fanfromday1

I'm as discussed with this team as much as you are, but you can't get rid of the 1st four players that you mentioned. I think it's time to start building for next year and forget about the rest of this one, and I believe that these four guys could be as good, or even better than the players the Angels replace them with.
Iglesias - He's choked in several games this last month, but up until then he was one of the better closers in the AL. Unless we get a couple of really good young flame-throwers in return, lets wait and see if he rebounds. Then make a decision in the off season.
Syndergaard and Ohtani - Thor is coming off of surgery, and so is Ohtani. Because the Angels didn't want to over work them this year they went to a 6 man rotation. I think that next year we may return to a 5 man rotation, which would make the rotation that much stronger. (No weak, overmatched 6th man).
Ward - Yes, Ward played over his head the first 5 or 6 weeks of the season. But he is still more consistent than Adell will ever be. I think Adell (as well as Rengifo & Fletcher), believe that taking a walk is a failed at-bat. (However, to be fair, I think the rest of the Angel line-up would rather strike out than stand-on-base and wait there for the next batter to strike out. They would much rather be sitting in the dugout eating sunflower seeds before Iglesias throws all the seeds back onto the field again).      
True, this team needs some new blood. From the front office all the way down to the coach's and a few new players. But some of the corner stones for a successful team may be in place already. The time to panic is past. It happened during the long losing streak. Now is the time to make a few changes, not a complete overhaul. 

I was among those that were not satisfied with the rotation going into the season.  No issue with getting Syndergaard, but I didn’t want him to be the only significant acquisition.  It seemed like it would have made sense to also get another upper half of the rotation starter.   THAT was the failure of the front office in my opinion.
Rendon and Fletcher getting hurt really damaged the team.  I know Rendon has had injury issues but it sure looked like he was going to finally have a “normal” season.
Most fans expected Marsh and Adell to take significant steps forward to be productive spots in the batting order.  Many were adamant about not trading them for pitching for this exact reason.
Anyway, it appeared to me that the Angels could have been pretty competitive this year (even with a black hole offensively at SS) and probably a need for another really good starter.  I had hoped the team would be in it at the trade deadline and then chasing a Luis Castillo or Montas for the stretch.
Instead, Syndergaard has been OK not great, Rendon and Fletcher both get hurt, and Adell and Marsh are let downs creating more holes in the lineup.
I feel like the Angels have had a mess of bad luck here.
I know everyone wants to blame somebody.  I totally get that.  But (today at least) I am just processing this terrible season as a plan that wasn’t really all that terrible but just went sideways.
Yes I wanted more high end starting pitching and I wanted a shortstop that could hit.  But given the Rendon and Fletcher injuries and the lack of development in Marsh and Adell, that still would have been four punches to the face of the lineup that would have been hard to overcome.
Basically the rotation still needs one more really good starter, but the offense is just flaccid outside of Trout and Ohtani.
Can I really sit here and expect that Minasian was supposed to NOT have a plan that had Rendon at third and Fletcher starting?  Can I really blame Minasian for choosing to hold on to Marsh and Adell instead of trading one or both? (I was fine trading Marsh for pitching but that doesn’t mean keeping him was “wrong” as it was also quite defendable to choose to keep him.)
So the season is a bust.  Shit happens.  I am not really sure this is much more than “shit happens” versus “fire the GM” or “tear it down and rebuild.”
And that doesn’t mean I don’t recognize how annoying it is to lose or how frustrating it can be to have this length of time sucking, “wasting the Trout years” and so on.
The biggest blow to me is the two Crown Jewels of the farm system (Adell and Marsh) not only didn’t deliver here, they probably have very compromised trade value now.  THAT sucks.

Arte, hire a damn President who. knows Baseball instead of your billboard guys. Let that person rebuild the organization. He (or she) gets to hire their own people to fill out the rest of the Front Office positions. The President then makes the budget for payroll limits and player acquisition. He gets to the establish his own structure for the whole organization. He can establish an ‘Angels way to play’ complete with new, better psid instructors and Managers for the Minor League players. 
 
Mostly though, trust the President that you hire and stay out of the way. 

