Junkballer

26 minutes ago, Jason said:

I honestly don't see Kershaw ever pitching for a team other than the Dodgers in his career 

Maybe so but he'll have to give a hometown discount to stay with the dogs.  He'll get better offers elsewhere.

9 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Fletcher was in a weak lineup and had an end of season slump. With return of Trout and Rendon he will become a better hitter

He's not going to get better pitches to hit because Trout/Rendon are back.  He is, at the plate, who he is, a streaky slap hitter with below average strike zone discipline.  The only way he becomes a better hitter is to become more selective and draw more walks.  The thing is that he's tried that before and it didn't work out so well so he went back to his natural approach.

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

I'm not a dodger fan but they have very few questions. They already have set lineup without Seager or Chris Taylor. Without Scherzer or Kershaw have 2 aces top of rotation. Plus they do not care about lux tax. They raise ticket prices every year so fans pay tax for them. Bauer who knows what will happen. 

We really don't know if this was just a go-for-broke year in a luxury tax cycle strategy.  We will know more when we find out if the new CBA wipes the slate clean or not, and the Dodgers become a year 0 tax offender or if they are subject to 2nd year penalties.  If the tax threshold doesn't go down and this year's tax counts against consecutive year penalties, they could stay under the cap in 2022..

1 hour ago, Duren, Duren said:

Maybe Albert goes straight to Arte's box and doesn't miss a year without a paycheck from him. Not baseball money,  but Arte's been very very good to him. And will be so indefinitely.

Pujols comes in trollin'

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

The owner's initial offer that was leaked says they were going to decrease the luxury tax line and there's no way the players go for that. Even in exchange for a salary floor. In the NBA the players are granted a significant but specific share of league revenues, I could see the owners agreeing to this, but only on ticket sales and media contracts.

The owners have been pretty vigilant in protecting one of the main benefits of having a legal monopoly, not having to open their books.  Anything's possible but that seems like a line in the sand for them even if it is clearly defined as pertaining to gate and media.  They likely view at as a slippery slope.

11 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Bundy or Heaney is never a better option even with Semien and a starter like Stroman.

What would Stroman as the only major addition to the rotation look like:

Stroman
Cobb
Ohtani
Sandoval
Suanders
Detmers

Still a little underwhelming to me.

If they did actually get a guy like Stroman, that would be an amazing outlier for this org and not something that should be legitimately expected.  If it does happen, expectations for that second FA arm should be pretty low, as in, probably wont happen.  There's no way around depending on the health of Ohtani and having Sandoval & Suarez provide a ton of good innings.  The bulk of their improvements will be in the continued development of young SPs, OFs Marsh & Adell, improved defense at SS and will largely hinge on how they cobble together an effective bullpen. 

8 hours ago, Duren, Duren said:

A Dodger team with a healthy roster might have been tougher, but that's part of the game. 

It's a shame their budget didn't allow them to build a deeper roster.

27 minutes ago, Taylor said:

This is hilarious. But where are the dog's hind legs?

Only Sweet Connie knows.

On 10/20/2021 at 1:44 PM, Revad said:

 Fans in Boston appear to be like fans in CA.  

Except perpetually shitfaced in public.

25 minutes ago, PattyD22 said:

And don’t forget it’s a “mute” point not a moot point.

Sorry Patty D but..

https://www.grammarly.com/blog/moot-point/

19 hours ago, Taylor said:

Colloquialisms can be excused on a message board.

But these grammar faux pas are unforgivable, regardless of platform:

• Mixing up its/it's or your/you're
• Saying "irregardless" or "oftentimes"
• Adding an apostrophe for a plural: "Baseball's are flying out of the park" or "Go Angel's!"
 

There are a few more but I can't think of them right now.

Please add the following misspelled phrases to the list.

-for all intensive purposes (intents and)

-shoe in (shoo)

13 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Bingo. Offering a QO is not about trying to to sign him to a 1/$18m. 
It gives an advantage to the offering team in negotiating and dulls competing interest.

I’m on board with giving him a QO as well as offering him the higher end of the hypothetical contract range. I’d posit that with their projected offense their need for a formidable bullpen is at least as important as their rotation, which does not need a lot to be upper 1/3rd. The rotation needs two #2’s, or #3’s with upside and now you’re looking at Sandoval/Suarez as 4/5.  If they don’t spend big on SS there is money for the bullpen and rotation.  
 

One of my concerns is that it is KJansens FA year and the Dodgers will spend whatever it it takes to get that elite closer.  The draft pick they’ll lose in a QO situation is a de facto 3rd and with their farm the way it is it won’t be that big of an issue for them. The Angels will have to consider going way above their comfort level to retain him if he rejects the QO. 

3 hours ago, Tank said:

 

it doesn't matter how "miniscule" the number is - it'll always be too many.

