thebiglead.com/2019/05/17/2019-mlb-mock-draft-adley-rutschman-witt-vaughn-abrams-bleday/3/

15. Los Angeles Angels: Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove High School (IL)

Quinn Priester is a Midwestern prep pitcher with excellent athleticism and great stuff. He can hit 97 mph with his fastball, has a heavy two-seamer and owns probably the best curveball in this high school class. At 6’3″ and 198 pounds, Priester has the frame and athleticism to be a long-term starter.

The Angels are looking closely at the prep prospects in this year’s draft and Priester would be an excellent add here. If they can get him to improve his changeup, he could wind up being the best pitcher in this class.

I watched some video of Cavaco. I think there's the potential to unlock a good bit more power out of him. And, I can see the appeal of Trejyn Fletcher, but I'm not sure he'll be there for our second pick. As much as I would love to get a great pitcher in the draft, I'd have to admit getting these two would be an impressive haul.

An interesting pitcher, if available in the second round (I'm hearing mixed things about where he might go) is Alek Manoah. We have his brother Erik pitching for us at IE. Alek is supposed to be better, with an even harder fastball. The concerns are about his build and secondary offerings (whether he stays as a starter or moves to the pen). If Fletcher is gone and Manoah is available, that might be an interesting pick. But, I've also heard other teams willing to take Manoah earlier. 

The biggest thing I'm hearing is that outside of the top 3 picks, it's anyone's guess as to how the draft will go, and teams are doing a lot of "what if" scenarios for their first few rounds because a lot of planning will change on draft day.

I think the question should be instead whether or not starters deserve to be paid a premium for "starting". If more and more teams go to openers, and with fewer and fewer pitchers going 6+ innings for a quality start, shouldn't it really come down to the number of innings pitched and the quality of those innings rather than when the pitcher pitches those innings?

19 hours ago, True Grich said:

This is absolutely, positively, without a doubt the best stuff!  This is what baseball is to me... the stories and the memories. I don't get lost in statistics - but I can absolutely get lost in listening to baseball players past or present talk about their experiences in the game.  I can never, ever get enough of stuff like this. 

Thank you!

Thanks. Glad you enjoyed. Stuff like this is baseball at its best. It's not arguing about numbers, pontificating and projecting, etc. It's just the game at its best, and getting through the grind of 162 games. I will try and get another interview with him later in the season.

I think the bigger issue is the whole Jose Guillen episode. Imagine being the guy filling in for Guillen during that stretch when he was one of our better hitters. 

But yes, Angees was awesome, especially hearing how that may have come to happen.

This a great win for baseball and a sadness (but not a loss) for the Angels. Tim has been that voice of history and wisdom for the team with all of his years of service, but, he has left an office and staff fully prepared to continue on past him. To me, that is one of several great hallmarks of a great leader.

I hope that while Tim is the president, the Angels can and will add several more players into the HoF wearing the Angels uniform, meaning that we have the players and that he serves long enough to see them inducted!

Good job on this @totdprods!

On 3/27/2019 at 12:22 PM, totdprods said:

Last year in the 2018 thread, I made a few guesses as to who we should watch and how things might progress...

AAA:
Missed the mark on Almonte, Morris, and Campos...Pena held his own. Zach Houchins didn't do much to improve his stock, nor did he hurt it.
Blash was a monster at AAA, which wasn't too wild of a guess, but he exceeded even his usual lofty, inflated numbers. Rymer was good while he was here. 
Hit the nail on the head with Fletcher and Briceno, maybe even underestimating Jose.

AA:
Barash retired shortly after that post, and Wass was injured almost all year, so that ended that. 
Jose Rojas continues to shine and prove himself more each day. Wesely had an awful year, but Pena and Rodriguez didn't hurt their status.

A: 
Jared Walsh did indeed have a monster year for Inland Empire...and Mobile...and Salt Lake. Jack Kruger is now where Briceno was this time last year. Ryan Vega played one game. 
Luis Rengifo? Don't need to say much there...Baldoquin sort of took a step forward. 
Bertness and Salazar didn't do squat, Procopio and Gatto didn't do a whole lot to help or hurt. 
Jose Suarez did his best Barria impersonation. 

Rookie:
Wenson vanished, MacKinnon hit .333/.457/.513/.970 with more walks than strikeouts his last 45 games, and I don't even remember who Sanchez was.
Rogalla was good - in the two games he pitched - and Ziemba was mediocre. Kida de la Cruz had a mixed year - 6.20 ERA, but 70 K in 53.2 IP.

