Warfarin

I know most people assume you have to spend a lot of money to win, but the Rays (and Guardians for awhile) prove every year that you don't.  A team with a strong analysis and scouting department can circumvent player payroll.  What we need Arte to do, beyond all else, is invest heavily in those areas.  It DOES seem like he is starting to, but that is only a fairly recent development.

We have some good young talent, but obviously need more.  What we CAN'T do, IMO, is start trading our young talent for "win now" type moves.  Keep developing players, see if you can overpay (within reason) for a player or two, and then keep building from within.

On 12/12/2023 at 11:12 AM, johndw52 said:

Will this salary loophole start a trend among other .large market teams? And will MLB make any attempts to minimize its negative impact on smaller market teams? Looks like that ship has not only sailed but has split the iceberg. 

On 12/12/2023 at 11:35 AM, mmc said:

Most players don’t make enough in endorsements to be comfortable living on a replacement level player salary during their playing career when they have the option to make a lot more

Yep, this.  I think I read that Ohtani makes like 40 million a year in endorsements?  His salary is just icing on the cake.  

4 hours ago, mmc said:

 

Errr, that's interesting.  Mark Walter is 63 years old.  What if he like.. dies suddenly?  Can Ohtani opt out then?  

Seems rather interesting that the people who offered this contract (Walter, Friedman) can include a provision that essentially guarantees them 10 year job security.

@T.G., I hear what you are saying and totally get it from a fan perspecitve.  I have positive memories of those players in the same way for the way they spent their careers here.

In Shohei's case, though, I likewise totally get this move and don't fault him for it either.  Shohei can achieve something that very few ever can - he could, quite possibly, be the greatest player to have ever played this sport.  To do this, though, he needed to go to a team that both maximizes his chances at winning championships AND maximizes his own abilities, to achieve amazing statistical accomplishments for many years.

Sadly, Ohtani's chances of achieving the above, and being remembered as the greatest player to have ever played this sport, are probably less with us than it would have been with the Dodgers or teams in their tier.

5 minutes ago, aznhockeyguy said:

Forgot about the deferrals.  Much more manageable for the Dodgers to get other pieces for the team. 

I was discussing with a friend that if Shohei wasn't Japanese, he wouldn't have received the 700mil contract.  Teams know he brings in so much additional revenue, that'll probably pay for the additional money he's given in the contract. 

He is a unique talent, so he'd likely generate revenue regardless of ethnicity, but yes - there is a GIANT market in Japan that Ohtani captures, and that is what in turn leads to a lot of the merchandise/revenue/etc.

The Dodgers are run by a financial corporation, so they likely aren't ones to "overbid" for a player based on emotion in the way that an individual owner would (Arte, Cohen, etc).  This is likely all entirely financially-driven, and they likely will profit significantly off of this deal.

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

What will be the first move the Angels make?  I am thinking the first move is a move they could have made while Ohtani was still in question, someone like Flaherty or Hicks, maybe a re-signing of Urshela.  I would say Snell or Bellinger, but they are both Boras clients and I think now that Ohtani has been signed he will drag these signings out, and get teams that aren’t in the mix anymore to drive up the prices.  

I think you are right in that it'll be dragged out.  With Snell, he'll probably wait until after Yamamoto is off the board, since Yamamoto has a distinct timeline, and he'll pit the losers of that battle against each other as the SP market dries up.

45 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Joc is no longer a competent  outfielder 

Not particularly, no, but he could conceivably be mainly a DH who starts a handful of games in LF (i.e. like 15-20?) as needed to rotate some others through the DH spot to give them a day off.

He can probably be hidden in LF for a chunk of the game, then replaced by a defensive replacement in the later innings under those circumstances.

He's still a very good bat against RHH, and this team is going to need more lineup balance moving forward.  He also likely won't require much of a commitment, either.

9 minutes ago, Robrock30 said:

JD Martinez is the obvious first move no?

