Dave Saltzer

If we are doing this, I'd prefer to do a more expansive trade of Cron, Shoemaker, and Ward for Dozier and Mauer. That would benefit both teams. Dozier replaces Cron's power and solves our hole at 2B. Mauer replaces Cron at 1B and provides a left-handed bat, something Eppler has said he wants. When Mauer needs some rest, or the matchups are better, Marte gets ABs at 1B and provides more power. They get a replacement for 1B and replace the power they lost in Dozier, and they get a long-term solution to C and a pitcher. When Mauer is done, we could move Thaiss into 1B. Mauer's contract runs through 2018.

Yes, we'd be losing a pitcher, but we'd be solving a lot of problems and can still sign someone like Nova. I think we'd still be under the luxury tax still, but am not 100% sure.

1 hour ago, John Smith said:

 

 

Jeff Fletcher Verified account ‏@JeffFletcherOCR

Heard today the #Angels turned down an offer for a 2B who has a better bat than glove. Think defense is definitely a high priority at 2B.

I wonder who it was . . . 

3 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

I originally was thinking about a year back that Alcantara might be this current generation's answer to K-Rod.   Both started as starters in the minors, both developed a slider in the minors, both can dial it up.

But the more I read up on Alcantara, the more it becomes clearer that K-Rod's command at a similar stage was significantly better?

I would give a different scouting report on Alcantara. When I've seen him, his pitches have been flat and didn't move much. He was just relying on his speed to blow it past hitters and not worrying about the pitching aspect. As he dialed it up, his command dropped. As a result, hitters could sit on fat pitches and laid off things out of the zone. His mechanics were off and not repeatable. His big claim to fame was his 102 mph heat. 

As a person, he came across as a good guy, so I do hope he figures things out and makes it. If he does, he could be good to very good. But, it's going to take some work on his part. I'd still say he needs to go at 90-95%, and not try to use all his zip so that he can keep his command better. 

Between Alcantara and Middleton, I personally would rank Middleton higher. He has a better head on his shoulders on the mound and better command. 

Overall, I like this trade as it solved needs for both clubs and in my mind was a win/win trade.

On 11/3/2016 at 4:57 PM, Hubs said:

Well, Maybin fits in the mold of what David was saying in this blog. He wanted Brett Gardner and a 2B prospect for Alcantara and Morin. Now if they traded Morin for a 2B prospect, it would be pretty close.

Maybin (2016) 94 games, .315 BA, .383 OBP, .418 SLG, .801 OPS. 14 2B, 5 3B, 4 HR, 15 SB. Solid defensively.

Gardner (2016) 148 games, .261 BA, .351 OBP, .362 SLG, .713 OPS, 22 2B, 6 3B, 7 HR, 16 SB. Solid defensively.

Thanks. That was one of my initial thoughts about the trade for Maybin except Maybin costs less than Gardner, meaning more money could be used for 2B or the bullpen. I actually like the trade quite a bit, as I'm not that high on Alcantara. When I've seen him, his pitches have been flat and didn't move much side to side. He just tried to blow it by guys rather than actually locating it or moving it. That works at the low levels, but the hitters can and will catch up to it. I hope he figures things out, as he's a nice kid, but I'm not sure how it will play out. 

13 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Wouldn't we prefer to have two guys hitting in front of Trout who can get on base?

Why not just go after Fowler instead of creating a hole somewhere else? If 7 million dollars is really that big of an issue they can just trade Escobar and at least get some kind of value for him.

I wanted Fowler for a while because we needed a leadoff hitter. My guess is that Fowler will get a substantial raise, which may price him out of our ability to pay if we are going to get Hellickson and/or Nova, a 2B, and some bullpen pieces. But, I'd definitely like him at the right price.

29 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I asked a Yankees beat writer about Gardner recently and he doesn't think the Yankees have any interest in trading him. They need him. And the Angels don't exactly have anyone to make them change their minds. 

Forget Gardner. 

Thanks for looking into it Jeff. It's a good idea, but if it's not in the cards, we can come up with other ideas. 

1 minute ago, Homebrewer said:

Unless you are the Chicago Cubs, who fill the stadium anyhow.

They flat out told their faithful to expect at least five years.

Eppler specifically cited that and said we will not be 5 years away from being a playoff team.

