Junkballer

Bob was there when we were talking to Wash. I was thinking “oh this is cool because I just wrote about this last week. And now it’s a nice lead note on a day that nothing is going on.”
I didn’t think it was anything important enough to tweet before actually writing my story. 
 
Then about 30 minutes later, I see that Bob’s tweet has people losing their minds with speculation. So I had to tweet to tell people what really happened. 

Karnac: "Under what name does Trevor Bauer sign in at hotels?"

@Blarg's yard sign...
 

Eh, at a quick glance it doesn’t look very different.
Too early to judge last 3-4 years, but if we look at 2000-2020 or so..
8th pick: 
Great (1): Lindor (44 WAR) Good (4): Freeland (17 WAR), Leake (16), Maholm (12), Jung (3 WAR, probably gonna be good) Okay (4): Quantrill (8), Stubbs (8), Beckham (6), DeShields (5) Bad (6): Haseley, Carson Fulmer, Hunter Dozier, Appel, Moore, VanBenSchoten (all had just a WAR around replacement or negative) Didn’t reach MLB (5) 45th pick:
Great (1): Story (30 WAR) Good (1): Lowrie (16 WAR) Okay (2): Gorzelanny (5), Jackson (3) Bad (6): Hjelle, Howard, Bowen, Belfiore, Price, Brignac Didn’t reach (10)  Ky Bush was the 45th pick.
76th pick:
Great (1): Giancarlo Stanton (44 WAR) Good (1): Brian Anderson (10) Okay (3): James McCann (8), Nick Hundley (8), Chad Bettis (3) Bad (6): Campbell, Clarke, Beck, Murphy, Hamilton, Majewski Didn’t reach (9) 83rd pick:
Great (1?): Sean Murphy at 12, probably on pace for 20-30+ Good (1): Adam Lind (12) Okay (1): Micah Owings (3) Bad (6): Lipcius, Seabold, Williams, Murphy, Olmos, Bates Didn’t reach (11) A couple things are pretty consistent…
5% chance you get a really good, if not great player with each of those picks. This was true across all four of those slots (Murphy is a bit of a stretch, but if we drafted another Sean Murphy I don’t think anyone would complain).
Roughly 15% chance you get someone who has a decent but unremarkable career.
30% chance the pick is at best replacement level, this was true across all four slots.
50% chance that guy never plays in the bigs for the latter three (only about 33% for the #8 overall pick).
Aside from the #8 pick making the majors more frequently and producing a few more decent majors, there was really no difference in what you get picking #45, #76, or #83. It is worth noting though that both Stanton and Story were picks out of HS.
The Rockies picked Tyler Anderson ahead of Story at #20, and signed for probably about slot ($1.5m) while Story signed for $900k. Stanton was taken after the Marlins took Matt Dominguez with their first pick, both look like they signed in line with those around them.
Murphy was picked by the Athletics after they selected AJ Puk and Logan Shore, both of whom look they they were at or a bit above-slot.
I don’t think it really matters much across those four picks. Odds are about the same.

What if that 60 FV guy means your next guy is a 50, and the two following are limited to 40-45s? Is it still worth it?
By taking a 55 guy they can ensure they get three more 50 guys with their next three picks because they know they’ll have the money to work around signability concerns that cause guys to drop. I agree that we need quality - but man, we really, really need quantity too. And picking the 25th ranked guy over the 8th ranked guy is probably negligible. Mike Trout was a 20-somethingth guy.
If we didn’t have four top 100 picks, I would agree much more with you, but given how vastly thin our farm is, how one 60 prospect won’t save us (especially since we’re on track for another top pick next year), how we’re still going to spend like a big market team at some point vs. a spending approach like Pittsburgh or Chicago, I’m all for a strategy where they maximize these first four picks and get the absolute best they can. A slot or above-slot guy makes the next three picks much shakier.
Not to mention it helps save dough for 11th round, where we’ve done real well recently. Silseth and Dana have arguably been at least comparably good picks in the 11th round as to who was taken at #8 in the first round (Benny Montgomery, Brooks Lee).
A deep and balanced draft, a good sell this year and maybe next, and a strong finish from our kids this year could lead to an offseason where we can make smart moves and be in place to draft well again next year and be in good shape 2026, with a young core, a farm hopefully crawling out of the bottom half. This ship can still turn around by late 2025/2026.

Hernandez declares firmly that he will spend his retirement years in his home in the city of Loxahatchee, Florida, although actual maps show he will be just outside the city.

Slew

Just got back from a 3 day camping trip at the East Fork, San Gabriel River.  Haven't camped up there in a while.  River was still screaming a bit.  Crossable, but if you are a little hesitant, better to stay home.  On the way out, the accessible river areas were packed.  Trails not so much.  Also, there is a supposed bear that wanders the parking lot.  3 legged, one eyed.  My buddies had a video and some pictures, so when he sends them to me I'll post them.  
Rainbow Falls.  

My buddies the Bighorn Sheep.  Haven't seen them in a few years.  They greeted me with a nice river crossing.  

Frog visited me on my tent.

Some of the pretty flowers that are blooming.

This New Year’s  morning I took a walk and saw a little boy at the bus stop eating a giant chocolate Candy Bar. 
I said, "Hey kid, eating that much chocolate at one time is bad for you." 
He looked me in the eye and said, "Well, my grandpa lived to 103."
"Oh, really? Did he eat a lot of chocolate?" I responded.
"No, he minded his own damn friggin business."

A blonde teenager, wanting to earn some extra money for the summer, decided to hire herself out as a "handy-woman"
She started canvassing a nearby well-to-do neighborhood. She went to the front door of the first house, and asked the owner if he had any odd jobs for her to do.
"Well, I guess I could use somebody to paint my porch," he said, "How much will you charge me?"
Delighted, the girl quickly responded, "How about $50?"
The man agreed and told her that the paint brushes and everything she would need was in the garage.
The man's wife, hearing the conversation said to her husband, "Does she realize that our porch goes ALL the way around the house?"
He responded, "That's a bit cynical, isn't it?"
The wife replied, "You're right. I guess I'm starting to believe all those dumb blonde jokes we've been getting by email lately."
Later that day, the blonde teenager came to the door to collect her money.
"You're finished already?" the startled husband asked.
"Yes, she replied, and I even had paint left over, so I gave it two coats."
Impressed, the man reached into his pocket for the $50.00 and handed it to her along with a $10.00 tip.
“And, by the way," the teenager added, "it's not a Porch, it's a Lexus."

I forgot how much I watched when the team was good.

Frog House surf shop on PCH has some fun with their billboard. When the Ippei news broke it said something to the effect of “Pete Rose was an interpreter away from the HOF.”

So, Fletch knew but Shohei didn’t 
Oh, okay!

Not a chance in hell Ohtani wasn’t in on the action.  Cmon man.