While that is true philosophically, when it comes to doing something about it, we as Americans have to factor in how much we value liberty and the consequences of allowing government to curtail liberty for all when it is the few that is irresponsible.  I'm talking about giving government more intrusive authority, not sensible proactive educational promotion. 

I have a child and grandchildren and I pray for their safety daily, but they are ultimately in God's hands.  Maybe in the throes of grief I would seek to alleviate my pain by seeking to curtail the liberty of all, including the responsible, but hopefully I would hold on to my faith that God restores all things and continue to value liberty.

8 minutes ago, cals said:

Ban malt liquor.

Except Mickey's. An old school suburban favorite.

17 minutes ago, mtangelsfan said:

Fair enough, but in your perfect world what would you do?
 

Lost in those numbers is the perspective of how little of any of that occurs as compared to total alcohol consumption.  With 331m adults in this country, if they consumed alcohol twice a week on average, thats almost 35 billion drinking days.  Compare that to the total number of these types of incidents and I think it will be miniscule.  

Whenever someone brings up national or local problems of some sort or the other I tend to ask, "what would be more effective, making new laws or more vigorously enforcing the laws already in place?".  Most times the clear answer is the latter.

10 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Seeing this for the hundredth time with dodger fans and roberts.

Dodgers pitching is shot right now. Its not like he has a ton of options. And its not like the offense is crushing.

Still crazy to me that a team w scherzer, bueller and urias is about to get knocked out, and had to go 5 games before this. 

Rank and file dodger fans are behind the curve in understanding how much autonomy the manager has.  The Alston/Lasorda days are forever gone.  I doubt if Roberts has any say on starters/openers and likely has a matrix on relief situations.  Atlanta bats are so hot right now so hard to tell, but I do think that Friedman and co. have opened themselves up to some legitimate criticism.

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Rosario es en fuego, 10 hits already in 4 games.   Just gift wrap the NLCS MVP.

Braves pen = normal wear and tear.

Dogs pen = nearing the end of a marathon.

Dogs fan, don’t even start about missing Muncy!   Braves have been without Soler and his .882 OPS after being acquired.

Not bad for spending 120m less on payroll

So Swanson is being repurposed, not fired.  Unless he is given duties that he considers a promotion or desirable lateral move, he may decide to move on, but that hasn't happened yet.

40 minutes ago, totdprods said:

If the Angels feel they need to spread money around, I like the idea of locking in someone like DeSclafani around 3/$30m and Rodriguez around the 4/$64m-5/$85m range.
This gives them some room to re-sign Iglesias, a reliever or two, maybe some solid help at SS by way of Chris Taylor or Jonathan Villar.

I know neither of them have quite the upside and could very well fall into mediocre contract pitching range, but both should be much better than the one-year rebound vet approach often taken. 
Either contract would be affordable enough that there's flexibility to trade them mid-deal (either as sellers or if there's need to clear room for a youngster) and would maintain overall payroll flexibility as we figure out future contracts for Ohtani, Adell, Marsh, Stassi, or other needs as they come up. 

Ray, Rodon, Gausman...all of that feels like Patrick Corbin all over again. Very good pitchers, would be huge adds, but there's not the track record there for me to feel comfortable if they approach the 6/$150m mark. That's a lot of money and a lot of time, especially when in 1-3 years we should see a lot of internal growth starting to cross the rotation threshold between Bush, Bachman, Marceaux, Daniel, Detmers, etc. We are closer than we realize to having the pipeline for young pitching, and blocking it up could be detrimental. In addition, as 2022 plays on, we should still continue to see development across the minors that boosts trade value...Jordyn Adams, Knowles, any of our shortstops, a lot of young arms...it's reasonable to think come deadline 2022, the Angels could offer up a really nice package for someone like a Luis Castillo, German Marquez, Jack Flaherty, or another arm that gives us #1-#2 production like a Ray, Rodon, Gausman, Scherzer, but without the $25m-$35m salary attached, and having that financial flexibility will be huge as Upton drops off next season and we weigh out what to do about Ohtani.

The biggest issue with DeSclafani and Rodriguez is will they receive QOs. It's possible both do, and it's possible both accept, but if not, not sure either are quite worth losing a pick over, then I think someone like Stroman + Cobb becomes the next combo to consider. Should come out to around the same money, neither with a QO.

Finally got around to looking up Rodriguez's stats and I did notice that compared to Desclafani, he is younger, had lower FIP/xERA than his ERA would suggest and his BABIP is much higher than career norms which seems to point to being unlucky and the quality of the BSox defense.  Desclafani on the other hand has higher FIP/xERA, and lower BABIP which leads me to believe he is benefiting a lot from being on the Giants not to mention being in the NL.  Of the two it seems that Rodriguez may be a better bet to replicate success migrating to the Angels.