We really are 3-5 moves away from being a playoff team, assuming Richards and the rest of the rotation are healthy. I don't buy, and the FO does not buy, that it's that bad. 1-2 starters, a 2B, and LFer and we are a 90 win team. Add in a bullpen arm or two, and we are even better.

11 minutes ago, nikkachez said:

Hey I just wanted to jump on here and thank you for the information, this was very informative, and I'm soooooo excited for the offseason. Sounds like some stuff is actually going to go down. 

 

Just one, or two, quick questions, you mentioned catcher/Matt Wieters, does that mean he's looking to acquire another catcher on top of Bandy and Perez? Because if he values the glove over the bat at catcher, I don't see a real need to add one since Bandy/Perez combined to be one of the better catching units (using FanGraphs' defensive ratings). Jason Castro looks like the only worthwhile, defensive-minded catcher on the free agent market. 

 

And one last one, since he's trying to stockpile talent in the minors (none of us can blame him obviously), it doesn't sound like they're going to acquire anyone via the trade, no? Limited trade assets, their best bet may be through free agency. 

He said he'd like to get a defensive catcher, but didn't think adding a 20 HR catcher would be as valuable (who else fits that bill besides Wieters?). He mentioned that we have defensive catchers already, so it isn't as necessary.

I didn't get the impression that they are opposed to trades. He explained the whole reasoning for trading Hector Santiago. He talked about opportunistic trades and used this an example. He said he was asked why he traded pitching when we needed pitching. He said he got 2 pitchers back in exchange for Santiago and enough money to make the deal cash neutral. So, he got a two for one deal. He said that if the Angels are going to be successful, they need to be opportunistic when trade proposals come up (I also got the impression that the Twins came at us with the deal more than we came at them for the deal). Using that as an example, if trading Cron and/or Calhoun could make us substantially better, that could happen.

Oh, one more thing I forgot to say: one question was why not trade Trout for a haul of prospects. The question received a resounding round of boos and Eppler said "We are not trading the best player in baseball." Not that it will end the pointless and useless threads discussing the idea, but we're not trading Trout.

5 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

There was much more "win now" pressure on Dipoto. Now that the Angels officially stink and it's accepted that it'll probably be a while before this club contends again...the methods have changed along with the perception and expectations. 

Disagree there. It was quite clear that the pressure is on to win another WS title. He was asked flat out if we are going to wait for 2018 to really contend or if we are going for it in 2017. He was very clear about going for it in 2017 and that there is only so long for the window with Trout. Now, we have the offseason to see if this is true or not, but, he talked about adding: 1-2 starters, 1-2 bullpen arms, a LFer and a 2B. He did say that they look at the options for 2018, and are cognizant of what might be available then, but they aren't passing up this offseason.

2 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I imagine even if they move Jones (and Hermosillo) aggressively, and he produces each step of the way, he's still not likely taking a starting role in the OF until 2019 at the earliest. That would be Kole's walk year. So either Jones takes an extra year in the minors somewhere, or shuttles between the bigs and AAA, or plays a bench role, or Calhoun gets dealt at some point.

I'd be surprised if Calhoun and Cron are both still here through the '19 season. Either one of them also represent some of the only tradeable MLB assets we have that could become expendable or at least replaceable, over the next couple of seasons. Thaiss could be pushing that issue as well by then, if not sooner.

Forgot to mention that he spoke highly of Thaiss. He was asked about drafting high school players vs. college players and pointed out how many of their top picks were on HS players, so he's open to it.

In speaking of Jones and signing FAs, he pointed out that even with a protected pick, we'd still lose a second rounder, which means losing a player like Jones. So, for him, the signing has to be better than getting another Jam Jones.

As for Cron and Thaiss, I can see Thais making Cron more expendable, and he might be the one on the move when the time comes. Eppler said Thaiss should move through the system pretty quickly.

12 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Wonder if Oberholtzer makes it through waivers and gets stashed at SLC. I have thought for awhile Eppler plans on going that route frequently to build up the upper levels, and confirmed as much in Saltzer's thread about his meeting with season ticket holders.

Claim a lot of guys, then DFA then when you think you have a chance at adding someone better or see a time where you think they'll sneak through waivers to round out AA/AAA.

You don't need a feeling to know that this is what Eppler is doing. He outright stated as much last night. Operation Clean Peanut is on in full force!

10 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Calhoun could be traded or shifted to 1B by then though too. 

