Pancake Bear

Hey guys, I found Arte’s burner account.

Cole will cost more than a hundred million more than Wheeler. Highest projections I’ve seen for Wheeler are around 100 million. About the lowest for Cole are around 225.

The first quotes you. I didn’t ask who’d been better to date. I questioned whether Sale is better now. Even if Sale is healthy, that’s highly debatable.

Suarez was one of the youngest starters in the majors last year and wasn’t even supposed to be in the majors in 2019 at all.

Except that the Angels are expected to be one of if not the highest bidder. If they give him an ultimatum: We’re moving on unless we settle this soon, it might push Scotty to pressure any other teams who are in the neighborhood financially as far as what they’re willing to offer. Losing one of his top options too early could screw Cole’s market.

Just remember that guys who are heavily reliant on L/R splits are less valuable now that we have a 3 batter minimum for relievers in 2020. So, no more LOOGY’s.

I mean, we can always improve, but Eppler seems to find better arms on the wire than what he spends money on. Relievers are absurdly volatile. Teams that spend on them seem to invariably end up wasting money.

I don’t want them to spend money on a reliever.

If the vote had happened this week instead of pre-playoffs, he wouldn’t have gotten any first place votes, except maybe from Houston writers.

The second question on the mlbtr chat is interesting. What 'Dan' is missing is that NY didn't *need* Corbin, thus they didn't pony up the extra year and dollars that the Nats were willing to. We could debate whether the Nats needed to either, but even with Corbin they were below the Yankees. Ditto Harper and the Cubs (that was a thing?) - they had no urgent need for him, so why would they throw 330 million his way? The Angels have the need (rather, the dearth), the desperation, and the money to make it happen. Unlike Corbin, Cole isn't committed to the east coast and has good reason to be willing to come here. That doesn't mean he's set on coming here, it means unlike a lot of free agents, he has no reason to not want to be on the west coast. CB on the chat gets it, though.

If AP is very important, Thaiss must be absolutely essential.

We have a 26th spot on the roster. If Maddon and Pujols can agree that he is better served as a bench player (part timer only at 1B, DH, and PH), we could still carry him without issue. Unfortunately, I don’t know that Albert believes that and I’m skeptical that Maddon does or that the team would force the issue until they’re genuinely competing and he’s a significant liability. A guy like Albert can’t just be benched without a major issue.

Dunno how realistic change is at 1B, unfortunately.

Dunno how this relates to two-way players.

FWIW, the Angels ranked 11th at BRef on 2B and 12 on FG.

Fair, but the reason I'm including his overall total is because it isn't 1 position we're looking at ultimately, it's 2. Both La Stella and Fletcher play the two positions. That's why it's relevant.

NM, I see what you're looking at. Here's the reason for that: Thaiss, Cozart, Cowart, and Ward combined for around 235 PA. Only Thaiss is likely to see much playing time this year unless we have more health issues. See the comparison of our depth chart on the infield I made above.

I think you're looking at the wrong thing again. Admittedly, I don't know how to find that info on BR, so I could be wrong on that.

Name Age WAR 2019 HR AVG OBP OPS OPS+ wRC+ Moustakas 31 3.2, 2.8 35 254 329 845 114 113 La Stella 31 1.5, 2.0 16 295 346 832 119 122 Fletcher 25 3.8, 3.4 6 290 350 734 97 99 Rengifo 22 1.6, 1.2 7 238 321 685 84 86 WAR is bWAR followed by fWAR. I'm including Rengifo because he is our backup 2B, who would lose playing time if Moustakas was brought in. As you can see, Moustakas is as old as La Stella and well older than our other infield options. He's better offensively than all but La Stella, but it's worth noting that his OPS+ was only 107 in 2018, and his wRC+ was 105. That's barely above average. BRef gives him more credit for his defense than FG does. But in either case, he's about equal to La Stella this season on BRef and worse on FG. Fletcher beats him cleanly in both, despite his superior offense (also, Fletcher fits Maddon's play style better - more station to station, less power focus). Moustakas has a mediocre average and league average (I think?) OBP. La Stella and Fletch are above average in both. Moustakas hits for better power. Although OPS+ and wRC+ (all around batting stats) both give the offensive edge to La Stella (admittedly, in only half a season). Rengifo is obviously worse, but at age 22 with better defense, I'd still take Rengifo as a backup than Moustakas as a starter because Rengifo has room to improve. Moustakas probably doesn't. Moustakas is estimated to receive anything from 10m (MLBTR) to 16m (FG) on a multiyear deal. Hard pass.

I'm still not sure what you're looking at, but this is Fangraphs on the top 15 teams at 3B. I'm not sure how to check that info at Baseball Reference, but based on other stuff I'm checking, I don't think your numbers are accurate. In a minute, I'll post a quick comparison of the players in question to demonstrate again that Moustakas is a downgrade for us.

How so? Fletcher is worse offensively, but his defensive value (and especially cost) puts him well ahead of Moustakas. La Stella was just as good as Moustakas last season in the amount of time he played. And again, he costs nothing. Run the numbers. Moustakas is not an upgrade. If you think he is, please demonstrate specifically how he improves the team.

Simmons also. He was a five win player two years before last season where he was injured half the year. 2018 was his best offensive season. Either way you think of it, he’s looking at a solid 2 win upgrade.

First, where did you get your number? Per Fangraphs, we were 12th with a 4.2 WAR. It would’ve been higher if La Stella hadn’t been injured and we weren’t playing Thaiss there as much. Second, Moustakas is a worse player than either Fletcher or La Stella and he’s on the wrong side of 30. He fills no hole at all that I can see. What am I missing?

... La Stella? I got nothing.