HBAngel13

First and foremost, thank you for the well wishes. We can agree or disagree about baseball things, but, I appreciate that you aren't losing your humanity in the process. Thank you. 
 
I am sorry that you believe that I am downplaying what happened. Maybe I am, but there are reasons for it. 
 
First, this happened 15 years ago. There's nothing you or I can do about it. While you said that it was probably the worst thing to happened to our farm system, I would say firing Bane and Co., and not investing in scouting and player development was worse. We can discuss this at a baseball game sometime this year. (maybe at IE to watch our future!). Whether we agree or disagree, we can agree that the one-two punch of those BAD decisions wrecked the farm for about a decade and hurt our Major League club. It probably cost us playoff spots over the years. 
 
Second, baseball is my love and escape from all the hell I've gone through and am still going through. I choose not to give this negativity power over me by getting me upset, pissed off, etc.
 
(Just to give an idea, if you count each time that I've had doctors cut open my skin and dig out things with tweezers and other tools due to my cancer, without any anesthetic, I'm at over 400 this year, of which 200 were on my head, and we'll over a thousand last year. It hurts like hell, often with 2 or 3 doctors cutting and digging st the same time, and then it takes days for the scabs to heal, which is also very painful. 
 
My cancer is one of the most painful cancers out there, other than brain cancer, and I get to live with it for 25 years or more (most people with my cancer die of other causes). (and, if I'm making some typos, it's because thanks to my chemo, I've lost most of the feeling in my hands and feet--go neuropathy!) and can't see well because other meds that they have given me have given me cataracts so I get to have 2 more surgeries over the next 6 weeks).
 
I am telling you this not to ask you to feel sorry for me. To be honest I don't feel sorry for me, and am not angry about getting cancer. I just don't like the one I have. 
 
The reason why I said that (and trust me, this is the best I've felt in 3 years!) is to give you some insight as to why I appear to downplay things or give the perception of downplaying things. The only thing that truly upsets me now is politics, which I won't discuss on here. That's because baseball is my escape, coming on AngelsWin is a source of joy for me (Thanks again Chuck for making this site--you don't know how much I've needed it over the years, whether for support fom people on here or a good laugh about baseball). I have and have had bigger issues to deal with over the years. So, what happened in Latin America, while very frustrating, has no real power over me, because I choose not to get upset by it. I don't want to invest the emotional energy in something I cannot change. 
 
Third, I can separate a crime from feeling sorry for a victim. Take, for example, a person driving a Corvette into a bad part of town, leaving $10k in cash on the front seat, and the engine running, and then walks away for an hour. If that person comes back to find everything stolen, did a come occur? Yes, and in a criminal case, I'd convict the perpetrator. 
 
But, if the victim then sued in civil court the perpetrator, if I were on he jury, I would not award much in damages, other than to make the victim whole, because I wouldn't feel l that sorry for him/her.  There is a difference between feeling sorry for someone and a crime occurring. 
 
As I have said all along, Clay Daniel's did some bad things. And, since Daniel's worked for the Angels, as their agent, the Angels did bad things. There is a difference between what the Angels did (mostly ignoring what was happening, then trying to sweep it under the rug, and finally shutting everything down) and what Daniels did. But, for all intents and purposes, yes, Daniels = Angels, especially on that market. 
 
From what I've been told by many people in several organizations who had first-hand or second-hand knowledge of events in Latin America (please don't ask, I've been told this and many other things off the record that I will never reveal, otherwise I will risk losing confidentialitiesl), that many people and many organizations were doing sketchy and/or illegal things at the same time. You mentioned 3 teams. We know the Braves, even after everything went down, continued to do sketchy things, which led to us getting Maitan (I miss debating about him as a prospect even though he washed out) and Soto. So, the abuses there continue. 
 
I can tell you from people in other organizations, I have been told things to the effect of "we were lucky that we weren't caught" for what they were doing at the time in Latin America.
 
I have also been told by people in a couple of organizations that in the investigation, MLB sank it's teeth into certain organizations, and not others, so as to prevent an entire image problem, like steroids. So, when I say "made an example of the Angels" it's because I think that the investigation could have and should have removed rot from everywhere, in plenty of other organizations. Consequently, I am VERY suspicious of how MLB really handled the investigation, the teams they went after, and publicly shamed (how many people who even know about this know about Chicago for example?).
 
