Dave Saltzer

Is it me, or does Adell still seem apprehensive of sliding? 

From: https://www.baseballprospectjournal.com/2024-mlb-draft-mock-draft-2-0/

8. Angels: JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia

The Angels prefer taking college players who can move through the minor leagues quickly. Wetherholt has missed some time this year with a hamstring injury. When healthy, Wetherholt is an extremely productive player and arguably the best prospect in this year’s class. He has a well-rounded skill set, tremendous feel at the plate and potential.

From Baseball America:

8. Angels — JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia

One of the players in our top tier of prospects in the class has to come off the board last and in this version it’s Wetherholt, who has simply been on the field less than anyone else. Wetherholt missed a significant amount of time dealing with a hamstring injury, but he returned to action earlier this month in a limited role as a DH.

The bat has been as advertised. He’s hit or walked in all 14 games this season and is slashing .326/.492/.535 with bat-to-ball ability and zone control skills that stack up with the elite hitters in these areas like Bazzana and Kurtz. If a team before this spot thinks Wetherholt is the best pure hitter in the class still—which is a perfectly reasonable claim—it’s possible a hamstring injury won’t be enough for them to pass him up. 

If Wetherholt does make it here, he seems to fit the advanced college hitting profile the Angels have prioritized in recent drafts. He also hits the ball harder than the 6-foot-4 first baseman they drafted in the first round last year.

From Bleacher Nation:

1. Los Angeles Angels: Chase Burns – RHP – Wake Forest

Maybe there is something to this. 

I'm not saying this is the case, but it is possible that the Angels considered a few other factors when deciding where to start players, such as how cold some of the places are this early on in the season. And, they may want to pair some players together to break into the majors at the same time, such as Rada and Dana. 

As a hitter, I wouldn't want to get busted inside for 2 months in the cold. 

From: https://futurestarsseries.com/mlb-draft-mock-draft-4-0/

8. Los Angeles Angels

Chase Burns, RHP — Wake Forest
HOMETOWN: Gallatin, TN
HEIGHT: 6-4
WEIGHT: 215
BAT/THROW: R-R

On 4/8/2024 at 10:55 AM, nando714 said:

I was there Friday, 

boo’d as loud as I could. 

worst owner in sports sans Fisher 

Over Georgia Frontierre? Please. Hyperbole doesn't help. 

Torii Hunter was the first player to allow me to interview him in the clubhouse, which then "normalized" me to other players. After the Hunter interview, I was able to get a few more, but be started it all. 

For that, I am eternally grateful. 

I have always wanted him to get a role in our FO or another one. He has a lot of wisdom, and a lot of baseball wisdom. I hink he'd bring some excellent insights into creating a winning organization. I'd love to get his takes on some of our developing OFers. 

Maybe I can get another interview with him and we can get him on the Podcast. 

On 4/1/2024 at 7:16 PM, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

I got some news visiting Easter dinner.... We should be happy we're no longer involved... 

I'm glad that we got to see 2 MVP seasons from Shohei. But, I'm also glad that he is not on he team, not only because of the insane contract, but also because of his major distraction. 

However, I also don't think that the Angels are out of it. Most likely, they will be inte viewed, along with Nevin, and all he other players, because the gambling happened primarily while he was on our team, and they would have some idea about who did the gambling. 

21 minutes ago, AngelStew43 said:

I think we should continue our strategy of drafting as many power arms as possible.  If the organization can find a few more players like Caden Dana and Barrett Kent, they could actually trade from an area of strength, as young, controllable pitching is MLB gold these days.  

If you have it, you can trade for players that you like, that may make your team a championship caliber team. 

I mostly agree, but our first pick should be another fast riser, as there aren't too many and one should fall to us (either a hitter like JJ or a pitcher). There are a lot of 1B, but we have Schanuel. 

After that, I mostly agree on power arms, but Caldwell could be another interesting pick. He's a bit undersized, but in some ways reminds me of El Rojo, who just made the team better. A good combination of speed, power, contact, and defense. 

After a polished college player I'd focus on some.power HS arms to create another wave of pitching talent. With the staff we have, and the players in development, we can afford to take higher end HS players l create another wave of talent. 

That is sooo cool! I love and miss Victor, but Wayne is settling in nicely! I am so glad that we interviewed him and got him on the podcast. 

