Fangraphs depth charts and rankings by position (worst bullpen and LF in baseball)

[Docwaukee]

As always, take this with a grain of salt as they are just projections but it gives us a decent overall idea of where we're at relative to our peers and those specifically in the division.  Before you ask, I can't see what it looked like last year.  

One other thing to take not of is that Fangraphs apparently can't add.  When you click on the link and look in the various categories, you will notice that the totals don't add up to what they've got for the individual players.  

Overall as a team, the Angels are ranked 16th with an expected WAR of 39.2.  14th overall for batting/defense and 18th overall for pitching.  
Division
Astros 47.2
Mariners 44.4
Angels 39.2
Rangers 34.7
A's 29.9

C - 14th
1b - 27th
2b - 25th
SS - 28th
3b - 10th
LF - 30th
CF - 2nd
RF - 8th
DH - 3rd

SP - 7th
RP - 30th

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1

So if you think we should get a SS or a LFer or a 1bman or more bullpen the good news is that YOU'RE CORRECT!

[Second Base]

Seems about right. That's why I think Perry will get a Dexter Fowler type to play LF for one year and let Adell develop in AAA and Moniak to help the team without any burden in 2023. 

And as far as the bullpen. I think Perry is going to allocate a couple of our starting pitchers to it and see what happens, with Canning and Rodriguez. Soriano too. As long as there aren't any more Loup type of investments. 

[Pancake Bear]

2B and 1B should already be better. Really need at least replacement level production from LF and 2-3 wins each from SS and LF would be amazing. Probably wouldn't cost that much to get us there, either. 

[BTH]

I was looking at those before and after the Urshela trade, and I came to the conclusion that those depth charts don’t illustrate how Urshela truly improves the Angels.

The biggest impact Urshela has is preventing more AAA guys from getting MLB AB’s.

Those depth charts last year didn’t predict that Velazquez, Mayfield, Wade, Rojas, Gosselin, Harrison, Sierra, Lagares, Whitefield, MacKinnon, etc. would get 1500 PA’s.

Edited November 20, 2022 by Trendon

[Angels 1961]

Benintendi solves LF

[Angelsjunky]

I'm still pissed that both Adell AND Marsh (and while we're at it, Adams) suck. I was looking forward to the Marsh-Trout-Adell outfield for years.

As for Fangraphs, pretty sure Trout isn't going to hit .257. Just sayin.

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I was looking at those before and after the Urshela trade, and I came to the conclusion that those depth charts don’t illustrate how Urshela truly improves the Angels.

The biggest impact Urshela has is preventing more AAA guys from getting MLB AB’s.

Those depth charts last year didn’t predict that Velazquez, Mayfield, Wade, Rojas, Gosselin, Harrison, Sierra, Lagares, Whitefield, MacKinnon, etc. would get 1500 PA’s.

agreed.  these models are never going to account for extremes in either direction.  

and I lied about not knowing what it looked like last year.  I found it on the way back machine.  They had us projected for 43.6 WAR.  27.8 for position players and 15.8 for pitching.  We ended up with 11.9 and 17.0 respectively.  So effectively a 16 win differential offensively.  They were actually pretty close overall in predicting the Dogs, Yanks, Astros, Jays, Braves, Mets, Phils, Rays and Padres would be the best teams.  The mariners, guardians, orioles and cards overachieved some whereas the CWS and Red Sox underachieved some.  From what I can tell, the Angels were far and away the biggest underachievers.    

predicted vs. final

C  3.0 vs -0.7
1b 2.9 vs. -1.8
2b 1.6 vs. 0.5
ss 2.1 vs. 1.0
3b 4.3 vs. 1.2
RF 1.2 vs. 2.8
CF 6.8 vs. 5.7
LF 0.9 vs. 0.2
DH 4.1 vs. 2.9

SP 12.1 vs. 15.3
RP 3.8 vs. 1.7

So what does this tell us?  Why you trade Marsh for Ohoppe.  Why you add Anderson to replace the combo of Thor/Lorenzen.  And why you get Urshela to back up 1b and 3b.  

What's still needed?  A similar player in the MIF to backup or replace Fletcher.  One where you don't lose that much if both Walsh and Rendon fail again and Rengifo and Urshela become their replacements.  But even with really terrible replacements at SS, it wasn't really that bad.  

And what does it tell us about LF?  If you walk into the season again with expectations of getting 1 win from a corner OF spot then Minasian has failed at his job.  And frankly, Taylor Ward saved his ass to some degree or both corners would have been a massive fail.  

We need Stassi to pull his head out and/or O'hoppe to take the job.  We need Rendon to stay healthy.  We need Walsh to recover and perform reasonably.  We need Urshela to do what he does if they don't.  And we need Perry to get us a friggin LFer.  