Again, it doesn't excuse what Daniels did, but I don't believe that he was the worst offender at the time, even if what he did was illegal or wrong (sadly, in many Lain American countries, what is wrong isn't always illegal, especially if you pay off the right people and what is illegal isn't always wrong, don't pending upon whom you uoset--as you pointed out, relationships and perceptions, along with cash, go a long way). I do believe that others may have done worse in a wild west situation and just weren't caught for some reason. Like players and steroids, we know of some players who took them. But a lot more got away with it, and ownership and MLB turned a blind eye to it for a long time. Is Bonds worse than Clemens? What about Gary Matthews Jr? MLB made examples of them, and others, but they were hardly the only ones who cheated with steroids or other drugs. To go after some, and not others, is a form of selective prosecution, which I don't like or consider fair. Selective prosecution is a way to make an example of someone or something. Since I am fairly certain, based on what I've been told, that other teams were doing similar sketchy things, maybe not as bad as Daniels and other teams, I do consider that selective prosecution, and making an example of the Angels. 
 
How the Angels responded to what happened, IMHO, set the team back quite a bit, and I do believe that if Arte and others responded differently to it, we would have been better off over the last 15 years. But again, I can't change that. 
 
Finally, I'm focused on this year. I'm actually excited because we seem to have a good, young core, that I believe will exceed expectations. No, I don't expect a playoff team, but the season is young and we need to play it out over the summer. We have no pressure this year, and I do see us having a window as Houston ages and Texas rises and falls on its offense. We seem to be on the right path, finally. We are maximizing our international money and getting good talent, like Rada, Urena, etc.
 
Until MLB puts far stricter rules in place (personally, I favor some sort of international draft to end all of these shenanigans), abuses will continue. Again, just look at the Braves for example. So, I sill view it as an imperfect system that is not fully regulated and rife with abuses.
 
Unfortunately, that is the system that those players live in (as you or someone else noted that the buscones are developing tools to get kids (and yes, they are kids which is not right in my book) to get signed for big money, only to see them calm apart stateside. 
 
I know that this is a long response, but you, as a poster, and great commentator, deserve a much more robust answer from me. 
 
Again, I apologize if you and others think I'm downplaying what happened. I hope I gave you some insights into why I've said what I've said.  And I look forward to catching a game with you. 

I just realized that in years past I was only really interested in wins and losses. 
This year, I'm legitimately interested in watching a bunch of guys on the team play.  I also like Ron and haven't liked either of our last two managers.  
And I'm sorta over the whole Ohtani thing.  
I'm ready to see a team that's decent to good at pretty much all positions.  
Going back ten years, I would say that I enjoyed watching Trout and Ohtani of course, but outside of that there were very few.  Howie, Richards, Shoemaker, Simmons and that's about it.  
This year I will want to see Neto, O'Hoppe, Schanuel, Rengifo, Trout, Ward, Sandoval, Detmers, Soriano, Drury, Canning, and a few others.  
They might not win enough to make the playoffs, but I like this team.  

Yeah, that was IMO again Bill Stoneman.  Stoneman had to have been a difficult guy to bargain with, he essentially drew a line in the sand and wouldn't cross it.  I think his tendency to know when to say "no", is why Arte didn't try his usual BS on him.  
The thing that set Stoneman aside from the guys that followed him was his absolute commitment to the farm system. People forget or maybe just don't know how much money Stoneman dumped into the system -- he consistently spent first round money on guys taken in the middle of the draft and on draft and follow types. Mark Trumbo was taken in the 18th round because of signability concerns and a college commitment to USC. Nick Adenhart was taken in the 14th or 15th round after having been considered a potential 1-1 pick. Adenhart's selection raised eyebrows because he had gone down to Tommy John surgery in HS but Stoneman convinced the family that his best shot at making a full recovery was to have him be taken care of by the Angels medical staff.  Weaver, Adenhart, Trumbo were all taken in 2004.   
Stoneman swung and missed on other guys but at least they tried. Chris Davis, Buster Posey, Kyle Hendricks, Brian Matusz, Matt Harvey, Brandon Morrow, were all HS guys Stoneman attempted to throw money at, as were touted college FB guys Patrick White and Jake Locker. Some have attempted to lay the blame on Arte for not allowing him to offer more, but the reality is Stoneman was able to take more of those risks and offer more under Arte than he had at any point under Disney.
Stoneman is the single most impactful person in Angels history other than the guy that set out to get the radio rights to an expansion team and ended up a MLB owner.

