KevinJ14

Dustin Moseley

Hey so some of you who know me on social media know that my grandfather passed in May of last year. He and I really bonded over Angels baseball in the past 25 years as we always went to one game at least when I was a kid when we’d go to his rental beach house in Newport Beach every summer. In recent years we’d always watch  games together and we watched game 7 together in 2002 spontaneously (he drove up to LA from Palm Springs for the game) because we wanted to celebrate together when they won.
His name was William “Bill” Wilson. 
So I have a new favorite prospect. 
(I also Attached a photo of him and my grandmother with CJ’s dad. I’d gotten them Wilson jerseys and he spotted hem when they were in the crowd. Not a lot of Wilson jerseys in the crowd in 2014.)

I meant to post this before Goodwin crossed the threshold last night, but going into yesterday's game, we had the opportunity to review Goodwin's production within two nearly identical timeframes. 
This is not meant to be a downer post - but does offer a lot of things to consider.

First is Goodwin with KCR 2018, second is Goodwin with LAA 2019:
27 games, 101 plate appearances, 25 hits, 5 doubles, 0 triples, 3 HR, 6 walks, 31 strikeouts. 
28 games, 100 plate appearances, 27 hits, 5 doubles, 1 triples, 4 HR, 13 walks, 23 strikeouts.

The difference here is only 2 hits, 1 triple, 1 HR, and 7 walks (and 8 fewer strikeouts) - nothing too dramatic. 

Yet the difference in the slash is tremendous:
KCR 2017: .266/.317/.415/.732
LAA 2018: .321/.414/.548/.962

Goodwin's BAbip:
KCR 2017: .367
LAA 2018: .397

Takeaways...
This is a prime example of how it is far too early to read into numbers...Goodwin's slash is 230 points higher - yet he has only 4 more hits and 7 more walks.  His BAbip is sky-high this year - and admittedly was higher last year with KCR than I expected - but is definitely high enough to account for 4 of those hits dropping in.  Goodwin has more than doubled his BB% (6% to 12.5%) and dropped strikeouts nearly 10% (31% to 23%) which is definitely encouraging - as is a career high in line drive percentage (38%, career prior was 28%) Again - it's still too early to read into stats much. One game and a handful of hits can skew the data considerably. But - @AngelsLakersFan mentioned he liked using last 200 PA of consecutive consistent playing time as an example - looking deeper, I agree that it is a good way to measure Goodwin here. 
Goodwin's Kansas City and Anaheim sets of data and their trends are actually much closer related than first glance - and are notably different from his Washington data. 

Goodwin's 205 plate appearances in the AL - consistent, consecutive, in a new league, reflecting the changes in his trends, produces:
.302/.373/.484/.856 - on pace for 32 doubles, 3 triples, 22 homers, 60 walks, and 175 strikeouts over 650 PA

But, there's still one red flag - that's still with a .382 BAbip - far above the 'average' of .300.
His BAbip with Washington was .304 - which resulted in a .246 BA there. 
Worth noting - it isn't atypical for players to put up above-average BAbip during their peak, say around .335, especially players with Goodwin's speed.
Turns out, Goodwin's career BAbip is now at .335

Ultimately - I think Goodwin is actually much closer to his current career line than anything we're picking from certain periods.
That line - .265/.334/.470/.805 over 606 plate appearances, capable of putting up 30-35 doubles, 20-25 homers, 50-60 walks, 150-175 strikeouts. 

Those counting stat trends also do not differ greatly from any of the other slices taken above...

Verdict? 
Goodwin is going to be a solid player when all is said and done. He's not as good as we're seeing, but he's better than his past has indicated, possibly even with the inflation it's seen with his run in Anaheim.
All of the data - Washington, KCR/LAA, or as a whole, tends to account for his growth and his inflated BAbip, and all sets of data still trend towards a similar range in counting stats.

We might get Goodwin's career year this year, and it really couldn't come at a better time.  
 

The guy was the last player in the stadium to leave after the game after taking pictures and signing autographs with fans after the game on the 25th. 

The guy was the last player in the stadium to leave after the game after taking pictures and signing autographs with fans after the game on the 25th. 

The guy was the last player in the stadium to leave after the game after taking pictures and signing autographs with fans after the game on the 25th. 