And finally, they need to fix that bullpen or hope that it was Joe Maddon's fault for not getting enough out of it.  



 

 

[BTH]

9 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

And finally, they need to fix that bullpen or hope that it was Joe Maddon's fault for not getting enough out of it.  

Bullpens are so volatile that I’m fine entering the season with that as the team’s biggest perceived weakness on paper.

All it takes is a few internal bounce backs and surprise seasons for the bullpen to go from a weakness to a strength.

 

Just going through the roster:

Maybe a SP is converted to the bullpen and excells. Such as Canning, Daniel, Davidson, Junk, Rodriguez, Silseth, or Soriano.

Maybe a young RP steps up and establishes themselves. Such as Ingram, Marte, Ortega, Peguero, Wantz, or Warren.

Maybe a veteran RP has a bounce back season. Such as Loup, Tepera, or some veteran on a minor league deal.

Maybe there’s a waiver claim or Rule 5 pick who emerges.

Maybe a young RP not on the 40-man emerges. Such as Joyce, Murphy, Torres, Pina, or Hernandez.

Edited November 20, 2022 by Trendon

[BTH]

10 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

And what does it tell us about LF?  If you walk into the season again with expectations of getting 1 win from a corner OF spot then Minasian has failed at his job.

IMO, addressing LF is the single most important move for Minasian to make this winter.

If he can properly address it, that’s a 3+ WAR swing by replacing below replacement level production with average to above average production.

[Docwaukee]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm still pissed that both Adell AND Marsh (and while we're at it, Adams) suck. I was looking forward to the Marsh-Trout-Adell outfield for years.

As for Fangraphs, pretty sure Trout isn't going to hit .257. Just sayin.

speaking of Trout.  

When he came off the DL this year, he walked 15 times in 173 PA (career is 14.9%) with 27 xbh and a 1.056 ops.  He had a swing rate of 46.7%.  His career rate is 38.5%.  He swung at 71.0% of pitches in the zone.  Career of 58.7%.  Swinging strikes went up and called strikes went down.  Is this a new version of Trout we're going to be seeing.

Oh and he put up 2.4 WAR in 173 PA.  

Personally, I think this has more to do with him just not having anyone on base in front of him.  

 

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Bullpens are so volatile that I’m fine entering the season with that as the team’s biggest perceived weakness on paper.

All it takes is a few internal bounce backs and surprise seasons for the bullpen to go from a weakness to a strength.

 

Just going through the roster:

Maybe a SP is converted to the bullpen and excells. Such as Canning, Daniel, Davidson, Junk, Rodriguez, Silseth, or Soriano.

Maybe a young RP steps up and establishes themselves. Such as Ingram, Marte, Ortega, Peguero, Wantz, or Warren.

Maybe a veteran RP has a bounce back season. Such as Loup, Tepera, or some veteran on a minor league deal.

Maybe there’s a waiver claim or Rule 5 pick who emerges.

Maybe a young RP not on the 40-man emerges. Such as Joyce, Murphy, Torres, Pina, or Hernandez.

I'm concerned about the pen for sure, but I'm more confident in our internal options than I've been in a very long time.  And don't forget Bachman.

Which brings me to my next point.  One thing that the Astros have done a really nice job of is transitioning young players up to the majors via the pen and then letting them progress into starters.  

Valdez first year he appeared in 26 games with 8 starts
Last year, Christian Javier made 9 starts in 36 appearances and pitched 101.1 innings
Smaller sample but Luis Garcia moved up his first year and made only one start in 5 appearances.  

I wouldn't mind them taking this approach with guys like Canning, Rodriguez, Silseth, Soriano, Pina, Davidson, and maybe even Daniel.  Perhaps even Joyce and Bachman as well.  

Start them out in the pen getting a couple innings per outing every 2-4 days.  and if they need them in the rotation then let them stretch out.  I don't know.  Maybe that's a bad idea.  

 

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

speaking of Trout.  

When he came off the DL this year, he walked 15 times in 173 PA (career is 14.9%) with 27 xbh and a 1.056 ops.  He had a swing rate of 46.7%.  His career rate is 38.5%.  He swung at 71.0% of pitches in the zone.  Career of 58.7%.  Swinging strikes went up and called strikes went down.  Is this a new version of Trout we're going to be seeing.

Oh and he put up 2.4 WAR in 173 PA.  

Personally, I think this has more to do with him just not having anyone on base in front of him.  

 

2022 was a weird year for Trout. He started hotter than ever, then had his worst slump ever. Then came back and eventually raked. So it was like three different seasons:

Through 5/22: .323/.434/.699, 214 wRC+ | 15.1 BB%, 24.5 K%

5/23 - 7/12: .221/.305/.510, 123 wRC+ | 9.0 BB%, 34.7 K%

8/19 - 10/5: .308/.370/.686, 192 wRC+ | 8.7 BB%, 24.3 K%

The only real consistency is, as you said, his walk rate plummeted around the time he slumped, and then he never regained it - even after the five-week injury. But the K% went back to his early phase. Oh, in both the first and third phase, his HR% was way above career norms - with that SLG approaching .700. 