I've been arguing in favor of creating greater depth across the board all winter, those 2 WAR types.  I'd argue there are fewer 2 WAR capable bats than there are pitchers currently available, but I'm not opposed to adding either.
Mostly I think taking from one area to try to bolster another is akin to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  
 

Angels trade Sandoval to the Yankees for prospects (6th) Roderick Arias (SS) and (10th) Ben Rice (C) and sign Snell. Yankees stay under the cap and get club control, Angels get two high prospects. 

I'm growing increasingly cool going with what we have, to be honest. Excited to see guys like Sandoval, Detmers, and Canning get a chance to prove themselves in a normal rotation, seeing if Silseth can stick as a starter, Adell getting playing time (diminished if we sign another infielder or DH), and even if non-roster guys like Sano, Dozier, Pomeranz re-discovering themselves.
No one signee is going to really change the direction of the team this year. We have next winter to shop, and if for some reason we're in it this year, having a freed up payroll will make it easier to take on some help midseason without eating into the farm as much.
It's been refreshing not having expectations going into a season for once, just enjoying watching a really unproven lot of guys and seeing what comes of it. I think it's equally good for the players to not having those expectations or Troutani Window pressures. Ron's building a new foundation here.

Whichever bat they acquire to play has to be better than Drury, Rengifo or Scanuel.  I want Belt, but it just means when everyone is healthy Rengifo sits more often than I’d like. 

I get what he’s saying. 
 
This team could surprise and even sneak in a wild card spot if some shit finally breaks right for once. 

Trading any long term assets (Ward, Moniak, Silseth, etc…) for one year of anyone is exactly what the Angels shouldnt do, especially for a middle infielder.  This team has potential, but they are not one piece away. 

Tomorrow would be a great time to sign Brandon Woodruff for 2025 and beyond. 

I get that way of thinking, but for me personally, I'm at the point that I'd rather just see what the Angels own guys can do this season, rather than take a chance on marginal veterans that might get something back at the deadline.  Unless there's some sort of big signing/trade (or multiple ones), I personally still think pretty much everything has to break right for the Angels to truly be in contention.  If it's a transitional year, I'd rather watch mediocre results with guys who might actually have a future here.  I totally understand others might disagree, though.

That DH will not be part of future. I'm for letting young players getting a chance to see what they can do. 

I added the WAR totals for all candidates. 
Vlad and Baylor's MVP seasons were much lower than I thought they'd be. They got knocked for defensive metrics used to compile WAR totals.
In Mike Trout's non-MVP seasons of 2013 (8.9), 2015 (9.6) and 2018 (9.9) he had a higher WAR than his 2019 MVP season (7.9). 

Would be interested in the WAR totals for each milestone. Won’t be exactly apples to apples to compare pitchers to everyday players but curious on the context.  
 

This is the only thing I've gotten excited about so far this offseason.  
I had three things that would make me happy this off season
Keep Ohtani 
Rendon retires
Arte sells the team.  
I mentioned I would be happy with one of them.  
The Angels had a really good offseason last year IMO and did a ton right.  And it was actually working to some degree until injuries piled up like crazy and then they shit the bed at the deadline and went into full desperation mode.  They showered their girlfriend with shiny baubles in hopes she wouldn't leave.  Then some dude with a big goober came along and handed her three quarters of a billion dollars.  
They're actually having an underrated offseason this year as well.  At least so far.  Especially considering that they don't matchup well with the player pool and their current needs.  But as long as Arte is around there's a chance the team could do something that doesn't make sense for them to produce a sustainable winning product.  
Yes, a new owner could be worse.  At this point, I'll take our chances.  

@Inside Pitch any indication he was unlucky versus shitty?

