Dave Saltzer

20 hours ago, fanfromday1 said:

Thanks Dave Saltzer, very interesting read. Guess that's why GM's appoint people they have worked with before to their staff so they can get the swing votes on their side.

It's not that easy for the scouts to just go along with a GM. They are almost all on 1-year contracts, and have their long-term reputations to be concerned about. It's not so easy for them to hitch their star on just 1 GM. If they were just "yes-mean", that's all their career would be. 

Personally, if I owned a team, I'd more than double my scouting budget, pay top dollar for the best scouts (I'd do the same for the player development people and minor league managers/coaches), and would reap the rewards. 

57 minutes ago, Tank said:

Thanks, Dave. Interesting stuff.

id love to know what kind of conversations are going on right now prior to next weeks' trade deadline.

Thanks. In part 2, I will talk a lot more about the process of how trade discussions start and get done, but I can't mention any specific player or teams. Rest assured, the process is in overdrive right now, and large amounts of discussions are happening on an hourly basis. 

1 hour ago, REDneck said:

While a system of checks and balances should be in place the ultimate and final decision should rest with the GM, regardless of what a scout or coach thinks.

The only one that should be able to veto is a owner.

 

Ultimately, the GM will be held accountable for all trades or non-trades, to say that the final decision rests solely there is not accurate. Many players have limited trade protection or full non-trade agreements. The deal can be done and the player nixes it. That's not the GM's fault, even if the GM will be held accountable. 

A deal can be done, but slightly takes the team over on payroll, and it gets nixed by ownership. Or, ownership can override a GM to make a move for a variety of factors other than the most sound baseball decision. 

The deal can be agreed to in theory, and when medicals are exchanged, the medical staff, which gets additional information won't sign off anymore. Similarly, deals can be close to done and an injury happened in the meantime that makes one team back out or no longer interested in making the trade. The injury might not have to be a part of the trade, but, if an injury to another player forces a team to go in a different direction, that happens. 

As @JeffFletcherOCR pointed out, there are 30 teams all working to improve, and a new possibility opens up, and one team goes in a different direction.

Basically there are so many working and moving parts to any deal, it truly is amazing when they all come together to result in a trade. It's not as easy as so many armchair GMs want it to be, even if they do an extensive analysis to come up with a "fair" trade. 

While I love reading trade proposals, especially those from @Ettin, and am always checking for Angels rumors, the more it seems that fans need to understand how much more complicated the whole process is of making a trade. 

20 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Thank you Dave, it does make me wonder if the Halos didn't follow all of that, when they made the Wells trade and the various FA signings since 2007 that have backfired on them.  

When one group/individual overrides many or all of the other groups/individuals that I identified, you get things like the Wells deal. Talk with enough people in the industry, and you'll hear stories about deals like that for almost every club. It's not just the Angels. There are many factors as to why it happens. And it does happen in every organization. 

His mental makeup is off the charts, like that of Jam Jones. Both of them are mature beyond their years, especially in terms of understanding the game, and the necessary work they need to put in to be successful at it. Every scout I've talked to about them always talk about that as one of their defining characteristics, and keys to their success. 

Welcome aboard Steve! Good first article. I'm looking forward to reading more of your stuff. 

Eppler also talked about how much of an important part of the club that Ohtani is and that they always want to have as much of the 25 man roster that left Spring Training together. Eppler didn't want to speak on behalf of Ohtani or put words in his mouth, but knows that not playing doesn't sit well with Ohtani's hunger to play the game. 

That is pretty much how the presser ended. 

Eppler was asked if Ohtani had received any other treatments. Eppler said that Ohtani has received the biological treatments from 3 weeks ago and nothing since. 

Eppler.was asked if hitting will further endanger Ohtani's ligament. Eppler said that he asked that question to the doctors a number of ways. The doctor feels comfortable with Ohtani beginning his hitting progression. 

Eppler.was.asked.if Ohtani will join the team on the road. Eppler said it remains to be determined. Ohtani is day by day. He will do BP today and is scheduled for BP tomorrow. 

Eppler was asked of Ohtani needs TJ surgery. Here is his direct quote. "No doctor has told me (Eppler) that Shohei needs surgical intervention at this time." 

Eppler.was asked. If Ohtani could be a better hitter than we have seen so far if he just concentrates on that. Eppler replied that it remains to be seen. Only time will tell. 

