Troutstanding

Troutstanding, indeed!

Cool idea, I like it. 

14 minutes ago, aznhockeyguy said:

Seriously, when Ohtani pitches in AL parks, why not have him in the lineup as well just as if before the DH rule came into existence?  Is it because Scioscia doesn't want to give up the DH in the lineup?

It is that. It is also to let Ohtani focus solely on pitching on that day.

7 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I am curious, what is the average pitch count per inning?  I always thought it was around 15 which would take the pitcher 90 to complete six innings.  

I think I read once it's ~17

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Most of the time, a team's best hitter hits 3rd. Trout is the best hitter in baseball, hence the best hitter on the team.

I actually think in coming years, Ohtani will slot right between Trout and Upton in the #3 spot, as I expect him to be a great hitter, whereas as a pitcher, I don't know if he's going to be Darvish or better than Darvish or Dice-K or Shiggy. His stuff is unreal, true, and I think he's going to be a top pitcher. But I think he might be a great hitter as well.

So then in 2019 and/or 2020 you've got a leadoff guy, maybe Jam Jones at 2B? LOL, one can dream. Then Trout, Ohtani, Upton, Calhoun, then Pujols hitting 6th. Cozart would be next probably unless he's hitting to a .900 OPS again, in which case he'll be before Pujols and probably before Calhoun. Then Simmons hitting 8th, and Ward batting 9th?

 

 

 

Many teams still bat their best hitter 3rd, you're correct. But the fact that teams still do it that way doesn't mean that it is most optimal. Modern sabermetrics strongly suggest that the most important batting position order is number two followed by number four. Trout, being both a power hitter and an OBP machine, is the ideal fit for the two hole in any batting order on the planet. I actually would be intrigued to see how it went having him bat clean up but I'm hoping to have a full season of him in the two spot. 

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

We know he should be 3rd for the vast majority of the games

Nice post but who is this "we" you speak of? I've seen a lot of people who believe Trout impacts the team more batting 2nd than 3rd. I would rather have him bat 2nd, 4th, or 1st before third. 

Cozart is a 2 WAR player BEFORE his breakout season last year. This is the type of move we needed. 

What time is this gonna be?

Hi Chuck,

Don't forget I have a +1. 

I play on two men's softball teams and one co-ed team. If you would like me to invite them, I will. Just let me know.

I think OP means "Has Sosh ever let a pitcher talk him into letting him stay in the game?"

I love Trout as much as anyone and while he is an excellent defender, his defense has not been consistently top tier and probably never has or will be. I don't want to see Trout in LF but perhaps he would have a better shot at the award there.

Count me in for myself and one guest

2014 was probably the weakest of his career so the choice is an easy one.

(of course even his "weakest" season is far better than the best year of most players)

Batting Trout 2nd is not only to get him more AB's, but also because batting him third will bring him to the plate with none on and 2 outs more often than any other spot in the order. A batter with a low OBP but high slugging is suitable to plug here, not Trout. Trout's high OBP, high slugging combo is both rare and ideal for the two-hole, which is the most impactful spot in the order. 

Trout should bat 2nd. Whoever the second best batter on the team is should most likely hit fourth. Most likely the player with the highest OBP (aside from Trout) should bat lead off. Pujols should bat third or fifth if he's producing, and lower if he's not. 

29 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

There is no situation in which scoring one run is better than scoring multiple runs, which seems to be what you are suggesting.

