Angels in 2030

It would be idiotic at this point to invest $600 million on Ohtani after not even recovering from elbow surgery and won't pitch until 2025. It would be idiotic to make that offer even if he hadn't required a second Tommy John surgery. These are athletes not some piece of artwork you store in a climate controlled environment. 
Yesterday Trevor Lawrence had his own lineman step on his ankle, taking him out of the game and possibly the season. Anything can happen to an athlete on the field so these 10 year contracts are stupid, the investment drawing nearly 1/4 of payroll on one player is stupid.
I hope Minasian doesn't end up as the donkey that writes up one of these contracts. 

I’m not sure what’s more embarrassing.  The collapse right after the big TDL deals and resulting player waivers…..or the celebration for getting below the level.  Either way, just a sad/pathetic set of events.  There really should be no padding on the back involved here.  

I'm in the minority for sure, but I have no interest in signing a player to a 500 million dollar deal.  We've been, and continue to be, down the road of having a few high-priced star position players that hinder our ability to complete a roster (read: resources towards high-end SP and BP).  I'm exhausted with the approach.

You're serious with that comment?  I sure hope not.
The reason they have a lot of guys making the majors is because the team suck and they are promoting fast in a desperate move for success.  Not to mention, as i stated, they are drafting advanced college players early on in hopes to get them onto the team as soon as possible.  Most are high floor, low ceiling types.  Which is fine.  But where are the potential stars and elite players?  It's basically our farm system sucks and we have no organizational depth.  So we need to draft some immediate depth now to salvage hopes of trying to contend for playoffs during Trout (& more so) Ohtani's time.  
which is fine and fully understandable.  But let's not pretend that the Angels are onto something great here and new methodology for MLB franchises building a team.  This is no TB Rays organization.  It's a desperate team taking desperate measures.  I'm not sure why some try so hard to sugar coat it.  We're adults (mostly of us) -- we can admit the failings of the organization and what its been & currently now is.  Fanbases around baseball are not exactly envious of the Angels and their organization (that's being kind). 
We all hope for the best and hope we can get very lucky to turn it around quickly.  But that's really all we have...hoping for luck...and LOTS of it.  Because reality and the facts are against this organization compared to the rest of the league.

I know it’s not the plan but drafting a couple R5 guys would fit real nice in my ‘2024 transition’ year. Perry’s good at finding quick-to-bigs guys, so I have some built-in trust that he could add a viable piece or two, and it’d go a long way to lessening the prospects we lost at deadline.

Ironically, that’s Snell to me, just on a much higher level.
22 career WAR, and 13 of that in two seasons of 6 and 7 WAR. Every other year he’s 1-2 WAR max. Griffin Canning was 2 WAR last year.
I know it’s not a fantastic measure of success or indicator of future success, but to me that really emphasizes how erratic he is. When he’s on, he is quite literally one of, if not the, best SP in baseball. Problem is the track record indicates you may only get that once or twice on this deal, and just a #3-4 guy the other years. 
Couple that with the fact he’s getting older and led the league in walks, I can’t see him being a worthy gamble. Not when 2024-25 are probably his best bets be a frontline arm when he have too many other needs. 

He’s a good pitcher, but there are a lot of good pitchers available next year too who feel a whole heck of a lot safer investment.
If they sign Snell, cool, let’s do this, but man I think that contract is gonna hurt. I know he’s effectively wild now, but signing a guy who led the league in walks, has a .500 WP% if you remove his best year, is coming from a pitcher-friendly ballpark and division, all while averaging just a hair over 5 innings per game screams a landmine. He’s been brilliant in his two Cy seasons, but a 1-2 WAR pitcher in every other. 
If we’re gonna sign a frontline lefty, I’ll say go land Eduardo Rodriguez for a 4-5 year deal around $100m/$20-25m AAV, then try to sign Burnes or one of the other SoCal guys next winter. Burnes, ERod, Detmers, Canning, Sandoval.

Been saying this for years. If we could have five guys give us 20+ starts of #3 production we would’ve made the playoffs a handful of times the last decade.
We have a lot of inconsistent/ceiling of #3’s, not a rotation of #3s. 
Snell is way too risky and I like next years big money arms more. Get 2 guys this year on 1-3 year deals and plunk down pen money, add a mid-tier bat if you’re able. 

