Hubs

We probably gave up a minor leaguer as well as Rengifo. And we could’ve got more back.

If you’re upset at Rengifo for Pederson you’re fucking nuts. I bet Kiki Hernandez or Max Muncy or Chris Taylor went to Boston.

I was gonna post asking for recommendations myself. I'm not doing Boston, but am gonna do the Philly / NY back to Back in July after the All-Star Break.

So obviously I think Ohtani and Teheran are low. But a #2, two borderline 2/3's, a 3, and a two 5's is not a terrible rotation, it's just not a great one either.

And even using the projections above, the 4.46 ERA from the starters over 929 IP is only around 460 ER. Add 530 IP at a 4 ERA and you've added 235 runs, meaning the team is projected to be around 695 ER, and maybe 750 total runs. If they score the same 850, that's still a 91 win expectation. And the Angels can score more. Last year, with a month less of Trout, no Rendon, no Adell, down years from our 1B, Upton, and Simmons, and the pathetic offensive showing at Catcher....they scored 769 runs. They were averaging 5+ runs a game through July, but dropped to 4.7 in August, and a dismal 3.28 in September. 5 runs a game is 810, 5.5 is 891 and 6 is 972.

This is just over 5 2/3 IP per start on the average. I know that Ausmus had a quick hook, but I look for our starters to really go deeper into games, especially if they go with a true 6 man rotation. At 6 1/3 IP per start average, you'd get 100 more innings from the starters. Assuming that Teheran, Bundy, and Heaney all get at least 27 starts, they all look good as far as innings go. If they get 30, then the innings go up to 180-190. Lets call all three 180 inning starters, and say they average 29 starts. Canning getting 135 innings is 5 inning average in 27 starts. If you bump that to 6, its 162 innings. Lets round down to 144 over 24 starts. Ohtani at 110 innings is 5 inning average in 22 starts. I think he pitches more innings per starts, but 22-24 is likely at 6 1/3 it's 140-150 innings. Lets say 140 over 22 starts. That's 830 innings out of the top 5 starters, over 133 starts. Sandoval getting 10-12 starts wouldn't surprise me, but lets say he goes 12 at 6.1 per that's 66 or 76 innings, so a slight uptick. I think Andriese may surprise, but if he only starts 10-12 as well, lets give him slightly less at 5 2/3 per start, for say 57 to 68 innings. They didn't put Pena in here, and he's likely to get starts. Say 8-10 starts at the minimum, or around 48 innings. I think Barria, Suarez and Peters maybe get 1-2 starts each. Basically non-factors. The next 6 guys in the rotation then start around 27-30 games total, at 180 innings, and they break 1000 innings from the starting staff. That is a 6.17 average at 1000, so slightly less than 6 1/3. At a slightly lower team ERA, led mainly by Teheran being 1.5 runs lower, Bundy being closer to 4, Canning being closer to 4, and Ohtani being closer to 3, I figure the team ERA will be closer to 4.2. Teheran at 3.8 ERA over 31 starts and 186 IP would be at 79 runs. Bundy at a 4.1 ERA over 29 starts would be 183.2 IP , would be at 84 runs. Heaney at 170.1 IP with a 4.01 ERA would be 76 runs. Canning at 144 IP and a 4.00 ERA is 65 runs or so. Ohtani being closer to a 3.2 ERA (or lower) over 140 innings, would be around 48-50 runs. This totals out at 824 IP and say 353 runs. Sandoval at his numbers above would be fine, but I'm bumping up Andriese and adding Pena to the group, all around the same Sandoval ERA and IP. That means each of these guys giving up around 32 runs in 66 IP on average. So 96 runs over 198 IP for the back end three. Add the 96 to the 353 and the 198 to the 824 and you end up at 449 over 1022 IP and the starting staff ERA is around 3.95. I think that's a tad optimistic, but add 7% to the above across the board and you're at that 4.2 ish ERA number. That would increase the runs to 480 from the starting staff. At 1022 IP from the starters, the pen would only have to pick up around 430 IP. This would be the fewest they've pitched in several seasons. Even if you decrease the number of IP from the starters by 7% you're down to 950 IP, which at that original 449 actually comes out similarly to increasing the runs. So the Pen pitching to their standard 3.85-3.95 ERA over 430-500 IP means that the pen gives up between 184 and 219 ER. This leads the team as a total to allow around 664-668 earned runs. Team ERA would sit at the 4.1 range. Add that to the unearned runs, which is usually low (like 6-9% more) and you end up in the low 700-720 runs range. That's less than 4 1/2 runs per game, which is better than league average. Seeing as I have them near the top offensively, around 850 runs scored, That will lead to a 94 win team.