Absolutely cool! 

Please post anything and send everything related to the 2024 amateur draft in here. Anything from mock draft picks for the Angels and scouting reports to draft strategies and signing bonuses. 

Personally, with our first oick, we can draft JJ Wetherholt to be a lefthanded 2B to go with our young core. I think he could zip through our system, ev n with the time he's missed with a hamstring issue (hell, the fact that he's had a hamstring issue already makes him fit in with us already! Just kidding). 

Here's a profile on JJ:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/jj-wetherholt-802139

My strategy for the draft would be to focus on a finished college hitter with our first pick and then with our supplemental picks and in the second and third rounds, go after some high school players. 

This draft is considered to be generally weak, especially with college pitching and high school players in general. However, there are some good finds there, and with a few players moving up the boards a bit, I think that a polished college bat should be available to us. At worst, one of the better college arms should be available for us to take. 

After getting a more polished college player with our first pick with our supplemental picks and 2nd and 3rd round, I'd go after HS players to add a new layer of development for us. 

One player that I'm keeping an eye on is Slade Caldwell for our Shohei pick. He's a bit undersized, so he could fall to us in a supplemental round. 

Here's a profile on him. 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/slade-caldwell-815154

8 hours ago, BTH said:

If Bazzana keeps hitting like he does, he’ll be off the board long before the Angels pick.

This. 

We will have a shot at a good hitter or pitcher with our first pick, as Condon and others rise (if you want unreal numbers, check out Condon). 

With his hamstrinf injury I think that JJ Wetherholt could fall to us, and be a greet lefthanded 2B to round out our young core. 

I've started another thread to just focus on the draft. 

On 3/31/2024 at 3:38 AM, Inside Pitch said:

I'm always up to talk baseball but given you have ignored what I've said both times and downplayed what happened I'm not certain we would get anywhere.  The Angels situation was essentially a case of one bad actor.

First let me remind you initially called into question the legitimacy of what happened, now you are seemingly saying that they did in fact do some bad things, but so did others.

I have forgotten more "bad things" MLB teams have done in regards to Latin American players than I can likely remember -- but none of those things matter in this particular case.  Bringing up the past misdeeds of others serves no purpose other than to try to deflect blame or downplay things, I prefer to be honest about the situation and let's be clear here, the Angels didn't do bad things -- Clay Daniel did.  

I have no idea who told you this nonsense but they weren't even the team that caught the worst of it -- that would be the Chicago White Sox, or can you please tell me one thing MLB did to punish the Angels, I'll wait. 

The difference was the Sox didn't sweep it under the rug, they went to the Feds, got the justice department involved and had the guilty parties prosecuted -- three different people served jail time ranging from one year and one day to two years. Front office types were always known to have cut deals with buscones to sign lesser players so they would funnel the better talent to them (signing the shit guys raised the buscon's reputation among the player base), but what happened here was entirely different, players/teams were defrauded.

Back to the Angels' situation, while the Sox owned up to everything and went hard after David Wilder, Jorge Oquendo, Victor Mateo, and the others, the Angels tried to sweep it under the rug, in part because it had not been as rampant as the CWS situation. Ultimately, Chicago's willingness to shit on Wilder and company (as well as the arrests and jail time), carried a lot of weight with the buscones and general population whereas the Angels course of action and their unwillingness to talk about it made them seem like they were covering up.  Consider this... of the three teams that were under investigation for this you had one fire (he resigned) their GM (Nats).  One had their director of player development and head of Latin American talent fired, arrested, jailed, and ordered to pay back monies (CWS), and then the Angels who fired a lower level manager in their farm system and left it at that. When you consider that the Nats were only guilty of having a GM who had worked with the people involved (he had been party to the deals with buscones to sign bad players while in Cinci), it made the Angels actions seem rather limp wristed.

As far as where I got my info from... Preston Gomez was one of Stoneman's advisors, he had been one of the Washington Senators/Twins boys when they made their major push for Cuban talent prior to the revolution -- there were few people alive that had a more nuanced knowledge of MLB and it's approach to Latin America over the decades. His main thing at the time was to go down and meet with/speak to all the Latin American players at both of the Angels academies in the DR and VZ. He was intimately aware of who, what, where, and when. He gave me the rundown as it was happening, before it made it to the press ... ditto the Donny Rowland mess which is actually pretty hilarious but lacks the sexiness as it was entirely office politics so to speak.