Trade/DFA all the veterans on expiring contracts, sell high on some players, play the kids, and try and get the veterans on multi-year contracts back on track.
Trade: Iglesias, Syndergaard.
Sell High: Ohtani, Ward
DFA: Villar
SP: Detmers, Junk, Sandoval, Silseth, Suarez
RP: Barría, Loup, Ortega, Peguero, Quijada, Tepera, Wantz, Warren
Lineup: Stassi, Walsh, Stefanic, Thaiss, Rengifo, Marsh, Trout, Adell, MacMinnon
Bench: Wallach, Velazquez, Harrison, Thomas.

Rengifo has been a little asshole refusing to work any walks. The last 12 games he has a. 287 batting average but his OBP is the exact same with zero walks. In the previous 94 plate appearances he has a total of 2 walks. This is bullshit from a light hitting middle Infielder. He is one of the reasons the Angels offense sucks. 

Iglesias is the first one I trade. Not because I don’t trust him but more cost versus value.  He’s a closer, he’s going to have good and bad outings like 90% of closers ever. 

Have to remember that it’s year 2 after returning from TJS, where generally the velocity gets to its’ high point.
Syndergaard is sitting in the mid 90s with a solid GB rate.
Imagining him adding another 1-2mph, and it’s very tempting to not only get Ohtani a new contract, but also Syndergaard as well.
Maybe 3 years/$60 million, team option 4th season?    
Only age 30 next season 
They will free up payroll from Upton, Lorenzen, and Bradley.  That’s some $32 million AAV, putting it down to $175 million AAV, some $60 million AAV under tax threshold.
Syndergaard’s AAV would stay similar to this season.
Ohtani, let’s’ say will make $40 million AAV.   That’s what, $34 million AAV over current AAV.
That leaves $26 million AAV.
Three arb cases this off-season should add no more than $10-12 million?
Leaving some $15 million AAV to work with?
Just please, no more big contracts to outside FAs, and no more yearly salaries of over $4-$5 million for late innings relievers.   Just develop their own relievers.

It’s like I’ve said.
The ONLY thing that will rescue this franchise is either Arte Moreno becoming a true baseball team owner, and allowing the money to be there for scouting and development, good FO, good manager and coaches, and solid  support players, and getting out of the way….or
Sell the team to someone who will.
Otherwise, we’re screwed like the Pirates, O’s, and Reds.
You don’t run a baseball franchise like an advertising firm.   In baseball, big splashes are only meant to be the last piece to the puzzle, not the whole puzzle.
Nineteen years, and he still doesn’t get it.
 

Firing Maddon was dumb, IMO. Reactionary and destabilized a team that was already having a tough time. He wasn't perfect and maybe not the answer but it was not the right move to make. I genuinely think the players liked playing under him.

.167 BA, but only .106 BA since May 29 (9-85)
With Villar and Stefanic arriving, either DFA or option Wade and have Velazquez focus on late innings defense in place of Stefanic.

AJ, I must say I admire your commitment to providing interesting content to this site.  You're a talented guy.  You certainly don't "mail it in" - you put a lot of thought and work into your stuff.  Good job.

