HBAngel13

@Dave Saltzer one of the best articles we have had on AngelsWin.   Fantastic job!!  I am a big fan of Perry and his approach and am bullish on the future of this team if he is allowed to continue. 

While it’s a bummer to start the season knowing that this is likely not “the year”, I love the approach of assessing the young talent and not chasing free agents that likely won’t change the outcome.  This offseason is as much about what they didn’t do as what they did do.  

Perhaps a hot take, but I give this offseason an A-.  They brought in Wash and staff, avoided LT contracts for mid-tier FA that would block the young guys, and they even committed to a pitching lab to beef up player development.  All of that breeds optimism!

My only criticism of the offseason is they didn’t take better advantage of the payroll space to bring in guys that could shore up depth and possibly have trade value at the deadline. Also, this would have been the perfect time to prey on small market clubs by buying their prospects in exchange for taking on bad 1-2 yr contracts.  Perhaps they can do some of that at the deadline. 

I am as critical of Arte as the next guy, but if he is actually listening to the baseball people now, that is the first step to rehabbing his reputation and legacy.  

Excited to see what this season holds…

I have been against adding Snell on a mega deal, but if he could be had on a three year deal, we should be all over that. I don’t want his contract extending past 2026 when Rendons contract drops off. 

Martinez is a tough one. In a vacuum his bat makes us better, but if his presence prevents us from using the DH to keep Trout and Rendon fresh in addition to pushing Adell out of regular PT, I don’t think the juice is worth the squeeze.  Especially if that would inhibit our ability to shop for another starter from next years FA pool.  

Even with a Snell and Martinez we still need a ton of things to break our way to contend. 

One long shot possibility would be to bring Martinez in and then move Ward in a package for someone like Cease. 

Trading any long term assets (Ward, Moniak, Silseth, etc…) for one year of anyone is exactly what the Angels shouldnt do, especially for a middle infielder.  This team has potential, but they are not one piece away. 

I’m on record as saying “no” to Snell, but if you could overpay on AAV and get him for 4/120 I would be on board with that.  Montgomery at 4/80 would be even better since he won’t cost the pick.

Same applies to Chapman- 3/65

Bellinger is the most tempting seeing as he can play OF and 1B.  Would definitely circle a 5 yr deal.  6 yrs would be a reach.  Plus there would likely be an accompanying trade of an OF for another starter  

Lorenzen at 1/5 is a no-brainer

i still say Bauer makes too much sense.  This teams rep is already at an all time low, just bring him in.  He will cost peanuts so you can just release him if it doesn’t work.  Snell/Montgomery + Bauer and the revamped pen vaults this team into legitimate contention. 

Love the idea of Soler or Martinez’ bat, but not at expense of clogging DH or blocking the young guys.  We need that spot for Trout/Rendon as well as getting ABs for our OF corp.

i would be very careful in giving out out any high AAV deals that stretch past the end of Rendons contract.  If the young players don’t come together, 2026 offseason may be a point to do a scorched earth reset. 

Would be interested in the WAR totals for each milestone. Won’t be exactly apples to apples to compare pitchers to everyday players but curious on the context.  

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

I like him just not sure he’s a fit. Unless you move Schaunel. 

Schanuel should be the main guy at first unless he struggles. Hoskins can DH a chunk of the time and play 1B against lefties.  

My fear with Schanuel is a complete dearth of power at a corner infield spot.  

I hope the Angels are taking a look at Rhys Hoskins. He could probably be had on a high AAV pillow contract.  From what I understand, he would provide some coverage at 1B and not totally clog the DH spot. Would also be a great deadline trade piece if we aren’t in contention.  If healthy, he is probably in the ballpark with Soler and Martinez. 

As unsexy as this offseason has been, I do like this overall approach. Shore up depth with calculated moves that don’t hamstring the future.  If the arms aren’t there to help the rotation at a reasonable cost, keep building out the pen to compensate. The SP FA options are much stronger next year and by then we should have a better idea on the young guys development curve. 

While it won’t impact 2024, I do like the idea of a 2-yr get healthy gamble on Brandon Woodruff.  

Also, I know many of us have written off Suarez, but he is only a year removed from being a quality back-end innings eater.  I think the pitch clock probably messed with him a bit.  If Enright can get him back on track, that would be huge for our young starters adjusting to a heavier workload  

Keep raising the floor Perry.  

I would love a Sandoval for Musgrove/Kim package with Angels picking up the tab. Trade simulator has the deal tipped in the Pads favor, so perhaps Angels could get a prospect and/or a reliever to even it out.

4/80 for Musgrove is a better deal than what Snell, Montgomery or Stroman will net.  Angels would still be $40Mish under the luxury tax threshold and could make other moves.  Plus the deal doesn’t torpedo the future.  