There was no making an example of the Angels, it was entirely a perception issue brought on by the Angels lack of action and maybe the CWS scorched Earth approach that iced the Angels out and made it difficult for them to sign players. Also there was a bit of arrogance involved. They believed they could weather the storm because the farm was in fact thriving and that they could rely on the draft to continue to supply the team with talent for a few years. 

They miscalculated on several fronts. 

Disagreements aside, I'd like to echo what others have said and wish you well as it pertains to your health.  None of this Angels BS matters by comparison.

First and foremost, thank you for the well wishes. We can agree or disagree about baseball things, but, I appreciate that you aren't losing your humanity in the process. Thank you. 

I am sorry that you believe that I am downplaying what happened. Maybe I am, but there are reasons for it. 

First, this happened 15 years ago. There's nothing you or I can do about it. While you said that it was probably the worst thing to happened to our farm system, I would say firing Bane and Co., and not investing in scouting and player development was worse. We can discuss this at a baseball game sometime this year. (maybe at IE to watch our future!). Whether we agree or disagree, we can agree that the one-two punch of those BAD decisions wrecked the farm for about a decade and hurt our Major League club. It probably cost us playoff spots over the years. 

Second, baseball is my love and escape from all the hell I've gone through and am still going through. I choose not to give this negativity power over me by getting me upset, pissed off, etc.

(Just to give an idea, if you count each time that I've had doctors cut open my skin and dig out things with tweezers and other tools due to my cancer, without any anesthetic, I'm at over 400 this year, of which 200 were on my head, and we'll over a thousand last year. It hurts like hell, often with 2 or 3 doctors cutting and digging st the same time, and then it takes days for the scabs to heal, which is also very painful. 

My cancer is one of the most painful cancers out there, other than brain cancer, and I get to live with it for 25 years or more (most people with my cancer die of other causes). (and, if I'm making some typos, it's because thanks to my chemo, I've lost most of the feeling in my hands and feet--go neuropathy!) and can't see well because other meds that they have given me have given me cataracts so I get to have 2 more surgeries over the next 6 weeks).

I am telling you this not to ask you to feel sorry for me. To be honest I don't feel sorry for me, and am not angry about getting cancer. I just don't like the one I have. 

The reason why I said that (and trust me, this is the best I've felt in 3 years!) is to give you some insight as to why I appear to downplay things or give the perception of downplaying things. The only thing that truly upsets me now is politics, which I won't discuss on here. That's because baseball is my escape, coming on AngelsWin is a source of joy for me (Thanks again Chuck for making this site--you don't know how much I've needed it over the years, whether for support fom people on here or a good laugh about baseball). I have and have had bigger issues to deal with over the years. So, what happened in Latin America, while very frustrating, has no real power over me, because I choose not to get upset by it. I don't want to invest the emotional energy in something I cannot change. 

Third, I can separate a crime from feeling sorry for a victim. Take, for example, a person driving a Corvette into a bad part of town, leaving $10k in cash on the front seat, and the engine running, and then walks away for an hour. If that person comes back to find everything stolen, did a come occur? Yes, and in a criminal case, I'd convict the perpetrator. 

But, if the victim then sued in civil court the perpetrator, if I were on he jury, I would not award much in damages, other than to make the victim whole, because I wouldn't feel l that sorry for him/her.  There is a difference between feeling sorry for someone and a crime occurring. 

As I have said all along, Clay Daniel's did some bad things. And, since Daniel's worked for the Angels, as their agent, the Angels did bad things. There is a difference between what the Angels did (mostly ignoring what was happening, then trying to sweep it under the rug, and finally shutting everything down) and what Daniels did. But, for all intents and purposes, yes, Daniels = Angels, especially on that market. 

From what I've been told by many people in several organizations who had first-hand or second-hand knowledge of events in Latin America (please don't ask, I've been told this and many other things off the record that I will never reveal, otherwise I will risk losing confidentialitiesl), that many people and many organizations were doing sketchy and/or illegal things at the same time. You mentioned 3 teams. We know the Braves, even after everything went down, continued to do sketchy things, which led to us getting Maitan (I miss debating about him as a prospect even though he washed out) and Soto. So, the abuses there continue. 

