ShotimeDynasty

Despite the reputation Jo has as being a bust among many Halos fans, I remain optimistic that he can be a late bloomer and become the star so many envisioned when he was counted as one of the top 3 prospects in baseball. Positive strides have been made defensively and with his plate approach (12.1%/26.4% K-BB in AAA ly) and should give us hope he’s ready to produce now as a big leaguer.

The comp I’m going with today is Christopher Morel:

Adell 
‘23 AAA 24yo
330 PA
12.1% BB
26.4% K
.313 ISO

‘19 AA 20yo
182 PA
10.4% BB
22.5% K
.245 ISO

‘23 Statcast 
117.2 Max EV
29.0 Sprint

Morel 
‘23 AAA 24yo 
134 PA
12.7% BB
30.6% K
.400 ISO

‘22 AA 23yo
122 PA
8.2% BB
24.6% K
.259 ISO

‘23 Statcast 
113.6 Max EV
28.6 Sprint

8 hours ago, AngelFanInTheATL said:

Yeah that microscope really affected the Chiefs.  10-2 with her in attendance or something like that.

If players can't "perform" because of a celebrity player in the dugout, then maybe we're in bigger trouble than we thought.

Comparing Baseball to Football is comparing apples to oranges 

Captivating stuff as per usual with this team. Arte really seems to be embracing the villain role

6 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

I do not see Angels giving up 2 young players for a 1 year rental.

It would be a gamble on getting him extended

I could see a trade for Kim coming after Montgomery or Snell signs up.

Silseth + Moniak for Kim might be something that could work.

The 5 outfielder mix just doesn’t feel right, I think there’s a high likelihood one of em gets moved. 

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

Lack of depth for starters right now. If Silseth is fifth in rotation who follows him? Daniels and Rosenburgh then who? 

Suarez and Plesac

On 2/3/2024 at 2:42 AM, tdawg87 said:

Let me start off by saying Rendon is a stupid moron with an ugly face and a big butt and his butt smells and he likes to kiss his own butt. 

Matt Chapman plays 3rd base. He plays 3rd base well. 

"But tdawg, we already HAVE a 3rd baseman!"

Please refer to the top of the page. Also there's some statistical nerd shit that I'd like to share. 

Fangraphs really likes Matt Chapman in 2024. These are his current ZIPS projections:

.240 AVG, 25 HR, .339 wOBA, 117 wRC+, 4.0 WAR. 

And remember, ZIPS is generally on the conservative side (Taylor pls) when it comes to projections. 

You know who Fangraphs doesn't like as much for 2024? Cody Bellinger. His ZIPS projections:

.267 AVG, 19 HR, .327 wOBA, 109 wRC+, 2.8 WAR.

Yes, Bellinger is younger. Yes he's a LHH. But he's almost certainly going to get a much larger contract than Chapman. 

Now what do we do with Rendon, then? 

Bat him DHth. Take him off the field and lower the boo-boo risk. Give him a day off once a week so Trout can DH. God I'm such a genious.

And although it's very unlikely, signing Chapman as opposed to Bellinger might give the Angels enough freedom to go after Snell or Montgomery as well. Again, highly unlikely and I know I just set off an alarm at @Inside Pitch's house by suggesting we forfeit 2 draft picks but I'm going balls deep here, man. 

Anyway, what are your thoughts on signing Chapman as opposed to a guy like Bellinger? Am I an idiot? Yes. Should we stay away from any big contracts for hitters? Focus on pitching? 

I love this idea. Would move Rendon to first base and give him the occasional DH day. Schanuel would get most of his run at DH vs RHP. The only drawback for me is limiting O’Hoppe to only getting PAs when catching. As is, I’d pencil Logan in for 50 DH days. Anyhow, all it takes in 1-2 (probably inevitable) injuries and O’Hoppe is back to getting frequent DH days. 
 

Chapman at third, Rendon at first, Neto SS and Drury/Rendon at second all of a sudden gives the Angels a very strong infield defense

8 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

They may need OF help but their SP is the weakest/most untested its been in a decade.  I don't think they are looking to move anyone other than Bieber, and the would probably want pitching coming back.

