Angels_Fan

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

So it has to be a drastic overpay?  You don’t think the Tigers could see value in getting a young pitcher and a young controllable position player?  They’ll only trade him if a team blows them out of the water?  Seems like a reach. 

If Boyd starts getting the results to match the potential they may think he has, he’ll be worth far more than just Jones and Suarez.

Is it possible that Avila could view Jones and Suarez in higher regard than most others do and be willing to give Boyd for them? Yea, I guess. But one can’t assume that. 

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Why?  

Because they can’t get fair value for him if they think Boyd is truly better than he has shown. Unless, of course, a team overpays based on perceived potential alone.

Just now, totdprods said:

Unless they feel now is the best time, and they like Jones + Suarez. Or another package the Angels offer.

Remember, Eppler and Avila have come together on numerous impact trades already. Good reason to think that history can help both clubs here.

Eh, that seems more like wishful thinking than anything else. He’s cheap, under club control for 3 years, and may have more potential than he has shown. There’s just no incentive to move him unless a team overpays drastically. 

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

And that’s when you get into data we as fans simply don’t have access to or knowledge to interpret.

Trades aren’t fans picking names that match up based on WAR or prospect rankings.

Detroit moving him now could signal that they internally think his first-half was a fluke and that it will be the best he ever shows - and that it’s time to move him now before it gets worse. It could also signal the Angels see a perfect opportunity for Callaway to turn a #4 starter into a #2-3 by changing up what he throws when, or one slight mechanical tweak or change in approach.

Or it could mirror the seemingly light return Cleveland got for Kluber. They were totally enamored with Emmanuel Clase and his 102 cutter, despite not having no real prospect pedigree. What’s to say they don’t look at Luis Rengifo and think that’s Erick Aybar 2.0, an annual 3 WAR infielder we can plug in for league-minimum right now, we need this for the next 5 years and go with that?

They have no reason to trade Boyd unless a team overpays. Jones + Suarez won’t cut it. 

6 minutes ago, floplag said:

so would have the guys on FA, thats not a reason to give up too much to make the deal when those options are still there

Gray is only projected to earn $5.6 million next season and is under club control for two years. Acquiring Gray could give the Angels a lot of flexibility to keep improving the roster.

Marsh is pretty redundant with Trout, Adell and Upton locked up in the OF for many years. And it isn’t that hard to get an OF once Upton is gone.

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I don’t see any reason to blindly hope for anything. 

He looks like a guy who should give you 30+ GS, 170-180 IP, 180-200 K, a 4.25 ERA, 30 HR allowed. Basically another Skaggs or Heaney - at worst. If something clicked for him - again, a consistent 3 per 9 K rate indicates something did - than I think there’s a chance he can go a step further, maybe a 3.50-4.00 ERA.

The real concern with him, for me, isn’t the HR, it’d be his hits/walks. His 2019 BB rate continued a trend in the right direction, another good sign as it used to be pretty high. And for someone with a K rate closer to 12, allowing a hit an inning is a little high. Especially with a BB% north of 2. That means a lot of baserunners meaning the HR will hurt more. Allowing 30 HR a year isn’t a big deal if you limit baserunners - see Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander.

If he costs you Marsh? Hell no. No reason to make that trade. If he costs you someone like Jones - who is really redundant now with Rendon on board and Adell and Marsh set for future OF - and maybe someone as well-regarded as Suarez, and a lotto ticket, it’s a good trade to consider in the context of other moves.

Well, you said it. The Angels shouldn’t overpay (Marsh +) and should look to trade Jones and Suarez (which means the Tigers would be selling low, if Boyd’s potential is better than he has shown).

The chances of a deal being reached is probably close to zero. The Tigers would be wise to hold on to him and hope that he reaches his potential. They would likely get way more in return then.

Just now, Kevinb said:

That’s not saying much 

Maybe not, but that doesn’t take away the fact that he put up good numbers.

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

Which means he would cost even more.  Although im not sure i agree on the results his numbers have not been great recently either home or away.  I get it different approaches thus and so but were still assuming he will do better elsewhere. 

He’s a good pitcher. He also would’ve by far been the Angels best starter last season.

5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

You guys are fixating way too much on the wrong numbers, IMO. 

HRs can be flukey. A K9 increase of 3, to above 11 at the age of 28, a K rate he maintained all season, is pretty hard to be a fluke. It’s pretty apparent something clicked for him and at his age, there’s a chance he might trend upwards more than trend downwards.

His K/9 was 1.9. Gerrit Cole? 1.2. Cy Young Verlander’s was 1.5.

Obviously, those two pitchers are a whole different wavelength than Boyd, but the point I’m making about the data is that it’s not nearly as heinous as it seems and that there’s a very real chance that 2-3 of those HR are a result of him being left in too long by a Detroit team with no pen, or being allowed because he was pitching for a 100+ loss team in September and wasn’t being quite as careful. Knock 4-5 HR allowed in those circumstances and there’s nothing dramatically alarming about his HR rate. Probably wouldn’t even be much of a discussion point. 