A common reaction for fans when their team is not very good is some variation of, "Tear it all down! Get rid of these schlubs and get better players!" In the case of the Angels, the most extreme version would entail trading Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani for a mythical basket of prospects.
This is understandable, and I imagine anyone reading this has felt this way to varying degrees over the last month or two. While the Angels have played a bit better of late, 10-10 since their 14-game losing streak and 7-5 in their last 12 games, they're still 4 games below .500 (37-41) and and even if they manage to have their first winning season since 2015 they're unlikely to make the playoffs. 
Part 1: 2022 - Are You Saying There's a Chance?
But wait a minute...are they unlikely to reach the playoffs? They're currently just 4.5 games out of the second wildcard spot, with only them teams ahead of them. Right now the Guardians (39-34) and Rays (40-35) are tied for the 2nd wildcard berth, with Texas (36-38) 3.5 GB. Then the Angels, Mariners and White Sox are all 4.5 GB.
Meaning, they're not out of it - not yet, at least.
So if you're the Angels, you're not thinking about a fire-sale - at least not yet. Perry Minasian will likely make a fuller assessment at the All-Star Break. Between now and then, the Angels have a mixed schedule, playing 8 games against really good teams (6 vs. the Astros, 2 vs. the Dodgers), and 6 games vs. pretty bad teams (2 vs. the Marlins, 4 vs the Orioles).
The 2nd half of the season begins on July 22, when the Angels play 3 games in Atlanta, 3 in Kansas City, and then finish up the month with 4 in Anaheim vs the Rangers.
So that gives us 24 games before the August 2 trade deadline, 14 before the ASB, 10 after; 11 of those games are against contenders (Astros, Dodgers, Braves), 13 of them vs. mediocre to bad teams (Marlins, Orioles, Royals, Rangers).
Meaning, while there's one significant check-point at the All-Star Break, it may come down to the wire, in terms of what Perry Minasian will do by the trade deadline. As always, there are three basic possibilities:
Sellers: If it is clear that the Angels are not a contender--meaning, if they haven't made up any ground and remain below .500--Minasian will likely see if he can swap a handful of players for prospects: Noah Syndergaard, Michael Lorenzen, Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera, Archie Bradley, maybe even guys like Matt Duffy and Tyler Wade, if he can find any takers. The idea being, trim the fat, add to the farm, and save a few bucks in the process. That said, only Syndergaard and Lorenzen have significant trade value; someone might bite on Loup or Tepera, but their multi-year contracts--not to mention, mediocre performance--reduce their value.
Buyers: The Angels have a legit shot - they are over .500 and playing well, so Minasian might decide to go for it and acquire players that can help in the stretch run. What he would do in such an instance is anyone's guess, but don't be surprised if he uses Jo Adell and/or possibly someone like Jeremiah Jackson and one of those solid AA arms in a trade or two to augment the team. What do they need? Depth, depth, depth - players to raise the floor of the second half of the lineup and bullpen, and possibly a starting pitcher.
Stand pat: If the Angels are hovering around .500 (which is the most likely scenario, in my opinion), and they're not clearly buyers or sellers, Minasian will likely stand pat - or at least not make any significant moves. This is the place the Angels have found themselves in most years in recent history.
A lot of Minasian's decision will likely be based just as much--if not more so--on trajectory and momentum, as it is on actual wins and losses. Meaning, if the Angels continue as-is until the ASB and then get hot after, he may look to buy. Or if the Angels get hot now, but then struggle after the break, he may sell.
Wild trade idea: Jo Adell to the Blue Jays for prospect Gabriel Moreno (C). Moreno is one of the best catching prospects and baseball, Fangraphs has him at 60 FV, but somewhat superfluous with Alejandro Kirk. Adell's last FV was also 60, and might benefit from a change in scenery. If the Angels are sellers and the Blue Jays feel they need another starter, they can throw in Syndergaard or Lorenzen for another prospect, perhaps Ricky Tiedemann or CJ Van Eyk.
Part 2: 2023 and Beyond
So what about next year and beyond? If the Angels suffer their 7th losing season in a row, or at least miss the playoffs for the 8th year in a row, does Minasian tear it all down?
The simple--and, I think, unequivocal--answer is: No. Or should I say, NO. It ain't gonna happen. The biggest weakness of the club also implies its strength: A lack of depth beyond significant star-caliber talent. A true rebuild would involve trading Shohei Ohtani, and you just don't trade a historic player like him, pretty much no matter what. Not only is he a huge draw to fans (and thus the economic bottom line), but trading arguably the most valuable player in the major leagues is a big f-you to Mike Trout and the rest. And let me remind you: Trout is the best thing to ever happen to this franchise (aside from 2002, of course).
A Brief Detour Into Trout Greatness
Consider that Trout turns 31 in August. He isn't getting younger, and he is--as far as we know--committed to playing the rest of his career as an Angel if he feels like he has a chance to win a World Series. He's important; what he wants is important. Not only is he the greatest Angel ever, he's one of the greatest players ever to play baseball. Lest you need reminding:
42nd all-time in position player fWAR at 79.9, and on-pace to finish in the 30-34th range by the end of the year (the nine players ahead of him are within 4.8 WAR). 5th highest JAWS (average of career + best seven years bWAR) among centerfielders, behind only Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, and Mickey Mantle. Meaning, Trout is already probably the 5th greatest center fielder of all time - ahead of guys like Joe DiMaggio and Ken Griffey Jr. 28th in JAWS among all position players, and will likely end the season in the top 25. 3rd highest WAR7 (65.1) among all center fielders, behind only Mays (73.5) and Cobb (69.0), and just ahead of Mantle (64.7). Tied with Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig, and Rogers Hornsby with a career fWAR of 173, behind only Babe Ruth (197) and Ted Williams (188), and just ahead of Mantle (170). Even as his bat inevitably declines at some point, he's likely going to finish his career with at least a 160 wRC+, which only eight players have done.  So we're talking about a guy who is already one of the 25 or so greatest position players of all time, one of the five best center fielders of all time, and likely to end his career in the top 10 in both JAWS and career WAR, and already one of the six or seven greatest hitters of all time, and will end his career in the top 10. Notice that I wrote "just ahead of Mantle" twice, which tells us all we need to know about Trout: he's basically been a modernized, updated version of Mantle.