Maybe, but I think this team needs some LHH.  As it stands now, all we really have is Rengifo (who is a switch hitter), Moniak, and Schanuel.  Maybe someone like Joc Peterson, who can DH but also play some LF, could be an option to fill that spot.

4 hours ago, aznhockeyguy said:

I predicted that Shohei would sign with the Dodgers in Free Agency towards the middle of the season.  It made too much sense.  For those of you bashing him for leaving and going to the Dodgers, can't fault a person who gave it his all to a poorly run organization, then decided to go to a team with great management and track record of winning, while also giving you top dollar.  No one here would do reject that offer, so why do you expect Shohei to? All of us would leave a job with crap management & support staff to a rival company that has better management & staff, and offers you much more money. 

As for the move itself, Shohei is perhaps the best pure hitter and is worth, as just a hitter around 4-6 WAR.  This alone would've gotten him a contract in the 10yr/350-400 million range.  His career hitting stats is pretty much inline with David Ortiz's stats in terms of OPS and OPS+.  His pitching stats also give him another 4-6 WAR a season for the past 3 seasons, which would've given him a contract of the same range as a hitter had he not have had a 2nd TJ surgery.  While the price tag is insane, it's not out of this world that he got it.  Hard to say how he'll do pitching wise after the surgery, but I wouldn't doubt him.  I do worry about the wear and tear and injury concerns as he approaches the mid 30s.  A tremendous risk, but one worth taking for a tremendous and unique player. 

Sad to lose the unicorn, and I'll miss watching him every game. 

Agreed, and I don't think anyone is really faulting him, and really, no one is faulting the FO for not matching that either.  I think most of the frustration is just mainly directed at Arte and the team for not investing heavily in the team during the prime Trout/Ohtani years to get more out of that duo, and this signing is just the culmination of all those years of built-up frustration.

The contract is a risk, but probably not nearly to the extent that people think.  If Doc's friend's report is true, that the contract is more like a 52mil AAV deal given deferrals, then this is actually probably more of a low risk deal.  Ohtani alone generates ~25mil per year or so of revenue for a team based on advertising/merch/etc, from what I read.  It's probably fair to assume that number will further increase as a Dodger with a more global brand,  but even if they don't, that means they need Ohtani to be "worth" 52 - 25 = 27mil AAV on the field, which given his unique talents, seems like it'd be incredibly easy to do.  Given his current offensive production, he can do that now just as a hitter, not even factoring in his pitching.

With Ohtani gone now, and given the declarations of the FO that they intend to compete and not rebuild - what moves do you make from here to cobble together a decent team?

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/angels 

Looking at the above, if you assume Arte will spend close to the threshold (no guarantees of that), that would mean we have ~65mil or so to spend in AAV this offseason, which is more than enough to secure a top SP, a top reliever, and some hitters to help mitigate the loss of Ohtani.

12 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

Supposedly, it 2m per season and the other 680m is deferred.  Which works out to about 52m per as far as the CBT is calculated.  

Is your friend 100% certain on this?  While I don't doubt this is something the Dodgers would try to do, that contract seems so egregious that it's almost tempting the MLB office to nix the deal, although the chances of that happening are zero.

In the end, it is still 700 million, and 52mil AAV would still shatter all sorts of records anyway.  Just somewhat mind-boggling to see an arrangement that skewed in deferments.

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

If you are concerned about losing Ohtani, research how many pitchers recover from a second TJ surgery.

Then ask yourself, would I pay anywhere nears $700 million with that factored in?

For teams, they are likely looking if they can profit from a player's worth, not from their play on the field necessarily.

Will the Dodgers get $700 million of worth from him as a player?  Seems incredibly unlikely, but I'm sure they'll rake in tons of profit from him from a marketing perspective, likely far more than that $700 million, thus making him a worthwhile "investment," so to speak.

2 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Of Ohtani's 6 seasons with the Angels, how many have been worth $70 million?

