Fake Chow

Arte prefers to create his own hurdles where there was previously a smooth path. 

If you are the owner of a baseball team, at some point you have to listen to your baseball people and heed their advice if you want to be successful.

Just when you believed that Ohtani leaving might be the catalyst for a fundamental change in team operations.

I think he already "did" with that interview he gave earlier this year.
Like I said in another post, I thought that meant Ohtani and him had worked something out, like "I'll match whatever you're offered in FA." Or something.
And who knows, maybe there was something to that. And maybe something over the course of the year changed. 
It absolutely seems like Ohtani was headed to the Dodgers all along. And like @Inside Pitch mentioned a few days ago, he would have been there 6 years ago if they had the DH already. 
But I can't believe Moreno would have stayed unless he had some sort of indication Ohtani would stay too. 
Moreno played this out so poorly...

I am inclined to believe there wasn't any amount of money the Angels could have offered him to make him want to stay.  It's sad, but that's what I'm thinking.

If anything the league needs to explain why they essentially let the Dodgers swap out their terrible Bauer deal for Shohei Ohtani.

Ohtani is less of a business risk than he is a baseball risk, so in that sense I can agree that he's an example of "spending a ton to make even more."
But in terms of baseball itself--which is all I care about as a fan--it is a terrible risk, which is why I appreciate the fact that the Angels presumably didn't really compete. Regardless of how the money is spread out and over how long a time, paying any player $70M a year is just insane. Paying a guy who has a legit chance of being a DH for the rest of his career that kind of money, is just bonkers.
Chances are he'll continue to be a superstar for some years to come, but that we've seen the best of him. There's a chance that he could have a year or two even better than 2021-23 if he, say, combines 2022 pitching with 2023 hitting. But there's also a possibility that 2023's hitting is the outlier and he'll never be the pitcher he was. I do think he'll age well and not drop off a cliff--he wants to be good too badly for that to happen. But I just don't think you can expect 9+ WAR seasons from him on a regular basis, and the Dodgers are essentially paying him to continue at 2021-23 level for at least half of that contract. The chances of that happening aren't high enough to make the contract worth the risk, imo.
Or as Jeff said in the podcast, a few months ago before the injury, we were talking about $500M as dubious. Then he got hurt and everyone assumed his price would plummet. But somehow his agents managed public opinion and his injury was seemingly forgotten, or at least minimized. And then somehow the price not only returned to half a billion, but soared past that.
The point being, if we were balking at $500M back in June, and then thinking much less in September, why is anyone bummed the Angels didn't pay him $700M or more? I get being bummed about losing Ohtani - I feel it too - but I don't get thinking that the Angels somehow fucked us over because they wouldn't pay him like he was going to continue at his 2021-23 pace for the next half decade or more.

I 100% hope Ohtani continues his amazing career and I hope it leads to many personal accolades.  I hope at the same time, it is similar to his time here, where those accolades don’t lead to team success.  That being said, there is no way he can possibly live up to $700 million.

And it's like when Goose died in Top Gun right now.
But I also picture Ohtani here telling Arte to take him to the playoffs or lose him forever.

Harper does not want to “renegotiate” his contract.  His agent said he would be open to an extension to the contract.
While you are welcome to have an opinion about that idea, that’s not even close to being the same thing.

So we’d be back to where we were, being like a 73 win team, with money tied up on a risky arm in Snell. 
The Angels cannot spend their way back into contention, not in one winter. 
Love Shohei, wanted him back, didn’t even really care if it was so expensive it effed the teams finances up, but it’s a blessing in disguise. Baseball is changing, even more so after the Ohtani deal, where the star players are going to be paid even more exorbitantly. The Arte method of spending big on a couple players has not worked and won’t work anytime soon. And before anyone replies with “but the Rangers!” bear in mind they also had a ton of good young talent to support and did a good job on mid-level signings. That’s probably the closest hybrid of approaches the Arte-owned Angels can take if they want to compete, but they can’t turn that ship around in one winter, nor did the Rangers. 
Punt 2024. Do what will be best this year to develop the young core. Give them mentors, give them complimentary pieces to keep pressure from mounting, acquire guys who can be traded for farm depth or guys who can contribute through say, 2025-2026 at most, and bide our time for a season or two.