I have been lectured by Billy Eppler multiple times to stop looking at ERA.
if you guys want a front office that is analytically inclined, they are going to do things that fly in the face of your dad’s baseball stats. 
Get used to it. 
It doesn’t always work but I would say they’ve probably overachieved more than underachieved when you consider the injuries and who has actually been on the field. 
They won 80 games each of the last 2 years, instead of 70, because of guys like Bridwell, JC Ramírez, Felix Peña, David Hernandez, Yusmiero Petit, Blake Parker and Bud Norris.
The next step is growing some above average nucleus pieces of their own (Adell, Canning, Suarez, Marsh, etc) so they have the money to get legit FA’s around them (Cole instead of Cahill, Rendon instead of Cozart) and can still use their smarts to fill in the gaps. 
That is their plan.

It's not that complicated. They are trying to be as good as they can be without sacrificing the long term. That means if they're going to trade players, they will not be very good prospects. If they are going to sign free agents, they will be on the younger end, or to low-risk short-term deals. The idea is that neither free agency nor trades are how you get good. The only way you get a solid core is building it from within. Once you've done that, you can put the finishing touches on it by signing free agents and by trading your surplus prospects.
The fact that Eppler said "get to the top five" shouldn't be taken so literally. There's no official objective ranking of farm systems. This time next year they could be 5-8ish.
They also could still be a playoff team in 2019 with just a few breaks going their way. They won 80 games last year. The three teams between them and a playoff spot were the A's, Mariners and Rays, who each have issues themselves.
The Astros also lost Morton. They may lose Keuchel. They are going to lose Marwin Gonzalez (from what I hear). Verlander is going to get a year older. They don't have a frontline catcher. They're certainly the division favorites but I wouldn't pencil them in for 100 wins as of now. Teams go from 100 to 90 all the time. Look at the Cubs from 16-17 and Dodgers from 17-18.
As for Trout, all I can tell is you is my opinion is based on talking to Trout and Angels management. Nobody says flat out that he's going to re-sign, but my sense is that Trout is happy and appreciates how the Angels treat him, and also that he would not be happy playing someplace like New York or Boston. I also believe the Angels will pay him whatever it takes, so it's just a matter of him deciding he wants to be there. Also, the same guy who talked Ohtani into picking the Angels is going to be the one talking to Trout.

He was a man who always had fun no matter the circumstance. A guy players loved in the locker room. I remember one of the players mentioning that you couldn't ever tell if Valbuena went 0-3 or 3-3 in a game. He was always happy.
and check out his last 2 retweets:

They kept Ji-Man Choi over him...

Yes.
This is a handy page that is mostly accurate (a few mistakes)
https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-los-angeles-angels/
Meyer, Middleton, Ramirez, Jewell, Cozart, Shoemaker are all on the 60 now and need to be added. 
Suarez, Rengifo, Walsh, Peña need to be added. Maybe Hofacket too. 
Thats 10.
Current guys coming off as FA’s are Johnson, Rivera, Young.
To get the other 7 (plus any more for players you want to add in the winter), you’re DFA’ing guys. They can do that without too much trouble, but better be careful before you do any more.
Also, they normally make a trade or a waiver claim in early October of someone else’s 40-man surplus. That’s how they got Peña and Blake Parker.