 

Moniak alone wouldn’t likely net anyone from their MLB rotation but they have a Joey Cantillo 24yo prospect that moved up to AAA last year who lines up with MM on BTV. High K/BB guy seems like the kind of guy Perry has been targeting 

On 2/9/2024 at 11:59 AM, Angels in 2030 said:

Exactly.  Each year this team sucks even with huge performances from Trout & Ohtani.  As the season goes along, the lack of depth is on full display with very little bench and farm system available to get thru the long 162 season.  The lack of producing any stars is obvious.  But even more telling is simply good depth players available and on hand when injuries occur.  You can twist the narrative all you want to make excuses for the Angels and be a homer.  "Gotta support the team!" -- as Puddy would say on Seinfeld.  But we have 10 years of data -- facts are facts.  

Hopefully, one day soon, we can put that behind us and get back to the Stoneman days of true farm system building and player development.  It requires a sea change though.  This organization will linger in apathy/insignificance until then.  

Taylor Ward, Jared Walsh and Griffin Canning all were good picks that have been developed well but on field MLB results have been diminished due to injuries. Matt Thaiss looks like another decent pick with upside.. was really good last year until overuse caught up with him.

Detmers has already produced 4.6 fWAR headed into his age 24 season with plenty of upside remaining.

Would be nice to see more hits, but the bad injury luck has to be accounted for

13 hours ago, Stradling said:

Just sign Montgomery and Soler. Costs less per year than Snell and JD, but you’ll have to give Soler 3 years instead of one year for JD. But if you want to replace Shohei you sign Snell and JD. 

If the Halos sign either Soler or JD there has to be a corresponding OF trade, right? Saw a rumor floated that SD was looking at a Moniak trade.

Idk what kind of return would be coming back, but Moniak is one of the few guys we could trade where it might not have to be a “sell low” situation.. depending on how teams value his polarizing 2023 of course.

Could see as many as three FAs still being in play. Thinking Monty, TA and Votto. Of course these signings would mean some corresponding trades/demotions. Not sure which direction they’d go here but I’ll guess:

Silseth to AAA

Stefanic & Drury traded for prospect depth

Chapman/Bellinger/Snell long shots due to QO

On 2/7/2024 at 12:08 PM, angelsnationtalk said:

Well shit then the coaches will get us a 90 win season with that Ron Washington attitude!!! 

JK we will be a 70 win team.

How many times did Haselman send a runner that had no business going home or hold up a runner that would have almost certainly scored? Not to mention the time he sent Neto that resulted in a reinjured back. You really so sure Eric Young as third base coach rather than that bozo won’t directly result in some Ws?

20 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Moniak is a huge regression candidate and a big reason why I wanted Gurriel.

Moniak was thrust into a situation that he should not have been in when injuries struck mid-June thru July 3rd (Trout’s broken hamate day). Before the injuries he was a pure platoon player. After the injuries he started facing LHP and then tried playing thru injury.

Take a look at his stats up to 7/3/23

119 PA

8 HR

11 2B

31.1% K

.351 ISO (!)

.382 BABIP

.307/336/658

166 wRC+

The BABIP looks unsustainable, sure, but he was smoking the ball. Some of that above average BABIP was earned. The plate discipline was bad, but much more palatable than the 35% K rate he finished the year with. Given a rotation of 5 outfielders we can be sure the intention is for him to face RHP only. 

Point is, the expected regression for Mickey Moniak is being overestimated 

On 2/7/2024 at 12:08 PM, angelsnationtalk said:

Well shit then the coaches will get us a 90 win season with that Ron Washington attitude!!! 

JK we will be a 70 win team.

Barry Enright joined the Diamondbacks coaching staff as Brent Strom’s assistant about 2wks after Strom got the job

Take a look at what happened to Zac Gallen once those two got a hold of him as he entered his age 26 season.

