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Kole Calhoun - Historic 1st/2nd Half Split?


101halo

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8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Nice job.  Thanks for the hard work.  

I've always thought it rather dumb that the ASB marks the midpoint of the season.  Not sure why they don't just use 81 games.  

Thanks, means a lot coming from someone that does a lot more of it here than I do. Completely agree on the weird ASB split. Would've preferred to do by month or first 250-300 PA vs ROS, but would've taken more than the 20 minutes I put into this, which cuts into valuable Friday drinking in front of the TV time. 

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Just now, 101halo said:

Thanks, means a lot coming from someone that does a lot more of it here than I do. Completely agree on the weird ASB split. Would've preferred to do my month or first 250-300 PA vs ROS, but would've taken more than the 20 minutes I put into this, which cuts into valuable Friday drinking in front of the TV time. 

I've got the TV above my desk with the mini fridge around the corner.  

the crazy thing is that if you split from when kole went on the DL his turn around is even more impressive.  

dude was rockin' a .374 ops on 5/31.  It would be a miracle for him to get above .700 for the season.  But more importantly, if this is real going forward, it make all of us feel good about 2019.  

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11 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I've got the TV above my desk with the mini fridge around the corner.  

the crazy thing is that if you split from when kole went on the DL his turn around is even more impressive.  

dude was rockin' a .374 ops on 5/31.  It would be a miracle for him to get above .700 for the season.  But more importantly, if this is real going forward, it make all of us feel good about 2019.  

If he has another good game tomorrow, he could cross back into positive WAR territory. I certainly wouldn't have expected that going into August back in early to mid-June. Hell, he keeps up 80% of this he could end up 2+ by end of season, which would be an outright miracle. 

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46 minutes ago, 101halo said:

Tonight's walk off had me curious - how often does a player fall apart in the first half of the season and truly excel in the back half?  To FanGraphs I went, hoping that their split leaderboard would make the exercise easy.  It didn't.  Can't query first and second half splits over multiple seasons.  Long story short, I'd wanted to do this going back at least 30 years, but had to do first and second half splits by year one at a time, so this only goes back 10 years.  Still interesting.  Methodology:

  • Had to have 200 PA in first half at a 650 or worse OPS, back half at 800 or better OPS with 200 PA or more (25 for 2018 - we have a long way to go this year)
  • Only 14 full seasons qualify in last 10 years.
  • Interestingly, Kinsler actually leads the pace over last 10 years.  Why is this about Calhoun, then?  Because for him, it started before the All Star Break, the FG splits just don't make looking at it that easy. Calhoun has 79 July PA with a 1.083 OPS.  Kinsler's full 72 July PA are at just an 816 OPS.  Much better!  Big news?  Not yet.
  • If either comes even close to keeping this up, they'll destroy Dan Uggla's 2011 rebound that was a 326 point swing, as both are north of 500 point swings currently.  

So, on to the leaderboard, sorted by 2nd half OPS minus 1st half OPS, for last 10 seasons.   By no means do I expect either Calhoun or Kinsler to keep this up.  I do, however, want to give credit where credit is due and root them on in the pursuit of the greatest 2nd half turnarounds in the last decade.  

1st = 1st half of season, 2nd = 2nd half of season.  Keep in mind that Kole has kept this up for 79 PA now, not just the 27 shown here.  

