ThisismineScios

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

All true, but thats all based on IF either of them are actually ready or crushing it at AAA. 
Adell especially still has a lot to learn defensively.   If hes destroying they might let him learn it on the job, but thats a big if.

I'm not saying they definitely will, that's an inexact science. I too am skeptical but hopeful. I'm saying if you are an agent advising your player on a team's potential fit, you are saying to Puig/Rosario/Joc/Eaton/Schwarber, "Their top two prospects can take your place at any time. That may not be the best place to guarantee 150 games and reset your value." 

2 minutes ago, Fourts said:

Heaney is a FA after this year.  Putting him down for #4-6 spot in 2022 is a little premature.  Do you see the problem?  We have one SP signed (Canning) and one huge SP question mark (Ohtani).  

People mention we will have more money to spend -- that's not as it appears.  Sure lots of 2021 salary falls off.  But even if you let all these guys go (Heaney included), and fill spots from within (3-4 SP spots, SS, C, RF, close, etc.)....2022 arbitration + Rendon/Trout raises eat into a lot of those savings.  But really, just one good SP or SS 2022 FA acquisition will likely be it.  Rest will be similar to the Cobbs/Fowlers. 

This is just a confusing jumble and it's not even accurate. I don't think they should re-sign Heaney. But somebody of his caliber should be a #4-6 in a good rotation, and I think Detmers is good enough to be a #4-6 next year. If you don't, that's ok; but you are disagreeing with the majority of analysts. As for the rest of the confusing part:

-We will have Canning, Ohtani, Detmers, Sandoval, and Barria to fill out the back of the rotation next year. You can go sign 1-2 quality SP and have a good rotation. I don't know why you think we'd have to sign 4 SP. 
-They absolutely should spend big on a SS, $25 million or so for a Baez, Story, or Seager.
-Doubtful they spend a lot on a catcher when no top ones are availble.
-They will have some bullpen arms to replace, but teams don't usually sign more than 1 expensive bullpen guy.
-Adell or Marsh is playing RF in 2022 and there's not really a doubt about that. They make almost nothing, less than a million. 
-They are on the hook for $100 million with Trout, Upton, and Rendon. Ohtani will likely be the only pricey Arb guy (go check the Arb status of their returning guys). They will have anywhere from $60-70 million after arbitration and possibly re-signing Bundy to build the rest of the roster. 

Thanks. 

17 minutes ago, floplag said:

i think a guy like Puig, one a one year deal, absolutely would have to reset his value and show he can still play.  Besides you think Upton has much left? 
I dont think we come out of all this with both Marsh and Adell, one of the will be traded to get the arm we want, so we will still potentially have an OF spot and Adams wont yet be ready.

All of these guys I mentioned, including Puig, are looking at the whole year. They don't just look at money, they look at situation. If Adell and/or Marsh crushes AAA, you think the Angels are going to keep them down because Puig on a 1-year deal is doing really well? If Puig is doing really well and Adell or Marsh is crushing it and ready, guess what? The Angels are 100% trading Puig for an asset and bringing them up. They are not going to block the development of their own guys so Puig can reset his value. This is absolutely true, but even if you don't think it is 100% agents for all the guys believe it's a possibility. So why sign with a team where you think you will likely get benched, platooned, or traded mid-year instead of a team that is promising a full-time job all year? 

It doesn't matter what Upton has left. They probably tried to dump his contract, but nobody is touching him with 2 years left. Next year they may be able to dump him. 

I agree they will have to trade one of those three, I just don't think it's a guarantee to be Adell or Marsh. Trout in LF, Marsh in CF and Adell in RF can be among the best outfields in the majors if they play to their talent. 

17 minutes ago, Fourts said:

So you are ok having your #3-5 starting spots next year be Detmer (unproven), Sandoval & Barria/Suarez?!?  I really like Detmer, but expecting him to be a #3 on a contending team without seeing any professional results and never having come close to pitch a full season is very optimistic.  Your #4-5 for us (without BIG improvements from such guys) will put us in a bad spot.  Title contending team needs to do better.     

No, I simply said you don't have to replace all those guys because you have similar guys waiting in the wings. I don't think Detmers should be a #3 next year because I don't think Heaney should be a #3 on our most ideal staff. But we have more money to spend next year, and with improvements from the young guys the spot Heaney fills now can be #4-6 next year. Detmers as your #5 - #6 isn't outlandish considering every major prospect analyst believes he will be up this year. The better of Barria/Sandoval can fill the back end, the other can go to the bullpen. You are taking a very extremist view of what I was saying. 