Below you will find some Gallen comps from before his time with Strom/Enright

Gallen

AA Age 21
71.1 IP
13 GS
5.3 K/9
2.4 BB/9
41% GB
3.79 ERA

MLB Age 23
80 IP
15 GS
10.8 K/9
4.1 BB/9
38.9% GB
2.81 ERA

Detmers

AA Age 21
54 IP
12 GS
16.2 K/9
3.0 BB/9
36.2% GB
3.50 ERA

MLB Age 23
148.2 IP
28 GS
10.2 K/9
3.6 BB/9
36.7% GB
4.48 ERA

Sandoval 

Age 24-25 Seasons
41 GS
235.2 IP
9.4 K/9
3.7 BB/9
48.7% GB
3.17 ERA

Gallen

Age 24-25 Seasons 

35 GS
193.1 IP
10.3 K/9
3.4 BB/9
44.4% GB
3.72 ERA

9 minutes ago, ScruffytheJanitor said:

Typical doomcuck response. We had and have a top-26 bullpen in the majors. 

The comment was purely about 2023 when the Angels bullpen was bottom 3 in ERA

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Our bullpen was pretty damn bad. 

Bottom 3 in MLB

PECOTA came out and projects the Angels for 74.5 Wins. If I’m not mistaken this system has no way of accounting for coaching upgrades, which for the Angels are abundant with a complete overhaul.

How might we quantify these in terms of 2024 Wins?

Wash>Nevin

EY>Haselman

Enright>Wise

J Washington>Thames

I personally think these are extremely significant upgrades that could have an enormous effect on a squad more than half full of guys 28yo and younger, especially considering last years group was likely detrimental rather than helpful 

On 2/3/2024 at 4:37 PM, johndw52 said:

Contracts for...

Lorenzen and Bellinger would put us into wild card contention.  If our bullpen lives up to expectations I think its possible.  Of course if  injury demons continues to haunt us, all bets are off.  

  

 

If Lorenzen was signed would you then stash Silseth in SLC? Or move TA to long relief? 

13 minutes ago, DMVol said:

I wonder if Bachman isn’t a RP long term. Just can’t stay healthy. Not sure being a RP insulates you from injury but the work load of a starter is tough.

He very well may be a reliever in the long run but it makes sense to give him the opportunity to develop into a starter before making that decision final. 

I think the less exciting bullpen signings (Garcia/Cimber/Cisnero/Kolarek/Plesac) are meant to insulate prospect arms from being pushed too quickly. Guys like Joyce and Bachman likely wouldn’t have earned call ups if it weren’t for a lack of organizational depth and the desperation mode we were in thx to Shohei’s presence. If Joyce can get to consistently throwing strikes and start making some back to back appearances he will earn the callup. Bachman likely going to be SP exclusively. Cisnero looks like move that’s healthy for the org

2 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

What if it's an insurance move for a trade involving someone like Ward or Adell?

They could do some package with them for a pitcher then go after Bellinger. 

Yep. Gives them the flexibility to make a move or just roll with these five outfielders. Feels like a good hedge

Basically Superman when his shoulder wasn’t affecting his performance

3/30-4/20
.283 AVG
4 HR
13% Barrel
44% Hard Hit

9/8 to EOY
.270 AVG
8 HR
22% Barrel
47% Hard Hit

O’Hypey 

8 minutes ago, The Ghost of Bob Starr said:

From my friend on the Reds, Votto is a complete class act. Last year, he knew the writing was on the wall, but he was a solid dude the whole time. 
 

He could be a great mentor guy, but not to take ABs from someone. He may have more value from a leadership perspective - something that sadly Trout does not have.  
 

I think he’s washed, but I think he can bring value in to the team with the younger guys. 

If he were to just replicate the 11.2% BB / 25.6% K / .231 ISO that he posted in 23 he would likely end up with an above average wRC+. .212 BABIP from last year was terribly unlucky.

Furthermore, I think the ISO shows he still has something in the tank.. 14 points higher than his career average. If he was washed his K rate would’ve been worse and I think he’ll just retire when he’s truly washed. 

2nd round draft pick that was considered a potential SP2. Injuries interrupted his career early on but last year’s 127 IP were very encouraging in his age 27 season. The way he ended the season was incredible. Crazy to think he could clear 160 IP in 2024, his age 28 season?