Name Year 1st PA 1st OPS 2nd PA 2nd OPS OPS Var
Ian Kinsler 2018 354 0.647 25 1.429 0.782
Kole Calhoun 2018 279 0.556 27 1.103 0.547
Dan Uggla 2011 374 0.622 298 0.948 0.326
Byron Buxton 2017 283 0.594 228 0.893 0.299
Asdrubal Cabrera 2015 325 0.627 226 0.916 0.289
Dustin Ackley 2013 219 0.522 208 0.809 0.287
Carlos Gonzalez 2017 298 0.637 236 0.921 0.284
Jorge Polanco 2017 287 0.596 257 0.870 0.274
Coco Crisp 2012 247 0.617 261 0.860 0.243
Omar Infante 2011 386 0.602 254 0.841 0.239
Ender Inciarte 2016 254 0.600 324 0.836 0.236
Cliff Pennington 2011 324 0.591 246 0.814 0.223
Gregor Blanco 2014 223 0.600 221 0.814 0.214
Aramis Ramirez 2010 261 0.648 246 0.847 0.199
Jonathan Lucroy 2015 212 0.632 203 0.808 0.176
Adam Lind 2010 351 0.641 262 0.807 0.166

One would think that Tim Salmon with his slow starts would be the poster boy for this.

Thanks for the stats, this is great stuff!

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3 minutes ago, Dick B Back said:

One would think that Tim Salmon with his slow starts would be the poster boy for this.

Thanks for the stats, this is great stuff!

Appreciate it. 

Strangely enough, it was really just Mar/Apr for Timmy, his worst month(s) at 764 OPS. May was his best at 906, and overall he was 14 points better pre ASB than post. Wouldn't have guessed that myself, either. 

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4 hours ago, 101halo said:

Tonight's walk off had me curious - how often does a player fall apart in the first half of the season and truly excel in the back half?  To FanGraphs I went, hoping that their split leaderboard would make the exercise easy.  It didn't.  Can't query first and second half splits over multiple seasons.  Long story short, I'd wanted to do this going back at least 30 years, but had to do first and second half splits by year one at a time, so this only goes back 10 years.  Still interesting.  Methodology:

  • Had to have 200 PA in first half at a 650 or worse OPS, back half at 800 or better OPS with 200 PA or more (25 for 2018 - we have a long way to go this year)
  • Only 14 full seasons qualify in last 10 years.
  • Interestingly, Kinsler actually leads the pace over last 10 years.  Why is this about Calhoun, then?  Because for him, it started before the All Star Break, the FG splits just don't make looking at it that easy. Calhoun has 79 July PA with a 1.083 OPS.  Kinsler's full 72 July PA are at just an 816 OPS.  Much better!  Big news?  Not yet.
  • If either comes even close to keeping this up, they'll destroy Dan Uggla's 2011 rebound that was a 326 point swing, as both are north of 500 point swings currently.  

So, on to the leaderboard, sorted by 2nd half OPS minus 1st half OPS, for last 10 seasons.   By no means do I expect either Calhoun or Kinsler to keep this up.  I do, however, want to give credit where credit is due and root them on in the pursuit of the greatest 2nd half turnarounds in the last decade.  

1st = 1st half of season, 2nd = 2nd half of season.  Keep in mind that Kole has kept this up for 79 PA now, not just the 27 shown here.  

Name Year 1st PA 1st OPS 2nd PA 2nd OPS OPS Var
Ian Kinsler 2018 354 0.647 25 1.429 0.782
Kole Calhoun 2018 279 0.556 27 1.103 0.547
Dan Uggla 2011 374 0.622 298 0.948 0.326
Byron Buxton 2017 283 0.594 228 0.893 0.299
Asdrubal Cabrera 2015 325 0.627 226 0.916 0.289
Dustin Ackley 2013 219 0.522 208 0.809 0.287
Carlos Gonzalez 2017 298 0.637 236 0.921 0.284
Jorge Polanco 2017 287 0.596 257 0.870 0.274
Coco Crisp 2012 247 0.617 261 0.860 0.243
Omar Infante 2011 386 0.602 254 0.841 0.239
Ender Inciarte 2016 254 0.600 324 0.836 0.236
Cliff Pennington 2011 324 0.591 246 0.814 0.223
Gregor Blanco 2014 223 0.600 221 0.814 0.214
Aramis Ramirez 2010 261 0.648 246 0.847 0.199
Jonathan Lucroy 2015 212 0.632 203 0.808 0.176
Adam Lind 2010 351 0.641 262 0.807 0.166