I mean, do people actually think guys like Joc, Eaton, Schwarber or Rosario wanted to come to our OF situation? Everybody and their mother knows our RF spot is a placeholder. Why would guys like that go for it on a 1-year deal when they need to parlay this next year into a multi-year deal? It's not that we didn't go after guys like that; it's that they would be pretty dumb to take a deal to keep the seat warm for Adell/Marsh. Fowler costs $1.75 million, is a LH bat, a good locker room guy, and a BB machine. That's bad in the 8-9 hole? Huh? Can you imagine relying on Ward and Schebler to platoon all year? It's another floor-raising move. And when you raise the floor, you reduce the margin for error. 

I get it. I wanted a top-notch starter or two, 2-3 elite bullpen guys, and a good catcher. But we've spent $29 million this offseason (all of which expires after this year), and filled 4-5 holes. We are most likely not done. Bauer is about to get $33-35 million a year. We really would rather have Bauer than 2 back end starters, 2 relievers, a backup catcher, and a stopgap/4th OF? I'm good with filling multiple holes in the boat rather than installing a turbo engine and hoping everything else works out. But I get why fans wanted more, so I'm just speaking for myself. 

9 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

That's 10 positions. If they only spend $9 million on every single one they'll be up to $190 million, which seems to be Arte's limit. They need at least 4-5 of those spots filled by the farm.

It looks good on the surface but it really isn't. 

Except that's not at all how it works. We won't have to replace Heaney (Detmers), Pujols (Walsh), Quintana (Sandoval), Cobb (Barria/Suarez), or Fowler (Marsh/Adell). All of these replacements will make very little money. They will have to find a SS from a loaded class, probably a catcher, and shore up the pitching staff. But 1 year of Upton is also a lot easier to dump than 2 years. Having a ton of flexibility is a really good thing. "It really isn't good" is a bad take. 

23 minutes ago, Torridd said:

Ha! With an edict like that, why need a GM?

...hence the problems we always run into with Arte. He is extremely controlling. 

1 hour ago, T.G. said:

I think the dark horse to sign Bauer is the Cardinals.  Just a wild guess.

I thought about this today. They are more likely to go and get an Odorizzi/Paxton, but they suddenly look like a sneaky World Series pick if they can get a really good pitcher. And just because they don't normally sign top FAs doesn't mean they won't spend (Goldschmidt, Holiday). 

40 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

I like Barria to step up and be big part of rotation

Agree he is a part of the future, but I think he starts the year in the bullpen and Sandoval begins in AAA. 

19 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Here’s my question, that might be better served as a poll.

Is there a reason that all off-season Halos acquisitions are just one year from FA?

Coincidence, or Arte not wanting to do multi year contracts until the new CBA is hammered out?

Although a blow torch might be needed to thaw the relations between the two sides.

Disclaimer that I know nothing but speculating makes me feel better about this underwhelming offseason. 

I'd guess that Arte's edict to Perry went something along the lines of this: 

-No 9 figure deals this year and keep it around $190 million
-Prefer no multi-year deals unless a great one comes into our laps
-No major $ on RF because it's Adell or Marsh's job to win. 
-Next offseason when we clear Pujols, everyone else, and have 1 year of Upton left we can spend big
-Save for a long-term SS next offseason (Baez, Seager, Story)
-Can spend more on SP next year

The Cobb move, I feel, wasn't a necessity but a clever way to add a 5th-6th starter for peanuts. I think they will make offers to Odorizzi, Paxton, and Walker. But ultimately they are counting on a good Ohtani year (a mistake I think), a step forward from Canning, and small improvements from Quintana and Cobb. They absolutely need another bullpen guy though, and the market is kind of evaporating for that. 

2 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Actually the more I think about it, the more I could see Seattle being an under the radar sleeper. 

They have the $$$ and they could probably accommodate his personal requests in terms of his every 4th day requests, side businesses and Vlogs.

I don't think the Dodgers will. They are going to pay Turner. And 0% chance he goes to Houston after feuding with all those guys over cheating. 

I think it's probably Toronto, the Mets, or SF. Mets have an offer on the table but he's likely holding out for more. Which is not how the market works this late. So he will probably end up taking the Mets offer. 

25 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

Maddon mentioned Marsh, Detmers and Rodriguez by name the other day in that podcast. I would be shocked if they traded any of these 3 guys. Maddon obviously sees a future with all 3 of them. 

