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ettin

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Posts posted by ettin

  1. In this hypothetical, trading for Soto does not preclude the Angels signing Shohei Ohtani, but as IP pointed out it will be incredibly difficult to do both.

    If the Angels are in a window of contention, acquiring 2 1/2 years of Soto would put us in a much more competitive spot as long as we don't send off 40-man pitching. Not every team would be able to handle his arbitration salaries so some of the smaller and mid-market teams would not be in the discussion.

    If all of you are prepared and comfortable to see Jo Adell, Sam Bachman, Arol Vera, Ky Bush, and Jeremiah Jackson go out the door in a Soto trade, then more power to Moreno. If not, don't do it.

    Personally, I feel like out pitching depth up and down the system is much improved and with Trout locked up and Ohtani almost certainly to be locked up, why not spend the next 2 1/2 years going hard at a Championship?

    This all presumes that we have enough trade chips to impress Washington and that will not be easy, if not close to impossible. I will say that Adell is an attractive player as a centerpiece, but the problem is that the Nationals probably want multiple centerpieces and rightly so.

  2. On 5/17/2022 at 10:19 AM, ten ocho recon scout said:

    Ive always been kind of baffled by that, too. Theres so much baseball in SoCal, but we never seem to be big players here.

    Heck, Cal State Long Beach has produced:

    • Troy Tulowitzki
    • Jered Weaver
    • Evan Longoria
    • Marco Estrada
    • Matt Duffy
    • Jason Giambi
    • Jason Vargas
    • Danny Espinosa
    • Paul McAnulty (our favorite!)
    • Kyle Abbott
    • Adam Wilk
    • Vance Worley

    List continues, but that is just one solid baseball college in CA, so it is pretty unbecoming of the Halos to not be roaming their own backfield.

  3. 1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

    The angels had a bunch of come back wins last year didn’t they or the year before.  That’s not what’s looking ok about this years group.  It’s that they’ve got twice as many wins as losses and their run differential is what ? 3rd best in the majors.  This is evidence of the team actually being good.  
     

    You could see what we’re seeing now if things broke right for the Angels for a couple of years at least.  Things have broke right so far.  They need at least one more reliable starter really they need 2.   Maybe Canning can be one.  Maybe this Diaz guy.  But if we’re talking about the team being good through 162 they’re going to need more guys in the pitching area.  And, as always they’ll need some luck with health.  We can’t have 3 or 4 main cogs getting hurt at the same time. 

    That's Cy Diaz to you!

  4. 10 minutes ago, True Grich said:

    I wonder if it’s his decision? I mean, right after he was quoted about why Ohtani was leading off, it changed to Ward. Makes me wonder if it was Minasian’s call?

    The decision was almost certainly Maddon's, Ward is currently running a 22% walk percentage, the highest of his career. Makes sense to let him try and get on-base in front of our best hitters.

  5. So I, above most here, am extremely happy to see Ward's bat and defense making a difference, we need guys like him stepping up and helping to carry the team throughout the year.

    However, we do need to temper our expectations a bit, the guy is running a red-hot .409 BABIP and has the highest walk rate of his career, so something has to give, probably (hope not, but let's be a little realistic). To be fair Ward has run high BABIP's throughout his Minor League career so how far he eventually regresses may not be too much, but it seems inevitable that it will happen, no one runs a .409 BABIP for the season.

    All that being said I love his approach at the plate, the guy looks just as relaxed and nonchalant as Rendon does and he seems well prepared every time he steps to the plate. On top of that his defense has been above average too, to date.

    If he can continue down this path, he will give the team great depth, which it badly needs.

  6. 2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

    Alright, so I created another chart, using the first one as a basis and adding home runs - the same stat (player games per HR). 

     

    I also cleaned up a couple errors.

    Anyhow, this really accentuates the dead ball era, but from the other angle: home runs.

    Once you get to the 1920s, home runs are much less volatile, which makes sense: they're harder to intentionally generate than a stolen base, and thus less changeable in frequency. But there are fluctuations, but they're a little less extreme than I would have thought.

    For instance, you can see the two home run peak in the mid-90s to early 00s, then a small dip, than an increase in recent years (but a drop this year). But it isn't hugely different than the 1950s on.

    What I find most interesting is how HR and SB meet in the mid-70s to early 90s...this backs up Bill James' assertion about that era being particularly balanced and dynamic.

    Note also the dark blue squares - the five seasons in which the games played per HR and SB were the same (rounded to the nearest whole number): 1929, 1931, 1978, 1983, and 1989. But the HR and SB totals were never exactly the same:

    1929: 1349 HR, 1329 SB

    1931: 1069 HR, 1088 SB

    1978: 2956 HR, 3004 SB

    1983: 3301 HR, 3325 SB

    1989: 3083 HR, 3115 SB

     

    image.png

    The increase in home run's is reflective of improved health and conditioning in MLB (and earlier on it was partially steroids). Also players bulking up strength-wise, which also has a slight incremental impact on base stealing as you "don't want to take the bat" out of a power hitter's hands. It is a confluence of issues.

    EDIT: And to be clear I am speaking to the last 20-25 years of baseball on the chart.

  7. Can't speak to the front- or mid-end of the chart, but in recent years, advanced analytics began to show how stolen bases were not as value-added to run scoring as previously thought.

    Basically, if any individual player, whether they are stealing 1 or 40 bases per year, is not converting their stolen bases at a 75% SB% or higher (i.e., success rate), they are not adding run value to the team. It then became pretty clear that stealing a base for the sake of stealing, was, in most cases, taking runs off a team's total over the course of a season. Thus the decline.

    I do like the aggressive base running this season and I do think if they implement a pitch clock and limit to two throw-overs per player that could create some type of incremental, additional opportunity for stolen bases, but I do not think it is to large of a change, probably mild, if at all.

  8. 1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

    To be fair, he's made himself into a player.  

    Oh of course, he has put in the work, I am just saying that the typical fan has generally disregarded his upside and that very work that he has put in. It's not just the offense, too, it is his ability to play a passably decent CF and can play an above average corner spot, particularly in RF with the C arm he has. I understand why people were underwhelmed on Draft Day, but Ward has turned himself into a functional piece and his bat has improved even more than some thought. I guess I put myself in the category of fans who believed in his potential and it is nice to see him performing well, hope he keeps it up.

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