Dave Saltzer

17 minutes ago, totdprods said:

We can't be too picky in LF though. We aren't really going to get the ideal LF - there isn't one available in FA, and there isn't anyone we could afford on the trade market. 

Angels LF in '16: .204/.271/.313/.584
Angels LF in '15: .216/.275/.317/.592
Angels LF in '14: .234/.293/.336/.629
Angels LF in '13: .275/.330/.392/.722 - And Mike Trout was 45 of these. 

For 600 games, we have been godawful in LF, and Brett Gardner, with all of his warts, is still a massive, massive upgrade over what has been out there. He strikes out a lot, doesn't have much pop, and costs a lot - but he won't cost a lot to trade for, gets on base at an above-average clip, can steal 15-20 bags and play at least decent defense, and has consistently been a 3-4 WAR player with a .700+ OPS, and is only under contract for two more years. By then, we should have payroll or a prospect ready to take over. 

If all it cost was Morin, Alcantara, and even a low-level lotto ticket prospect and absorbing some salary, I'd do it, even more so if we got Refsnyder or another prospect back.
 

Last year was a down year for Gardner and he posted a .261/.351/.362 slash line. How much better would that be than what we've seen since 2013?

11 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Exactly, we benefit a lot from having Marte as a bench/platoon bat still. Gives us a very, very strong in-house replacement. It's not like we'd be bumping him back to SLC. We'd be strengthening our bench and depth by keeping him there. 

I agree. I want Marte to get around 250-300 ABs and maybe become a replacement at 3B. If he's really killing it again, we could consider moving him to 1B and trading Cron, but I'm not ready to make that call right now.

1 hour ago, mulwin444 said:

You guys are a lot higher on SRod than myself.  I don't know, I guess I see a guy who's hit .230 .300 .700 over a decade and there's really not much there to look at.  Sure, he can play multiple positions and that has value but if you going for quasi-2B who can play elsewhere why not Chris Coghlan or Daniel Descalso?  

I agree, I'm a bit higher on Rodriguez because I saw him in the minors, thought he'd have more power, and he finally showed it this year, swinging like he did in the minors. I've read some articles on him saying that he went back to his original swing (which the Angels changed--which could make it harder to sign him), and he rediscovered the power this year. 

But, your options are fine and in many ways, they place an upper limit on how much we should pay for any of these 2B players. Of the two, I'd prefer Coghlan, but you raise good ideas as well.

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

FWIW, Refsnyder also grew up an Angels fan and went to Laguna Hills, and as we've seen with Nolasco, sometimes a player simply coming home can let them flourish. Gardner checks off many of the same boxes I'd be eyeing with Jon Jay who I've been wanting, so no disagreement there.

I'm not sold on Hellickson. He'd be helpful for 2017, but I think his production can be closely replicated in-house in 2018-20 with guys like Heaney and Tropeano coming back. He was really, really sub-par for three years before this season. It feels like the CJ Wilson deal all over again, a 5-yr, $80m deal that really, really blows by the last two years. Plus we lose our 2nd rounder. Basically, I don't want a $15-18m/yr Jeremy Hellickson clogging a back of the rotation spot for 4 years when we should have a full rotation's worth of cheaper, comparable arms by next year. I think if I was going to shell out that amount of coin and lose a pick, I'd look at Jansen first. That said, I'm satisfied enough with Eppler's track record so far though that if he decided Hellickson was the guy, I wouldn't bitch too much about it and hope he provides 200 IP with a sub-4 ERA for 3 or 4 years, and he may be capable of that. The biggest thing I want to see added in the rotation this offseason is durability. 

I'm good with the Angels signing SRod. I don't know if we'd count on him to be much better than what we have in-house, but as I've mentioned in other threads, I don't like the idea of moving Marte into a 'full-time' LF role without making an additional move to replace the presence he'd have on the bench, and SRod would do that to a degree. 

I could see Boone Logan creeping into the bullpen discussion as well, and I'd like to see an effort to bring both Bailey and Chacin back. 

I would want both Bailey and Chacin back, in that order.

I get what people are saying about Hellickson, but, we need more pitching depth. Remember, after next year, Nolasco is gone, so Tropeano and/or Heaney already will be needed. Meyer could stay in the pen. And, we always will need an extra few arms, so, I'd rather have Hellickson at a reasonable deal (I think 4/$64 is fair and reasonable). We just have so many questions about our pitching that I'd rather have too much over too little.

