Pancake Bear

He’s not coming back for 4 million or less. A 4th OF for more is poor cap management. I’d prefer to grab Zobrist who can back up any position and is still a batter bat than Kole and will likely cost quite a bit less also.

FWIW, Bowden wasn’t really too high on last years free agents. He was actually low on Corbin. But, like wopphil said, we don’t really know. His projections for Cole and Strasburg seem a bit high to me. I can’t see Cole getting the aav record if he insists on 8 years. If he wants to beat Greinke’s 34aav, he won’t get that with 8 years, IMO.

The QO is difficult for guys like Odorizzi. It’s going to cut into his value, but one year at his age isn’t ideal either. He may not be able to cash in next season if he has a down year.

Kole will get more, but he’ll probably max out at 10. Multiple years will lower it, IMO.

Kiley’s predictions on Cole and Stras match mine, so obviously he’s totally correct.

8 years is possible. 36aav might be. Both? I guess, but it takes teams bidding there to get to that point. Comparing Cole to the big 3 SP contracts signed recently, though, suggested to me that most estimates are low, and 7yr, 245 could be low. Strasburg? I don’t see any way he makes that much.

Well, I mean, the Stros already traded for Greinke.

Trout loses to Kiermaier.

Follow-up question: How many pitchers on the Angels this season realistically could or should be expected to regress? i genuinely can’t think of anyone. The only thing I can think of is Skaggs was okay in he first half of the season. Aside from that, I don’t see anyone who really overperformed what they might be reasonably expected to do in 2020. Maybe Buttrey and Robles?

Results ongoing right now. Fletcher lost to Chapman (no surprise). Ditto Simmons v. Lindor. Neither played enough time at their position to be a likely winner. No word yet on Calhoun (unlikely to win) or Trout yet, though.

Calhoun had 108 wRC+. Not bad, but not extraordinary either. His defense might be difficult to replace, but overall value? No. Both FG and BR had him around 2.5 WAR in 2019. Goodwin wouldn't be worth that much less if he played a full season. If Adell is ready in 2020 (which is the only way they bring him up), he should easily be worth that, imo.

Good write-up. Like I've been saying every time someone says the Yanks and Dodgers will be in a bidding war for Cole: People aren't paying attention. Neither team has shown willingness recently to go that big or that desperate. That could always change - and as you pointed out, they could both definitely afford it - but so far, no sign of that. And for my money, why should they? Both barely missed out this year. Between LA, Washington, NY, and Houston, it wouldn't have taken much going differently to see any one of them winning it all. Houston will lose their (arguably) best pitcher. Washington may lose one of their top two. That drops them down to NY and LA's level. Why would you do a 7 year deal that could handcuff your franchise for years to come unless you have to? That's why I seriously doubt that either will. It just doesn't make sense for either unless desperation overrides good judgment.

This is why I’m semi-bullish on both and reluctant to let either go. That’s around 8-9 WAR, realistically. Hard to replace. Those two were a big part of why 2019 sucked.

I believe I will be right. Unless I'm wrong. And if the only thing that avoids offending people is talking about facts, maybe stick with news articles and avoid message boards.

Mike Mayers also. More than that do-nothing Dipoto has done so far.

You're low. Try 60m - that's around how much he'd get on the open market. Given how much the Nats defer money in contracts, they can afford it, too.

Regardless of posturing, I don’t believe Cole wants to play back East, nor do I believe the Yankees will go 7 years on a pitcher (maybe not even 6 - they refused to go 6 for Corbin). Unless they have a significant philosophy shift, the Yankees will pursue someone like Wheeler, not Cole. (Note. I’m not saying they won’t go through the motions, but I don’t think Cashman or Steinbrenner are cool with 7 years for a pitcher.)

No sleeveless. The late 80’s early 90’s with red and blue secondaries on the white were cool though. Just don’t go back to the late 90’s monstrosities that Disney put out. Those were awful.

I think I might take the over on 60m, personally, if we’re making predictions on those three. Certainly not much under if it is at all. Pitching always costs more than I expect it will.

I have no doubt Strasburg’s preference is to stay in DC. I heard he just moved his family into a new home there last year. That said, if they lowball him, all bets are off. And with Lerner’s love of deferred money on long term deals, it’s possible he ends up walking.

I assumed since 2019 was weighted strongest that Betts would be lower.

Well, the last four (after Trout) are pretty easy to guess now, if not the order.

Ordinarily I wouldn’t either. But Grandal has been really good. His flexibility to DH and play 1B if his ability to continue as catcher diminishes makes the risk worth it. He’s the only position player I would say makes sense for us to pursue. But obviously that’s secondary to pitching. I won’t be devastated if we don’t sign him, but I’d be pleased if we did.

I think it was inferred by reporters on the scene when he spoke about raising payroll. I haven’t seen an explicit quote.

1. Sign at least one pitcher 2. Acquire a catcher 3. Win more than one game That better?