Eppler was asked how ligaments heal and he said scabbing and then scarring. And, for Doc, he was asked if there was healing and the answer several times was yes. 

Will it be a minor league rehab? No. His progression is a return to play progression which will be done in a "private" and "controlled" manner. 

Why? It's what we determined to do. Minor League games are controlled by the rules of the game. It's not a Minor League Spring Training game. In this setting Ohtani won't have to wait to hit, etc.. On addition, Eppler added that the decision was also based on Ohtani DHing, and not having to play defense. 

When can Shohei face live pitching? He will start with standard BP routine. We will. See how he does with that. It is possible.for him to. See. Live pitching this weekend. But, we evaluate him daily and make our plans objectively and subjectively on him and his progression. 

Is Shohei I still at a grade 2 strain? Not getting it He has shown healing from 3 weeks ago. 

When will Shohei be able to DH? We are taking it day by day.. He will begin with batting practice and will proceed from there. 

Lots of media in attendance. Here's the opening statement. Shohei underwent an MRI again today in LA. It was compared to his prebiologic MRI it is "clear" that there is improvement and Shiehie can begin a hitti g progression, which he will begin immediately. He will be reevaluated again in 3 weeks. 

This is going to be tough, as I'm doing this on my phone while on vacation. I'll try to get notes out as they go. 

11 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Definitely not set for life financially but that's a massive swing of money and education that most people could never dream of. That's probably about a 9-10 year head start for most 18 year olds. 50k a year salary and 50k in college expenses. Plus on top of that getting to chase a dream...i'd take that in a heartbeat.

Yeah, funny thing about getting lots of money when you're young and making good decisions with it. Compound interest works wonders in your favor. 

Let's say you put $10k of that bonus in tax free or tax deferred retirement plans. And, let's say, over the rest of your life, you contribute $500/month into your IRAs. And you just put it in a mutual fund that returns 7.5% on average, the historical stock market return. At age 65, that comes to 2,614,265.12 at age 65. Now, let's assume after taxes, etc., and maybe buying yourself a reasonable car, you have $250k leftover (remember, not all states are as taxing as CA). And, let's assume you don't add a dime to that sum and just leave it there until age 30. That turns into $595,444.90 at age 30. 

Age 30 is a good number because hat gives you time to play baseball and chase your dreams until age 25, call it quits, go to college, and earn a degree. Let's say you choose law enforcement. You graduate, go through the academy, and become a patrol officer at age 30. Presently, the median salary for a patrol officer is $53,208. Let's assume that salary grows at a rate of about 2%. That comes to $67,480.61 for a starting salary at age 30. 

Now let's assume after getting your job, you get married and want to buy a house. Presently, the median price of a home in the USA is $188,900. Let's assume a 4% growth rate in that price. By age 30, that cost will be $302,434.99. Of course, from your signing bonus, you have nearly TWICE that much to pay cash for your house, leaving you with no mortgage. And of course you have no college debt. And, since you have a college degree, you are more likely to get promoted. The two biggest bills that most college graduates have to pay, you never will pay (mortgage and education costs). You can live on 100% of your income knowing full well that you never have to contribute anything more than $500/month to your retirement, and at age 65 you will have over $2.5 million in addition to your entire pension as a police officer. 

Yeah, I guess some people might not call that set for life, but for most sane people, that is far better off than they would ever be without that money at a young age. That would put your net worth at age 65 well into the top 10% of the US, which of course, is pretty much set for life, especially considering how your life would turn out if you had to pay for everything on your own trying to achieve the same scenario.

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

#Angels GM Billy Eppler: “There have been no changes in Ohtani’s diagnosis and neither our physicians nor medical staff have recommended (Tommy John surgery) or said it’s likely.”

The Angels announced Friday that Ohtani has a grade 2 sprain of the UCL in his right elbow.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 11, 2018

Thank you. Now please... Someone show @pedrogomezESPN @KeithOlbermann & @si_mlb the door. You can be relieved of your duties. Just more #FakeNews from a bunch of clowns. #Angels https://t.co/GOV7nI9vrp

— Chuck Richter (@ChuckRichter70) June 11, 2018

I wouldn't mind if the Angels let me do more of the coverage since I didn't misreport this story.