19 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

Just a couple of things:

1)  I don't mind the idea of Gardner as a maybe a bounce back candidate if the Yankees are willing to eat some of the remaining $26 owed over the next two seasons ($12.5 mil in 2017, $11.5 mil in 2018 and $2 mil to buy out the options in 2019).  His numbers have been on the downward trend the last three seasons and is really only good for some solid LF defense, decent OBP and a handful of steals.  As for Rob Refsnyder, he's still young (25) and has some success in the minors.  I don't know if question marks like Morin and Alcantara are enough to get both or even Refsnyder by himself.  Yankees just traded away their best BP pieces in Miller and Chapman and need guys that fill the void which these guys are not.  I guess your best shot might be both Morin and Alcantara for Gardner with Yankees chipping in some cash but, in the end, they are the Yankees and don't need salary relief.

 

2)  Wouldn't mind Hellickson as a 3 or 4 starter but don't know if he's worth losing our 2nd round pick for in '17.  It all comes down to if he gets a QO and what the prevailing contract offers are for him next year.

 

3)  As for Rodriguez, depends on how much he's going to cost.  Career years at age 31 are suspicious and he was a .700 OPS player before that with limited OBP skills.  If he doesn't cost much, sure.

4)  I agree the most money should be invested in rehabilitating the bullpen.

1) That's why I thought Refsnyder and Gardner might be the better combo. The Yankees have much better internal and external options to replace both, and rather than giving up salary, which might hamper their ability to pursue a high-end bullpen piece, they'd rather give up pieces to get more salary relief. I agree talent wise, it's not a fair trade. But, throw in the salary relief that they will get, and we may have the workings of a deal.

2) Agree that there is a ceiling of where I'd go regarding Hellickson, but, if we could get him at 4/$64, I'd do it. 

3) Again, agree that all things have an upper price limit. However, we need to solve 2B for the foreseeable future, so, we need someone for 3-4 years at that position.

4) Bullpens have so many variables that it is hard to determine what would be the best fit. But, we need to throw money at the problem.

26 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Not bad, but one quibble. Hellickson is a solid pitcher, but more of a #3-4 type -- which is pretty much Skagg's projected floor. Why not just give the much less expensive Skaggs a shot? Or why not put Meyer into the bullpen where he could thrive? Either way, Skaggs deserves a rotation spot. I have my questions about whether he'll ever pan out, but the potential to be a #2-3 is still there.

The problem for the Angels is that every member of the projected rotation, except for Nolasco--who is a sure-bet for #4 level production--is a question mark in terms of health, consistency, etc. The makes it rather difficult to plan for the season. But my view is that Eppler shouldn't spend on solid, #3-5 types, but rather hope for the best with Richards, Shoemaker, Skaggs, Nolasco and Meyer, and then build depth via more Meyer/Banuelos type pick-ups: cheap players with some upside. You get enough of these guys and someone is bound to turn out.

 

We could put Meyer in the pen at first and Skaggs in the rotation. I just figured we'd still need some surplus pitching, and with all the injuries, would like Hellickson as well as Skaggs and Meyer. I know that Hellickson is a #3 type pitcher, but there aren't any better FA options and we don't have the talent on the farm to swing a deal for a better pitcher. Even with Hellickson, I'd also pursue some other pickups to have the depth. I don't want to go through another season wondering if we can even get anyone to throw the ball across the plate. We need more depth and versatility.

Okay folks, take this for what it is. It's an early look at a different way to rebuild the Angels this offseason. We all know the needs and the limitations. We can't solve all of our problems with money, and even if we could, the talent just isn't there to buy. We are going to have to be creative, and, we are going to have to accept some limitations if we are going to make the team better overall. It's been a while since I've been writing, and I'm trying to ease my way back into it, but I thought I'd put something on here to start the discussion going forward.

So, here are some thoughts I've had. I get it that I will be criticized for some of the trades (not necessarily working out), but I'd at least suggest them. And, we can argue about the money a bit more later. 

First Move: Trade Mike Morin and Victor Alcantara to the Yankees for Bret Gardner and Rob Refsnyder.

Why we'd do it: It solves left field and gives us a starting point for second base. Gardner can leadoff, Escobar drops to second, and Trout now has a much better chance to hit with more runners on base. More importantly, Gardner's contract is for 2 more years, at which point Jones or Hermosillo should be ready to take over the position. If they need a little more seasoning, Gardner's contract has an option for 2019, which we could easily exercise. In a pinch, Gardner could play CF to give Trout a day off. 