I dont like the idea of signing a fulltime DH with Trout getting older and Rendon on the roster.  I feel like we need that spot to rotate them through to hopefully keep them healthy and in the lineup for a full season.

Nah, worst case scenario is we sign him for $700M and he blows out a shoulder or something in spring training and never plays another game.
 

They need to take a step back and be realistic about where they stand as a franchise right now. Continuing the same approach they've had is what has led them down the same road of being a mid 70 win team year after year. They aren't ready to be serious contenders, so handing out more long-term contracts on guys 30+ years old just makes little sense right now. Stick with some lower level short-term deals at best, and use this season as an evaluation process and hopeful development process for all the young guys currently on the roster. See what the new coaching staff can get out of guys like Detmers, Canning, Silseth, Soriano, Joyce, Neto, O'Hoppe, Adell, Moniak, Schanuel
 

No, I'm not talking about Shohei wearing a Dodgers uniform. I've never lived in Orange County, so I don't own that particular brand of Angels fan jealous butthurt. I'm talking about where the Angels are now: They just lost the best player in baseball with nothing to show for it; and in fact, lost some of their best prospects in a vain attempt to make the playoffs and earn his love. They're like a dude who empties his bank account to buy an extravagant gift for his girlfriend, loses the girlfriend but she takes the gift with her (and starts dating his better looking, smarter, more successful nemesis).
Back in June or July, when talk about a hypothetical Shohei trade heated up, I speculated that there were three or four possible scenarios. I don't know how I phrased it as it was spread across weeks and in various discussions, but if I remember correctly (and with the benefit of hindsight), it was something like this:
Best: The stars align and Shohei and the Angels (with Trout and Rendon returning from injury) fight their way into the playoffs. Shohei signs long-term, and the Angels return to perennial contention with a youth movement building around Ohtani, Trout, and Rendon.
Not so bad A: Shohei is traded, the Angels farm is replenished, and the youth movement commences, led by old man Trout (and hopefully a healthier Rendon).
Not so bad B: The Angels don't trade Shohei but miss the playoffs, but Shohei stays and Perry builds around him.
Worst: The Angels don't trade Shohei, go all-in on the playoffs but miss out. Shohei leaves. 
So yeah, this is the worst-case scenario. The Angels shot for "best" and got "worst," and somehow managed to make worse even worser by trading away their best prospect and a handful of other prospects for what amounted to absolutely zilch: no playoffs, no Shohei, and an empty farm. Oh, and to add insult to injury, they couldn't even catch a bit of luck in the draft lottery.
In hindsight, it really looks like they should have gone for "Not so bad A". That's what I and others advocated for in July, even though I did understand Perry's reasoning behind going for it. But what happened happened, and it failed spectacularly.
To illustrate how bad "worst" is, consider that if they had gone for "Not so bad A," right now they would they still have Quero, Crow, Albright etc, but also a handful of other good prospects - even one or two top 50 guys. Now, well, there's no Shohei and the farm is as barren as it was back in the Dipoto era. 
I honestly have no idea what the Angels plan on doing. Presumably Arte wants to contend. They have about $70M to spend (ironic) and have picked up a couple no-name relievers. Maybe they go after Yamamoto and/or Snell. I fear a Bellinger "splash" which has high belly-flop potential (wouldn't that be almost deliciously ironic: Shohei in Dodgers blue and the Angels compensation is...Cody Bellinger). Or Arte could play it frugal - that wouldn't surprise me, either, at this point.
But it is hard to imagine a positive near or even mid-term future. I suppose the optimist in me says that the youth movement could be better than expected. Trout could finally be healthy and Rendon comes to spring with a chip on his shoulder (which Ron Washington seems to be trying to manufacture). Taylor Ward could have found God and be ready to mash. Silseth, Sandoval, Detmers, etc...it could all click. Who nows, maybe losing Shohei is what the team needs to actualize its potential. It could happen, folks! Meaning, this isn't the Rockies. It. could be the Orioles or Rangers...right? Right?!?!

I think you are right in that it'll be dragged out.  With Snell, he'll probably wait until after Yamamoto is off the board, since Yamamoto has a distinct timeline, and he'll pit the losers of that battle against each other as the SP market dries up.

Because in my trade scenario you also get Burnes and because of the size of Yellich’s contract it brings down the actual cost to get Burnes. This also allows you to trade one of the three outfielders to get another pitcher. 