Beyond the scope of my knowledge, but given that the Dodgers are run by a corporation (not an individual), I am guessing their finance and marketing team have determined that they can market Shohei and outearn the 70 mil per year salary.  Teams run by corporations typically don't make emotional decisions, but rather financially-backed ones.

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I can believe that they'll get around the luxury tax, but they still owe him an average of $70M a year, so that's what the contract is.

Well, yes, but if I paid you 10,000 30 years from now .. that 10,000 will have considerably less buying power than it would if I gave you that money now.  So you are correct in that it's a 70M average, but if most of that is paid 50 years from now, it is obviously worth considerably less than having that 70M today.

3 minutes ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Wait wait wait.  Are ya'll telling me that MLB hasn't closed the Ilya Kovalchuk loophole?  That somehow Ohtani's cap hit will be something like $25m?  There's no way.  They have to have learned from the NHL and the Kovalchuk contract and put that into the luxury tax calculations.

Luxury tax hit has to be $70m a year, regardless of deferrals.  Right?

Nope.  The AAV will be considerably less if most of his contract is deferred.  I am 100% certain on this.  And that is what most reporters are referencing when they are saying there are contract deferrals with the intent to lesson the luxury tax burden.

1 minute ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

If that's true Im going to lose my shit.

Absolutely no way should a team be able to give a dude a $700 mil contract and defer their luxury tax hit til fucking 2040 or whatever. Teams will be doing this with every deal after this.

I suspect this will be an issue in future labor contracts, if the Dodgers give him a 10 year, 700 million contract that ends up being like a 25mil AAV deal because he's being mainly paid in like the year 2080.

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

I remember folks disagreeing with me when I said he'd get at least $50M/year, and $500M+. So you're probably not going to get shit for this.

For $70M/year, I consider this a bullet dodged.

The details will come out eventually, but it seems like it will essentially be considerably less than 70 mil/yr, if "most" of his salary is being deferred.

Obviously Arte was never going to remotely approach this figure.

1 minute ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

It will be $70m annually no matter what, unless the Dogs tried to do some trickster shit to get around the rules.

1 minute ago, angelsnationtalk said:

What does this mean for AAV? 

It means that the AAV will be lower than 70mil AAV.  

I remember thinking that 500 million would be likely, but didn't really think he'd pass 600 million.  But 700 million?  Wow.

I think one of the hardest skills for someone to learn is plate discipline and correct identifying "your pitch" to hit.  Obviously his BB/K rates in college are amazing, and that trend has held serve so far in his very short minor league stay.

Again, if anything else, it's fun to see a youth movement.  Neto looked very solid prior to his injury issues.  Moniak has cooled off considerably but still looks like a very useful role player (strong side of a platoon).  O'Hoppe looked solid in his time here.  Silseth has had his struggles but has made significant progress and looks very good now.

It takes time to build a winning organization, but Perry does seem to be rather good at helping facilitate player development.

2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

LF Rengifo (26)

DH Ohtani (29)

CF Trout (32)

1B Schanuel (21)

2B Drury (30)

3B Moustakas (34), Rendon (33)

C O'Hoppe (23)

RF Moniak (25), Adell (24)

SS Neto (22)

 

SP Ohtani (29)

SP Sandoval (26)

SP Detmers (24)

SP Canning (27)

SP Silseth (23)

RP Bachman (23)

RP Joyce (22)

 

And people think they should tear it down and “rebuild”?

How about keeping the gang together and sign Ohtani AND another impact player and watch this group for a few years?

Right.  Many are disappointed that they couldn't field a playoff team this year, but this team IS significantly better than it was just a year ago.  Perry is doing a fairly solid job, all things considered, in infusing youth that seems to be playing fairly well.  