As for Refsnyder, the scouting reports on his defense at 2B are mixed, but I will be honest, mostly not good. I haven't seen him play there enough to really comment on it. He's young, so maybe he can be improved with reps. I don't expect him to be elite, but if he can be average, that would be a step up from what we've had, especially if he can produce offensively (his bat is supposed to be worth it). Plus, with a subsequent move (see below), I will be able to limit his defensive liabilities if they can't be overcome through improvement. He wouldn't be my starter, but, he should get between 200-300 ABs over the course of a season. And, for those who want to harp on Refsnyder's defensive limits, I have to ask how many of you would be willing to try converting Cowart into a 2B? If you are comfortable with him manning the position, I think Refsnyder would be at least as good at 2B as Cowart, if not better defensively.

Why the Yankees would do it: They want to shed some salary and need to add some power to their lineup. They have several OF prospects who could easily replace Gardner, or they could go after a more elite OFer with power to replace him. They need bullpen help (as do we, and I know, we're trading away bullpen assets--but we need LF and 2B help more, and bullpen arms might be easier to find than those positions). Yes, I get it that they'd say that it's not fair value, but Gardner is coming off a down year, Refsnyder essentially has no home in their lineup (he's blocked at both 2B and the OF), so, they may be happy to shed payroll to improve elsewhere. Alcantra and Morin both have upside, and could easily bolster a major league pen in the long run. Yankees fans might not be happy with the move initially, but when they get a big splash somewhere else, they probably will forget about the trade very quickly. They need to shed payroll and get younger if they want to become again. They won't get fair value without eating salary, and I think they'd rather have the payroll flexibility than get fair value back for these two players.

Second Move: Sign Jeremy Hellickson.

The Angels have the highest protected pick this year. We need to utilize the security that it provides. Of the top free agent pitchers this year, the one I'd pursue, and the one I think Eppler will pursue is Hellickson. I think he can be had for the most reasonable deal in terms of dollars and years (Rich Hill may be a shorter deal, but more dollars and more risk due to his age). I could be wrong on this, as most teams may want to jump in on him, but, he would be my preferred choice. At some point, I'd walk away from the deal and pursue Nova, but would much prefer to sign Hellickson because he has a better track record.

Third Move: Sign Sean Rodriguez to Play 2B.

I always like Rodriguez as an Angels prospect and always thought that he would produce some power. And, I've always liked how flexible Rodriguez has been defensively. The Angels will need to get more overlap out of their roster so that one injury doesn't become too critical. We have no depth at 2B anywhere near ready. With Rodriguez and Refsnyder, we'd have some backup. Plus, he can also play 3B, OF, and 1B in a pinch. 

Look at how much losing Cron hurt the team last season. Not that it was the reason why the team was so bad, but, it certainly didn't help. With a roster of Rodriguez, Marte, Pennington, and Cowart, we'd have much more flexibility around the entire infield and wouldn't have such a tremendous drop in production if an injury occurs.

Fourth Move: Spend all Remaining Money on Boosting the Bullpen.

Most likely, Street and Bedrosian will return next year fully healthy to form a nice end to the bullpen. But, the 6th and 7th innings could sure use some help, especially, if Morin is traded. While I think Middleton could be ready for a role in the pen by the end of the season, we need more help now. We can argue about which arms to pursue, and I'll let plenty of people discuss that. I will trust the FO to try and get the most out of the remaining funds. Since a lot of that will depend on how much we spend based on the three previous moves, it's a bit difficult to speculate these moves.

Conclusion

Overall, I think all of these moves are affordable for the Angels this offseason. Sure, we might have to add a little more to get the trade done with the Yankees, but I think it's a good start on the idea. They aren't totally dealing from a position of strength (as mentioned, Gardner did have a down year--even though he still got on base well), and Refsnyder is blocked. They can't add too much payroll, and would be better off shedding some payroll. I believe that these moves fit with most of Eppler's comments about still wanting to improve getting on base and his familiarity with players from the AL East. It would definitely make the Angels an improved team, one that would be far more competitive than last year's team.

Proposed New Rotation

Richards

Hellickson

Shoemaker

Nolasco

Meyer

Proposed New Lineup

1. Gardner, LF (L)

2. Escobar, 3B (R)

3. Trout, CF (R)

4. Pujols, DH (R)

5. Calhoun, RF (L)

6. Cron, 1B (R)

7. Bandy, C (R)

8. Rodriguez, 2B (R)

9. Simmons, SS (R)

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

Besides the guys mentioned, I have been interested in the progress of this years draft class.  Lund, Zimm, Gibbons, Montgomery.  

