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Junkballer

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    Brandon Marsh on playing for Phillies vs Angels

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    22 hours ago, T.G. said:

    We all know the organization is broken.  Most of us want Arte to sell. 

    Personally, I don't need a bunch of reminders about how much the team sucks.  I see it.  We all see it.  I just don't obsess about it.  I don't even whine (much) about it. 

    It's all out of our control and despite what people like mmc want, I am still going to watch because I like baseball. I'm just not consumed by it.  It's an option of things to do each day.  That's all.  It's a pastime. 

    There are just bigger things to worry about or get angry about. 

    I'm not happy that the team sucks, but again since it's out of my control - I don't think about it too much. And the last thing I want to do is sit around and complain about it with a bunch of other people. 

    I get it.  Some people are outraged. They have a right to be.  That's just not me.  It's all about perspective.

    Vernon Wells is out there thinking, "yeah but when I say too blessed to be stressed, AW has a meltdown!"

    Thought experiment: $100k charity donation for giving up leadoff walks

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    2 hours ago, UBstrange said:

    The reason the Angels lost, you might think, was because Mike Trout struck out to end the game.  On the surface, this appears to be true.  Looking deeper, the problem was Jose Suarez's lack of incentive. He walked the leadoff batter in the 6th inning and they scored on a HR.  Even with Trout striking out and Suarez giving up the HR, had he not walked the leadoff batter before the HR, we would have gone to the bottom of the 9th in a 4-4 game instead of the game ending, 5-4.

    Imagine if you could fine any Angels pitcher $100,000 every time he walked a leadoff batter.  If you're about to lose a bunch of money, that's a very strong motivator.  You might think that they already have an incentive, which is to stay on the team and not get cut.  True, that is some basic everyday incentive, but it's not enough to prevent leadoff walks.  You have to attack their wallet.  Enter the player's association.  And now you see another problem with why we can't fix certain issues:  The player's association prohibiting it.

    Ron Washington should tell every pitcher on the staff that for every leadoff walk that they give up (only the walks to start an inning), they should donate $100,000 to an Angels charity as a personal punishment, not as a fine.  The economist in me says that would work almost instantly because the incentive is too strong not to do it.  You'd see more leadoff HRs and other hits, but you'd rarely see a leadoff walk.

    Question:  Would you rather see more leadoff HRs and hits if it meant there was almost never a leadoff walk?

    The underlying point that leadoff walks are especially damaging is correct, and you did phrase it as a thought experiment.  It's not anywhere near a plausible scenario though, being that the players union would nip that in the bud immediately.  Perhaps if you proposed an incentive rather that a penalty it might gain more engagement in the "thought experiment".

    Gameday Thread (4/10/24 1pm): Rays @ Angels: Soriano on the mound, Rengifo, Adell in, no Rendon, Schanuel

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Chuck said:

    Been out today with a colonoscopy today but I’m happy to report that everything came back good. I’m clean and don’t have to do another one for another 10 years. 
    IMG_4411.jpeg

    So far I can’t tell the difference between the whole colonoscopy experience today and the Angels play this afternoon. 

    The similarities are quite telling. 

    Shitty pitching & defense & the offense has been ass.

    There's a clean peanut joke in this post somewhere, but, like the Angels, I just can't put it all together.

    A true #1 pitcher

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

    I'm checking out that article right now, and the first thing that stands out is that Gerrit Cole is the only pitcher that was voted a unanimous ace - that is, by all 20 participants. So if there is only one "true ace" in MLB right now, going by their definition, then that means 29 other teams haven't drafted and developed a guy who is currently a true ace. Of course there are a bunch of guys that would have been unanimous at some point over the last ten years--Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, DeGrom, Sale, and others come to mind--but in 2024, Gerrit is the only guy to make the grade. Which is weird.

    Back up for a moment. If you're over 35ish, you remember a time when top pitchers regularly pitched 250 innings. Justin Verlander is the only active pitcher to pitch 250 IP, which he did last back in 2011 with 251 IP. Roy Halladay did it a year before. Meaning, from 2010-23 there have been two pitcher seasons with 250 IP. In the decade before, 2000-09, there were 7; in 1990-99, 33; in 1980-89, 109; in the 70s, 255.

    Or to put that another way, over the last three seasons, there have been, on average, 5.67 seasons of 200+ IP; from 2010-19, it was 27.1 - that's more than four times as many. Going back further, and it is even more extreme, especially accounting for fewer teams.

    It is nothing new to point out that innings have declined over baseball history - and it isn't just the last few decades. There are some crazy numbers in the 19th century, with Will White holding the record with 680 IP (!) pitched in 1879. The most IP in the 20th century was Ed Walsh with 464 IP in 1908, which was also the last 400+ IP season. The last 350 IP season was Bob Feller with 371.1 in 1946, and the last 300 IP was Steve Carlton with 304 IP in 1980.

