if you have any questions for the Angels broadcaster you can submit them here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSesDzb2X4caOhEqxY_JemVwiWOtjeYSt5MJ2Xxzw1yrT6inmg/viewform
Basically, the Angels should just:
- Sign Snell
- Sign JD Martinez
- Sign JD Davis
- Trade Sandoval for a young second basemen
- Trade Jo Adell
All before Opening Day in two weeks. Sound good?
/s
So yeah Caden Dana DEFINITELY passes the eye test. The stuff, the delivery, and the mound presence and he's still just 20 in his first big league camp lol
It's nothing new, it is a meaningless ST game, but it's always so easy to see why scouts fawn on Adell. The amount of bat speed he showed on that triple was nuts, dude waited on that pitch forever and still was able to get the bat around enough to pull it to the gap.
Whenever it clicks for him, if it clicks for him, he's going to be fun to watch. Dude seems to feed on his own good performance too.
Perhaps what defines the 2024 Angels, to me at least, is the wide range of variance between best and worst-case scenarios, that is such scenarios that exist within the realm of possibility. Meaning, nearly every player--with only a couple exceptions (e.g. Brandon Drury) has a huge range of reasonably possible outcomes.
In what follows, I will look at the hitters and suggest what I see as their ceilings and floors, and where I think they'll end up in 2024 and beyond. Please note, this isn't an actual series of projections - it is more a ramble, with a bit of prediction thrown in for each player as to where I think they'll end up. I did a set of stat predictions a couple months ago which I deliberating didn't look back on, but these are more general.
C LOGAN O'HOPPE
Best: Becomes a bonafide first tier star catcher - not Adley Rutschman and maybe not Will Smith, but not far behind. In this best-case scenario, an off year is 3 WAR and only due to missing time; a typical year is more like 4-5 WAR, and he has one or two seasons above the 5 WAR mark. He easily becomes the all-time Angels WAR catcher leader, and before reaching free agency.
Worst: Aside from the injury-bug, the worry would be that he doesn't really iron out his defensive kinks and struggles to make contact. Still, worst-case is the strong side of a platoon, but more of a 2 WAR in 100 games type than a 4 WAR in 120 games type.
My prediction: The variance for Logan isn't huge, but there's still a range of outcomes, but none of them bad - more "solid to very good." I see more of a second tier catcher being the most likely scenario - a quality regular to borderline star type (3-4 WAR) who is a good captain of the team, sort of like Jason Varitek. Meaning, he won't be confused for Rutschman (let alone Gary Carter), but he'll have some years in the top five WAR for catchers, but mostly more in the #5-10 range.
1B NOLAN SCHANUEL
Best: If he makes enough good contact to regularly hit .300, with his plate discipline he could put up gaudy OBPs. And if he develops even average power, he's a "3-4-5" threat and a star hitter. Sort of like Nick Johnson, if he had been able to stay healthy.
Worst: With that downward swing, there's a chance he never develops any power at all and becomes a Doug Mientkiewicz type - a nice guy to have on your roster, but more of a platoon guy or fringe starter.
My Prediction: I think he'll probably be more of a .280ish hitter than .300ish, but still have seasons above the .400 OBP mark. I'm more dubious about the power - his downward swing leads to a lot of ground balls, no matter how strong he gets. Still, he's too big and strong not to hit a few out of the park, but I see a peak season being something like .290/.420/.450, which is plenty good enough for me.
2B BRANDON DRURY
Best: More of the same.
Worst: More of the same, but getting older, and the defense gets shakier.
My Prediction: Drury is probably the guy with the least variance of any hitter likely to see substantial playing time: What you see (or what we've seen) is what you get. I think the only questions are how much playing time he gets and where he plays, which depends largely on Rengifo and Rendon. So my prediction is "more of the same," but not sure how much of it. He's a useful guy to have around, but he'd be really useful if he could back-up Rendon (he played 67 games at 3B in 2022).
SS ZACH NETO
Best: I like the Dustin Pedroia comp, with a significantly lower batting average but playing Gold Glove defense - so similar overall value. This is pretty optimistic, though, but I could see it happen.
Worst: Has trouble getting away from the injury bug, and becomes known as an undisciplined hitter, but still a solid starting shortstop. But rather than the 5 WAR stud of the best-case scenario, he's more of a 2-3 WAR guy.
My prediction: Zach Neto is a ballplayer - I just love the energy he brings to the team, sort of the anti-Rendon. I do think he'll be prone to occasional injuries and never be quite the hitter Pedroia was, but he'll have some really good seasons, with a good probability of reaching his best-case scenario, at least in his peak. But it might take a few ups and downs to get there. I think 2024 will be a continuation and gradual improvement from 2023, so something like .250/.330/.420.
3B ANTHONY RENDON
Best: He makes baseball a top priority, avoids the injury bug and has a bit of a career renaissance, playing about 350 games over the last three years of his contract and putting up 10+ WAR. Yeah, right.
Worst: More of the last three years. Arte releases him sometime in 2025.
My Prediction: I can't imagine how it can possibly continue to be as bad as it has been the last few years, but I would be surprised if Rendon ever plays 130 games again, and maybe not even 120. Part of the problem is that he's a momentum hitter and is never healthy enough to get into a groove. If he manages to play 110-120 games, he'll put up better numbers (maybe .270/.380/.450), but he's never going to be a star again. And that is a pretty big "if." I honestly don't know what to predict, as I could see a continuation of the last few years, or a scenario where the youthful energy of some of the guys above him on this list rubs off and he has a nice next couple years as the Roger Dorn of the Angels.
