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Pancake Bear

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Everything posted by Pancake Bear

  1. Yep. Either is possible. But for the moment, I’ll stick with what seems most likely to me. I could definitely be wrong. That’s nothing new, though.
  2. When payroll has fluctuated between 170-180 million, 5 million isn’t really an increase. If that’s it, it’s hardly worth saying, “Payroll is going up.” 10 million would pass the test of the quotation, but barely. It’s an increase, but hardly something worth making a quote over. 15 isn’t an unreasonable assumption based on Arte’s statement. It could be more, it could be less, but it’s hardly beyond reason to speculate with that number in mind.
  3. It’s a fair guess. My thinking is that Betts has had a better career to date than either Machado or Harper. I think 400 is probably a stretch, but it’s not outside the range of possibility.
  4. I wouldn’t. We couldn’t afford Cole or any other good pitcher if we did that. We need Adell, even though he almost certainly won’t be as good as Betts, because he’s cheap. Unless Arte commits to a massive payroll raise, the money just doesn’t work. Throwing in two more pitchers makes it worse. In a different roster position, yeah, I’d probably do that deal if we could re-sign him. As the team and payroll are currently situated? I don’t even think twice about passing on that.
  5. The Angels have turned out to be the mystery team more than once.
  6. What concerns me is if Boras and Cole are set at 8 years *and* the aav high (around 34 currently on longer term deals) and refuse to budge off either until January or later when they end up backing down because no one will give both.
  7. Note the reply from Shaikin: The Dodgers will not be signing Cole. It. Will. Not. Happen. Probably not the Yankees either, although I’m not quite as bullish there, but is put it at a low 5% or less chance of happening.
  8. At the risk of being disrespectful, I think you’re wrong on this whole post. First, Hamilton was signed in 2013. Arte bought the team in 2003. He wasn’t making a statement signing. He signed Pujols the year before. Greinke was traded for during the season before that and after the season it became clear that Arte and/or Dipoto weren’t prepared to spend as much as Greinke would receive. So Arte pivoted to Hamilton. On Greinke, that isn’t how I recall his trade going. My recollection is that they were in the race until the very end of the season and came up short of the Wild Card late. I don’t recall a Greinke or Texeira having an anywhere-but-Anaheim attitude. Texeira was in negotiations to stay here and Arte thought they had a deal. Turned out, we were just being used as a negotiation tactic by Boras to raise the price in NY - where Tex’s wife wanted to be. Greinke, I believe we hoped to re-sign him until Dipoto realized how much he would cost, but I could be wrong on that. And on Cole, pay attention to how the Dodgers have been run since Friedman came over. They don’t actually care about the Angels. They certainly won’t bid just to raise the price for us. Why? Because we aren’t their rival even if some Angels fans think they are. You don’t understand the Dodgers at all.
  9. Just want to throw out there something I noticed on the mlbtr predictions article: "We haven’t seen a significant eight-year contract for a pitcher since Mike Hampton signed with the Rockies 19 years ago." Given how cautious teams are these days compared to previous years, I'm highly skeptical that changes this offseason. Could it happen? Yeah. But it still feels like a stretch.
  10. Signing Castro seems pointless to me, but I'm not going to pretend to know much about catchers. Seems like a basically random prediction. I don't really have a problem with Miley. He put up 167 innings in 33 starts last year at a 3.98 ERA. While that might not look all that impressive, all three of those numbers are better than any qualified starter on the team last year. If we got Cole (which, in their prediction, we did), that would put us at: Cole, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Miley. I'd prefer another legit option, or Miley as the third signing (40m between him and Cole in their prediction would allow us to grab another pitcher instead of Castro at around 15ish, maybe).
  11. Exactly. And this is why the Yankees, Dodgers, and Astros will not sign him. They don’t need to and they aren't desperate enough to make that risky of a move. Yes, there is a lot of risk involved. But we have no pitching. Going cheap won’t actually fix the problem. We have to take that shot and hope it works out, because there is no other option that gets us back to the postseason.
  12. He makes a good point on the fact that a significant portion of the top free agents are Boras-represented guys. I wonder if that means the whole trade season will stretch late.
  13. Note. The poll is not: What is your prediction. The question is: What's your max? Where do you drop out if it exceeds the number you voted for?
  14. We've had predictions from MLB Trade Rumors, The Athletic (Bowden), and Fangraphs over the last few days. The totals predicted on those articles has elicited some interesting responses. Most of us hope the Angels sign Gerrit Cole, but I'm seeing some responses that indicate a clear line in how far people are willing to go in signing him to a contract. So here's the poll: At what point do you walk away and pursue someone else? I didn't include aav because that seems harder to poll and probably less relevant. If it's important to you, feel free to comment on that (or anything else related) below. I'm mostly all in, personally. I don't like the idea of 8 years, but if someone else has 8 years on the table and he comes to us if we match, I probably do it. My prediction at the moment is 7 years and 245 million (35 aav). Anything over that I wouldn't be crazy about, but I'd stretch that a little if necessary. If it goes much over 250, I think I vote for dropping out. But, honestly, I don't see anyone spending that much.
  15. Okay, I’m good with not paying anyone 430m. Next question?
  16. So no one should ever have a higher aav than Trout? Or is it just too soon? Trout’s extension was for 12 years - that shifts the aav lower than a 7yr contract does. I don’t see a major issue with it, personally.
  17. He’s not coming back for 4 million or less. A 4th OF for more is poor cap management. I’d prefer to grab Zobrist who can back up any position and is still a batter bat than Kole and will likely cost quite a bit less also.
  18. FWIW, Bowden wasn’t really too high on last years free agents. He was actually low on Corbin. But, like wopphil said, we don’t really know. His projections for Cole and Strasburg seem a bit high to me. I can’t see Cole getting the aav record if he insists on 8 years. If he wants to beat Greinke’s 34aav, he won’t get that with 8 years, IMO.
  19. The QO is difficult for guys like Odorizzi. It’s going to cut into his value, but one year at his age isn’t ideal either. He may not be able to cash in next season if he has a down year.
  20. Kole will get more, but he’ll probably max out at 10. Multiple years will lower it, IMO.
  21. Kiley’s predictions on Cole and Stras match mine, so obviously he’s totally correct.
  22. 8 years is possible. 36aav might be. Both? I guess, but it takes teams bidding there to get to that point. Comparing Cole to the big 3 SP contracts signed recently, though, suggested to me that most estimates are low, and 7yr, 245 could be low. Strasburg? I don’t see any way he makes that much.
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