GregAlso

Anyone who thinks Mike Trout is going to just walk away from $150M because he doesn't like the west coast or doesn't think the Angels can win or doesn't like Mike Scioscia or was offended by last years pay are nuts.
It's 150 million bucks!
He's going to sign. I don't know if he'll give up 3 years of FA or 4, but either way he's going to get another chance at free agency and he can play on the east coast and set a record then.
For now, he's going to just take his 150 million bucks.

So when does the Chuck Finley for the HOF campaign start?  Fin had a better ERA+, struck out more batters in about 800 fewer innings and oh yeah -- he posted a higher WAR over that time too, 55.9.

I really don't agree with Morris being deserving. 
 
Player A career fWAR: 52.7
Player B career fWAR: 53.3
 
Player A is Jack Morris. Player B is Kevin Appier. 
 
Morris was a nice pitcher but he isn't HOF material. His one great World Series is really making him a more popular candidate. 

Your plan won't work for the reason you just stated. Because "Kendrick and/or Aybar are not that irreplaceable" we will not get much for them. How can you assume we will get anything of much value for two guys that are easy to replace? Why would a GM give up much for two guys he can easily replace? There are no teams out there in desperate need of MIF and if they were Drew is still available. Drop the trade Kendrick and Aybar nonsense.

Really good analysis Greg. Right now, on paper, this team is better both offensively and pitching wise. Subtracting all the starts from Blanton and Hanson and replacing them with Santiago and Skaggs makes this team substantially better. Throw in a Tanaka and a Garza, and we have done a major improvement without having to do a total overhaul. I'm getting excited for 2014!

I talked to Mulder tonight and he said the injuries weren't really why he retired, not directly anyway. He said his mechanics got so out of whack from pitching around the injuries that he couldn't be effective. Now he believes he's solved that problem.
Whether he can be effective remains to be seen, but I think it will be a performance issue, not a Madson-like endless rehab issue, which is what you could have with Santana.
This is more comparable to the Chad Cordero story. He never made it because the stuff didn't come back, but cost the Angels nothing more than a minor league salary to let him find out.

Save the date, book your flight and/or hotel.
Many more details coming soon, but I know a lot of you wanted a hard date to plan for that weekend, so there it is.

Out of touch with reality...

Out of touch with reality...

Fletcher was talking about contracts. The CBT is calculated at the end of the season based on contracts signed before opening day. If a contract is signed after opening day and doesn't change the $ for this year then the AAV is calculated in the following year. That is how the Angels can extend Trout in April or May and not pay till 2015.

That makes him the old school number two hitter but that costs us runs. In reality a #2 hitter gets nearly the same RBI opportunities and more ABs than a #3 hitter.
I don't want Aybar getting many ABs because he makes more outs with them, low OBP. If my lead off guy is getting on more than a third of the time then I want my #2 hitter to drive him in, not give himself up.
If the top 2 guys in the line up up can get on 35-40% of the time and they get more ABs then the team makes fewer outs, has longer sustained rallies, and scores more runs.
Aybar's stolen base ability profiles lower in the lineup where his CS won't hurt as much. His SB will help create more runs in front a singles hitter like Iannetta. His CS is more painful in front of a HR hitter like the heart of the order. Aybar should hit anywhere from 7th to 9th.

First of all, please read this http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by
so we can have an intelligent debate about line up construction, not that it really matters that much.
Calhoun RF
Trout CF
Hamilton LF
Pujols 1B
Freese 3B
Ibanez DH
Kendrick 2B
Conger/Iannetta C
Aybar SS
Ideally Iannetta's OBP has him leading off but he's so stinking slow. Calhoun probably leads off if his OBP is similar to last year but I hate waisting his HRs there, less people on base for him. Pujols bats 4th because he'll get more RBI opportunities there and because Trout is the best hitter on the team (bats second.) Please, before you respond to this post, read the article. <sigh> oh well, I ask too much.

Are you a troll? You can't seriously think this. Based on what factual evidence? Your own opinion?

Failed miserably? In 2013 out of all catchers with 350+PA Iannetta was 9th in wRC+, a comprehensive offensive stat. That's 9th out of 24 catchers! I think your definition of failed miserably needs some adjustment!!

$28 million falls of next years payroll (Wells & Blanton) plenty of money to sign Trout to a long deal. Besides we need a frontline pitcher for when Weaver can't hack it anymore.