    It should also be noted that velocity has risen throughout history. We don't have good numbers before the last 10-20ish years, at least consistently and accurately across the board, but I think I read that average fastball velocity has increased by something like 3-5 MPH over the last couple decades. I'm guessing that there were outliers through history, but it is quite possible that no one threw a 90 MPH fastball until the 20th century. In mid-century, I'm guessing that Bob Feller and a few others could hit 95, but the average was probably somewhere in the low 80s.

    Anyhow, this is all a long way around to saying that we're still influenced by the past; as recently as the 2000s, just about every team had at least one guy who threw 200 IP in a season. Now it is one out of five teams. The nature of starting pitching has changed. 200 IP today is close to what 250 IP was in the 90s, and 300 IP was in the 70s. That means that about 160 IP today - qualifying, basically - is the equivalent of the historical notion of 200 IP, at least in the preceding few decades. In other words, the expected IP of a regular starter is in the 160-180 IP; 180-200 is very good, and 200+ is exceptional.

    So if we want to adjust to today's context, we have to also adjust downward not only with innings pitched, but also WAR, because WAR is largely dependent upon IP. Historically, though, this has been somewhat counter-balanced by higher WAR/IP, with more Ks and fewer walks, at least among elite pitchers. In a way, the best starting pitchers today are sort of like closers who pitch 180+ innings.

    Now Cole has been a full time player since 2015 (he pitched 255 IP in 2013-14 total), which is eight full seasons (not counting 2020). Of those eight seasons, he's pitched 200+ IP six times. Here are the number of 200+ IP seasons from 2015-23:

    2015-23 (103 player seasons of 200+ IP)

    6 Cole

    4 Greinke, Scherzer, Verlander

    3 Archer, Bumgarner, deGrom, Mikolas, Nola, Sale, Samaradzija

    2 Alcantara, Bieber, Corbin, Cueto, Hamels, Keuchel, Kluber, Lester, Porcello, Price, Quintana, Shields, Stroman

    1 Bunch of guys

    Meaning, over the last eight full seasons, only 24 players have had multiple seasons with 200 IP, and only 11 with three or more seasons, and only 4 pitchers threw 200+ IP in half of those seasons or more. Over his career spanning back before 2015, Kershaw only did it 5 times, all in 2015 or before; Scherzer 6 times; and Verlander 12 times. Weaver, if you're wondering, did it 4 times. Before him, Lackey did it 6 times (4 for the Angels). Going back, Chuck Finley did it 9 times.

    Compare that to the "golden era" of aces: Maddux 18, Clemens 15, Johnson 14, Pedro 7. Maddux pitched 14 years in a row of 200+ IP, and 18 out of 19. Even the more fragile Pedro Martinez pitched more 200 IP seasons than any active player other than Verlander.

    Is this all due to velocity? No fucking clue, though I think it is the leading factor among, perhaps, several others. But some of those guys threw as hard as today's staff aces, but still managed to regularly throw 200 IP, sometimes 250. I would speculate--and it is speculation only--that other factors include over-training, poor nutrition (not in terms of what players eat, but the nutritional and mineral quality of food), and perhaps something akin to "baby-ing"...meaning, a perhaps erroneous view that coddling pitchers will reduce injuries, when it may actually be more the opposite.

    Baseball is ever-changing. While the trend from more to less innings is pretty consistent going back 145 years, it may be that we're at a nadir and will bounce back a bit, to at least 2000s levels. But who knows. It may also be that starting pitchers eventually become 3-4 IP "super-openers" and the line between starters and relievers gets blurred.

    Anyhow, lots of words, but it is an interesting subject.

    AJ, a couple of years ago you had a fantastic post that compared the Nationals and other WS teams with heavy top ends with other rotations deep with 2s & 3s.  As I recall, the jist was that because relying on having #1-types is difficult to draft/project/develop/acquire (also risky due to the likelihood of injury), that the trend of WS winners was towards deeper rotations with mid-tier arms.  Anyway, I doubt that I summarized that post well but, it was a fantastic analysis and very relevant to the current conversation.

    Ippei fired by Dodgers after being accused of theft by Ohtani’s attorney’s

    in LA Angels | MLB Daily

    Posted

    19 hours ago, SoCalDucksFan said:

    Whether or not Ohtani did anything questionable, there is 1 Certainty in my opinion.

    NOTHING will ever happen to him.  There will be NO Consequences whatsoever.  If there was something going on, the public will NEVER know the truth.

    Bottom line, there is Zero chance that this ends with so much as a suspension for Ohtani, let alone a Pete Rose type expulsion from the game.  The league is not going to punish their new $700 Million man, even if he was placing bets against his own club.

    At the very least, the public won't hear another word from that interpreter  At worst, his days on this earth are numbered.

    That's assuming a lot, namely that the Feds will look the other way at what appears to be Ohtani changing his story once finding out the seriousness of admitting to making the wire transfers.  Before saying that Ippei stole the money there were reports saying that Shohei admitted to paying the debts to an illegal bookie with wire transfers.  Federal crime right there, if indeed true.  Should the Feds pursue that, MLB will not just allow him to keep playing while a federal charge is hanging over his head.  

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