34red4

2 hours ago, mmc said:

 

I think I read somewhere he really wanted to play for Maddon too. He probably could have made more money pitching elsewhere, but he wanted to be on the Angels.

1 minute ago, jsnpritchett said:

I would bet that the Angels didn't even offer him a contract, after he quit on them last year.

I’m still hoping the full story of what happened comes out

41 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

 

“The New York Mets have formally offered free-agent starter Trevor Bauer a contract that would make him one of baseball’s highest-paid players on an annual average salary, a person with direct knowledge of the negotiations told USA TODAY Sports.”

I guess in today’s world, someone with “direct knowledge” is the same as “The Mets confirm”.

Sideshow Bob

9 hours ago, Trendon said:

I'm mainly scared that they are just going to sign a Rick Porcello and think that he's enough, which- NEWS FLASH- he isn't.

Based on the numbers, Porcello would be a great acquisition. Especially if he comes at less than 1/2 of what Odorizzi would cost.

SP fWAR projections 2021:

• Bauer - 4.2
• Paxton - 2.7
• Tanaka - 2.7
• Richards - 2.1
• Porcello - 2.1
• Archer - 2.1
• Odorizzi - 2.0

SP fWAR rank 2018-2020

• Bauer - 11.5, 7th
• Paxton - 7.5, 29th
• Tanaka - 6.5, 36th
• Richards - 1.7, 141st
• Porcello - 5.9, 40th
• Archer - 3.2, 91st
• Odorizzi - 6.8, 32nd

SP fWAR rank 2019-2020

• Bauer - 5.8, 16th
• Paxton - 3.8, 39th
• Tanaka - 4.0, 37th
• Richards - 0.7, 161st
• Porcello - 3.5, 46th
• Archer - 0.7, 162nd
• Odorizzi - 4.2, 36th

42 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

If by suck you mean below league average then you're right they don't suck. They're just.... average

Yes, Angels have the 7th best WAR for pitching in the AL but this is a best case scenario. Quintana will eat up innings, but there still are injury Qs that loom over a few of our guys' heads. Heaney usually always suffers a setback around the beginning of the season, Ohtani is a big ? and Canning might be a ticking time-bomb with UCL damage. 

Obviously we want them all to be healthy but it's the "what-if" that has haunted the Angels for a number of years now. 
The good news is the Angels are deep in rotation depth when it comes to slots 3-6. The question is what's the quality of that and can it work when playoffs come around?

We don't have a top 3 of Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin so making a deep run in the playoffs (with the current rotation) would mean having a strong bullpen/offense. Kind of how the Angels did it in 2002. 

On the other hand, the Angels lack a shutout bullpen as well. We have a strong offense (4th best WAR projection in AL), but we've seen over the years that offense alone can't win games.

Angels are in a very very tough spot. Trading prospects, particularly pitching prospects, won't do the Angels any good right now. They need all the depth they can get. 

The projections for the rotation have merit. As it stands, our top 4 have all performed like a #3 or better from 2019-2020. They could continue their performance, or all completely fall off, but you have to give them credit for what they have done.

SP fWAR ranks 2019-2020

Bundy - 4.5, 29th

Heaney - 2.7, 67th

Quintana - 3.3, 51st

Canning - 2.3, 82nd

3 hours ago, Fourts said:

I disagree.  Just compare the Angels starting rotation to other teams vying for the playoffs and see where they currently stand.  Pretty much all the Angel SPs have "hope" tied to them versus a good level of certainty.  That's a bad situation to be in.  Doesn't mean they can't avoid suckage in 2021 -- but's it's asking ALOT.

1. Bundy -- hoping that 2020 was his new norm and not a one-year aberration.
2. Heaney -- injuries and inconsistency are the norm
3. Quintana -- hoping he can regain what he had a couple years ago and that the limited 2020 inning doesn't impact him eating up innings in 2021
4. Canning -- still hasn't put it together yet and has injury issue.
5. Open spot: anyone we have on the roster right now taking this spot is simply hoping to keep the game close enough for the offense to win a few games.
6. Ohtani -- lol...it's 100% hope & praying with him SP-wise for 2021.

 If you you feel that's not one of the worst playoff contending starting pitching staffs....then you are more optimistic than Kimmy Schmidt.  I wish i was as optimistic as you my friend.

 

You’re claiming something is a fact and trying to back it up with subjective viewpoints.

The real fact, backed by data, is that the Angels rotation does not suck.