Are you a troll? You can't seriously think this. Based on what factual evidence? Your own opinion?

Failed miserably? In 2013 out of all catchers with 350+PA Iannetta was 9th in wRC+, a comprehensive offensive stat. That's 9th out of 24 catchers! I think your definition of failed miserably needs some adjustment!!

Where it hurts is when you have $4M less to spend on someone else. And that $4M could be the difference between having Tanaka/Garza or Capuano/Maholm

The angel of the Lord appeared to them and the glory of the Lord shone round them. They were terrified, but the angel said “Do not be afraid. Listen, I bring you news of great joy, a joy to be shared by the whole people. Today in the town of David a savior has been born to you; he is Christ the Lord.”


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You're missing it dude.
 
You're also assuming Pujols plays his first two months on one leg and misses the entire rest of the season. Hamilton has another poor season, your ace Weaver &  #3 starter miss 7 weeks, we get almost ZERO production from the hot corner and we endure another season of Blanton and Hanson in the rotation. There are other factors as well, including we added two really good starters and will get nearly identical production from Trumbo's replacement at DH.
 
You're also assuming our defense plays as bad as they did in 2013. Hamilton was awful in RF (he's a much better LF) and Trout is a much better CF.
 
If you add Garza + Skaggs/Santiago + Freese and half of those things don't happen in 2014, that's enough IMO to easily win 90+ games.

I have discussed this several times with the Angels front office...
The rules for the CBT are this: if a contract is signed after opening day, and doesn't pay him any salary in that year, it doesn't count. I assume the reason that you couldn't sign him today to a 2015 contract is you can't have contracts that skip years, otherwise you could sign him to 10 different one-year contracts and avoid the whole AAV question. But if his 2014 contract is already ticking, then he can get one for 2015.
I'll also say this that I have said on other threads: there is no reason to pay him anything extravagant (more than 600k) in 2014 unless you believe that he's the kind of guy who will be upset and pouty that a system that's been in place for years doesn't apply to him because he's special. If you think that about him, you don't think much of him.
In reality, it's Trout's agent, not Trout, that is a little whiny about the whole thing. His agent is the one who screwed him last year by making it an issue.
Trout's fair market value is $20M. If you pay him $600K or $1M or $3M or $5M you are still screwing him. Those are the rules. Teams get to screw you for three years. Players get to screw the teams for most of the rest of their careers.

That makes him the old school number two hitter but that costs us runs. In reality a #2 hitter gets nearly the same RBI opportunities and more ABs than a #3 hitter.
I don't want Aybar getting many ABs because he makes more outs with them, low OBP. If my lead off guy is getting on more than a third of the time then I want my #2 hitter to drive him in, not give himself up.
If the top 2 guys in the line up up can get on 35-40% of the time and they get more ABs then the team makes fewer outs, has longer sustained rallies, and scores more runs.
Aybar's stolen base ability profiles lower in the lineup where his CS won't hurt as much. His SB will help create more runs in front a singles hitter like Iannetta. His CS is more painful in front of a HR hitter like the heart of the order. Aybar should hit anywhere from 7th to 9th.

Yep, if there's one demographic that Disneyland lacks is Asian Tourists.

First of all, please read this http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by
so we can have an intelligent debate about line up construction, not that it really matters that much.
Calhoun RF
Trout CF
Hamilton LF
Pujols 1B
Freese 3B
Ibanez DH
Kendrick 2B
Conger/Iannetta C
Aybar SS
Ideally Iannetta's OBP has him leading off but he's so stinking slow. Calhoun probably leads off if his OBP is similar to last year but I hate waisting his HRs there, less people on base for him. Pujols bats 4th because he'll get more RBI opportunities there and because Trout is the best hitter on the team (bats second.) Please, before you respond to this post, read the article. <sigh> oh well, I ask too much.

First of all, please read this http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by
so we can have an intelligent debate about line up construction, not that it really matters that much.
Calhoun RF
Trout CF
Hamilton LF
Pujols 1B
Freese 3B
Ibanez DH
Kendrick 2B
Conger/Iannetta C
Aybar SS
Ideally Iannetta's OBP has him leading off but he's so stinking slow. Calhoun probably leads off if his OBP is similar to last year but I hate waisting his HRs there, less people on base for him. Pujols bats 4th because he'll get more RBI opportunities there and because Trout is the best hitter on the team (bats second.) Please, before you respond to this post, read the article. <sigh> oh well, I ask too much.