Most people here will likely want to skip this, it's stat nerd heavy, but if you are interested in stuff like that you'd be well served to read this excellent article at FG...
https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/stuff-location-and-pitching-primer/
This post leans heavily on the information in this article but for anyone not wanting to read the long form or that doesn't want to have to look at a bunch of graphs you can basically focus on these three excerpts/summaries on the three major pitch modeling components.
Stuff+
Stuff+ looks only at the physical characteristics of a pitch. Important features include, but are not limited to, release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate. A pitcher’s secondary pitches are defined based on their primary fastball — with “primary” defined by usage in an outing — and so are judged by velocity and movement differentials along with raw velocity and movement numbers. The model also includes “axis differential,” a statistic that attempts to describe the difference between the movement expected by spin alone and the observed movement affected by the phenomenon described as seam-shifted wake.
Stuff+ was trained against run values, so even if the research community is divided about how much a pitcher can control weak contact, the model includes an inherent nod to the possibility that they do possess some of that ability.
Location+
Location+ is a count- and pitch type-adjusted judge of a pitcher’s ability to put pitches in the right place. No velocity, movement, or any other physical characteristics are included in the statistic. A breaking ball should go to different parts of the strike zone in 2-0 and 1-2 counts, and Location+ captures that phenomenon. Stringer-based command statistics that attempt to judge what a pitcher was intending to do with each pitch do not add predictive value to those models, so Location+ only looks at actual locations and implicitly assumes the intent is generally the same across the league in certain counts with certain pitches.
Pitching+
The overall model, Pitching+, is not just a weighted average of Stuff+ and Location+ across a pitcher’s arsenal. Rather, it is a third model that uses the physical characteristics, location, and count of each pitch to try to judge the overall quality of the pitcher’s process. Batter handedness is also included in Pitching+, capturing platoon splits on pitch movements and locations.
So the short version of all the above is to TRY to measure movement/pitch type, location/pitch type, and how well a pitcher does at doing both.
If you have ever wondered why a guy that throws so hard gets lit up so much -- pitch modeling data is where you want to look.  If you wondered how guys can be coasting and all of a sudden a single baserunner can wreck it all -- again, pitch modeling is where you want to look.
Years ago I waxed poetic about Zach Wheeler despite what the ERA was because WATCHING him pitch it was obvious he was better than his numbers.  For a couple years I mentioned trading either Adell or Marsh in exchange for George Kirby, again because of watching him throw.  Now thanks to pitch modeling it's easier to argue that Pitcher A, should be better or will do well in the future.,
BTW, Wheeler ranks number 2 in MLB in Pitcher+, Kirby 3rd among MLB qualifiers.
So what does this have to do with Lorenzen?
Last we saw him, he was getting lit up the second half of 2023 -- he ended the season with an ERA over 5.50 after joining Philly and was dropped from the rotation -- awful except maybe it was just fluke results, fatigue, or simply bad pitch selection after swapping teams.
Stuff + is again the weighted results of every pitch thrown by every pitcher.  
Stuff+ Averages/Standard Deviations Pitch Type Average Standard Deviation Four-Seam Fastball 99.2 18.3 Changeup 87.2 16.4 Curveball 105.5 16.8 Cutter 102.1 14 Knuckle Curve 110.3 16.4 Sinker 92.5 13.6 Slider 110.8 15.6 Split-Finger 109.6 30.2 Lorenzen pitches graded out like this:
All FB types 98 (above average), Sinker 82 (below average), cutter 91 (below average) Slider 116 (above average), Curve 104 (above average)*, Change 95 (above average).  There seems to be a disconnect between what the stringers are calling a cutter and what Baseball Savant sees as a cutter because they only show him throwing 22 of them and that's not adding up.  it's likely that his sinker is being mistaken for a cutter and it's driving that grade down.
The interesting thing about the info above is that if you look at his location+ data you'll see he's been doing an even better job of locating his pitches.. Location is the same for everyone and so -- 100 is league average regardless of the pitcher.  All FB types 100, Sinker 108, Cutter 66, Slider 102, Curve 111, Change 101.  This is where you can start to pick up how good the pitch has been for him.
Pitching+ Averages/Standard Deviations Pitch Type Average Standard Deviation Four-Seam Fastball 98.1 8.2 Changeup 98.7 8.4 Curveball 103.9 7.2 Cutter 98.6 6.2 Knuckle Curve 104.5 7.2 Sinker 95.4 6.7 Slider 106 6.9 Split-Finger 107.6 10.3 This is probably the most important category -- what he's been able to do when you look at the quality of his stuff and how he's located it...
All FBs 98, Sinker 100, Cutter 62, Slider 106, Curve 110, Change 102 -- don't look now but that sinker/cutter isn't helping him -- but is it even the sinker???
Basically Lorenzen has four quality pitches Four Seamer, Slider, Curve, Change but there is some question what that fourth quality pitch may be.
These are the averages allowed for the individual pitch types at Baseball-Savant.
Pitch type -- wOBA (number of pitches)
Four Seamer - .289m (794) 
Slider - .282, (525)
Change up - .270, (489)
Sinker - .338, (277)
Sweeper - .427 (142)
Curveball - .962 (28)
Cutter - .742 (22)
When you compare his averages allowed from 2022 to last year it seems likely that there there is a large disconnect between what human stringers are charting .vs what statcast is charting.  It seems likely that the stringers are getting the sinker wrong as the averages allowed on it have actually been extremely consistent while the sweeper has seen pretty big swings year to year.