I have no idea what to expect next year, but if he's healthy I think we could see one of his best years offensively. I expect his walk rate to be back up...players only very rarely reduce walks as they get older. I think he started pressing with that slump, and formed bad habits, and he'll rectify things by next year.

[Warfarin]

8 hours ago, Trendon said:

IMO, addressing LF is the single most important move for Minasian to make this winter.

If he can properly address it, that’s a 3+ WAR swing by replacing below replacement level production with average to above average production.

Right.  Every team will have its flaws, and this team will be heavily dependent on the health of its top players (Trout, Rendon, Ohtani) to succeed, but there are some fairly easy, slam dunk type upgrades that should be made that will help make this team considerably more competitive.

Urshela is a good example of that.  He is a decent player, but the biggest thing with his addition is it takes at bats away from the dreadful options we've had to rotate through the spot the last few years.

Minasian absolutely needs to do the same thing in LF.  Moniak/Adell is NOT a solution.  Adell needs to be in the minors, and Moniak is a 4th OF.  Honestly, even beyond adding a LF, we probably need to consider trying to find some minor league depth to acquire to help have guys waiting in the wings.  

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

Minasian absolutely needs to do the same thing in LF.  Moniak/Adell is NOT a solution.  Adell needs to be in the minors, and Moniak is a 4th OF.  Honestly, even beyond adding a LF, we probably need to consider trying to find some minor league depth to acquire to help have guys waiting in the wings.  

Yeah, I don’t like Moniak or Adell as the immediate depth options.

The first priority is obviously getting a LF that pushes them into depth roles. But beyond that, they probably need another outfielder or two that they can slot ahead of Moniak and Adell on the depth chart.

[Stradling]

https://twitter.com/lionintexas10/status/1594375900543401984?s=46&t=havySFset0oCXNWsorpeqQ
 

for what it’s worth 

[Angel Oracle]

How the heck did 3B end up 10th out of 30, given Rendon’s absence?

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

https://twitter.com/lionintexas10/status/1594375900543401984?s=46&t=havySFset0oCXNWsorpeqQ
 

for what it’s worth 

Two huge concerns 

1 - Labrum surgery is never a good thing.

2 - Reyes has good stuff, but also very dicey control.  2021 season saw 52 BBs in 72 innings.

[Warfarin]

24 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

How the heck did 3B end up 10th out of 30, given Rendon’s absence?

The listed figures are projections for the 2023 season, not the cumulative performance from the 2022 season.  It is a way to see, theoretically, what areas we can improve the most in.

[Pancake Bear]

4 hours ago, Trendon said:

Yeah, I don’t like Moniak or Adell as the immediate depth options.

The first priority is obviously getting a LF that pushes them into depth roles. But beyond that, they probably need another outfielder or two that they can slot ahead of Moniak and Adell on the depth chart.

That's why I could live with standing pat at shortstop, even if I wouldn't be happy with it. Left field would be a gigantic mistake to leave as is. Neither Moniak or Adell have shown any ability to be an everyday outfielder. Fletcher and Rengifo wouldn't be ideal, but neither is a black hole offensively or defensively. 

[Pancake Bear]

15 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm still pissed that both Adell AND Marsh (and while we're at it, Adams) suck. I was looking forward to the Marsh-Trout-Adell outfield for years.

As for Fangraphs, pretty sure Trout isn't going to hit .257. Just sayin.

Does Marsh really suck, though, or was he simply coached poorly?

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Does Marsh really suck, though, or was he simply coached poorly?

Probably coached poorly, and a bit rushed (he barely played in AAA before being called up). But the complete lack of plate discipline implies some degree of self-generated suckage.

I still think he's going to be a good player, maybe very good - and certainly better than Adell will be.

[mmc]

Lol

 

[BTH]

11 minutes ago, mmc said:

Lol

 

Buxton was probably a better defender at 15 than Adell is now.

[Warfarin]

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1

Circling back to this, after the Renfroe trade, we are now #12 in RF (slight downgrade from before, as Renfroe is projected to play in RF instead of Ward) and #11 in LF.

So this trade significantly improved our clear weakness.

[BTH]

46 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1

Circling back to this, after the Renfroe trade, we are now #12 in RF (slight downgrade from before, as Renfroe is projected to play in RF instead of Ward) and #11 in LF.

So this trade significantly improved our clear weakness.

I still hope they get a 4th OF upgrade on Adell/Moniak.

Those two are projected to provide only 0.4 combined WAR in 273 plate appearances.