I'll work on some 2019 predictions and players to watch soon!

You didn't so much miss on Wesely. He was hurt off and on all last year, and even the year before, which has greatly affected his pitching. For a while, he was hitting 94, then hurt his arm, lost the velo, then the control, and it's been a bad ride for him. Good kid, but health hasn't played out.

It really depends who writes it @Jeff Fletcher

I will read anything that you write about Mike Trout because you provide great coverage and insights as the beat reporter. You get stories and things that fully contextualize any quotes that you get, so, if anything, it would make me want to be there more.

As for national reporters, most of them write very generic articles that regurgitate the same statements and things, and don't provide the insights that you provide. So, I'd probably skip those. There are a few national reporters that I'd read

And, writers like me, who provide different takes, such as a fan perspective, I would read. And that would make me want to go more because that is a voice with which I can connect. 

So, if you are thinking of writing an article with quotes, I'd say go for it. Your take around here inspires people and encourages fans, so, I'd encourage it.

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

Buzzi Bavasi can rot in purgatory.

You are too kind to him!

Younger/Newer Angels fans won't get this, but I think March 19, 2019 atones for November 19, 1979. It's good to see that the organization learned something in 40 years.

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

IMO, I think we should sign him to be in a strict platoon with Pujols at 1B. This way Bour (a power hitting lefthanded hitter with a good OBP) gets the majority of ab's against righties, with Pujols getting the rest he needs off his feet going against just southpaws, in addition to being a late inning pinch hitter in case we need a big HR. 

Thoughts?

sNBCSPhilly's Jim Salisbury reports that the Phillies have placed first baseman Justin Bour on waivers.

The Phillies just wanted Bour as a pinch-hitter down the stretch last year; with Carlos Santana and Rhys Hoskins on the roster, there was no way he'd be in their plans for 2019. Someone will probably claim him and see what he's looking for in arbitration in advance of the non-tender deadline. If the team doesn't like what it hears, he can be let go then at no cost. He'd be a fine option as a platoon first baseman ... it's just a matter of whether that's worth $5 million or so in this environment.

 

 

Source: Jim Salisbury on Twitter

I would pass on this. He will get far more in arbitration than he would get as a FA. Why waste the time, when the reality is we should wait to see what it would take to get him as a FA. At $1 million, that's a palatable option as a FA. at $5+ million in arbitration, or evern $2+ million in arbitration, I'd say it's too much for a platoon 1B only.

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

I could have included this, but in terms of depth:

Ranked Prospects By Primary Position

C. 25

1B: 10, 20

2B: 5, 21, 26

SS: 6, 11, 22

3B: 8, 13

OF: 1, 3, 7, 12, 16, 17, 23, 24, 30

SP: 2, 4, 9, 14, 15, 18, 27, 28, 29

RP: 19

That's a good add AJ.

Great work getting this out. It's nice to see how much this list has improved from just a few years ago. And, hopefully, it will allow us to make some good moves without sacrificing too much to improve the club.

Ettin,

A great start to what I'm sure will be another great series with detailed analysis by you. I'm looking forward to reading each one. Keep it up!

I really enjoyed this. Thanks for sharing the insight. Keep it up! 

49 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Yes. 

Losing Marsh hurts, and you don't want to trade him because his value is nowhere near it's height yet.  A year or two from now he'll be MUCH more valuable than he is right now.  But because of our dearth of outfield prospects, yes, I'd include him into a deal that nets us J.T. Realmuto. 

I don't know about Marsh having more value a year from now than presently. Lots of teams know what we have in Marsh and would love to have him. He has been heavily scouted by lots of organizations.

Like you, as much as I like Marsh, I'd be willing to pay that price to get Realmuto.

I think this is a great idea by @Jeff Fletcher and a really good way to start of the series. I'm interested to see his other ideas.

I think an interesting graphic would be to see how much of each playoff vs. non-playoff team's payroll went to each of those categories. How much are teams overpaying for their homegrown players later in their careers vs. trading vs. signing free agents. Obviously homegrown players may in many ways be cheaper prior to free agency, but, afterwards, may be just as expensive.

Additionally, just listing the playoff roster is not a completely fair analysis of how a playoff team was created. Trades and injuries happen throughout the season, so, seeing the total size and depth of a team is very important. Health plays a very substantial role in who does or does not make the playoffs, so, it would be interesting to see how a team made it with all the players who appeared throughout the season as well as the number of players used throughout the season.

27 minutes ago, Tank said:

one phone call later, it'd be done, @Dave Saltzer

Totally.