GregAlso

There are a lot of unknowns in signing any player. Especially from Japan. But is he really worth what he will cost?
 
Answer: Yes.
 
While Tanaka's stuff isn't quite as good as fellow countrymen Yu Darvish or Dice-K, he has similar stuff. There are reservations about his ability to pitch from the stretch, and reservations about his somewhat flat, hittable fastball. 
 
What should calm those fears is his impeccable control, which should definitely translate. His secondary pitch and tertiary pitch are legitimate major league out pitches, something that Dice-K struggled with. He doesn't have a long delivery like Dice-K, and he doesn't throw as many pitches as Darvish, allowing him to pitch deep into games. He's like Dan Haren in that respect, and should throw into the seventh or eighth or ninth inning in every start. Can't say that about Matt Garza.
 
Also, while he throws four different pitches and experiments with a few others, his main two weapons are fastball-splitter. I am referencing an article from bleacher report on this, but he quoted a lot of sources that seem legit. 
 
So if he is a fastball-splitter type, he has more in common with Hisanori Iwakuma and Koji Uhera than the other two Japanese pitchers. I'm sure that there are American starters to which he has a lot of similar traits, it's often the case that we compare Japanese to Japanese, and that's not right, but in this case it's valid.
 
The conclusion drawn in the bleacher report article is that his splitter will be an absolute nightmare on lefty hitters, just as Iwakuma and Uhera have been. Mark Saxon said in an LA Times Article that Tanaka has the best splitter in the world, and while that may be an exaggeration, if it's true, he's worth every penny. 
 
We all saw the domination of Koji Uehera this year with the Red Sox once he started throwing that splitter for strikes. He also thrived in the closer role. 
 
Looking over the AL West, who are the best hitters?
 
Obviously Trout, Pujols, Hamilton on the Angels come to mind. The A's have Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss to go along with Cespedes and Jed Lowrie. The Rangers have new acquisition Prince Fielder to go with Adrian Beltre and may sign Shin-Soo Choo. The Mariners signed Cano, traded for Logan Morrison, signed Cory Hart and have Kyle Seager. The Astros have Castro, Carter, etc.
 
Most of those guys are left handed.
 
Also, did I mention he has a plus change-up?
 
The Angels need to sign a pitcher to take pressure off Santiago and Skaggs (as well as Richards) but a journeyman/#3/#4 starter is not the way to go. They don't have the assets to trade for David Price, who is a comparable pitcher to Tanaka if he translates well.
 
And to those who worry about his inning count, that's the nature of Japanese baseball. They also throw a ton of pitches between starts, though they don't make as many starts as their MLB brethren. 
 
Wouldn't you rather have a player who pitches into the 8th inning every start than barely giving you seven? With three young starters on the staff, the pen is going to get work but with a workhorse 25 year old slotting in at the #3 spot? I'm fine with that. And it's why the Angels should go full bore after the Japanese ace. 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Thanks Greg!

@JonHeymanCBS: #yanks planning to try for tanaka. it'll be tight squeeze to fit him under $189M threshhold. @JeffPassan: NYY is $178M now
@JonHeymanCBS: that $178M current yankees payroll, via @JeffPassan , does not include the 3B who's in limbo
FYI

What's crazy is Hamilton was more valuable to creating runs than Trumbo last year. Let that sink in... If Trumbo can fix the holes in his swing he can be valuable. Until then he is just an above league average player with big power. Was I the only watching Trumbo in August and September? His ABs were painful!
I see Pujols the last two years like people saw Ortiz a couple years back. Without their legs under them a hitter is powerless. From mid-May to August of 2012 Pujols was clicking at the plate.
As far as an emotional attachment to Trumbo by fans, how else do you explain the outrage over the trade expressed by fans? It was completely irrational and I could only describe it as an emotional reaction due to many other mitigating factors. Nearly every national writer and major sabermetric personality praised DiPoto for the trade, something they never do. Yet our fans freaked out over the "small return." That to me defines an emotional response as opposed to a factual, rational response.

What's crazy is Hamilton was more valuable to creating runs than Trumbo last year. Let that sink in... If Trumbo can fix the holes in his swing he can be valuable. Until then he is just an above league average player with big power. Was I the only watching Trumbo in August and September? His ABs were painful!
I see Pujols the last two years like people saw Ortiz a couple years back. Without their legs under them a hitter is powerless. From mid-May to August of 2012 Pujols was clicking at the plate.
As far as an emotional attachment to Trumbo by fans, how else do you explain the outrage over the trade expressed by fans? It was completely irrational and I could only describe it as an emotional reaction due to many other mitigating factors. Nearly every national writer and major sabermetric personality praised DiPoto for the trade, something they never do. Yet our fans freaked out over the "small return." That to me defines an emotional response as opposed to a factual, rational response.

Great stuff ettin!! I really enjoyed this piece. There is so much good data out there that just needs competent mining. You brought out some very pertinent info from raw data. Thanks.

