wopphil

This is the kind of thinking that over-estimates a team’s success and then causes one to scratch their head when the team goes 70-92 for yet another losing season. 
Sandoval was great last year. Prior to last year though, he had a career ERA+ of 103. Detmers was very good last year, especially for his age. But still managed only a 106 ERA+ and was bad enough to get demoted mid-season. And you think these two qualify as 2 or better starters? Who is the one being ignorant here? 

I like Sandoval a lot. But I want to see a bit more from him - both in terms of years of track record and ability to go deep into games - before anointing him more than a #3. 
Anderson is not better than a #3, despite his success last year. And I say that from the perspective of someone who likes the signing a whole lot. 
Ohtani is a legit #1. 
This rotation has the makings to be very good. Detmers made huge gains last year, and Suarez is under-rated. But the rotation is one injury and regression from one guy away from being forced to rely on Barria and Davidson as two-thirds of the rotation. 

But he has done that for one year, and didn’t even throw enough innings to qualify. 
Look, as I have said like a dozen times now, I think Sandoval is a great pitcher. And I like the other guys in the rotation too. I just think we are still a bit thin on rotation quality and could use one more high caliber arm. 

So then replace “1, 2, 3, 4, and 5” with “top of rotation,” “middle of rotation,” and “back of rotation.” In my opinion, Sandoval is a middle of the rotation guy, while Detmers, Anderson and Suarez are - at this point in time at least - all middle of the rotation to back of the rotation guys. 

This is a good point. You can’t just look at what the Angels have done to improve, you have to look at what other teams have done as well. Because ultimately, they have to beat those other teams. Angels need more talent to compete - a shortstop, and preferably an ace. Going to be hard to get one of those, let alone both. 

If you were lost in the woods and needed breakfast, he’d be nice to have around, though.

I think the make one “significant” move and two “moderate moves.” The sign I can’t move will be a decent relief pitcher or shortstop, and the moderate moves will be relievers. 

I like Sandoval a lot. But I want to see a bit more from him - both in terms of years of track record and ability to go deep into games - before anointing him more than a #3. 
Anderson is not better than a #3, despite his success last year. And I say that from the perspective of someone who likes the signing a whole lot. 
Ohtani is a legit #1. 
This rotation has the makings to be very good. Detmers made huge gains last year, and Suarez is under-rated. But the rotation is one injury and regression from one guy away from being forced to rely on Barria and Davidson as two-thirds of the rotation. 

I like Sandoval a lot. But I want to see a bit more from him - both in terms of years of track record and ability to go deep into games - before anointing him more than a #3. 
Anderson is not better than a #3, despite his success last year. And I say that from the perspective of someone who likes the signing a whole lot. 
Ohtani is a legit #1. 
This rotation has the makings to be very good. Detmers made huge gains last year, and Suarez is under-rated. But the rotation is one injury and regression from one guy away from being forced to rely on Barria and Davidson as two-thirds of the rotation. 

This is a good point. You can’t just look at what the Angels have done to improve, you have to look at what other teams have done as well. Because ultimately, they have to beat those other teams. Angels need more talent to compete - a shortstop, and preferably an ace. Going to be hard to get one of those, let alone both. 

He had his best hitting year on a walk season. Sound familiar? Even with that he is a career 95 OPS+ hitter so the chances he is below league average with the bat is too great to make a commitment to. This guy is fools gold. 

Neto could probably move to second base, or even the outfield. 

Neto could probably move to second base, or even the outfield. 

I know it won’t happen, but this lineup would be totally transformed, and look potentially elite, with one of the top three shortstops. Imagine a top five of Turner, Ohtani, Trout, Rendon and Renfroe. That’s a top five that would potentially be the best in baseball, with a bottom four that wouldn’t be too bad either (Ward, Urshela/Walsh, Rengifo and O’Hoppe). And with five competent starting pitchers, that would be the foundation for a very good team. 

I know it won’t happen, but this lineup would be totally transformed, and look potentially elite, with one of the top three shortstops. Imagine a top five of Turner, Ohtani, Trout, Rendon and Renfroe. That’s a top five that would potentially be the best in baseball, with a bottom four that wouldn’t be too bad either (Ward, Urshela/Walsh, Rengifo and O’Hoppe). And with five competent starting pitchers, that would be the foundation for a very good team. 

I know it won’t happen, but this lineup would be totally transformed, and look potentially elite, with one of the top three shortstops. Imagine a top five of Turner, Ohtani, Trout, Rendon and Renfroe. That’s a top five that would potentially be the best in baseball, with a bottom four that wouldn’t be too bad either (Ward, Urshela/Walsh, Rengifo and O’Hoppe). And with five competent starting pitchers, that would be the foundation for a very good team. 

I can kinda squint and see Swanson being a possibility since he won’t command the most money. Correa, despite being from the Astros, seems to have enough leadership presence, knowledge, and character that I could see Arte/new owner in the wings making a push if there is an avenue to really push payroll. I think Baltimore makes a big play for him for those reasons. Turner feels like a guy who’s gonna take the most money out East, and Bogearts will be wooed by the big money teams already deep into contention. 
If they’re gonna drop big money on a FA this winter though, I would think Verlander or deGrom would be targeted over a SS. Can never have enough pitching, Ohtani insurance if he’s traded or walks, no long-term commitment. 

I know it won’t happen, but this lineup would be totally transformed, and look potentially elite, with one of the top three shortstops. Imagine a top five of Turner, Ohtani, Trout, Rendon and Renfroe. That’s a top five that would potentially be the best in baseball, with a bottom four that wouldn’t be too bad either (Ward, Urshela/Walsh, Rengifo and O’Hoppe). And with five competent starting pitchers, that would be the foundation for a very good team. 

Buxton was probably a better defender at 15 than Adell is now.

Gallo would be a good potential rebound candidate, and probably at an affordable price. But if he bombs again (the most likely  scenario), he is basically just an expensive version of Adell. 

some of it has to come from health and improvement.  And some of it from straight up better luck where we were -8 wins in base runs.  Meaning, based on the number of runs we score per game vs. the number of runs we gave up, we should have been a .500 team.  We were the second worst in baseball in that regard.  Part of that 'bad luck' though came from poor roster construction.   Base runs takes sequencing out of the equation but this roster was built to sequence poorly on both sides of the ball.  With awesome clustered in one area (like the top of the lineup or starting pitching) and sheer utter horrible crap (bullpen and the other 5 spots in the lineup) clustered in the other.  
This is where depth come in.  Where the whole can actually be the sum of the part instead of less.  

And health could subtract 5-7 wins. See what I'm saying?

Adding it in my head came out to around 4. I'm glad you did the math. Ok, so Urshela alone makes us  a 77 win team.
I don't subscribe to the improvement theory of current players, because I believe on a yearly basis, some will get worse, some will improve on a team such as this. It's not a team full of 24 year olds.
Anderson.... Pitching is hard to gauge with WAR but I think 2-3 wins should be a fair estimate. If we say he's replacing Syndergaard and his subsequent replacements after the deadline around with 1.5 wins. So they improve by one win with Anderson. 
So a 78 win team. We're going to need to unearth 10 wins somewhere. 

You don’t give up Detmers.