You just don't punt with a player like that. You don't tell him, "Sorry, but we're not going to be competitive again until you're probably starting to decline." Especially when the team has a lot of supporting talent, as we'll get into momentarily.
Back to the Angels 
Let's assume a few things:
Taylor Ward's breakthrough is legitimate; maybe not 170 wRC+ superstar level, but let's say he's a bonafide 4+ WAR, 140+ wRC+ player. Anthony Rendon is no longer a superstar, but still a good player. He struggled with injuries again this year and produced only 0.9 WAR and 105 wRC+ in 45 games, but that's still a pace for about 3 WAR over a full season, which is pretty much the definition of "quality regular." The big question is whether he can stay healthy; if he can, he's at least a 3-4 WAR player, maybe better. If not, he'll give solid play while he's relatively healthy. Luis Rengifo is establishing himself as a quality major leaguer. No, he's not a star and likely never will be, but he's played very well for the last week or two, and I think it is legit. So let's say he's a solid, average regular, and thus solves one of the big holes in the middle infield for the next few years. David Fletcher will bounce back. There's reason to believe that his injury was chronic and hampering him all of last year. No, he's unlikely to be the borderline star of 2020 over a full season, but if he can return to 2018-19 levels, he's a quality regular. Brandon Marsh will improve. He's shown flashes of being a very good player, but has really struggled over the last month and a half. But he'll get there; and combining excellent defense with at least league average hitting (and probably better), equals a good player. So now we have a lineup for 2023 that includes two superstars (Trout, Ohtani), one or two stars (Ward, Rendon), and five quality regulars (Walsh, Stassi, Fletcher, Rengifo, Marsh). 
But that just gives us a good starting lineup - and doesn't address one of the main problems the Angels have faced this year, which is depth (the other being the bullpen). But depth is far easier to solve than the core of your team. The Angels can sign better bench players - it isn't that hard - and presumably Minasian is smart enough to realize just how much the lack of depth behind the starting group has hurt the team. Stars and scrubs doesn't work; you need more "in the middle," and you need better back-up plans for if and when some of your regulars go down with injury.
As far as the pitching staff goes, Ohtani and Patrick Sandoval are the only locks for next year's rotation, although we can probably assume Reid Detmers will be back at some point this year and a lock for the rotation next. The Angels will probably also give a rotation spot to one or two of Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez, and possibly even prospects Chase Silseth, Ky Bush, Sam Bachman, Mason Erla, etc. So really, we're talking one or two free agent signings, possibly either Noah Syndergaard or Michael Lorenzen. And more importantly, the Angels have help on the way, with numerous arms in AA and AAA that could end up as major league starters.
Barring trades, the bullpen is probably Iglesias, Loup, Tepera, Herget, and...well, some guys. But here is the other hard lesson I hope Minasian learns: Your best bet for building a bullpen is with homegrown arms, namely, an excess of minor league starters ready for the major leagues. To be fair to both Minasian and Eppler, the Angels simply haven't had that in recent memory, but very shortly they will. Not just the names mentioned above, but also possibly Adam Seminaris, Coleman Crow, and Davis Daniel. Actual minor league relievers like Luke Murphy and Robinson Pina may also get a look either later this year or next.
Furthermore, it may be wise for the Angels to transition one or both of Bachman and Chris Rodriguez to relief duties, as neither are likely to hold up over a full season of starting pitching. Maybe Bachman still deserves the benefit of the doubt, but at this point I'd rather see a good chance of Chris Rodriguez as a reliever than a poor chance of him as a starter. 
The point being, next year's bullpen is solvable largely from within. Very shortly the Angels will have a luxury that they haven't had in recent memory: a wealth of minor league arms on the cusp of major league readiness. 
So here's a hypothetical 26-man roster for Opening Day, 2023:
C. Stassi, Thaiss (or Humphreys, or possible free agent signing)
IF: Rendon, Walsh, Fletcher, Rengifo, Stefanic, free agent (or two)
OF: Trout, Ward, Marsh, Adell
SP: Ohtani, Sandoval, free agent (or Syndergaard/Lorenzen), Detmers, two of Suarez/Canning/Silseth/Erla/Bush/etc
RP: Iglesias, Loup, Tepera, Herget, Daniel/Erla/Bush/Bachman/C-Rod/Murphy/etc
One option that would make a lot of sense and I wouldn't be surprised to see is Minasian goes after a premier shortstop--Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, or Dansby Swanson--then gives Rengifo the starting job at 2B, which makes Fletcher the utility infielder, as he can play any position reasonably well. But it is hard imaigning them spending big on a free agent with a looming possible/hopeful Ohtani contract. Alternately, the budget approach would be to sign someone like Kike Hernandez or Didi Gregorius to platoon with Rengifo and Fletcher.
In other words, where this year we had the problem of Fletcher going down and being replaced by scrubs like Velazquez and Wade, or Rendon being replaced by Duffy. next year it could be Turner/Bogaerts/Swanson being replaced by Fletcher. Or at least, rather than Duffy, Velazquez and Wade getting tons of playing time, you'd have an improving Rengifo, a healthy Fletcher, and Stefanic.
Prospect Jeremiah Jackson will be in AAA next year and provides an interesting depth option if a major league regular goes down. Livan Soto also continues to play reasonably well in AA, and may end up as a solid bench player.
Conclusion
The core of the team is good, too good to rebuild. They Angels have a wealth of minor league arms that could help in the near future, to fill out the rotation and bulk up the bullpen. They also have some minor league options for the infield, though could use upgrading and greater depth. But again, they're simply not going to rebuild - not now, and not next year. The only way they do a full rebuild is if both of two things happen: They lose Ohtani to free agency and Trout demands a trade. And none of us want to see either of those happen.