What's crazy is Hamilton was more valuable to creating runs than Trumbo last year. Let that sink in... If Trumbo can fix the holes in his swing he can be valuable. Until then he is just an above league average player with big power. Was I the only watching Trumbo in August and September? His ABs were painful!
I see Pujols the last two years like people saw Ortiz a couple years back. Without their legs under them a hitter is powerless. From mid-May to August of 2012 Pujols was clicking at the plate.
As far as an emotional attachment to Trumbo by fans, how else do you explain the outrage over the trade expressed by fans? It was completely irrational and I could only describe it as an emotional reaction due to many other mitigating factors. Nearly every national writer and major sabermetric personality praised DiPoto for the trade, something they never do. Yet our fans freaked out over the "small return." That to me defines an emotional response as opposed to a factual, rational response.

What grade do you give a team tied for second best in the majors? Remember this is not compared to their potential and is only based on OPS+.
Glad you all enjoyed the piece. I too am baffled by Eppard being let go. Makes no sense to me.

Thanks for all of the hard work! Good stuff!

Nice job Geoff and thanks for the humor. Let's hope this is the new Angels Baseball team.

Maybe Bourjos is indeed the better defensive CF?
Maybe he shouldn't be traded?

Great article, Greg! 

Thanks guys!
I just hope this: "@PedroMoura: Omar Vizquel is back with the Angels as an infield instructor. Spent time with the club in spring training." Means the Angels are trying to address the defensive issues!

I don't even look at the standings or care if the Rangers or teams the Angels are chasing win or lose. 
 
To me, I'm entertained and completely satisfied watching exciting Angels Baseball. If they keep it up, all good things will come together for the good of all Angels fans.
 
We all expected these types of performances from the Angels out of the gate, but unfortunately it has taken this long for this super talented team to click.
 
Be that as it may, I don't care about April 1 - mid-May. The past is in my rearview mirror and postseason or not, I'll be satisfied from here on out as a fan if they play up to their abilities for the rest of the season. 

As a point of fact Vegas gives the Angels a 20% chance to make the playoffs. Heard that today. It ain't much but not out of it. Last year the Tigers had an 11-20 stretch and A's had a 10-21 stretch. Ours is just worse because we started the season this way. Check out me new InsideEsge piece on this site later today. Not all bad. May and June will tell the story.

The Angels will sweep.

For the first time the entire TEAM fired on all cylinders. 
 
Offense, Defense, Baserunning, Starting Pitching, Relief Pitching 
 
WIN! 
 
What a great game. I'm pumped. 

Nope, I don't think he was kidding. The question is are you? How many times will they both be on base at the SAME time. One with a .350 OBP and the other with maybe a .380 OBP. The both get on 3.5 times per ten ABs. So one of every 4 times they are on base together. Of those times how's by times will trout get an XBH that he could turn into a triple? 1 in 10? So about 2.5% of the time Iannetta COULD get in his way and for that you'll accept more outs, lower OBP with more ABs by leading off, in your lineup? Really?! I'll take fewer outs please. Additionally, for those who preach protection or the threat of Trout stealing giving hitters behind him better pitches read this quote: ""I don't think a team is going to worry about stopping the stolen base as much as getting Josh out," Scioscia said. "You can take advantage by stealing a base on an off-speed pitch, but they're going to pitch Josh how they need to pitch him. If you try to stop the stolen base you might have the ball hit in the stands."" Even if you don't like Scioscia you have to admit this is true. I'm sure he knows better than we do.

Looks like my wife and I will only be pre-partying from 5-6 as a friend of ours just invited us to the game on free tix!!

If you read the article about BABIP linked in the article, velocity has the least effect on it. First is movement then location then at the end is velocity, whose effect is minimal. Weaver, with deception, appears faster to hitters as well. This is because they pick up the ball later and have less time to recognize it. His biggest issue now is command (walks) and the homerun ball, also due to his command. If Weaver doesn't hit his spots he's done. His reduced velocity is probably due to his increased use of his sinker and cutter. Those are slower pitches than his 4-seamer.

Please check out my Inside Edge piece titled "Survival of the Fittest: Evolution of an Ace" for my full opinion. One thing to remember, Weaver is relying more on the sinker & cutter these days to create more movement. Those are slower pitches by nature and will produce slower FB velocity. Weaver's problem last night was fastball command. What turned him into an Ace was limiting free passes and keeping the ball in the yard. That is why he is bad in Texas, the ball jumps out of that park. He got killed by walking hitters last night. Velocity also increases in May and June, so let's wait and see.

Solid pitching performances against good hitting teams. I'm diggin it!

On like Donkey Kong. 

This is still happening, right? Looks like fun and I just RSVP'd for it.

This just means more Angels fans will be coming here or to other blogs for the news & discussion.
Without a doubt this is where many come for Angels news first if not Twitter or a blog like HH or MWAH.
Also, our website pulls info via an RSS feed from MLB.com (Alden Gonzalez), the LA Times (Mike DiGiovanna) and will still get a blurb from Jeff Fletcher's articles from the OC Register.