Pancake Bear

The problem is Moreno can't decide what kind of owner he wants to be and is running the team like a dude with multiple personalities. Is he a big market owner or is yacht fuel his driving passion in life? Because if you're not going to trade him, you need to at least be willing to be in the ballpark of what he got - and we now know it isn't really $700m in terms of value, it's around $450 as far as MLBPA is concerned. That is very doable, especially for a player as uniquely valuable off the field like Shohei.

My assumption is that either (or both) that Ohtani was asking for deferred money to be turned into team ownership shares upon his retirement or that Arte is not planning on owning the team in ten years. He's closer to 80 than 70 and has already run a sell-the-team trial balloon once, so I'd be shocked if he's still running the show in five years. I can't imagine that in a few years the contract will look nearly as valuable, and it may be that, like with the Dodgers, Ohtani wanted an opt out if Moreno sells or Minasian leaves. That also is potentially problematic for Moreno.

The problem is, if he knew he wasn't going to go the distance and do what whatever was necessary, he should have traded him. Basically, it seems like Arte is thinking, "Screw it, I'm not planning on owning the team in three years, so I don't give a shit about prospects - let's take one last run before Ohtani leaves. Sure, it's a long shot, but it's my best shot to win as an owner." 

It still pisses me off, but if Arte doesn't significantly reduce payroll and Minasian makes some smart acquisitions, we aren't necessarily a bad team. In fact we could end up being a surprisingly good one. At least until Trout gets injured again. 

Arte just did a Buzzie Bavasi on the modern day Babe Ruth. What an idiot. 

Remind me when it came out that his accuser totally faked the whole thing, because it sure as hell wasn't two years ago. It was like a couple of months ago. I think most teams are still leery, though, of potential bad publicity and the distraction inherent to bringing in a guy like Bauer, and I get that, but he deserves another chance.

Ohtani. Getting someone his age and talent level was like winning the lottery. I was over the moon when he picked us. Pujols was a close second, but I was slightly nervous about the length of the deal. Never expected it to go bad so fast, though. 

Bauer's team in Japan wants him back. Some people seem to act as if everyone he has ever played with hates him when that is demonstrably untrue. And honestly, blackballing him is basically encouraging more of that same kind of targeting of professional ball players because they'll be afraid to refuse extortion or they might get forced out of MLB like Bauer effectively has been. 

To be clear, if the clubhouse vets like Trout don't want him, we should absolutely not sign him, but saying unequivocally you won't watch the Angels if they sign him is really a really dumb statement. 

18 minutes ago, mmc said:

I will absolutely refuse to watch the Angels next season if they sign Trevor Bauer

Then you'd be an idiot. 

12 minutes ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Okay, then you think the Dodgers have just paid Ohtani a heavily front-loaded 10 year deal.  $1.202 billion paid in the first year ($2 million salary, plus $1.2 billion ownership asset), 2 million for the next 9 years.  No $68 million dollar payments beginning 2034, just the 25% stake.

The value of that deal is $1.22 billion.  Current day value.  No future discounting required.

You seriously think that's what Ohtani got?

I'm just trying to help ya'll understand that any ownership share will be closer to 2.5% than 25%.

Reading is tough, huh? I guess you must be blinded by your own genius. It's 15%. The only person who said 25% was Geoff,  and I'm pretty sure he didn't check current value and was just throwing out a number. 

6 minutes ago, Lazorko Saves said:

What a minute, people think what?  Shohei gets his $700 million plus a 25% stake of a team that's currently valued at $4.8 billion.  So you think Shohei is actually getting $1.9 billion?

Ya'll bonkers.

Keep in mind, that in 2034 the Dodgers will almost certainly be worth $10 billion or so.

Or do you think Shohei will use the $700 million cash to buy a 25% stake in the year 2043, once he's got all the payouts?  By 2043 the Dodgers will likely be worth about $20 billion, but the Dodgers are willing to give him a 25% stake for only $0.7b?

Ya'll need to go back to junior high school math and economics classes.

25% is just throwing out a number. I doubt Geoff did the math on it. I think it's a 100% certainty that he's agreed on an ownership stakes deal. Passan literally said that is what Ohtani was asking for, and the deal is structured in a way that works that way. And no, I don't think it'll be in 2043. I think the deferrals will be essentially cancelled at his retirement and traded in for ownership shares and that has already been agreed on - I think the deal was contingent on it. 

But sure, call us idiots.

30 minutes ago, Chuck said:

 

This is 100% what is happening. 

Did anyone else see this? 

Shohei isn't just the greatest player of all time, he's also a freaking business genius. 

Newsom and Shohei:

Boob Nightengale saying the quiet part out loud.  

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

On the field, no Ohtani can't be with 70 million per year. But seeing as he's with 17-24 million in advertising alone, then whatever companies begin sponsoring Dodger games and post game interviews, as well as media exposure internationally, on top of the boost in tickets and merchandise alone that he brings....