Good, go with
1B Walsh
2B Stefanic
SS Rengifo
3B Villar
Velazquez and Duffy on the bench (MacKinnon up until Duffy is back), DFA Wade.

Between his hamstring and shoulder injuries he gets a pass. But to your point, he's still doing very well considering he's playing through a couple injuries that can be tough to play through. 
Unfortunately this team needs him to start playing like his former super elite self. Walsh needs to play like he did at the end of 2020 and the first half of the 2021 season as well.
Would really love for the Angels to make a deal with the Reds to get both Mahle and Drury so that they can make a run! 

I doubt he trades anyone under contract beyond this year.
Someone will probably bite on Bradley and Lorenzen for a Andrew Heaney/Tony Watson type return. I could see them holding on to Syndergaard any trying to extend him.
 
I think now’s the time to trade Ohtani. A team would get him for 2 playoff runs instead of 1 and the Angels won’t have to worry about his unknown arb or extension number for 2023 that would cloud how much they can spend this offseason.

It is Perry Minasian, not Joe Maddon, who is responsible for the main sources of the Angels woes this year:
- A shitty bullpen. 
- No depth.
Perry's lone good move was Lorenzen. Syndergaard is ok, but an overpay. Raisel has blown some big saves. Loup, Tepera, Bradley are trash.
His solution to depth was Wade, Velazquez, Lagares, Mayfield, Duffy...most of these guys shouldn't even be bench players, but AAA depth, and all of them are getting way too much playing time.
So Arte, you fired the wrong guy. Perry Minasian is a shitty GM.