What do you do with Cron? And, at this point, they are very high on Calhoun (as is almost every team, so I do believe he's going to get a good payday when he's a FA and may receive offers enough to lure him away so we may not get the final say on this). I know Cespedes posted a very good year, but I'm still a little bit leary of signing him to a mega deal.

10 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Sounds like Fletcher may get an opportunity to show his stuff at ST. Wouldn't be surprised if they start fast-tracking him and hold off acquiring any 2B who block that path. 

The LF comments....sounds like they wouldn't be opposed to considering Cespedes as a LF option. 

No, they wouldn't. But, if Cespedes wants a 5-6 year deal with no opt-outs, that could block Jones, and that could be problematic.

I almost wanted to tell him that some guy on AngelsWin.com wrote an article suggesting a trade for Gardner. In discussing LF, Eppler said that he would look for a guy who can cover more ground here over power. Between that, and his praise for Jam Jones, I was very much thinking how Gardner would be a great fit. They could even decline the option on Escobar, possibly move Marte to 3B, and use the money to get the 1 or 2 arms for the rotation and BP and improve 2B. 

One of the interesting things was his phrase for signing a FA player. He kept saying how he wanted to "take down a player for LF" or "take him down". It was funny and interesting to hear him refer to it much like a game for him as the GM. He briefly talked about how he sells a player on signing with the team (location, weather, clubhouse, being upfront and clear about his role, and some proprietary things he doesn't want the competition to know).

The best question of the night was asked by a fan named Tim Mead, sitting next to him. Tim asked him (after Eppler had gone on for a bit about his job as GM is to evaluate everything) "How would you evaluate your performance in your first year?"  Gotta love that fan. Great question!

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

What if they offered up a Top 15 prospect as well? I'm with you in that in far less interested in Ellsbury, but the Yanks have a ridiculous farm all of the sudden, and they actually could throw in an impact prospect if they were anxious to shed that contract. Freeing up 80% of Ellsbury's contract lets them bring back Chapman without adding to their payroll. Angels still get a (very costly) LF who still is an improvement and a blue-chip prospect as well. Heck they may even through in Refsnyder too.

As underwhelming and awful Ellsbury has been, he'd still be an improvement and is still putting up positive WAR. Gardner's remaining salary is peanuts to the Yanks, don't think it's hurting them much.

When the Meyer trade went down, I think Fletcher said Eppler could have gone a safer route, but he was far more interested in adding a prospect with much higher upside and potential, even if it meant greater risk. For that reason, I could see Ellsbury being the center of discussion more from the Yanks, with Billy eyeing a talent that could be much better than Refsnyder.

A great idea, but I think they really want to get younger and form another nucleus like they had in the late 90s to develop together. So, i don't see them wanting to give up such a good prospect just to jettison Ellbury's contract. Which one would you take if you could pick one to offset the trade?

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

I think that's probably the bigger hang-up on that deal. I don't think Morin and Alcantara get it done. They'd actually probably prefer we take Ellsbury over Gardner.

Most likely they would, but his contract is longer (signed through 2020 with an option to buy out), more money tied up, and his production isn't potentially as good. I don't want LF tied up forever. They'd have to pay a lot more money to move Ellsbury, and I don't see them wanting to do that.

16 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I really don't think Morin has the trade value you think he does, Dave. 

I don't think Gardner and his contract have the value that the Yankees are paying either. But, this is a case where they could improve through subtraction (both in salary and opening up a position), and probably might be willing to make a move similar to what I'm proposing so that they can fulfill other goals. They can easily replicate what they are getting from Gardner and Refsnyder internally (sadly they'd be a big improvement for us), shed payroll, stay under the luxury tax, and fill their other needs. We may have to fine-tune the details a bit, but, it's an idea of an interesting target for us to consider.

6 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Dave, if they don't see him at 2nd, I can see them trying for an upgrade and trading Escobar and his option. Is his arm or his range the issue?

 

They are comfortable for his option at 3B as far as I can tell. They aren't going to get a much better combination at that position for his cost (if only we had offered Beltre the 6th year guaranteed that he wanted to sign with us--imagine how much better we would have been!). As for his defense at 2B, they'd point to his lack of instincts, footwork, and glove work to safely man 2B. 

4 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Jones and Hermosillio? Seriously? Jones reached low-A, and Hermosillio, is going to AA next year. It's a long way to the majors for either of them.

