angelsnationtalk

What you don’t understand is they don’t need to take a giant leap forward.  What I am telling you is our guys are a year away, so with normal growth they will move up, a lot of teams ranked ahead of us will be graduating those prospects that cause their farm to be ranked as high.  I’ll ask you this.  Is Toronto’s farm better with Vlad Jr or without?  Oh and your notion that “not being ready to help now doesn’t suggest it will be ready at any point in the future” is such a wad of shit.  So Forrest Whitley who I believe is the number one pitching prospect in baseball isn’t major league ready, but he is a legit prospect.  But according to your belief that means he shouldn’t be counted on.  If that is what you are saying then Houston probably shouldn’t be ranked very high because well their best prospect isn’t major league ready.  
 

Flop, you are wrong on whether or not a farm is highly unlikely to move up 5-7 spots in a year.  Just by the simple fact that you are saying our farm isn’t ready to help right now is proof that it will probably move up in the rankings.  Most of the time the reasons a farm is rank so high is they have that one stud.  So when we look at some of the teams ahead of us you’d have to assume that some of those teams have that one stud that will move up to the majors.  Lets just say the Blue Jays are being rated so high because of Vlad Jr.  Well he is going to be in the majors next season.  Now it is possible that Adell makes the jump and that puts us back again, but not totally expected.  Also I am not sure why you keep moving the cross bars on the farm from 20, to 21 and now to 22.  As it relates to Eppler and signing guys before the farm is ready, well if the player they sign is young enough to still be really good when the farm is ready he would sign that guy.  Whether or not that happens I don’t know, but they did go hard after the top free agent pitcher this year with the goal of being that transitional guy.  

Gerrit Cole and Nolan Arenado are both Newport Beach residents... cough cough

Except the timing hasn’t quite been right. I do expect the Angels to go after the big names the closer we get some of the youth more established on the major league roster. 

Except they tried to spend money this offseason. This class just wound up preferring East Coast. And the club should become a little cheaper as some prospects should stick this season. 

I'd have to imagine that since they pursued Corbin this offseason, Gerrit Cole, a Cali product, will be on their radar next offseason.

I’d leave Cozart to possibly fill 3B and platoon with Ward when he’s up and let Fletcher take 2B to start and then compete with Rengifo when he’s up. 
Is wait till the deadline to try and deal Cozart to unload some salary and then take a run at Arenado next offseason. 

Bryce Harper: only hit .249 last year and was horribly defensively.  Had only a 1.3 WAR, He is my choice.  

1. Jo Adell - Starts the season strong in AA then gets the call up to AAA, remains with solid numbers. Potential end of the year call-up if he stays consistent and improves strikeout rate.
2. Griffin Canning - He will figure it out with a sub 4.00era in AAA. Will get the mid-season call to MLB.
3. Brandon Marsh - Will go to AA early in season, if not start there. Much better at the dish, defensive monster in the outfield. 
4. Jose Suarez - First to be called up to MLB. Likely on roster for good by August. 
5. Jahmai Jones - HR and BA numbers in AA will stay high, quick call up to AAA and remains a solid player. Figures it out at 2B, Hits around .260 -.280 in AAA. If he has an amazing season, we could see a September call-up to MLB, but not likely. 
6. Luis Rengifo - BA stays high in AAA and will be a September call-up. Will battle Fletcher/Ward for IF spot.  
7. Jordyn Adams - Starts showing some Jo Adell Stats in low ball as he found his groove before injury. 
8. Taylor Ward - Split time in Majors/AAA. Will hit around .230-.250 in mlb and considers move to 1B towards end of season. Battle it out with Thaiss.
9. Pat Sandoval - Stats remain insane in AA then gets a decently timed call-up to AAA. Stats flatten to normal. 
10. Matt Thaiss - Becomes a solid consistent hitter, September call-up. Chance for battle with Bour and Ward at 1B for 2020. Odd man out becomes trade bait. 
11. Jeremiah Jackson -  Starts in Orem. Average hitter but with chance to flash good numbers.
12. D'Shawn Knowles - Starts the season where he left off last season, will be in high A ball by end of year. Chance to fly through the minors.  
13. Kevin Maitan - I really think he figures it out this year and starts playing the way scouts thought. 
14. Jose Soriano - Effectively wild. Very young has height and will need to fill into his own body. Possibly shows flashes of dominance.  