5 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

100%
Option A: Get Bauer
OR
Option B: Sign Odorizzi, Colome/Rosenthal, then get Joc. Save the prospects

It's one or the other. And it's only those specific players. If not, then no thanks. 

Both options exceed last years payroll by $20m+. Not saying it can’t happen, but those who have this set as an expectation are setting themselves up to be disappointed. 

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Making all four #2’s-3’s if pitching at least 150 innings each?

Pretty much. That’s a big if, but on paper the rotation is much better than people make it out to be.

40 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Yeah that's on me gents, I have what I openly consider a "skewed" view of what constitutes a role within an "ideal" rotation. 

Ace - Top 5-10 starting pitcher in all of baseball. Strong record of health and dominance. Good bet to go 180+ innings and log 200 k's. Not many teams have these. Some have two. 

#1 - An ace, minus the prerequisite record of health, and not as many K's. 

#2 - Basically a mid rotation starter that's either on the upswing of his career or has moments when he pitches like an ace. 

#3 - A steady, advice average starter that's better than a back end but lacks the upside of a TOR starter. Just throwing out numbers, but 170 innings, 3.50-ish ERA. 

----This space between 3-4 is where I believe Odorizzi fits. 

#4 - A back end starter that shows prolonged moments of being a dependable #3. 170 innings and a 4.00 ERA. 

#5 - Member of the rotation that's generally replaceable by a good prospect or a decent swingman. 140 innings, 4.50 ERA. 

Again, I know plenty would take exception to these classifications but it's just a shorthand version of where I like pitchers up. 

I picture Quintana, Heaney and Canning being #4's. Bundy being in that space between 2 and 3, and Odorizzi bring in that space between 3 and 4. Barria being in that space between 4 and 5. I suppose if Ohtani is healthy, #1, just not putting all my eggs in that basket.

 

I think the way people categorize pitchers is subjective, but the best way to keep it consistent is to try and be as objective as possible.

I’d define Ace the same way you do.

Everything else I’d categorize based on value (I like fWAR), since that takes into consideration innings pitched and effectiveness while disregarding “potential”. Potential is just potential until it actually leads to results.

A #1 imo is a top 30 pitchers in baseball based on value over a certain period of time.

#2 is 31-60

#3 is 61-90

and so on.

48 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I actually agree with this. I believe that Odorizzi's going to be good for 170 innings and a 3.75 ERA, a mediocre #3 and great #4. Quintana would be a solid #4 and I think Barria, when the opportunity arises is a halfway decent #4 as well. Chalk up Heaney and Canning as #4's as well.

The idea here is that the rotation itself won't necessarily be good as much as it will be adequate to keep it close for six innings. With a strong bullpen, you can cut off scoring for the final three innings, and open up an opportunity to win the ball game.

A 3.75 ERA over 170 innings would almost certainly put him in the top 50 pitchers in baseball. That’s not a #3 or #4.

22 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

For sure, the FA SS market is so much more populated than the pitching market a year from now.

Bring in one of those SSs (just not injury prone Seager or Correa), and then one of the prize SSs on the farm could be part of a deal to acquire a multiple years controlled pitcher.

Lindor/Story/Baez

With payroll currently being around $166m vs the $177m for 2020, I’d infer the team only spending around $15m more.

Archer or Porcello - 1/$5m

Hand or Rosenthal - 2/$15m

Soria, Wilson, Melancon, Robertson, or Chafin - 1/$4m

12 minutes ago, Jinzu said:

 

 

 

Projected Depth Charts fWAR 2021

• Bauer - 4.2
• Paxton - 2.7
• Tanaka - 2.7
• Richards - 2.1
• Porcello - 2.1
• Archer - 2.1
• Odorizzi - 2.0

 

SP fWAR rank 2018

• Bauer - 5.7, 7th
• Paxton - 3.7, 21st
• Tanaka - 2.4, 45th
• Richards - 1.0, 113th
• Porcello - 2.4, 43rd
• Archer - 2.5, 37th
• Odorizzi - 2.5, 38th

 

SP fWAR rank 2019

• Bauer - 3.3, 35th
• Paxton - 3.5, 29th
• Tanaka - 3.2, 39th
• Richards - 0.0, 264th
• Porcello - 1.8, 78th
• Archer - 0.7, 144th
• Odorizzi - 4.3, 20th

 

SP fWAR rank 2020

• Bauer - 2.5, 4th
• Paxton - 0.3, 120th
• Tanaka - 0.8, 67th
• Richards - 0.7, 75th
• Porcello - 1.7, 24th
• Archer - NA
• Odorizzi - 0.0, 217th