Teheran will be better, Bundy will be better, Heaney is right on. Canning will be better, Ohtani will be better. Sandoval I think gets more innings. Andriese gets more innings. Julio Teheran 179.0 7.8 3.8 1.8 .301 70.5 % 5.30 5.47 0.5 Dylan Bundy 178.0 9.0 2.7 1.6 .301 72.3 % 4.47 4.55 2.2 Andrew Heaney 168.0 9.8 2.5 1.5 .300 74.2 % 4.01 4.15 2.8 Griffin Canning 135.0 9.2 3.0 1.5 .305 72.5 % 4.36 4.43 1.7 Shohei Ohtani 110.0 11.0 3.5 1.2 .304 74.9 % 3.74 3.81 2.2 Patrick Sandoval 66.0 8.5 3.9 1.4 .301 73.3 % 4.37 4.67 0.6 Jose Suarez 47.0 8.2 3.7 1.6 .299 72.3 % 4.77 5.07 0.4 Jaime Barria 19.0 8.1 2.5 1.9 .298 72.1 % 4.87 5.07 0.1 Matt Andriese 19.0 8.3 2.8 1.4 .304 72.5 % 4.29 4.42 0.3 Dillon Peters 9.0 7.1 3.0 1.5 .303 71.9 % 4.68 4.97 0.1 Total 929.0 9.1 3.1 1.5 .302 72.6 % 4.46 4.60 10.9

I agree with the Bundy pick. My picks to break out: 1) Adell (I see Juan Soto Lite in his first year) 2) Bundy (117-12 ERA+) 3) Thaiss (I see him being the solution at 1st. Starting in May) I also see Canning getting it together, but maybe not "Breaking Out"

Who is the Angels breakout player for 2020? I think we were all surprised by Tommy La Stella and Brian Goodwin last year, who does it in 2020?

I think they were definitely cheating on the road, using the replay camera and buzzers or hand signals.

It also does away with the opener.

Eddie is a friend of my family, he still looks like he could hit a 90 mph fastball out of the park. Even at 63 years old.

Our live video on TV is on delay. The replay video is not. "Unlike in the NFL, plays will not be reviewed by the on-field umpires, but instead by a replay official at the Replay Command Center located in New York. MLB umpires fill the role of replay official at the command center and will have access to video from cameras all over the park, regardless of whether the video was shown live. Major League Umpires will be staffed as Replay Officials at the Replay Command Center, located at MLB Advanced Media headquarters, for all Major League games. The Replay Command Center will have direct access to video from most cameras in the ballpark in real-time, regardless of whether they are shown on the live broadcast. The decision will then be relayed to the crew chief via a hard-wired headset that connects the stadium to the command center in New York. On-field umpires will not actually be shown any video or even leave the field for that matter, according to Matt Snyder of CBS Sports. They will simply be told the decision via headset." "To determine whether to challenge a play, personnel in the dugout will be permitted to communicate with a video specialist in the Clubhouse who has access to the same video that is available to Replay Officials." From https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1926113-must-know-facts-of-the-new-mlb-replay-system

I was always a trade Marsh over trading Adell guy, but it appears the Angels don't really want to trade either guy, or even Matt Thaiss. Rengifo isn't going to bring back a big arm, and Adams value will be higher in the summer than now, while I think they may still try to get a starter, they really like these guys so I doubt they move them. The WIlson/Cozart trade was all about making room in the budget for Rendon and a top arm, but no one signed, so now we look at the options, decide they are too expensive in terms of future cost, (prospects), and try to win with what they have.

Technically the start of 2023 is three seasons away, it's only three years away from right now. Still, point taken. Stassi at C is disturbing. But they can always throw money at JT Realmuto or in two seasons Willson Contreras. They could always draft a college catcher and hope he's ready by 2023. I was never impressed with Thaiss, but as he has developed, and added to his defense, playing third, that makes him a valuable bench piece now, even if his future is at 1st, once Pujols retires after two more years. Is he really only going into his age 25 season in 2020? Jackson at SS is interesting. Does he stay at Burlington all this year or finish at High A? And only 19 in 2020? Is it perhaps more likely the middle infield duo above is flipped for defensive purposes? Fletcher at SS and Jackson at 2nd? Rodriguez as the #3 starter is interesting, but I doubt the entire rotation is all Angels home grown guys. Still, I didn't realize Sandoval was only 23. If this is indeed the future, you'd likely be carrying a payroll of around $5+5+10+35+min+min+36+3+25+12+min+4+min+min = $135-150 give or take, which leaves room for a higher profile pitching acquisition or two.