There are a few foreign guys that have peaked my interest in Oliver Ortega, Leon Rivas, Jose Rodriguez, Luis Pena

Other guys 

Greyson Long, Kevin Grendell, Jared Foster, Middleton, Castillo (our steal from the Joe Smith trade), Alcantara, Scribner and I always check Sherm

There are others, but here's another that I'm keeping track of, and will be posting an interview I did with . . . Jonah Wesely. There are several others.

6 hours ago, Dick B Back said:

Good stuff, thanks Dave!

Thanks. Everyone should listen to this as he gives a good analysis of several of out top draft picks this year who had already moved on by the time I got there. They weren't being challenged enough in Orem (players like Thaiss, Justus, and Zimmerman). I encourage everyone to watch this interview.

He's been one of my sleeper prospects for a while. I was heading out to catch him for an interview today, but got held up and won't be able to make it before the game. I will try to get there on Saturday to get an interview with him. Anyone interested in meeting up? Alex Meyer is scheduled to start the game as well.

Jamai Jones is coming up in a little bit. Nick Flair, Nate Bertness, Sam Pastrone, Jonah Wesely, and Jose Rojas. All definitely worth getting to know as future players.

Seeing how many of the Angels players were able to identify the song, why not "Dancing Queen"? 

Or, for an aging veteran" Glory Days". 

And, my friend Kevin's suggestion "Do You Really Want To Hurt Me?". That would take some big cajones to walk out to Culture Club. 

40 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

RHP version of Kershaw?   Not many HS pitchers are selected in the top 5.   Even Kershaw was selected 8th overall.

Right now, it is early and speculation so far (translated: a lot can happen between now and next June), but according to several, he is far and away the best prospect out there at this time. Two plus-plus pitches, one developing plus pitch, mid to upper 90s heat, so I'm told. Someone is likely to use an early pick on him.

I have talked with several scouts who are very high on this year's Hunter Greene. At this point they see him going in the top 5 picks. 

Let's face it, this team is toast this year. And, we need some comic relief around here. As I was sitting at the game today, I was wondering what would be the worst song ever for a player--something that no one would ever want to walk out to. Hell, at the rate they are playing, if they had any decency, they'd take our best suggestions and do it for a game as a slump buster!

So c'mon Angelswin, don't let me down. What's the best (worst) you can do?

I believe that Hermosillo is quite underrated and definitely would put him in the top 30.

I'm heading back out of town and am looking to sell my Thursday, August 4th tix for $200, which is well below face. These are incredible seats, directly behind home plate, and I will include the prepaid parking. Please send me a PM if interested by Saturday.

I'm heading back out of town and am looking to sell my Tuesday, August 2nd tix for $200, which is well below face. These are incredible seats, directly behind home plate, and I will include the prepaid parking. Please send me a PM if interested by Saturday.

5 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Since the All-Star break, he's hit .318 with 10 RBI and a .400 on base percentage. Before the break, he was hitting just .224 with a pathetic .541 OPS.

Baby steps! 

If you've never seen it, here's our interview that @Dave Saltzer did with our #1 pick last year. 

 

Taylor Ward 07-30-2015 from AngelsWin.com on Vimeo.

I am planning on getting out there in either late July or mid August to do a follow up interview with him. I have seen the improvement and hope it stays that way for the rest of the season. 

Howdy,

I will be out of town on July 20th, and want to sell my Diamond Club tix. I have 2 seats directly behind home plate and the premier parking (pre-paid), I would like to get $200 for the pair and can meet you any time between now and this Wednesday to give you the tickets. That's way below face value, and they are great seats.

Please send me a message if interested.

Thanks,

Dave

Howdy,

I will be out of town on July 19th, and want to sell my Diamond Club tix. I have 2 seats directly behind home plate and the premier parking (pre-paid), I would like to get $200 for the pair and can meet you any time between now and this Wednesday to give you the tickets. That's way below face value, and they are great seats.

Please send me a message if interested.

Thanks,

Dave

36 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

This is where I say that I am not going to say "I told you so."

I never for one second believed that kid wouldn't sign. 

Bit the real question Jeff is where do you stand on whether Susan Sarandon was hot or not? 

So what we now know is that a younger Susan Sarandon was hot and Brandon Marash may or may not become the next Mike Trout. Got it. Only on AngelsWin.com can a thread about a draftees turn into a debate over how hot an actress was. 

I'd love to see him in the broadcasting booth as Halo. 

May she and her family find perfect rest and peace. Now she is with the real angels.