Its' a lot closer than many people realize -- Snell obviously has had the best individual seasons and the longer track record but the gap isn't as wide as people may believe.
Looking at their most previous seasons you get this
Age 28-30, 83 GS, 436.2 IP, 125 ERA+ 3.36 FIP 1.232 WHIP, 6.6 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.5 BB/9, 11.9 K/9
Age 29-30, 67 GS, 427.1 IP,  142 ERA+ 3.30 FIP, 1.215 WHIP, 7.4 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 7.9 K/9
The biggest takeaway for me here and my biggest concern with Snell sticks out like a sore thumb.  Despite starting 16 fewer games (one less season), Wilson only pitched 9.1 fewer innings. Snell is a 5 inning guy in most years.
Snell's walk rate is also worse, yes his K rate is significantly better but some of that is the era we are in. Wilson did a much better job of keeping the ball in the park, the difference in hits allowed is noise considering the environments they pitched in.  Snell's home parks have always been extreme pitcher parks, even after all the changes in SD it's had a pitcher park factor of 93 (100 the average). Wilson by comparison pitched in a park where the pitcher park factor averaged out to 114 his two seasons as a SP.
Snell is talented when he's 100%.  The problem is to be 100% he's tended to need a lot of rest.  Now, if the Angels were to continue having a 6 man rotation maybe they get a lot more out of him but the guy's sketchy health record should be concerning to people, particularly Angel fans that have seen many a season done under by SP injuries.
I think Snell the person is kind of fun, he pops off, says what's on his mind and can be an entertaining interview -- guys like that can have a positive effect on other pitchers to be honest there's a bit of John Lackey in the way he speaks his mind which I always liked about Lackey.  But I do wonder how long he will pitch and how effectively. Guys who rely on being effectively wild (Snell's BB/9 last season was 4.95), are prone to falling off a cliff when they do start to lose their stuff and the movement quiets down.
The sad reality is that dipping into the mid tier of SP tends to end up worse than the top of the FA world so it might be a situation where they are stuck with a highly overpriced slightly better than average or league average SP or a less overpriced and significantly less effective pitcher. 
Pick your poison.

Big pass on Snell for me

That is true.  
However, from 2019-2022, he averaged just under 5 innings/start.
That history makes a big money, big years contract a big risk.

Look, you guys only see it as a money issue, it isn't.
When I bought my SLK there was a Ferrari Modena on the showroom floor next to it. When it came to the finance side the salesman was shocked at my credit rating, pointed to the Modena and said, you can afford that. My response was, yes, I can make the payment but I can't afford the $8k brake jobs, $4k in tires, $3,500 oil change and tuneup, and God forbid anything really goes down because an engine rebuild cost over $65k. 
Those two guys are affordable but you can't maintain them and keep the roster updated for eventual pay raises for all of the young talent surrounding them. So they are a Ferrari you can't take out of the garage but a couple times a month. 
And that's why that Modena was being sold as used with low mileage, the owner couldn't afford what he could buy. I signed the papers on my SLK and drove the hell out of it. And when it about wore out I traded it for a newer model. 

Agree.  Angels should pass on Ohtani and rebuild.  It's time.  (Won't happen, but it should.)

Why should the Angels offer him that if other teams shouldn’t?
I’d argue that the Angels shouldn’t offer him that much because it’ll be impossible to build a good team around him when you’re paying him $45-$50 million. Especially when he can’t pitch in year one.

Am I the only one who thinks it’s actually insane to give Ohtani more than $450-500 million?  I actually think the only team that should offer him that much is the Angels. But for another team to risk that much money for a DH that just had a second TJ surgery? He’s a unicorn because he does both at a very high level but what if he’s just a decent pitcher with a 3.90 ERA that pitches every 6th day. Some team is giving him $50 million a year?  It’s way too much risk. Yes I know he’s got a great bat, but he’s a DH. Sure he can play outfield if he decides not to pitch anymore but that won’t happen until he’s 32 or 33.  How many outfielders are plus defenders at that age?  And none are plus defenders after taking a decade off from playing the outfield. 
Welcome to my Ted Talk. 

If there’s a bunch of fender benders in the parking lot then it’s fantastic news.

Who wants to tell him 

Send the money to me in Canada and I'll place a bet for you 😀

It’s the repetition that ruins the threads.  

I have been apart of this community for idk close to 10 years now. I don’t think I’ve even posted since the old AW site but I lurk from the shadows damn near everyday. However I logged back in today for the first time in years just to say that your posts are insufferable to follow. Just utterly annoying… but I mean no disrespect. 

We were not the favorites for Ohtani either. It’s Perry’s job to sell him . Maybe he’d dig on turning the team around when #17 didn’t. You never know what motivates a guy.

Buyer beware on Snell.  I think the team that signs him will regret it a lot earlier than usual.  
 
But more so, I think the Angels are not true contenders this year.  It’s the long game and I think the 25 year old is a much better fit for what this team is currently and going forward.  

Buyer beware on Snell.  I think the team that signs him will regret it a lot earlier than usual.  
 
But more so, I think the Angels are not true contenders this year.  It’s the long game and I think the 25 year old is a much better fit for what this team is currently and going forward.  

Buyer beware on Snell.  I think the team that signs him will regret it a lot earlier than usual.  
 
But more so, I think the Angels are not true contenders this year.  It’s the long game and I think the 25 year old is a much better fit for what this team is currently and going forward.