Whatever.   The point is Lorenzen's actually pitched better than it may seem and most of the predictive data likes him.  Last year was his first time throwing more than 97 inning since 2015, he may have just been gassed.  If it's a tunneling issue that can be fixed, if it was fatigue then one can hope another year of added innings means he can keep pitching well longer.  But he's a relatively fresh arm career wise and he's got quality stuff.
Plus if the Angels did sign him -- we'd see a lot less spam from our friend, Fredo.

Two pitches over 102, three over 99, and four over 92, so it's pretty promising. 
I'm still in the "prove this actually translates" mode with pitch modeling, but one of the things that they make clear is that they need to see a certain number of pitches before the numbers mean anything, so it may be a bit early to make any real statements about him,
But the early data pretty much jives with what we have seen, eye test wise.  His sinker has been crappy -- his FB as a whole just doesn't move much which is why a guy with his velocity hasn't seen the results.  

But his slider and cutter grade out really nicely.
The whole idea behind pitch modeling is to take the movement and velocity and compare it to the league average.  If you then compare how those pitches grade out to the data at say Baseball Savant for the actual and expected results for the pitch types it's crazy how well the two data points match up.
For instance, his four seamer had a stuff+rating of 84 -- if you look at how hitters fared vs that pitch you'll see a wOBA of .423 which is awful.  Meanwhile his cutter comes in at 105 with a wOBA of .202
This is why I obsess over crap like this.  You watch him pitch you see the plus velocity but the lack of movement and then you watch him give up hard hit contact as a result.  So it's nice to be able to go look for stuff like this that isolates movement/velocity and allows you to compare that info to the actual results in order to formulate an opinion based on more than just what you think you know.  Silseth is a work in progress but there are things in his tool box that you can't teach and the Angels need to refine.  He's someone ppl should have some hope for.
Back to Canning.. I've been talking him up as a breakout guy for a couple years now, there is now data that shows why that's not just eye test BS..

I hope the Angels are taking a look at Rhys Hoskins. He could probably be had on a high AAV pillow contract.  From what I understand, he would provide some coverage at 1B and not totally clog the DH spot. Would also be a great deadline trade piece if we aren’t in contention.  If healthy, he is probably in the ballpark with Soler and Martinez. 

Schanuel should be the main guy at first unless he struggles. Hoskins can DH a chunk of the time and play 1B against lefties.  
My fear with Schanuel is a complete dearth of power at a corner infield spot.  

I hope the Angels are taking a look at Rhys Hoskins. He could probably be had on a high AAV pillow contract.  From what I understand, he would provide some coverage at 1B and not totally clog the DH spot. Would also be a great deadline trade piece if we aren’t in contention.  If healthy, he is probably in the ballpark with Soler and Martinez. 

I hope the Angels are taking a look at Rhys Hoskins. He could probably be had on a high AAV pillow contract.  From what I understand, he would provide some coverage at 1B and not totally clog the DH spot. Would also be a great deadline trade piece if we aren’t in contention.  If healthy, he is probably in the ballpark with Soler and Martinez. 

As unsexy as this offseason has been, I do like this overall approach. Shore up depth with calculated moves that don’t hamstring the future.  If the arms aren’t there to help the rotation at a reasonable cost, keep building out the pen to compensate. The SP FA options are much stronger next year and by then we should have a better idea on the young guys development curve. 
While it won’t impact 2024, I do like the idea of a 2-yr get healthy gamble on Brandon Woodruff.  
Also, I know many of us have written off Suarez, but he is only a year removed from being a quality back-end innings eater.  I think the pitch clock probably messed with him a bit.  If Enright can get him back on track, that would be huge for our young starters adjusting to a heavier workload  
Keep raising the floor Perry.  

I hope the Angels are taking a look at Rhys Hoskins. He could probably be had on a high AAV pillow contract.  From what I understand, he would provide some coverage at 1B and not totally clog the DH spot. Would also be a great deadline trade piece if we aren’t in contention.  If healthy, he is probably in the ballpark with Soler and Martinez.