I don’t think Trout is the kind of player that wants the opt out. He probably wants a contract that will last him till retirement and given a chance to win and that’s it. Don’t get me wrong, he’ll get payed big bucks, but I think he just wants to play baseball. 
After Harper and Machado sign, the Angels will get to work in the FO about presenting numbers to Trout. Either during ST or towards the end of the season they will sit him down and say we want you an Angel for life, and here’s how we do that. They’ll give him a massive number and show him their future plans for winning and he’ll simply sign his name.
We’re talking about the most humble player in the game who wants to play baseball and that’s it. He doesn’t want to flash his name around and be a cocky player that thinks he’s top dog. He knows he’s top dog but he acts like a regular player that loves his teammates and fans. Make him feel special and he’ll easily sign. Period.

Everything the Angels are doing so far this off-season shows a team that is focusing on 2020 and beyond and when it comes to the Trout's next contract, those are the years he will care about.  Trout won't give a crap that the Angels have been around a .500 team the last several years.  He will care about what the team will look like 2020+ and I'm confident that the Angels organization are selling him on this right now.  The question will be whether Trout buys into this plan or not.

Money won't be a factor at all as the Angels will offer him pretty much any contract he wants.

i get your thinking here AJ and obviously there’s appeal for Trout, but I really dislike the idea of giving him an opt out.  If the Angels are going to sign him they need to make him an Angel for life.  He means more to the organization then a typical FA.  I think it’s important that they make sure he wears an Angels cap his entire career and just get this over with.  This guy isn’t a 33 year old Albert Pujols.  There’s an unquantifiable value in making him our Stan Musial or Tony Gwynn. 

It's difficult to envision someone with Canning's repertoire being anything less than a mid rotation starter. It isn't often you find someone with as much collegiate success, sitting in the mid-90s with two plus offspeed pitches and another average offering. If you do find someone like that, they typically leave the draft board in the first 5-10 picks of the first round. 
One of the better draft picks in a collection of great picks from Eppler.

Trout being extended is more than likely to happen. There's no rush, both parties are happy with each other, and the future of the Angels looks good as well.

you can never get full value for Trout in a trade. The package another team could afford without completely decimating their franchise and defeating the purpose of acquiring him maxes out at a certain point.  It also wouldn't make a ton of sense for the acquiring team to negatively impact their current major league roster.  So what you're really talking about is getting prospects back. 
Does that package go down between now and 18 months from now?  I don't think so.  I think it just gets closer to being of appropriate value.  
The other thing you do by keeping Trout is give yourself more time to get some of the kids on the field to actually show some of that future value.  
If I were Trout, I would definitely want to win in 2019 and 2020, but the number in the win column for those two years would have a material impact on whether I am staying for another 10 years.  What would have an impact for me is whether Ohtani is the real deal, whether Barria continues to perform, whether Simmons and Heaney and Skaggs are still going to be there.  Whether Canning and Suarez and Buttrey and Middleton perform well.  Whether Fletcher or Ward or Thaiss or Jones or Rengifo can become good everyday players.  And finally, is Arte going to financially support that core when the time comes and will there be excess on the farm to make those couple of big trades to complete the puzzle?  

I'll allow @Jeff Fletcher to explain it:
 
hope that helps 

Here's the thing about Arte spending more if he wanted to:
convince him that raising payroll would be worth it.  He's got a professional baseball general manager sitting right next to him along with a lot of other baseball professionals.  
If the Angels were currently in a situation where the construct of the team was such that this was our 'last best shot', don't you think we'd be proceeding differently?  
So everyone sits in a room a determines if spending an additional 30mil would significantly change the odds for this team.  
Take a good hard look at what this team is.  Now spend an additional 30m and then tell me what it is.  For 2019, that would amount to Moustakas, Robertson, and Grandal.  
Does that make you the favorite for the division?  Does that put you in the ballpark of competing for the division?  Does that make you a shoe in for a WC spot when you've got two teams in the east that could win 100 games?  
At the end you likely just gave yourself a better chance to play one more game and you still need a bunch of other positive things to happen as well. 
I guarantee that when setting the budget, this was all part of the discussion and this is how people who do this for a living thought was the best way to proceed.   