Aaron Judge will never be as good as he is this year. He's got the talent - and is one of the best hitters in baseball - but he's doing what a lot of guys do: holding it together during his walk year. Signing Judge would probably be the next in a line of never-ending albatross contracts that end up as disasters. Big guys like Judge rarely age well.
If Arte wants to go in on a big free agent, I'd prefer Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts. Both fill a need more than Judge does, and both--I think--will age better.

There is leadership and has always been. Currently there is Trout but we've had Upton and Pujols there too. 
To me, i'm done looking at the players, coaches and GMs for answers. 
Since the 2015 season ended we've burnt through 2 GMs and 3 managers all while maintaining a top payroll yet never having a winning record. 
It's not a clubhouse issue. It's an owner issue at this point. 

Maddon is the one who needs the day off. His brain is overworked trying to invent new line-ups.

Maddon is the one who needs the day off. His brain is overworked trying to invent new line-ups.

Leave it to the two Chicago teams to screw things up. Otherwise, three cities could be leading every division in MLB.
P.S. Technically, the Angel's are located in LA only because ownership doesn't know where Orange County ends and LA's trashy county begins.   

It's not $130-$140million, but last year Trout, Pujols, Rendon, and Upton were $112m in '20. The same quartet was $116m in '21. 65% of payroll both years for four players.
Obviously there's still a big gap, and that was only two years, and there's certainly an argument that committing so much of payroll to four players is beyond dumb as it limits spending for other needs, but I do think it's fair to say there is some reason to believe that they could allocate a stupid amount of money to four players. 
Payroll has held around $180m. If he bumped it up to $205m, 65% of payroll would land in around $133m, or something arguably what Ohtani, Trout, Rendon, and Correa could cost. 

Develop them.  
Look at Ohtani - he became a top-of-the-rotation caliber SP this year.  Also - a healthy Syndergaard is very much a top-of-the-rotation SP, too.
As it stands, we have two guys who profile as those kinds of SPs.  While having a rotation full of them would be nice, having 2 is a very good start.  The key thing we need beyond that is solid mid-rotation SPs AND quality backend SP depth.
Historically, we've struggled a lot with having quality depth.  Each organization needs effectively around 9-10 SPs who can step in and make starts, given how many injuries occur over a full year.
As it stands now, we have the following SPs:  Ohtani, Syndergaard, Sandoval, Suarez, Lorenzen, Barria, Canning, Detmers, Junk.
I'd say we have two top-of-the rotation caliber SPs, several who profile as solid mid-rotation guys (Sandoval, Suarez, possibly Canning, possibly Detmers), and multiple backend SPs (Lorezen maybe, Barria, Junk).  Now that said, both Canning and Detmers could probably use some further development before they're counting on again, which is why having another SP option would help improve our overall depth and prevent us from having to utilize subpar options to start games.
This actually holds true for the offense, too.  When injuries mounted last year, we were rolling out some pretty awful lineups due to a lack of depth.

As I see it, there are two types of teams that make the postseason: Great teams like the Dodgers, who are highly likely to make it, barring catastrophe, and pretty good teams that have a wide swing of possible outcomes, like the Cardinals this year, who were about average in terms of hitting and pitching, but played great defense to send them over the edge.
This, of course, supports @Inside Pitch's concerns about the defense - it really needs to be addressed.
But my point is, you don't have to be a great team to make the playoffs. Obviously it helps, and it would be nice to essentially be a write-in every year like the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, etc. But most playoff teams aren't like that. The Angels are definitely in the category of "swingy teams."
Minasian hasn't turned the Angels into a powerhouse, but I think his acquisitions--plus better health from Trout and Rendon, plus a developing young pitching staff--should yield more wins next year. 

The caveat to this conversation is how many playoff teams will be in each league.  The MLB proposed a 14-team playoff field, whereas the players proposed a 12-team playoff field.  It does seem playoffs will expand.
If we have a 14 team playoff field, the 7th best team in the AL last year had 90 wins.  In 2019, they had 84 wins.  In 2018, they had 89 wins.  In 2017, they had 80 wins.
So in terms of a 14 team playoff field, I think we absolutely have a chance, but we'd need both Trout and Rendon to be healthy and perform at their normal level.  That, along with Ohtani having a similar year as he did last year, would likely give us a decent shot.
Adding a healthy Trout and Rendon to last year's team would have probably at least made us an 85 win team.