4 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Why would Keith Olberman or Pedro Gomez know more than local beat writers Maria Guardado and our favorites from the LA Times @Dollar Bill & OC Register @Jeff Fletcher ?

Um, I reported to you pretty much EXACTLY what was said and released. There was nothing in there for BSPN to use to suggest this. It was specifically asked and the response was he will be reevaluated in 3 weeks. If they want to speculate, then they need to make it clear that it is their conjecture, not what was stated or reported. If there was something specifically calling out TJ surgery, I would have put it in my notes to you all.

41 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

If you look at rounds 6-10 on a historical basis, how many players put up solid major league careers from that pool?  

I went back and looked at 15 years worth of drafts from the late 90's through 2010 and about 3 players per draft end up with 10 or more WAR for their career.  

That's 3 out of 150 players or 2%.  So the odds of finding an impactful player in those rounds is almost negligible.  

So.....

Everyone drafts college seniors and they all get senior money to sign ie anywhere from a bus ticket to about 50k.  

Every pick from 11-40 can get up to 125k without it affecting the pool.  

Slot value for picks 6-10 is about 920k plus the 5% you can go over gives you about 1mil.  All 5 of those picks for the halos were seniors.  If they avg about 20k each, that's 900k left.  

If you draft those guys later and they sign for the same amount, it saves you nothing from your pool.  

As an exercise, take picks 11-15.  3 HS and 2 college jrs.  They're upside picks who would are likely going to have signability issues.  Let's say, though, you drafted them all at 6-10 instead of 11-15 and they all signed for slot.  Then you drafted those college seniors at 11-15 and signed them for 20k each.  How much does that chew up from the pool in both scenarios? 

The way the halos did it:

+900k for senior signs in rounds 6-10 (1m in pool money - 100k to sign them)
Again, assume that 11-15 each sign for 6-10 slot money.  So that's around 1m.  They can each get 125k without it affecting the pool so that's 625k - 1m = 375k subtracted from the pool.  So you still have 525k in surplus pool left

If you transposed 6-10 with 11-15

6-10 now takes the entire pool value of those picks
11-15 sign for 20k each but you don't get that surplus back.  
so the net surplus back to the pool is ZERO.  

What if that extra 525k in pool money affords you the ability to go over slot on 2 of the high upside guys you drafted later like Isaiah Campbell from ARK (ranked 109 but picked 721) or Chandler Champlain (ranked 120 but picked 1141).  

The slot value for our 4th round pick (121) is 455k.  Both of those guys are equivalent to 4th round picks that would cost about 900k.  They can get 125k each plus the extra pool money is now 775k.  Shave a little more off from our first 5 picks to sign these guys and we've now got 3 fourth round picks from this draft.    

 

Good analysis and writeup Doc. And, I agree that is a very efficient way to do it, much better than Dipoto's high ceiling, low floor approach. There's always a good chance that when you offer real money to high upside prospects drafted later that they will take it, especially now that you can include a college scholarship. If you have $450k and a college scholarship paid for at age 18, you are very set for life. I'd tell my sons to take the money and run. What's the worst that can happen, you enter college a little older, a little wiser, and knowing that you gave pro-ball your best shot? Big deal. No college debt, the downpayment for a house (or the full price of a house outright) by the time you graduate. Sign me up please.

8 minutes ago, Griffey's Corner said:

cool thanks for the answer. I am assuming than this one was not universally loved?

I'd say if there is a fairly common sentiment, it's a slow burn. With so much highly ranked pitching still available at our first pick, and, with Adams playing OF like so many of our top prospects, there was a strong desire by many to draft someone like Singer instead of Adams. Not that we necessarily thought the Angels would necessarily draft Singer, but that we wanted them to switch gears based on who was falling to us. As we have learned more about Adams, and, it has become. Clear that he will sign to play (that wasn't well known at the time by fans), people are more open to it and liking it more. I think most really like the Jackson pick in the 2nd round, along with some of the later pitchers. But, I don't think you can say there is as. Much joy as there was with last year's draft with Adell and Canning. 

1 minute ago, Griffey's Corner said:

I know very little about the drafts. But is it the feeling of the board that the Angels had a good draft? Great draft? Should we have went with someone else in the 1st round?

I think there is a myriad of opinions on this year's draft, as opposed to last year's draft (which was universally loved). 

The truth is, the only way to know how good of a draft a team had is to wait 5-6 years and look back.