Tonight's walk off had me curious - how often does a player fall apart in the first half of the season and truly excel in the back half?  To FanGraphs I went, hoping that their split leaderboard would make the exercise easy.  It didn't.  Can't query first and second half splits over multiple seasons.  Long story short, I'd wanted to do this going back at least 30 years, but had to do first and second half splits by year one at a time, so this only goes back 10 years.  Still interesting.  Methodology:
Had to have 200 PA in first half at a 650 or worse OPS, back half at 800 or better OPS with 200 PA or more (25 for 2018 - we have a long way to go this year) Only 14 full seasons qualify in last 10 years. Interestingly, Kinsler actually leads the pace over last 10 years.  Why is this about Calhoun, then?  Because for him, it started before the All Star Break, the FG splits just don't make looking at it that easy. Calhoun has 79 July PA with a 1.083 OPS.  Kinsler's full 72 July PA are at just an 816 OPS.  Much better!  Big news?  Not yet. If either comes even close to keeping this up, they'll destroy Dan Uggla's 2011 rebound that was a 326 point swing, as both are north of 500 point swings currently.   So, on to the leaderboard, sorted by 2nd half OPS minus 1st half OPS, for last 10 seasons.   By no means do I expect either Calhoun or Kinsler to keep this up.  I do, however, want to give credit where credit is due and root them on in the pursuit of the greatest 2nd half turnarounds in the last decade.  
1st = 1st half of season, 2nd = 2nd half of season.  Keep in mind that Kole has kept this up for 79 PA now, not just the 27 shown here.  
Name Year 1st PA 1st OPS 2nd PA 2nd OPS OPS Var Ian Kinsler 2018 354 0.647 25 1.429 0.782 Kole Calhoun 2018 279 0.556 27 1.103 0.547 Dan Uggla 2011 374 0.622 298 0.948 0.326 Byron Buxton 2017 283 0.594 228 0.893 0.299 Asdrubal Cabrera 2015 325 0.627 226 0.916 0.289 Dustin Ackley 2013 219 0.522 208 0.809 0.287 Carlos Gonzalez 2017 298 0.637 236 0.921 0.284 Jorge Polanco 2017 287 0.596 257 0.870 0.274 Coco Crisp 2012 247 0.617 261 0.860 0.243 Omar Infante 2011 386 0.602 254 0.841 0.239 Ender Inciarte 2016 254 0.600 324 0.836 0.236 Cliff Pennington 2011 324 0.591 246 0.814 0.223 Gregor Blanco 2014 223 0.600 221 0.814 0.214 Aramis Ramirez 2010 261 0.648 246 0.847 0.199 Jonathan Lucroy 2015 212 0.632 203 0.808 0.176 Adam Lind 2010 351 0.641 262 0.807 0.166

UZR counts all plays as pass-fail: compared to an average MLB player, did you or did you not make a play in a certain spot on the field?
DRS does that, but also includes the number of bases you saved or cost your team by making or not making the play, and that is converted into runs. 
If you’re comparing apples to apples (OF to OF, SS to SS) either works just as well.
UZR is probably better for comparing raw defensive skill. DRS is better for comparing impact on winning games. 
Another thing for OFs: HR robberies really skew the DRS. That’s why Trout’s numbers were so high in 2012. He had 4, I think. In other years he had maybe 1 a year. That’s more a factor of opportunity than skill. (Also of the fence height in your home ballpark.)
Also, neither of them take positioning into account. If you start a play shaded way deep and in the gap and a ball comes straight to you, you get a lot of credit for your “range” even though you didn’t move. That’s the main reason all these defensive metrics are of limited use. 

Maitan has a HR tonight...but also left after a force out.
Rengifo in his AAA debut so far: 1-4 3 RBI

Maitan has a HR tonight...but also left after a force out.
Rengifo in his AAA debut so far: 1-4 3 RBI

I think it looks amazing.
The fact that Dee Gordon made a play with his backwards hat is awesome.
https://www.mlb.com/gameday/royals-vs-mariners/2018/06/30/530645#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=530645

@Dochalo @Tank @nate @yk9001 @zenmaster @hangin n wangin @Taylor @Angel Oracle @bloodbrother @Lou @True Grich @Jobu @tdawg87 
My bad I thought it included what I typed. I meant to say that that is actually Valbuena's family, not just his fans.

@Dochalo @Tank @nate @yk9001 @zenmaster @hangin n wangin @Taylor @Angel Oracle @bloodbrother @Lou @True Grich @Jobu @tdawg87 
My bad I thought it included what I typed. I meant to say that that is actually Valbuena's family, not just his fans.

@Dochalo @Tank @nate @yk9001 @zenmaster @hangin n wangin @Taylor @Angel Oracle @bloodbrother @Lou @True Grich @Jobu @tdawg87 
My bad I thought it included what I typed. I meant to say that that is actually Valbuena's family, not just his fans.

Simmons literally signed a kids shirt just moments before he slipped down the steps. 
What's up with people slipping at the stadium these days?
Just yesterday, a CSC person split his head open after falling down stairs too

Those people are actually Valbuena's family members, not just fans.