Or to put it another way, signing a DH-only guy like Martinez or Pederson will be a good sign that Perry Minasian doesn't know what he's doing.

One of the tiny silver linings of losing Ohtani: An open DH spot for the injury-prone players like Trout, Rendon, and Ward. Plus, they can rotate Drury, Thiass, and Schanuel, as well.
Focus on pitching and lineup depth, not an expensive DH-only.

Trade for Yellich and Burnes.  There is your left handed hitter.  

Somewhere in a parallel universe the Angels never hire Jerry Dipoto and end up with Andrew Friedman as Director of player of operations after Tony Reagins got fired. He gets along great with Scioscia, and the Angels turn into a west coast powerhouse. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are in the middle of a successful run of 10-15 straight years of playoff appearances, Scioscia is masterful and we never have to be subjected to these nightmarish last 15 years. 
 
I keep wondering where rock bottom is, and while I know signing Shohei didn’t make sense for the Angels, it still sucks A LOT knowing he’s with the stupid ass dodgers. When  does this team start its upward projectory? I’m so tired of being dog shit and the laughing stock of baseball in every aspect. 

To question Trout's desire to win is absurd.  
Trout believed, like many of us, that the Angels would support the team to the extent it needed in order to field a winner.  He got a taste of how it wasn't working really but Shohei got a full meal of it prior to having to make a decision.  There's no question that if Trout were in a similar spot as Shohei that he's be gone right now.  
Last year really was an unbelievable disaster.  Take payroll as high as it's ever been, sell off the vast majority of your farm system that's worth anything.  And end up with 73 wins.  It's really quite impressive.  How on earth could anyone who is about to commit the next ten years of their career believe that this franchise has any clue on how to win based on what they've done the previous 6, 8, 10 years.  That's a full decade of wash, rinse, repeat.  
If Trout is guilty of anything it's being duped.  

It is when you put yourself in a position to let guys like Phil Gosselin, Jack Mayfield, Kurt Suzuki, Jose Rojas, Jon Jay, Kean Wong, Adam Eaton, Jose Iglesias and Juan Lagares  to combine for the number of PA they did in 2021. 
You can't have it both ways.  You can't ignore everything but the major league club with the expectation of being competitive and leave gaping holes at multiple spots.   

And from August first of 2023, the Angels had zero shot of keeping him.  Their only chance to prove to Shohei that they could do what was necessary to win was 2023.  Just prior to the deadline they were within shouting distance of the wild card.  Injuries had piled up and Perry was essentially forced to make a bunch of trades to maintain what he was able to piece together from earlier in the season.  The problem was that his deadline was an absolute miserable failure that ultimately left the team with 73 wins and zero chance to re-sign him.  If you pull out all of the stops and end up with 73 wins while going 17-38 over the final 55 games of a must win season, you have zero chance to keep a guy who's main priority is winning.  
The long term success of any baseball franchise is the farm system.  You might be able to occasionally piece together a halfway decent team via the free agent market and some trades, but ultimately, to create sustainable winning, you need to have a capable farm system.  This is not a mystery to any of us.   
And it's not just about having a young, club controlled, major league team.  You always need to worry about the next guy.  Injury and poor performance happen as we've seen.  Over and Over and Over.  
Having Ohtani and Trout.  Two generational players and not being able to piece together a winner just tells you how important this really is.  And the real kick in the teeth is that the farm was kinda moving in the right direction yet to convince Ohtani to stay, you have to essentially put a major dent in what little progress the system had made.   And because they're stubborn and short-sighted as a franchise as they've been for the last 20 years, they were never going to trade their golden goose for what is actually even more important that a Unicorn.  
So here we stand once again.  With the worst farm in baseball.  Yes, there is some young talent on this roster but in order to win it will take everyone reaching their potential and very few, if any, injuries.  
I actually don't care that they didn't keep Shohei for that kind of money.  I'm most annoyed because of the double bitch slap at the end.  Not trading him AND selling off a bunch of prospects to try and keep him.  Recently I have wanted to believe that this franchise was doing things to move in the right direction.  Nope, they just doubled down and put themselves in a lose lose.  
I really don't think I'm gonna feel a lot of positivity toward this team until Arte no longer owns it.  

We've already got half of Rendon