Jeter, Walker, Bonds, Kent, Clemens. Jeter because he was above average for 20 years. Maybe not ever the best SS of his era, but the longevity means something. Walker deserves to be the Rockies first HOF. He was consistently all-star level for a decade plus. Bonds is the best hitter I've ever seen before he took HGH, still a HOF. Kent was also MVP level for a few years while being above average the rest of the time at a position not known really for offense. Clemens won multiple Cy Youngs, and likely wasn't on roids his entire career. Schilling doesn't quite make it for me. He wasn't quite there in his early years, and his later years were great...but his stupid fake bloody sock and Nazi obsession and I think it's a bad look. Oh and of course, Pete Rose. Did he bet on baseball, yes. Is he a giant baby about the whole thing? Yes. Is he still one of the best hitters of all time? Yes.

I think he'll hit his first season in the .330's legitimate MVP caliber protection behind and an OBP machine in front of him plus Ohtani and Upton and Adell? Its a great time for offense for the Angels. Will say his OBP won't be in the .460 range, but .450 sounds right. Walks will be right at 100.

They could've had a video in the stands, but I bet they were just tapping into the live TV feed on a laptop (or from the replay room) and relaying the signals using buzzer bandaids.

It's why I think the Angels won't trade for him. It's an expensive trade for a guy who while healthy was dominant. The Angels need health.

I could see this for the Angels if a) it didn't include Adell, b) they Took Upton back in the deal. The add would be 27+32 for 2020, minus 21 = 38. It would drop the Red Sox Payroll under the limit. It would put the Angels over the luxury tax at like $224. It doesn't really make sense though, as the Red Sox would have a terrible defensive outfield, and would likely want to move Upton. It makes more sense for the Dodgers.

I’m actually good with making the managers decide on whether to challenge a call blind. They shouldn’t get to challenge it after the team video guy looks at it on video. In the NFL they throw the flag before. Do it that way

Yeah, they have video replay set up for the visitors too, so maybe they weren’t hiding a camera in the stands they were still doing similar things. No trash can but maybe this is why they switched to buzzers?

Can someone, (who went to Hofstra) explain why Hofstra keeps getting referenced, I get the joke, but I also don't know where it started. As far as Adreise for basically Madero (DFA) and Beasley, kind of think he's JC Ramirez's replacement. I still expect the Angels to try to acquire a starter of the caliber we were discussing, but in that case, he ends up out of the pen. Good Add. Gotta keep the HR down.

I am a 3 on this weird inverted scale of unhappiness. It's fundamentally backwards, because people associate 10 with good and 1 with bad on nearly every 1-10 scale. It's like saying, how hot is that girl, 1 being smoking hot and 10 being a troll...It doesn't work. Anyway, would I like a better ace pitcher, yes, but the one I wanted is the one they didn't keep last offseason, and that's Garrett Richards. Yes I wanted Gerrit Cole too, but Cole signed for more money and years than I was comfortable with and my second choice wanted to be with his horses in Arizona. But I like Teheran and Bundy, I'm excited to see Ohtani pitch again, and I love the Rendon signing. Can't wait to see Adell and hopefully Marsh. Too many posters are treating last year as if it's the baseline, when it was a year marred by tragedy and also injury...with a new manager who sucked and a terrible record down the stretch (18-41 from the high point in late July). I honestly believe that the 2019 team as constructed was an 82-85 win team, with no Skaggs tragedy and a better manager. If they kept Scioscia for year 20, and said, ok lets go for it for one more year.. this team would've been better. Take that and add in the changes they've made and I'm fairly happy. I'm not ecstatic, like a 10...I mean 1 on the scale...

I honestly was surprised when they evened out the leagues, because the AL West already did a lot of travel vs. the NL West. The Dodgers longest in division flight was the 2 hr 15 min to Denver, versus the Angels two three hour flights to Seattle and also to Dallas. I never agreed with the move from the AL to the NL for the Brewers, as it's not like there weren't rivalries in the newer AL Central. The whole way expansion was handled in the 1990's was weird. Three new NL teams? One in the AL in Tampa? Go from 12 NL teams in 1992 to 16 in 1998? Both Colorado and Arizona should've been considered for the AL. They can fix this if they expand to 32, 16 in each league, 4 teams per division. AL West: Angels, Mariners, A's, Portland Expansion (or D'Backs). AL Central: Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Twins AL South: Rangers, Astros, Royals, Rockies AL East: Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Padres, D'Backs (or Portland Expansion) NL Central: Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Reds NL South: Braves, Marlins, Nationals*, Nashville or Tampa Rays (Unless they move to Montreal, then it would be an Expansion) NL East: Pirates, Mets, Phillies, Montreal Expansion (or Rays) New expansion is Montreal, Portland, and Nashville, with the Rays moving to one of these cities and the other two getting the expansion clubs. Charleston or a Carolina city or even a Virginia city can also be considered in lieu of one of the two east coast, and I suppose Vegas and Salt Lake can be considered instead of Portland.