Acquiring Kim would make for a crowded infield. Could open the door for a Drury trade. I prefer to keep Renigfo and put him at 3rd three times a week if Rendon is in there. Otherwise he is the utility guy. Either way, he should be getting everyday ABs. 

i wouldn’t give away Drury, but if you could cash him in for decent prospects and/or a leverage reliever and then reinvest the money in SP or pen, I would definitely do it. 

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Blake Snell … is an elite ace. 

 

I wouldn’t agree with this. He can pitch at that level, but not consistently.  Therein lies the problem with giving him a 7 yr contract. 

I would love Snell on a 3-yr deal or Bellinger on a 4-yr deal, but 7 and 12 (?) is a poor choice for those players. 

Ask SD how they feel about that Xander Boegarts contract after one year….

Another great episode Chuck!  Keep ‘em coming!

I like Snell in a vacuum, but my fear is the cost and years, especially for a team that is likely 2 years away from making a serious push.  Not saying they can’t win in 2024/2025, but so much would have to come together just right.  Snell is a very good pitcher that can be great, but he isn’t Gerritt Cole.  

Working off the premise that the next year or two are transition years, I would prefer guys on 1-3 yr deals.  Last offseason there was a lot of discussion about “raising the floor”.  Our final record didn’t reflect it, but I think that philosophy served us very well and would like to see that continued in 2024.  Target guys that can give solid performance on a reasonable commitment. I don’t think Snell fits that profile. 

Garver would also allow O’Hoppe to DH and get closer to a full season of ABs without diluting our in-game coverage at C. O’Hoppe looks like a 25-30 HR bat which will backfill some of the power drain from losing Ohtani.  

Really liking this the more I mull on it. 

MLB trade rumors had Garver at 3/39.  I would do that yesterday given what everyone has stated above.

Great post!  I like the Garver suggestion a ton if he can play a competent 1B and still catch occasionally. Kind of an ideal fit. We likely need to reserve a chunk of DH AB’s for Rendon and Trout, but Garvers positional flexibility could work well here.  Not sure what his market is, but a 2-3 yr deal works for me.  

I like Pederson as well.  Kind of a poor man’s Bellinger without the long term commitment.  He would be a good FA backfill IF we could package one of the OF for a controllable pitcher (probably Moniak).  Otherwise he is redundant. I think Ward and Adell’s trade value is down and they are worth more to us as upside performers going into the season.  Although Ward is a guy I would look to move at the deadline if we are out of it. 

Martinez/Soler would be good adds, but would clog DH.  They will be expensive as well.  These are the “win-now” moves that we should probably shy away from. 

I don’t see us as 2024 contenders, so I would opt for a multi-year deal for Garver.

PS - I think Snell would be a mistake, so “no” to Sanchez.  

38 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Bellinger getting 200 mill here are players I add instead Garver 40 mill 3 years, Hicks 36 for 3 years, Clevenger 24 mill 2 years, Belt 7 mill 1 year, Anderson 7 mill 1 year, Stroman 60 mill 3 years. This adds depth and starters plus BP piece. You can find many combination for 200 mill. 

This is actually not bad. I would pass on Stroman, but the other moves make sense if the team wants to try and compete in the short term without destroying future flexibility. 

Stroman seems like fools gold to me.

25 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Well, if I signed Bellinger, Adell plays every day and Ward is traded for pitching with Moniak the 4th OF or the starter if Bellinger gets a start at 1B.

So I don’t view it as a choice between Bellinger and Adell.  I view it as securing a player to free up a cost-controlled body to help trade for pitching. 

 

I like the idea of trading Ward for pitching as well, but given that nasty injury he likely needs to show he can come back first. If he is back to his old self, we should definitely entertain moving him at the deadline. 

I would be much more interested to see what Jo Adell is capable of over a full season for the MLB minimum than making a $200m commitment to Bellinger.  .240 and 25HR from Adell seems like a possibility with a full season of ABs

Im in the camp that we aren’t competing in 2024 save for an unprecedented streak of good health, career years and home run FA signings. As such, let Adell, Moniak and Ward play it out. See what you have and look to improve the OF in 2025 if the need still exists.  All those guys have the potential to be average to above average regulars. Give them a chance… there is nothing to lose at this point. 

Don’t do it Perry…

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

It’ll be interesting to see where we go.  Snell and Montgomery are still out there and both are Boras clients. Stroman is out there. Then you have Montas and Mannea.  Bauer but I’m not sure he’s going to be signed by anyone. 

I would be pretty excited by Bauer and Montas. Both could probably be had on 1-yr pillow deals. 