better != more important

Trout’s 2016 numbers in standard statistics show a player that is significantly more valuable than Betts, though not by a huge degree. 
Trout: .315 / .441 / .550 = .991 OPS
Betts: .318 / .363 / .534 = .897 OPS
They are basically equal in batting average, which is a stat that has very little meaning when we have so many other things we can look at. Their slugging percentages are very similar, with Trout having a very small, but not worthless, lead. As James pointed out, Trout’s OBP is vastly superior to Betts, by a whopping 78 points! This is an absolutely huge difference. Mookie Betts made 86 more outs than Trout! 
So, that’s looking simply at a typical triple slash, which has its many flaws. Perhaps the biggest is that it does nothing to take into account these two very important factors. The first is that these old-fashioned stats do nothing to consider which parks a player plays in. These numbers also do nothing to provide context in any way, such as how a player’s team performed. 
For instance, let’s take a look at how these two star athletes would have performed when their park factors (as in, which parks they played in over the course of the year) are taken into account. As you may know, Betts plays in a very hitter friendly park, while Trout plays in a somewhat pitcher friendly park. OPS+ is just like OPS but it considers park factors and puts the number on a scale with 100 is average. If you’re OPS+ is greater than 100, your above average. Lower than 100, you’re below average in OPS+. 
OPS+
Trout: 173
Betts: 131
This is the difference between a great offensive season, and an elite one. 
Now, for my favorite way to show how much more valuable a player Trout was in 2016 than Betts, let’s neutralize their statistics in the sense that we’re going to put each of them on a completely average team in a completely average park. With this team neutralization, Trout now has the upper hand in virtually every category, which creates a rather dramatic split shown below. 
Team and park neutralized slash lines:
Trout:
.333 / .461 / .583 = 1.044 OPS
Betts:
.317 / .362 / .534 = .896 OPS
Now of course offense isn’t the only important way to evaluate a player. Defense is vital, and base running is also important. Problem is that defensive metrics are not very meaningful over the course of one season. The general consensus is that it takes about three season’s worth of data for them to become more usable. In any case, if we use Wins Above Replacement, which factors in defense and base running, we’ll still see Trout with a significant lead.
bWAR:
Trout: 10.6
Betts: 9.6
fWAR:
Trout: 9.4
Betts: 7.8
The two versions of WAR use different formulas. Betts had a far superior defensive WAR to Trout, but it’s challenging at best to gauge how accurate that is. It may be accurate, but it is known that single-season dWAR totals are fluky. 
According to Fangraphs, Betts had the slightly superior base running score:
Trout: 9.3
Betts: 9.8
Given neutral teams, the change in win probability given by a batter:
Win Probability Added:
Trout: 6.5
Betts: 3.1
Betts had an absolutely outstanding season, which helps illustrate just what kind of player Mike Trout is, since his season was a lot better than Bett’s. Of course there are many, many more statistics to compare the two. Any way you look at it, Trout is clearly deserving of the award, as no other player, including Betts, came even remotely close to his performance, and thus his value, playoff contention be damned.

2016: 12-12 5.06 ERA 178 IP 5.62 FIP 1.46 WHIP
 

I am a Jered Weaver fan and think his extension and career as a Angel were great things but any amount the Angels pay above the league minimum for that production next year is a waste. 

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

How in the world does he have a .565 slugging percentage

Trout.

10 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Betts is killing it the last week. Meanwhile Trout is still scuffling. 

Mike Trout's last 7 games: .304/.500/.565. I'd love to see how he does when he's on a tear if this is him scuffling.

1 minute ago, ScottyA_MWAH said:

Remember, spending on free agents isn't evil.  Spending not he wrong free agents is.  With an understanding of our farm system, and how prospects should develop, signing a free agent in the 2-4 year range that can accumulate 2-4 wins per year would be a wise team investment  if we operate under the assumption that this will cost 10-15 million per year.  It boosts the offense and defense, bridges the gap between now and when Thaiss, Hermosillo, Jones and Marsh arrive, and won't eliminate the Angels from being major players in free agency.

Fowler really seems like he'd be the perfect sort of move the Angels could make both right now and in the future. 

I agree. 

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

Kinda. That is based on the market prices, which are enormously inflated. But really, it bothers me on principle. If you have to spend $15-20M for 2-3 WAR players (Fowler and Reddick), it means there's something signficantly wrong with your organization. A strong organization with a healthy farm doesn't have to dole out those sorts of contracts for average plus players. They can find those type of players within and save their money on extending their young stars and filling in holes from outside.

You're well within your rights to disagree with what the market has more or less determined a player is worth. 

Regardless of there being something wrong with any given organization, most if not all teams would benefit from a 2-3 WAR player at least one spot in their order. Especially when that player (Fowler) plays a position of need and possesses a skill set of particular use (OBP).

How is this proposed contract to Fowler any different than "filling in holes from outside"?

11 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

OK, just read through the article. I like Fowler but don't see the Angels shelling out $60 million for ages 31-34 of a 3-win player. Fowler is a good player, but he's really not much more than above average--similar to Calhoun, actually. He's having a career year, with 4.5 fWAR, and was at 3.2 last year, but never above 2.3 in any previous year. Again, he's a solid player, but $15M a year? I don't see it.

As for Steve Pearce, he isn't really a second baseman. He's a platoon 1B/OF/DH type whose played 2B and 3B in a pinch, but very poorly. A good bat but not a good fit for the Angels.

 

$15m/year for 2-3 WAR is a bargain.

6 minutes ago, ScottyA_MWAH said:

defensive specialist

An insult to Simmons. 

Defense is just as sexy as offense to me.