LF TAYLOR WARD
Best: He's not only back, but he finds the star hitter form that we've seen for parts of the last two years, and is an elite hitter for the next few years, maybe something like .290/.370/.550 with 30 HR.
Worst: He's never the same - either neurological, psychological, or just an inability to stay healthy. Ends up as a 4OF/DH type.
My Prediction: Ward has one of the widest range of possibilities on a team with a lot of players with a wide range of possibilities. For whatever reason, I remain bullish on Ward: I think he's going to have several really good years in the 140 wRC+, 4-5 WAR range, and be the team's second best hitter, at least in 2024. But I've been over-optimistic before.
CF MIKE TROUT
Best: Let's play a game of imagination and time travel to the end of Trout's contract in 2030 and do a career retrospective. It turns out that Trout just had some terribly bad luck for a few years in 2021-23 (they were all different injuries, right?!), but then righted the ship in 2024 and had a career renaissance. Maybe not quite vintage Trout, but he had several years around 7 WAR, with one truly special one in the 8-9 WAR range, winning his 4th MVP award. He started trending down in 2027 or so at age 35, but it was gradual and he finished his career with 127 WAR, just edging Stan Musial out of the top 10. You might say that I'm a dreamer...but I'm not the only one...
Worst: Ken Griffey III. He'll still hit, but the injury-prone label is real, and the hitting--while flashing towards Ye Olde Days at times--is inconsistent and not what it was. It will be hard to watch for the next seven seasons, as Trout just squeaks above the 100 WAR mark for his career, which would be under 30 WAR in his last eleven seasons after 70 WAR in his first eight.
My Prediction: I'm going to be bullish again, as I think Trout could do something similar to 2022 (it was just a year ago, afterall); with a bit of better health (130ish games), he could reach the 7 WAR mark. The next few years will be a bit of a comeback for him, just not the Trout of 2012-19. He'll probably miss chunks of time over the rest of his career, but have good spells and just pass Mickey Mantle (112.3) on the fWAR chart.
OF MICKEY MONIAK
Best: He learns to take a pitch and builds on 2023, but with more walks. Not a star, but a good overall player who is known for dangerous spells when he's hitting everything.
Worst: No plate discipline and 2023's good parts turn out to be a fluke. Minor league depth or an erratic 4th outfielder.
My Prediction: Remember Jeff Francoeur? That's the type of career I think Moniak might have, with minor cosmetic differences. He probably has no place starting for a contender, but will find gigs on various teams over the next decade. I do think he loses a starting job to the next guy on this list, sometime before the ASB and, if Trout, Ward, and Adell are healthy, could be shipped off in July.
OF JO ADELL
Best: Basically what we thought his upside would be a couple years ago. Adell kind of reminds me of Dave Winfield, but with more power and significantly less contact ability. Maybe it is the tall, athletic build. But the best-case scenario might be Winfield in 1982 (.280/.331/.560 with 37 HR), but maybe even more HR and a bit lower average.
Worst: More of the same and the Angels swap him for a rondon in July to some team thinking they can do better (which, knowing the Angels, they probably will).
My Prediction: Is it foolish to think that this could finally be the year? He probably won't be the star we hoped for, but he could make enough contact and develop enough discipline to leverage that power. In other words, as much as my mental faculties say that Adell is a bust, my gut still sees a good ball player. I still think he'll hit 40 HR at some point in his career; probably not this year because he's unlikely to get enough plate appearances--and I think needs several years of building success to get there--but I could see something like 110-120 games, .250/.330/.500 with 25+ HR, with even better numbers in 2025.
IF LUIS RENGIFO
Best: Take Rengifo's second half numbers last year (.318/.374/.587 in 47 games) and extend them over a full season, but reduce them a bit for likelihood that he's just a slow starter and he's simply unlikely to be that good for a full season. But it foretells the future. In this scenario, everything comes together and Rengifo hits .290/.350/.500 with solid 2B defense. Can we dream?
Worst: Basically more of the same - which isn't so bad, but the problem is the defense - which is ok, I guess. But he never quite gets out of the fringe starter/UT role.
My Prediction: I'm a fan and think he'll find another level in 2024. Maybe not my best-case scenario, but if you imagine that he'll continue his arc of improvement from 2022 to 2023 to 2024, he could hit .270/.340/.450 or better. Now if he could only polish up that defense a bit...
Pitchers to come...
Me buying into these spring training articles for the past 10 years, thinking the young guys are going to break out and the Angels are heading to the playoffs
I respect a man who puts his kids and marriage before his job. He's right; it's just a job. But he's not a software programmer or ad salesman. Millions of strangers from around the world watch his "job" for entertainment. More than that, so many kids dream of playing Major League Baseball but only a fraction of a percent ever get that chance.
He could show some humility and gratefulness for getting to do something very, very few people ever get to do — AND still prioritize his family life. He makes more than enough money to allow for quality time with wife and kids all throughout the year.
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Swiss Angel Fan got a reaction from jsnpritchett in Gameday Thread (3/11/24): Rangers @ Angels: Sandoval starting