I can tell you from people in other organizations, I have been told things to the effect of "we were lucky that we weren't caught" for what they were doing at the time in Latin America.

I have also been told by people in a couple of organizations that in the investigation, MLB sank it's teeth into certain organizations, and not others, so as to prevent an entire image problem, like steroids. So, when I say "made an example of the Angels" it's because I think that the investigation could have and should have removed rot from everywhere, in plenty of other organizations. Consequently, I am VERY suspicious of how MLB really handled the investigation, the teams they went after, and publicly shamed (how many people who even know about this know about Chicago for example?).

Again, it doesn't excuse what Daniels did, but I don't believe that he was the worst offender at the time, even if what he did was illegal or wrong (sadly, in many Lain American countries, what is wrong isn't always illegal, especially if you pay off the right people and what is illegal isn't always wrong, don't pending upon whom you uoset--as you pointed out, relationships and perceptions, along with cash, go a long way). I do believe that others may have done worse in a wild west situation and just weren't caught for some reason. Like players and steroids, we know of some players who took them. But a lot more got away with it, and ownership and MLB turned a blind eye to it for a long time. Is Bonds worse than Clemens? What about Gary Matthews Jr? MLB made examples of them, and others, but they were hardly the only ones who cheated with steroids or other drugs. To go after some, and not others, is a form of selective prosecution, which I don't like or consider fair. Selective prosecution is a way to make an example of someone or something. Since I am fairly certain, based on what I've been told, that other teams were doing similar sketchy things, maybe not as bad as Daniels and other teams, I do consider that selective prosecution, and making an example of the Angels. 

How the Angels responded to what happened, IMHO, set the team back quite a bit, and I do believe that if Arte and others responded differently to it, we would have been better off over the last 15 years. But again, I can't change that. 

Finally, I'm focused on this year. I'm actually excited because we seem to have a good, young core, that I believe will exceed expectations. No, I don't expect a playoff team, but the season is young and we need to play it out over the summer. We have no pressure this year, and I do see us having a window as Houston ages and Texas rises and falls on its offense. We seem to be on the right path, finally. We are maximizing our international money and getting good talent, like Rada, Urena, etc.

Until MLB puts far stricter rules in place (personally, I favor some sort of international draft to end all of these shenanigans), abuses will continue. Again, just look at the Braves for example. So, I sill view it as an imperfect system that is not fully regulated and rife with abuses.

Unfortunately, that is the system that those players live in (as you or someone else noted that the buscones are developing tools to get kids (and yes, they are kids which is not right in my book) to get signed for big money, only to see them calm apart stateside. 

I know that this is a long response, but you, as a poster, and great commentator, deserve a much more robust answer from me. 

Again, I apologize if you and others think I'm downplaying what happened. I hope I gave you some insights into why I've said what I've said.  And I look forward to catching a game with you. 

Yep, this was a very good read. Lots of good info on here. Definitely everyone should read it. 

Thanks Taylor! 

Taylor,

As always, I enjoy your writing, so, I'm looking forward to digging into this in a little bit.

Thanks for publishing!

On 3/29/2024 at 8:23 PM, Inside Pitch said:

You tried to downplay this once before -- there is no debating the legitimacy of anything, Clay Daniels was dirty. The CWS crew made the Angels look like choir boys but it wasn't a case of the usual Latin American BS, thus the Federal indictments, busts at airports, arrests, and prison time. Clay Daniel stole from players and it cost the Angels dearly.

They didn't so much choose to shut down as much as they didn't have a choice, they were effectively black-balled in the DR. They continued to try to sign guys after the fact but couldn't, the buscones steered away the top end guys and the scrubs who should have been happy with room, board, and the chance to advance, deluded themselves into thinking they deserved more.  The lone "positive" was that it led them to try to shift their focus to Central America. I got a very in depth account of the situation from people involved, it was brutal. They retained some scouts, but they shut down their year round academies for the most part.  

Dipoto traded away international money every year of his tenure in Anaheim. His purge of the scouting department on the heels of the Daniel BS, really set this franchise back, but he was able to benefit from the work Abe Flores had done in Central America before the purge.  Mostly it was an afterthought to him, he was busy trying to tear down everything that had existed prior to his hiring regardless of whether or not it meant firing capable people.