I agree. I don't think they will trade Marsh, Adell, Detmers or Rodriguez. The farm just doesn't have enough pitching depth for them to give up their only two good pitching prospects. I think fans are jumping the gun a bit on Rodriguez being near the majors. He's finally healthy, but he hasn't pitched a full season of pro ball. He needs to pitch a full season in the minors before we can count on him for 2022. 

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

But as Secondbase has mentioned a lot in the past is trading guys at the peak of their value.  While I would not be opposed to trading Adams in the right deal, it might be best to trade him when his value is highest.  I would say that Marsh is an example of a guy at peak value right now.  

Yeah that's what I had said in an earlier post. In terms of using them in a trade, you trade them at their peak prospect value. If you allow them to come to the majors, either they lose value (because they're bad) or they set the world on fire and you don't trade them because they help you win. 

I see it as this:
Marsh: near his prospect peak, and therefore his peak trade value. If he doesn't get to the majors this year, and has a good year in the minors, maybe he jumps up in the Top 100. But he's floating around 30-50 on most lists. 

Adell: Probably near his low. He was a Top-5 prospect that came up and struggled. He's on the verge of being a starter, but he has lost some of his luster as a prospect.

Adams: On the way up but still has not come close to his peak. Wouldn't necessarily make sense to trade him unless a team overvalues him. 

9 hours ago, Second Base said:

I think some of your assessments on ability, and trade price are inaccurate. But at some point, it is likely that one of those three will be dealt. 

Yeah, I didn't mean I thought that was something the Cubs would go for. It would clearly not be enough for both. But finding a team that loves Adams wouldn't be too hard. It doesn't make sense to hold on to blocked guys. 

6 hours ago, Second Base said:

Yeah it's probably nothing, but it's winter time. We scrutinize everything.

They have to trade him, Adell or Marsh. Trout is in the OF for 10 more years. The key is to trade the one you are ok letting go at the peak of his value. Marsh is near his peak prospect value now. Adell is probably at his near low. Adams? Some teams may see a future great CF. He’s a borderline Top-100 guy right now (made Baseball Prospectus list). I’d trade him, a really young guy, and Canning for Contreras and Hendricks. 

5 hours ago, Trendon said:

 

That the Angels were strongly pursuing Soria and the fact that they were interested in Brad Hand seems to indicate that they are still active in the relief market.

I'm not fully convinced that they are, but they should be and I sure hope they are.

I think them being mentioned as in on Hand, Soria, and Odorizzi is a sign they are at least still looking. It’s not like the Cobb move takes them out of that. If Perry is content with “decent”, by his own words, he will be asked about that all year. It may have been a poor word choice, but he is now accountable (if they do nothing) to tell the writers and fans that only decent pitching, with Trout and Rendon on your team, is ok. 

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

A solid defense of Minasian's thinking. But you still ignore the fact that the Angels could have picked up a similar caliber pitcher for no more than $0-2M more, and not lost a potentially useful prospect.  The deferred money helps, but only if they need it to bring in someone else this year - if they don't, it is just spreading it out unnecessarily.

Your logic seems based on "giving Perry the benefit of the doubt" - which means you over-sell Cobb, under-sell Jones, and imply they need the money this offseason. If all of those things are true, fine - it isn't a terrible move. But if not, well, it is just giving away Jones.

I don't know much about Minasian yet, so I'm not claiming his brilliance. I was annoyed when this was first announced. As details have emerged, it's become clear how smart of a move it was.

It's hard to oversell an average starting pitcher for ~ $3 million. It's also hard to undersell a prospect like Jones that has no clear path to help the team and who will likely see his value diminish in the next couple of years. I loved Jones for his work ethic and intangibles. Do you realize he's already 23? He's 6 months younger than Rengifo. Right now is likely his high water mark. And you can't possibly think they won't spend another dime this offseason. Of course they will, be it OF, Bullpen, or a starter. 

I don't think Jones had much value. He's blocked in the OF, Fletcher at 2B, and has lost his luster a bit. Perry has people from Atlanta, the Dodgers, Royals, and Brewers (and now Toronto) working in the FO with him. They clearly aren't very high on Jones' upside, and think he was expendable. If the Angels only gave up Jones and took a $3-5 million hit, it's worth it. I'd love to see this be the solidifying on the back end for them to sign another starter. But this would in theory allow them to trade Canning. Canning is controlled and unlike Barria, Sandoval, or Suarez has shown that he has real upside to be a #3. Him and Adell (plus a few others) could land Marquez or Castillo. Not saying they will but now they could trade Canning if the right team wanted him.