 

SP fWAR rank 2018-2020

• Bauer - 11.5, 7th
• Paxton - 7.5, 29th
• Tanaka - 6.5, 36th
• Richards - 1.7, 141st
• Porcello - 5.9, 40th
• Archer - 3.2, 91st
• Odorizzi - 6.8, 32nd

 

SP fWAR rank 2019-2020

• Bauer - 5.8, 16th
• Paxton - 3.8, 39th
• Tanaka - 4.0, 37th
• Richards - 0.7, 161st
• Porcello - 3.5, 46th
• Archer - 0.7, 162nd
• Odorizzi - 4.2, 36th

 

@Dochalo want to help with floor, ceiling and potential for injury analysis?

14 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

That proves it's bullshit.

Rendon is less valuable than Upton. Ok.

Taking money owed wayyyy to seriously.

I think as fans we often undervalue money owed. We saw examples of this with the Darvish trade. Or even in the Iglesias trade.

-43 means they value Rendon at $176m versus the $219m he’s owed. And Upton at $8m versus the $51m he’s owed.

37 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Are you using the trade simulator for this? It values Myers at -11. There's absolutely no way he's negative value.

He’s a negative value because he’s owed $45 million over the next two years.

7 minutes ago, Jinzu said:

SP fWAR rank 2018

• Bundy - 1.0, 117th
• Heaney - 3.1, 29th
• Quintana - 1.6, 87th

SP fWAR rank 2019

• Bundy - 2.4, 55th
• Heaney - 1.2, 104th
• Quintana - 3.2, 38th
• Canning - 1.3, 95th

SP fWAR rank 2020

• Bundy - 2.0, 12th
• Heaney - 1.4, 34th
• Quintana - 0.2, NR
• Canning - 0.8, 68th

SP fWAR rank 2018-2020

• Bundy - 5.4, 47th
• Heaney - 5.6, 46th
• Quintana - 4.9, 57th

SP fWAR rank 2019-2020

• Bundy - 4.5, 29th
• Heaney - 2.7, 67th
• Quintana - 3.3, 51st
• Canning - 2.3, 82nd

By the numbers:

Bundy has been a #4, #2, #1. Settling closer to a #1/#2.

Heaney has been a #1, #4, #2. Settling closer to #2/#3.

Quintana has been a #3, #2. Settling closer to a #2.

Canning has been a #4, #3. Settling closer to a #3.

SP fWAR rank 2018

• Bundy - 1.0, 117th
• Heaney - 3.1, 29th
• Quintana - 1.6, 87th

SP fWAR rank 2019

• Bundy - 2.4, 55th
• Heaney - 1.2, 104th
• Quintana - 3.2, 38th
• Canning - 1.3, 95th

SP fWAR rank 2020

• Bundy - 2.0, 12th
• Heaney - 1.4, 34th
• Quintana - 0.2, NR
• Canning - 0.8, 68th

SP fWAR rank 2018-2020

• Bundy - 5.4, 47th
• Heaney - 5.6, 46th
• Quintana - 4.9, 57th

SP fWAR rank 2019-2020

• Bundy - 4.5, 29th
• Heaney - 2.7, 67th
• Quintana - 3.3, 51st
• Canning - 2.3, 82nd

3 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Again though, according to the simulator it was not a good trade so the simulator was worthless. Maybe other deals have been closer but this deal proved the simulator cannot be used as the be-all end-all.

It’s purpose is to help determine fair value. It has no power over teams who chose to trade for less.

The trade is so lopsided that BTV won’t even let you post it on their boards

https://www.mlb.com/video/chris-rodriguez-on-rookie-program

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

Roster Resource seems to be the closest. Their numbers are accurate (aside from arbitration estimates) and include pre-arb estimates as well.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/angels

The hardest part to account for seems to be pre-arb estimates, and Roster Resource at least provides an explanation for how they come up with their pre-arb estimates:

1. The "estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration" figure (which is included in luxury tax and "actual" payroll) presumes that, when factoring DL time, each team will need to pay for 33 player-seasons over the course of the regular season. This number is calculated by subtracting the number of guaranteed and arbitration-year contracts from 33(the number of player-seasons) and then multiplying the number that remains (typically around 10-15) by the league minimum salary.

I took a look at last year’s number and would estimate that this year the pre-arb number will be around $4 million.

That means the estimated payroll is about $158 million for 2021 as things stand. $19 million below last year’s total. 

I agree that it is unwise for those to expect $30+ million in spending available. It could be the case, but there’s nothing to indicate it is.