The single biggest factor in the Angels return to Latin America was simply time.  People didn't so much forget as they started to let it go.  Eppler jumped into it hard, he spent right up to the penalty figure every year he was in charge but there were a lot of lotto ticket types.. Truth is he may have offered more than he likely would have on the lower tier guys because he thought it may help smooth over the past -- he was also prohibited from signing anyone for more than 250K because of the Baldoquin idiocy ... but when push comes to shove it worked, he got the stink off the team in the eyes of the buscones and players alike. He also hired a few buscones he had relationships with while with the Yankees (partially due to Abe Flores who went to the Yanks after the purge), as scouts which went a long ways towards winning people over, particularly in Venezuela.

Perry has built on everything Eppler had started and likely fine tuned some things he may have been doing wrong.  Some of it won't show for a bit but he's added and added and added and the team will be better off for it.

The Clay Daniels shit-show may be the single biggest factor into why the Angels farm system dried up the way it did.  

It should piss Angel fans off.

I would love to meet up with you for a game (either here or at Ie) to discuss.

Let me be a bit more clear. Yes, the Angels did bad things. LOTS of organizations did bad things, and some did things that made us look like we were decent,. At that point, it was a wild place, and teams were doing all they could to milk a very cheap talent pool. 

What I have been told is that the Angels were made into an example, especially compared to other teams, and as a result, we shutdown all presence for a while (we did not HAVE to as much as we also chose to do so). That, combined with lost draft picks, really hurt. And Baldoquin, and others. Those two actions set our farm system back for a decade or more. 

Yez, Dipoto traded away international cash, because he couldn't get the money to develop a presence down there. Eppler did get more of an approval to invest there. And then they spent a lot on some guy named Ohtani, and traded to get more international money for him. But, Eppler xpent the max internationally. As has Perry.

The fact that Perry specifically talked about this at a Chalk Talk said a lot to me, reading between the lines, about how the Angels plan to move forward.

Personally, I'd like to see an international draft in reverse order of what a team spent on FAs. Highest spenders get the lowest interntionl draft picks. 

33 minutes ago, Blarg said:

It felt as though the last week of spring training Washington convinced himself Hicks was a #2 hitter and kept him there. It feels like he is deferring to veterans, creating a lineup to avoid growing pains, rather than simply using Hicks for what he was signed for, a 4th or 5th outfielder.

This season needs to be about Moniak and Adell finding their footing, not giving a cast-off veteran one more season. He should not have started, Schanuel should be in the #2 spot until he shows he can't handle it and Moniak and Adell should be the platoon players in right field, leaving Hicks the coverage when Trout or Ward are getting time off. 

I really don't care about the analytics when we are taking about a 34 year old that has a career 97 OPS+ resume. That very slim line of better than the unknown isn't reason enough to give him playing time over the two guys that should have a career ahead of them, if given the chance. If that means losing a few more games, it really won't change this season but it will change next season if those two aren't dialed in while Hicks scrapes for another bench job. 

I know everyone is dying for a winning season but I am looking for sustainable winning seasons and not this crap of hoping bare league average veterans can give you one more year of okay performance. 

Bkarg, 

You make great points. Agreed that Schanuel should be batting 2nd. While Hicks should leadoff when he is in the lineup, Rendon can leadoff until either he breaks down or Rada proves himself ready.

Ooening Day, I'm okay with Hicks in the lineup. The rest of the time, not so much. Baseball is a business, and winning early on is going to dictate a LOT of the fan experience and finances for the team, so, I get why they did what they did. Again, in an August game against Chicago, who cares, play the kids. 

I am NOT convinced that we are a playoff team. While anything can happen, my money is that it is a transitional year in which we are slightly above 500 (my prediction is an 82-80 season). That's a competitive team, just not a championship team. That's why I was okay with not signing the FAs, but also want the bas. eball people back in charge of things. What I did not like was the mixed messaging from the front office and owner. 

6 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

Great read and I agree the direction halos are going in. Season only 1 game old but I do hope Moniak and Adell get more AB than Hicks.

I don't see how playing Hicks yesterday deviated feom the plan. 