Yes Ohtani can be worth 70 million per year regardless of how he performs, at least in the immediate. But familiarity will also set in after a few years and as his production decreases in his mid-30's, particularly if he's injured and not on the field, 70 million is going to be harder to justify. 

I think in the end, all things considered, yes, he'll be worth the 700 million. Not more. 

In the end? Maybe. The deferrals will help a lot, but he still has to stay healthy, because his value drops big time if he can't. However, that looney toons article from The Athletic that said he'll be worth it in 6-7 years? That's just stupid. 

I said a week or two ago that the numbers being reported were crazy. I wanted him back, but $700m for a guy who is about to turn 30 during this next season and has already had two major elbow surgeries is bananas. Dodgers and Mets can afford that, but I doubt anyone else could. If we paid him that much, I would've said I don't see how that helps us since he's just a DH this season and we have no money for anything else.

I hope he does well, because Shohei is the goat, but I suspect the Dodgers will regret the contract. But it doesn't bother me especially since I don't have any obnoxious Dodger fans for friends and we rarely play them. 

Go hit up the Brewers for Burnes and Yellich. 

It'll pay for itself in six or seven years? The hell it will. 

9 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I was joking in that post.  The guy they signed is a complete bust.

Then I'd definitely consider SF a legit possibility. More so than LA and Toronto, that's for sure. 

13 minutes ago, Angels_Make_Me_Drink said:

SF and Anaheim are the only two organizations that haven't really had any leaks from front office or media, right?

SF just grabbed a DH, didn't they? I'd assume they're out at this point, although I would've considered them a sneaky pick to get him before that. 

I've been away with my family all day so I haven't been able to comment on today's craziness, but I've been following Twitter through it all. 

I just have to say, I don't see any world in which Ohtani goes to Toronto. It didn't make the slightest sense to me before today and if he was leaning that way before, I have to think today killed any interest he might have had in going there. 

Dude insists on privacy. Anaheim media gives him that. The Angels do not force him to do anything he doesn't want to. Even in LA that probably won't fly, but Toronto? Would be as bad as the Yankees. He'd be under a microscope constantly and if he was as media shy as he is here, he'd be crucified for it. Toronto media is insane. 

And all the flight tracking lunacy? This is the guy who said he'd hold it against any team that made the process public. You could say the Jays front office had nothing to do with today, but you think Ohtani will care about that? 

IMO, if the finalists are Toronto, Dodgers, and Angels, he's coming back. If he leaves, it'll be for some place like Chicago or Atlanta that no one is taking about because they followed the damn rules. 

10 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

I have expected him to sign elsewhere since at least July, so I'm prepared for that. Dodgers really do make the most sense if he wants to stay in the same area from a comfort standpoint while getting to play for a perennial contender, but I'll continue to hold out hope he ends up signing elsewhere. Let it be the Jays or Giants, that's all I ask

Nah. Canada can go eff itself. 

It will be tomorrow. Ohtani will be announced as returning to the Angels for around $550m over a 12 year contract. Probably announced earlier rather than later. 

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

Some of the board members who fought in WWII might want to weigh in here.

Didn't know we had any centenarians on the board. 

1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I really think it comes down to Dodgers vs Angels. 
Toronto is an interesting thought, but at the end of all this, I think they come in 3rd place. 

Arte will just need to pay up and put a major plan in place to make this team competitive.

I'd be shocked if he goes to Toronto. Just seems like a strange fit for a guy who doesn't like too much attention. And with the Dodgers making little effort to hide their meeting or pursuit of him, it feels like the Angels still have a great chance unless he really has winning as his number one priority and feels the chances of that here are too low. 

6 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

They keep talking about the Dodgers and Blue Jays. 

You notice there hasn't been a single peep from the Angels? They've just been thrown in with the other teams as "being in". Not a hint of anything. This is the team that he spent his entire career with so far. Complete radio silence.

I'm sure the noise around the Dodgers and Blue Jays is legitimate. That's what the media is getting.

But the Angels are still absolutely in it. I don't think money will be an issue. It's ultimately going to come down to whether he values comfort over winning, and he very well might. 

Ohtani said he wanted things kept quiet. Aside from Cocaine Ron's "don't want to let the cat out of the bag" line (which appears to have meant nothing), there's been nothing. In fact, Heyman said last night he thought the Angels were on the periphery and it's the Dodgers or Blue Jays. 

Meanwhile, the Jays had a well publicized meeting with him. And Dave Roberts comes into the Winter Meetings all "You're damn right we met with Ohtani and I don't give a crap if he wanted it quiet!"

Just saying - it feels like one team following the rules and the others are blowing it off, particularly the Dodgers. 

There's no bat anywhere close to Ohtani on the market. Closest you could get to replacing Ohtani would be something like signing Yamamoto or Snell and maybe Candelario.