 

4 hours ago, 101halo said:

Tonight's walk off had me curious - how often does a player fall apart in the first half of the season and truly excel in the back half?  To FanGraphs I went, hoping that their split leaderboard would make the exercise easy.  It didn't.  Can't query first and second half splits over multiple seasons.  Long story short, I'd wanted to do this going back at least 30 years, but had to do first and second half splits by year one at a time, so this only goes back 10 years.  Still interesting.  Methodology:

  • Had to have 200 PA in first half at a 650 or worse OPS, back half at 800 or better OPS with 200 PA or more (25 for 2018 - we have a long way to go this year)
  • Only 14 full seasons qualify in last 10 years.
  • Interestingly, Kinsler actually leads the pace over last 10 years.  Why is this about Calhoun, then?  Because for him, it started before the All Star Break, the FG splits just don't make looking at it that easy. Calhoun has 79 July PA with a 1.083 OPS.  Kinsler's full 72 July PA are at just an 816 OPS.  Much better!  Big news?  Not yet.
  • If either comes even close to keeping this up, they'll destroy Dan Uggla's 2011 rebound that was a 326 point swing, as both are north of 500 point swings currently.  

So, on to the leaderboard, sorted by 2nd half OPS minus 1st half OPS, for last 10 seasons.   By no means do I expect either Calhoun or Kinsler to keep this up.  I do, however, want to give credit where credit is due and root them on in the pursuit of the greatest 2nd half turnarounds in the last decade.  

1st = 1st half of season, 2nd = 2nd half of season.  Keep in mind that Kole has kept this up for 79 PA now, not just the 27 shown here.  

Name Year 1st PA 1st OPS 2nd PA 2nd OPS OPS Var
Ian Kinsler 2018 354 0.647 25 1.429 0.782
Kole Calhoun 2018 279 0.556 27 1.103 0.547
Dan Uggla 2011 374 0.622 298 0.948 0.326
Byron Buxton 2017 283 0.594 228 0.893 0.299
Asdrubal Cabrera 2015 325 0.627 226 0.916 0.289
Dustin Ackley 2013 219 0.522 208 0.809 0.287
Carlos Gonzalez 2017 298 0.637 236 0.921 0.284
Jorge Polanco 2017 287 0.596 257 0.870 0.274
Coco Crisp 2012 247 0.617 261 0.860 0.243
Omar Infante 2011 386 0.602 254 0.841 0.239
Ender Inciarte 2016 254 0.600 324 0.836 0.236
Cliff Pennington 2011 324 0.591 246 0.814 0.223
Gregor Blanco 2014 223 0.600 221 0.814 0.214
Aramis Ramirez 2010 261 0.648 246 0.847 0.199
Jonathan Lucroy 2015 212 0.632 203 0.808 0.176
Adam Lind 2010 351 0.641 262 0.807 0.166

Well done !    I love statistics in baseball more than any other sport .  The season has been sadly disappointing but I would find some solace in it on a individual players note  if Calhoun rebounds from his terrible first half . 

He plays his ass off every night and to his credit never brought his offensive woes into RF with his gold glove performance . That type of collapse often spells the beginning of the end of someones career so its great for him and the team he may be finding his offensive mojo again .

The Angels will need Calhoun to continue his resurgence as they pull off a 23 win month of August and get back into the wild card race ..

Hey -it ain't over until its over .

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32 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/tiny/wUi0Y

I only compares a player's 2nd half to the overall total. You get the idea.

Thanks Jeff! I actually started at bbref since I do pay, but didn't think to do it that way. Based on specifically requiring that you had to suck, bad, in the 1st half, I'd take out the 10 of first 25 that ended up with 900+ overall. I'd consider those "fine first half, monster second half guys," a little different than what I wanted. So, based on some back of the envelope math, Calhoun has an outside shot at landing in that 10-15 range all time. Would be awesome! 

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