Flaherty feels like a great get on that 1/14 pillow deal. Wish Perry would have jumped on that.

In a vacuum, I would tend to pass on Bauer due to the optics and the potential character issues. However he is exactly what the Angels need - a high ceiling, low risk deal.  Give him the Syndegaard deal with an option and there is almost no downside. If he comes in and behaves/performs, the club has a potential TOR arm without the 5-7 year commitment attached someone like Snell. If he lays an egg, who cares?  It’s not like this organization has a stellar reputation right now for a variety of reasons.  

This team needs some lightning in a bottle to compete in 2024.  It’s the perfect time to roll the dice on Bauer.
 

On paper it should be 2024, even before any significant additions. In reality?  Probably 2025 or maybe 2026 depending how the youngsters progress  

8-10 WAR combined from Trout and Rendon would go a long way to curing this teams ills. They have to start getting consistent production from the highly paid players.  

You can mask the symptoms with some free agents, but the cure lies within. 

It seems like there are great value options on the pitching side this year - Wacha, Lorenzen, Lugo, Montas and Flaherty could all help this team without breaking the bank. Especially if they allow you to flip Sandoval to a team like BAL for a couple longer term pieces to pair with the young core. 

12 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Don’t think it needs a full rebuild. Punting one year and trading guys on expiring contracts now instead of the deadline - Estevez and Drury - and maybe one arb. player like Sandoval or Rengifo, isn’t a rebuild in my book. I wouldn’t deal all of them, but definitely think moving one is wise because they actually have good value and are unlikely to really be a critical part of the next core. Even if they did do that, I’d still advocate for them signing another reliever and infielder for comprable 2-yr deals to replace those guys for this year and have them around next year too, which I think is a more viable year to start competing again.

Well it’s a discussion board, I’ll keep discussing it. And punting 2024 doesn’t mean giving up on 2024, it just means avoiding monster contracts for guys like Snell or Bellinger who aren’t contracts worth gambling on. Of course the Angels are going to say they’re going to be competitive, they haven’t stopped saying that for a decade yet they’ve never really been competitive. That doesn’t mean what’s said in public is what’s happening in private. 

And fwiw, Arte has shown some signs of ‘changing’ in that he 1) let Perry talk him away from Trea Turner 2) spent more last winter than anticipated, pushing payroll to its highest by a decent amount, and 3) went even further with deadline adds. Obviously that didn’t all work out, but it deviated from years prior. 

Back to 2024…they absolutely can still compete this year, and I don’t think they should tear down or avoid spending - they just need to do it in a manner that supports 2025+ more than 2024. They could sign Snell and Bellinger tomorrow, call it an offseason, and all they really did was replace Ohtani with two players a la Bavasi’s “8-7 pitchers”, perhaps two players who are far riskier. 

Trade Drury and Estevez now. Move an arb guy if it gets you a really good return. Sign a couple 3/30 type deals, be it a Lugo, Lorenzen, Wacha, maybe even a Gurriel or Soler, a 2/16 type reliever to closer. Even open to Yamamoto or the other Asian players coming over. And try your hand on a couple 1-yr gambles; Giolito, Montas, Flaherty, Alrodis, Tim Anderson, Joey Gallo, whoever fits and whoever has a decent chance at bringing back another Moniak+Sanchez at deadline. That team couple be competitive, could be bad, but it won’t have cost the Angels so much that 2025+ is a financial mess.

Totally in agreement with this. I don’t think they are THAT far away with the emergence of the young core. Use 2024 to figure out who is for real and then push the chips in for 2025. If they get uncharacteristic good luck and health, they could compete for final WC this next year, but they shouldn’t bank on that.  
 

Perry should be opportunistic this offseason on trades for the Drury/Estevez/Renigfo/Ward/Sandoval group, but those guys should have value at the deadline as well. Sandoval is the guy that probably brings you the most now. 

Yamamoto - 10/300

Bauer - 1/25 with club option for 2025

Flaherty/Lugo - 3/45 or Wacha for 3/35

Trade Sandoval for MLB ready position player and lower level arms

Couple more budget pen arms

If we can exceed the tax, bring in JD Martinez, Hoskins, or Soler - 2/40

If we can’t exceed the tax, stick with our current hitters, or trade Drury and bring in Martinez or Hoskins.  Maybe you get the Renfroe return for Drury and save the money.  With Fletcher gone, Rendon on the roster and Neto getting nicked up we probably need to keep Drury.  Maybe you can stretch 100 games out of Rendon if he DHs most of the time.

Renigfo, Moniak, Adell, Schanuel, Neto and O’Hoppe need to be in there regularly so we get some answers.  If those guys move forward, we are in good shape for the 2025 to 2028.