I love the nutswingers who have wanted to trade all offseason for Burns or wanted to sign him as a FA to be our ace, but he's so bad that we were supposed to best up on him when he pitched against us? 

Of course we are going to play a veteran against one of the best pitchers in the Majors over Adell or Moniak.

But, in August that may change, and I would expect Adell or Moniak to be the starter against a tough pitcher. 

While I like what Hicks brings to the team with his arm and bat, I think he could be traded if Adell or Moniak run with the opportunity. 

17 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

FWIW, not sure if it's still true or not but they had a larger number of scouts in Latin America than they did stateside.  Given the nature of scouting today and how much digital data there is via Rapsado (its cost has come down so much it's even in high schools now), it sort of made sense.

The other thing and I know you know this, is with buscones being how they are ... most of the best players are corralled into those development schools where they aren't really taught baseball so much as they are engineered to perform well in the measurable areas scouts tended to focus on... So getting people on the ground to watch how they are worked out is significantly more important IMO.   It's a huge talent pool of nearly free players that are massively underdeveloped when compared to similarly aged US players.  Smart teams are sending their best scouts to Latin America if for no other reason it's the easiest was to get talent into systems...also why you see teams with two LA teams in the DSL.

After getting busted in 2010 (we can debate the legitimacy of it), they basically shutdown all Latin scouting. Considering how many players in the Majors come feom Latin America, that was beyond a bad decision. 

DiPoto started to rebuild the Latin presence. Eopler built it more, and it seems that Perry is investing even more. 

Certain positions, such as catching, are better suited in many ways to coming from Latin America. One can never get enough Latin pitchers because pitching from all sources is necessary. 

So hearing Perry talk about getting more talent out of LTin America was a good thing. 

23 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Great read.... I still see nothing from Perry that they are increasing Latin America scouting... You mention it as more of a assumption on reading in-between the lines. By assumption of following the Braves blueprint.

Post something that Perry says international scouting will be increased or more prevalent.

All I see,  is a decrease in payroll at all levels from Players to Scouting and an increase in spending in the infrastructure of the SPT site Tempe Diablo... I could be incorrect?

Are they breaking ground on their own Academy? Or, Co-Opping with a few other teams? 

Obviously, the Pacific Rim scouting is/has-been  non-existent since Ohtani.

I like the hiring of Washington and the staff. And the direction at the Major League level coaching wise. I'm still wondering of the Minor League Development side and coaching at the lower levels. Drafting close to MLB level players is great if they can stay healthy, have a good mindset and understand the mental side of the game and understand they need a short mindset when physical errors, mental mistakes, poorly executed pitches happen. Because that's also part of the game. It's a huge turning point with young players. It's hard to learn and get this in the MLB vacuum. That's something taught in the Minors.

 

Thanks again Dave, great read !

During the Chalk Talk, Perry answered a question or two from Trent Rush talking about the incmvestment and development of international players and signings. He talked about the executives and scouts, how players like Rada and others are coming fom it, etc. 

Too bad that they, or I, didn't record it. But he did talk a bit about it. And the way he spoke about it, not just what he said, w

Is how I interpreted his GMSpeak.

18 hours ago, Chuck said:

Great insight into Perry’s chalk talk, David. 

Thanks Chuck! 

While I may never be healthy enough to work full time, I want to get back to representing the great website that you've built when I'm feeling good enough. 

11 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

Well done and provides the ideal road map for the Halos path back to relevance.   This piece will serve as a good benchmark for where many Angel fans are at going into the season and before the games start and life punches us in the mouth.   Any projections on how the team will react when things inevitably begin to go sideways?

Could you also post the thoughts from the 2023 Chalk talk?   It would also be an interesting read.

I can't remember, if due to my health at the time, if I attended that Chalk Talk

And if I did I probably didn't write up a summary like this, again due to my health. 

I am so glad that I'm doing better now. 

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

Good stuff, Dave. This lines up well with my "Taking Stock" post from a couple days ago.

You were absolutely spot on with your analysis and specically used the phrase taking stock"to pay homage to your piece!

If you attended the Chalk Talk, please post any comments and observations that you had. 

I thought that one of the best questions came from a fan who asked Perry to define success and if he thought the past few years were successful. 

Oh, this counts as 1.