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Teams with mediocre rotations get away with a ton by having deep bullpens.  

A few years ago we saw epic playoff battles between WAS and HOU.  It made everyone feel like you had to have 3 TOR starters to win.  

We're almost to the point where bullpens are pitching the same amount of innings as starters.  Not quite, but close.  It used to be 3 or 4 to 1 ratio.  

The cost per inning of a starter has become so high versus that of a reliever that you have to do the math and determine where the value is.  I think leverage is of tremendous importance and undervalued as well.  Shortening games at a fraction of the cost is huge.  How much more does it cost to get a starter that averages a 3.8 era and 6.1 innings per start versus that of a starter who has a 4.3 era in 5 innings and a two to three relievers that have a 3.5 era for 1 inning every other or third game?  

AND you can grab like 9 relievers who might be able to do that and figure out pretty quick which 3 or 4 can at almost no cost.  Or you can draft 20 pitchers who profile to do that in the future and have an entire renewable stable of them.  

And openers aren't the devil.  

just for kicks, here's another reason to understand how WAR works and know where the nits are even though it's of use.  The Angels had the 8th best pen by WAR but 21st by WPA (which tells you what happened and accounts for leverage).  Why?  Because the Angels had one really good pen arm and the rest was meh at best.  Every other guy we carted out in reasonably high leverage wasn't very good.  

Bullpens are all about depth.  You don't even need to have a very good closer if you got six other guys to get you there.  It's nice but not that critical.  

Imagine 5-6 guys out of your pen that give you about 300-350 innings.  The Angels had about 650 innings from their pen this year and about 775 from their starters.  So imagine that half of your pen innings came at a level commensurate with 2-3 starters who functions as a 1/2/3 in the rotation?  What would it cost to get those 6 or maybe even 7 guys versus that spend on getting those three guys for your rotation? 

Wow, a lot of food for thought here.  It's helpful to be reminded that there are other ways of building a competitive club than focusing on names and making them saviors.  What came to mind for me was @Angelsjunky's thread (link below) which makes a good companion piece to your post.  With value and asset allocation in mind, and remembering that they have a solid #2 in Ohtani (#1 except for innings pitched) I'd rather the Angels obtain a #3 with #2 upside and create a deep formidable bullpen than crazyspend on a #1 at the expense of the bulllpen.  I don't know who those bullpen names should be outside of Iglesias, but memories of having a Shields caliber setup man for K-Rod causes me to hope Minasian is up to the task of building that bullpen back end.

2 hours ago, Slegnaac said:

Shades of Fletcher 

Except about 300' further.

37 minutes ago, Hubs said:

4/75 will get you literally no-one in the top three tiers. Maybe Syndergaard or Jon Gray or DeScalifini.

Exactly, that is my prediction, that they get someone in that range AND Cobb.  I don't see them going high AAV or term.  They just drafted/signed 20 pitchers.  With Sandoval/Suarez looking promising, they just want to get over the hump and ride Ohtani and another solid starter until then.

39 minutes ago, Hubs said:

In regards to Scherzer, I'd give the presumptive NL Cy Young Winner 3/100 33M per with a 1M signing bonus. I'd give him an option for 2025 too at the same rate. He is the guy that isn't aging, and he's been one of the top pitchers in the league for nearly a decade now. Maybe you structure it with deferrals, he is willing to take them as evidenced by his deferrals with the Nationals. Or you go 20/25/35 with a 5M signing bonus and a 15M buyout or 35M option for year four.

And you don't think that a more attractive team (to Scherzer) wont beat that?  The Dodgers are just one team of several that will surely top that.

44 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Stroman is gonna get 7 years. Ray is likely to get 6. Gausman likely gets 6.

Gray can be had for a 4 year deal. Cobb on a 2 year deal. And Lorenzen/Richards would be minor league or very small one year contracts.

Between Stroman and Gray, I go Gray and the shorter term but would be happy if they got Stroman.  Who wouldn't?  Pass on Ray & Gausman.

I feel strongly that Scherzer is a non-starter for the front office considering his age, price (the article predicts "eclipsing JVs 33m  AAV), budget, other needs and because they may want to resign Iglesias.  He will have competitive offers from more plausible contenders so I'm just moving on from him, not that the Angels won't make the appropriate noise to placate fans that "they tried".

I would like to see Stroman or Gray, with Cobb (under reasonable terms.  While I still think Stroman is still too rich (AAV & term) for the Angels blood, he would give the Angels a legit 1a/1b punch. WIth Stroman or Gray, Cobb is not necessary but it would be fantastic if Sandoval and Suarez were fighting it out for 4/5.  

My guess is that the Angels go with someone who can be had in the 4/75 range and re-sign Cobb.