We only have Calhoun for three more years, so worse case, they can move on from him or put him at 1st if one of these elite bats is raking in left. It's a good problem to have.

 

My bet is that Jones opens the season at IE (High A) and goes to AA by the middle of the season. Hermosillo will start in AA. While it's a long ways to the majors, guys who get on base and have speed tend to make it more than guys who don't. Their skills don't tend to drop as much from level to level. Both are young and still likely to grow in their skill sets quite a bit. I know that the Angels are very high on Jones and I'm a bit more optimistic about Hermosillo than other national observers.

6 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Second Basemen

Gordon Beckham (30)
Emmanuel Burriss (32)
Chris Coghlan (32)
Daniel Descalso (30)
Stephen Drew (34)
Johnny Giavotella (29)
Grant Green (29)
Kelly Johnson (35)
Tyler Ladendorf (29)
Jimmy Paredes (28)
Steve Pearce (34)
Eric Sogard (31)
Ruben Tejada (27)
Chase Utley (38)
Neil Walker (31)

No one on this list impresses me. 

Third Basemen

Yunel Escobar (34) — $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Aaron Hill (35)
Ruben Tejada (27)
Justin Turner (32)
Luis Valbuena (31)

We're better off picking up Escobar's option and moving him to 2nd, then trying for Turner or Valbuena. 

Then, in left, Gardner makes sense. 

Left Fielders

Nori Aoki (35)
Gregor Blanco (33)
Nick Buss (30)
Yoenis Cespedes (31) — can opt out of remaining two years, $47.5MM on current contract
Chris Coghlan (32)
Coco Crisp (37) — $13MM vesting/club option with a $750K buyout
Rajai Davis (36)
Alejandro De Aza (33)
Ian Desmond (31)
Matt Holliday (37) — $17MM club option with $1MM buyout
Craig Gentry (33)
Cole Gillespie (33)
David Lough (31)
Brandon Moss (33)
Angel Pagan (35)
Jimmy Paredes (28)
Alex Presley (31)
Ryan Raburn (36)
Colby Rasmus (30)
Michael Saunders (30)
Logan Schafer (30)
Eric Thames (30)

Beacause most of these guys aren't significant improvements and the ones who are going to cost a lot.

 

I cannot in any way see Scioscia and the front office letting Escobar play 2B. His defense is barely tolerable at times at 3B, and at 2B, would cost the team too many wins.

5 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Dave that is a huge increase, but if he slips more, at $13 M per, is he worth the risk?

Or is he another GMJ?

The risk is offset by adding Refsnyder (and the risk back to them is offset with Alcantara). Even if he slips a little more (which I doubt since he's still 32, will be hitting in front of Trout and Pujols and has maintained his OB skills even if his power dropped a bit), he'd still be a big upgrade offensively for us. And, most importantly, he only has 2 years guaranteed left, so we're off the hook in 2 years, or we can pick up the option if it is worth it.

3 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I agree we need to get a left fielder in 2017, but I think the Angels need to aim higher. I saw on Bleacher Report the Angels ending up with Ryan Braun, I don't think the Angels have the ammunition for a guy like Braun, but Yasiel Puig and Brandon McCarthy isn't a tremendous haul. Granted there were likely prospects headed to the Brew Crew from the Dogs, but reportedly not a top guy. So what like Trace Thompson? Someone else?

Cespedes or Braun is the type of bat I'd try to add and then get a low cost high OBP guy for 2nd or 3rd, if possible.

Luis Valbuena had an off year and is a FA, he is an excellent 3rd baseman and good with the bat. Granted he's not a top OBP type, but he'd be a valued add. And at least a solid platoon option with Marte at 3rd. 

 

 

I don't want to tie up the dollars and years it would take to land Cespedes when we have Jones and Hermosillo in the pipeline (I believe Hermosillo is underrated by many). Gardner fits our timeline and allows us to use money to shore up other problems. I don't think we have the talent to land Braun. 

As for Puig, the Dodgers have a huge problem. They want teams to pay what he's worth for his potential talent, not what his actual talent has been, and won't deduct anything for his serious clubhouse issues. I've talked with several scouts who have said that the Dodgers are unrealistic in what they want for him. Until they drop their price, it will be nearly impossible to move him according to what I've been told. I've also been told if they really wanted to move him, they could have at several points, and chose not too. I really doubt that they would trade him across town to us.