IF they can re-sign Ohtani, which is obviously the great big unknown, there is a solid foundation here to make this into a contending team.  I appreciate Perry's style in free agency where he seeks value and aims for players in the Estevez/Drury/Anderson tier.  Not every signing will be successful, but I'd say Perry has had more hits than misses overall, and he seems to be fairly good at building a farm system.

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well I think that's the point about Moreno's philosophy: it is working towards his main goal, which is making money. In that way, the Angels aren't any different than half the team owners in MLB, for whom winning is just a secondary perk to profit. 

This is sad but likely true.  Moreno has made tons and tons of money owning this team.  I am sure he'd like to win, but his #1 priority is having marketable names on the team and furthering profit.  Trading Ohtani would have gone against the marketing part.  I am guessing Moreno will indeed make a spirited attempt to re-sign Ohtani, but if Ohtani's #1 goal is to win beyond all else and not just going with the top offer, it would be hard to imagine him staying here at this point.  Hate to say that, but it goes without saying there are other large market teams who have a much more consistent track record of making the playoffs that will likely offer something similar to whatever we will offer Ohtani.

3 hours ago, AngelsFaninGA said:

The only prospect of any consequence that they gave up was Quero, and if they can't win with Trout and Ohtai then they definitely won't win with guys like Neto and Quero. That said, it's pretty funny to watch them be major buyers at the deadline and then immediately collapse in typical Angels fashion. 

Well, the outcomes were somewhat predictable.  They mounted a spirited charge beating up on a struggling Yankees team without Judge, the Pirates, and the Tigers.  They then faced really good teams on the road (Blue Jays, Braves), and the outcome is what you would expect when you face really good teams on the road - you drop the series.  Obviously the last two games against the Mariners are disappointing.

But basically, given the Angels were not THAT close to the teams they were chasing, they had to go on a spirited run.  They were hoping to do that in the context of their schedule getting significantly harder.  Obviously it has not panned out well.  It is not over, but they basically have to play perfect baseball for the remaining part of the season, and probably sweep the remaining 6 games against the Rangers to give themselves any kind of shot.

11 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think one genuine ray of hope the angels have in terms of retaining him is that the Dodgers have shown an aversion to really long stupid contracts.  Ohtani is going to get a really long and stupid contract.  Arte will probably do that.  The Guggenheim might also but they also might not.  
 

ohtani’s contract is going to be unprecedented with no real comp to work with.  It’s an extremely risky and obviously expensive proposition. 

It is possible.  The Dodgers seem to be very selective about who they want to give a long-term contract out to.  They have done so for Betts and, to a smaller degree, Freddie Freeman, and both have held up well thus far.  

Nobody can know what they will do.  I think the only two true threats are probably the Dodgers and Giants, because both have payroll space, are on the west coast, and are either established winners (Dodgers) or have a recent history of overperforming (Giants).  Obviously the fact that the Dodgers have largely avoided long-term contracts could be also that they want to keep the books clear for a shot at Ohtani, which they will have this offseason.  They are very calculated and risk averse when it comes to long-term deals, but I am guessing they might deviate with that for the sport's greatest star, and a once-in-a-lifetime type of player like Ohtani.

I do hope the fact that Arte played Ohtani right away (instead of optioning him to "service time" him), the fact that this team DOES appear to be improving organizationally, and the fact that (maybe?) Arte will routinely commit to spend a bit more to help fill out the roster and help the team win, that Ohtani might ultimately end up staying here.

I am very much against long-term deals for most players, but Ohtani is one I'd definitely offer one too and hope he stays, even though it will probably require a 12/500 type of contract to do so.

12 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Would seem to slot with Loup and Soriano as a bridge to Lopez, Moore, and Estevez?

Once Canning is activated, Silseth gives them another potentially strong set up guy.

Bullpen looks pretty deep then?

I would probably keep Silseth stretched out as a SP.  He seems to have turned a corner and is pitching well.  Maybe as we roll into September, we can transition him more to relief, but I think you need to have someone stretched out and capable of making starts in case of injury.