So one should just blindly hope that he’ll stop giving up lots of HRs and put it all together? Archer is another guy who has a lot of potential but seemed to underperform these last few years for various reasons. 

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Im with you, i dont see it.
Flashes of greatness and the hope that our pitching coach can fix him would be nice if it didnt cost us 2 of our top 10 guys which many are talking like it will with Marsh+... thats an awful lot to pay on a wing and a prayer. 
Many here are high on him and others like him, Gray for example, and while i get the concept im not sure i am on board with what it will cost to get them over getting guys that are or have been in FA for about the same money. 
At this point that may be moot at the rate everyone not named us are signing people from that list but yeah.

Can’t really compare Gray with Boyd. Gray actually has the results (while pitching in a brutal environment like Coors half the time).

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Boyd started off 2019 just fine, 2.80 ERA and only 7 HRs allowed in 72 innings, pre June 1.

The BIG problem is June 1 through the end of the season, 5.60 ERA and 32 HRs allowed in only 113 innings.

As the greatest sheriff ever (Buford T. Justice) would say: There's no way.....noooo way, that the Halos should include Adell, Marsh, OR Adams in ANY deal for Boyd.  

Either the Tigers would be selling low (based on assumed potential) or the Angels would be overpaying. Boyd hasn’t done anything to warrant giving up the Angels best prospects. 

9 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

My bad, just read the post from Fletcher saying they could still spend around $30M.

Would be great to see. Hypothetically speaking they could afford Keuchel at $20M, Contreras at $4.5M and Jon Gray at $5.6M. Total of $30.1M. Though the farm would be depleted if we traded for both Contreras and Gray in separate trades.

Including someone like Marsh for Gray would be worth it, though (imo).

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Teheran is the type of pitcher who could fall off an absolute cliff in the span of a year.  He's got true Harvey potential.  I would be very very disappointed if he ended up in our rotation for 2020.  

Jeff Fletcher said that he heard the Angels have no interest in Teheran, thankfully.

Just now, Pancake Bear said:

 

 

Some team will be desperate and crazy enough to give him 4/80. Hopefully that team isn’t the Angels.

Just sign Keuchel and make a trade for someone like Gray and be done with it, Eppler.

He may be the kind of player to get his contract then mail it in. He finally had his first healthy season in 5 years during a contract year.

Great news. It seems like Eppler is aiming higher than that.

Just now, Pancake Bear said:

Rosenthal said industry expectation for Ryu is 4yr, 80m.

If Ryu gets injured and/or misses significant time (high probability, based on the last 5 years), who replaces him? Because he’s pitched 127+ innings just once since 2015.

4/80 (at minimum) for a pitcher who has pitched more than 127 innings in a season just once since 2015? Hell no.

2 minutes ago, 2112 said:

Any ground ball pitchers out there?  I know they're aren't sexy but with an infield of Rendon/Simmons/Fletcher there would be a lot of outs recorded.

Keuchel and Jon Gray.

Teheran’s results look like smoke and mirrors. He had a 5-6+ ERA in 3 months last season. The month where he had a 0.98 ERA, he allowed 15 walks to 19 strikeouts in 27 innings with a high fly ball % He just seems like the kind of pitcher who will have it all catch up to him eventually. And this isn’t the same Teheran from 2013-2016 regardless.

3 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Depending on the deals, I think that's great. I think it gives the Angels depth in the rotation and allows them to go after a salary dump pitcher in a trade during the season.

The Angels need good pitchers and depth. Quality over quantity. 

No thanks. Teheran isn’t the answer. And Ryu can’t be relied on to stay healthy. 

Gray pitched 6.2 innings or more 9 times last season (Ray did it twice) and averaged almost exactly 6 innings per start if you remove that one game that he didn’t start and got just one out. I hope he’s Eppler’s #1 trade target. 
 

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Ray is overrated.  he's topped 170 innings twice in his 5 major league seasons.  

He's averaged 5.1 ip per start.  

The dback have also done a nice job of holding out for top return on some of their other players.  

I guess my question is, what do people thing he's gonna cost?  He's got one year of control.  Frankly, I wouldn't give up much for that.  

I would hope Eppler doesn’t even trade for him. He’s not the answer. 

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

They’re not gonna have much room to be choosy. Ray has some upside at least and strikeout stuff that Eppler likes. 

Also by acquiring three SPs this winter, Angels ideally get a deeper, more rested pen with a lot more pitchers capable of going multiple innings. 

5.2 IP is probably more than any Halo managed last year either. 

He’d no doubt be a huge upgrade over last year. Just kinda hope that they set their sights higher than that. And actually, it was less than 5.1 IP per start after checking. And he only pitched 7 innings or more once last season. Would prefer someone who can pitch deeper in games. Bullpen fatigue is real.