Okay so my understanding is the threshold is $206M anything over that gets taxed based on first year, second year or third year offenses.
The budget is around $180M for us right? This is just the internal budget i assume

I don’t feel it is a foregone conclusion, I just think there is much more than a 50-50 chance he signs an extension.  I have given a ton of thought to me being wrong about it and here is where I stand on it.  I would rather be the organization that loses him to free agency than the team that trades him.  As everyone has stated you won’t get fair value in return.  I would prefer Eppler bet on himself to re-sign him rather than trade him.  It really is that simple.  
As for you trying to avoid the worst signing guys to “try to keep Trout” would be a horrible idea.  You’d have no Trout and you’d have guys you more than likely over paid to get here to play with Trout.  The 2-3 year guys aren’t the difference between him staying or going.  It is guys like Ohtani, Simmons and hopefully Adell that are going to keep him from leaving, along with $400 million.  
If the contracts aren’t what everyone anticipated them being when this off season started for Harper and Machado and those guys get $300-325 million over 8-10 years, Trout is not turning down $400 million.  Yes he is better, but when he hits free agency he will be two years older than those guys are and with the direction of free agency dollars, he would be more inclined to take the money in a place where he is comfortable and where he has stated he loves to play.  

It would get better. The Angels don’t look strong at all right now and I think that’s where we’re getting confused. Eppler is setting the Angels up to be a strong and potentially dominant team in the 2020’s which will be the beginning of Trout’s extension. Trout more than likely sees that and that should be enough to easily create extension talks from both sides.

I would not say fine, no, but i would be able to understand and support the process better if the possibility of him walking was off the table.  I would still be a bit peeved they decided to not do more with 19 when they could/should have, but far less so than i am if the possible implications were not there. 

I know you feel Trout re-signing is a foregone conclusion, and thats fine, but im a wait till the ink is on the paper guy.   Consider for one moment, just one short moment, if you are wrong... What if Trout walks and we get next to nothing, what if the farm guys dont suddenly become more than they are today, where does that leave this club?  You assume the best case scenario, im trying to avoid the worst.

this is a bummer to write, but Cozart is very likely to be Eppler's version of Gary Matthews Jr.  Luckily for fewer years.  If there's a team that needs a SS and you have a chance to move him, you do it in a heartbeat.  He's very unlikely to recoup value by actually playing more.  

If Trout were signed to an extension, I'd punt on 2019 and position this team to compete in 2020. I'd look at how the team could afford a guy like Arenado and a pitcher like Gerrit Cole after this year.  I'd keep every prospect and hope that beginning in 2020, guys like Adell, Rengifo, Thaiss, Canning and Suarez could offset the big dollars going to Trout, Arenado, Upton, Pujols, Simmons and Cole (or other such pitcher).
I'd also try hard to sign Heaney and Simmons to extensions.

It would get better. The Angels don’t look strong at all right now and I think that’s where we’re getting confused. Eppler is setting the Angels up to be a strong and potentially dominant team in the 2020’s which will be the beginning of Trout’s extension. Trout more than likely sees that and that should be enough to easily create extension talks from both sides.

I could see Seattle getting him just so that we don't.  They're probably still butt hurt over Ohtani.  They can obviously spend more.  
I still hope we get him but on a Maeda type deal.  

Thanks for the info. The more I think about it, the more it makes sense. Kikuchi, which could be an injury concern, is a “risk” worth taking if say 6/42m is the number being tossed around. This sets the Angels up with great depth come 2020 and beyond when Ohtani is back plus Canning and Suarez. 
Thinking more about it, the sense of how the organization is run and how Ohtani, out of all other teams, liked the Angels the most speaks highly of how this can work. 7million for 6 years of Kikuchi sounds very feasible. And if he’s not as sought after as most people originally thought, then that price can come down. 
I’ve got a feeling that Kikuchi to the Angels makes more and more sense every day. We will find out very soon if it’s true.