ShotimeDynasty

14 minutes ago, Stradling said:

MLB might just decide to cut its losses and terminate these guys, settle out of court for the lawsuits that’ll happen because of the terminations. 
My opinion won’t be popular (it seldom is) but the two biggest reasons we are all up in arms about umpiring is we now have a box that tells us what that TV network thinks the strike zone should be. So it’s constantly in your face if they miss that box. And pitchers are throwing harder, with more movement than ever, so the job has gotten harder. Give them either the challenge system or robo strike zone and move on from this issue. 

The challenge system seems awesome and I think implementing this over the offseason is a slam dunk. Since it would be a rules change I’m doubtful the MLB / MLBPA will be able to get it implemented mid season as much as it obviously needs to be. 

2 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

 

@Ochocinco!, what @totdprods says here is correct. If Stephenson spends 130+ days on the IL due to elbow ligament surgery, the Angels have a $2.5M option on him for 2027. Of course, it might not even be worth exercising that option by that point, but it is there. 

And, hey, who knows, maybe it's not as bad as it looked in the video...

Man, I forgot about that elbow injury clause and sure sucks to be reminded of it in just the second week of April, 2024

On 4/11/2024 at 11:09 AM, eaterfan said:

I don't get the hype with Rada. It's fun to daydream because he's so young, but what is the upside? He's small and has no pop. He has good command of the zone, but as the pitchers get more control as he moves up he will probably walk less. He doesn't seem to have the power to keep pitchers from throwing strikes. I get that power is the last thing to develop, but it's not like he's 6' 2" and skinny with a frame to add more weight. There's the occasional Altuve, but I don't like the odds of Rada being close to that. What does he project as in the big leagues? CF David Eckstein?

Really hard not to love any player that finishes a full season as the youngest player at their respective MiLB level, showing an advanced plate approach (13.5% BB/18.1% K) and elite defense at a premium position (MiLB Gold Glove award winner).

I would have Sano (or Moniak) as DH instead of Hicks and Logan O’Hoppe should be the #5 hitter

Not directly related but also interesting

Trout & Ward off to their great starts with completely contrasting adjustments.

Ward swinging much more
Trout swinging much less

Was listening to a pitcherlist podcast with Nick Pollack yesterday and Detmers was the topic. Despite Reid using his slider effectively to pile up 7 Ks in his last start, Nick is out because the Angels “fired all their good coaches” and of course I found that sentiment to be hilarious. Barry Enright and Steve Karsay are going to be opening some eyes this season.

For the record Nick is a really smart guy and diligently studies the science of pitching. But like Enright says, pitching is an art. Some of these analysts are just too smart for their own good sometimes 

4 hours ago, AngelStew43 said:

If it is not giving up the draft choice, I can understand that, maybe.  But, signing Snell also would give the Angels a starting pitching surplus, if there is any such thing.  

One SP to trade, with a couple of teams woefully short in SP, like the Yankees and Red Sox appear to be, offers an opportunity to replenish the farm system after last summer, when we dealt two or three of our top prospects away in deals that obviously didn't work.  

Saw someone on Twitter propose signing Snell then trading Sandoval to NYY for some prospect(s) which would help to makeup for the draft pick loss and I have to say I like that idea

Gonna also mention here that the report that Giants were in on Cease trade talks means they’ve almost have to be having discussions with Snell, which could explain the holdup 

Did I correctly hear Wayne say Schanuel is hitting BP bombs near Shohei territory???

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

7 years $133 million. 

The rate is fine but idk who’s going to agree to that term. 5/$95M seems more reasonable considering the market 

My guess: Arte/Perry waiting for either Snell to accept a lower AAV than he’s looking for or less years for Monty. May need one domino to fall with SF to make the other happen here. 

On 2/18/2024 at 1:55 PM, ShotimeDynasty said:

Despite the reputation Jo has as being a bust among many Halos fans, I remain optimistic that he can be a late bloomer and become the star so many envisioned when he was counted as one of the top 3 prospects in baseball. Positive strides have been made defensively and with his plate approach (12.1%/26.4% K-BB in AAA ly) and should give us hope he’s ready to produce now as a big leaguer.

The comp I’m going with today is Christopher Morel:

Adell 
‘23 AAA 24yo
330 PA
12.1% BB
26.4% K
.313 ISO

‘19 AA 20yo
182 PA
10.4% BB
22.5% K
.245 ISO

‘23 Statcast 
117.2 Max EV
29.0 Sprint

Morel 
‘23 AAA 24yo 
134 PA
12.7% BB
30.6% K
.400 ISO

‘22 AA 23yo
122 PA
8.2% BB
24.6% K
.259 ISO

‘23 Statcast 
113.6 Max EV
28.6 Sprint

After 1 game played for each of these guys it’s close but advantage Jo Adell (no I will not keep doing this unless Jo keeps his OPS above 2.000)

On 2/21/2024 at 12:11 AM, Ochocinco! said:

I’m still confused as to why we gave Garcia his what $4-5 mill? Seems like he won’t be much more than a 5th-6th inning guy. Seems like a lot for a guy who’s spot could have easily been replaced by guys like Koralek, Pomeranz, Cimber etc (who are all min deals) or could have just kept Barria who pitches fine when it’s not high leverage.
I’m knit picking here but just seems we could have used that $4 mill elsewhere 

In 4 of his last 7 seasons he’s posted better than 0.5 fWAR with best career year coming in 2022 (1.6!!). $4M for this profile seems pretty fair and feels like a solid gamble. 

5 hours ago, Taylor said:

mmc is right though that Bauer was a douche before this scandal happened. He's made himself available for league minimum and still hasn't been signed by anyone.

I’ve not seen anywhere where he’s stated he would sign for league minimum without incentives. Would imagine him coming off of his desire for incentives could be a game changer. We’ll see I guess 

6 hours ago, mmc said:

Are people gonna still cry about how unfairly he was done during the season when he’s still not on a roster?  So weird how so many people who never spew bullshit about how the league needs to show compassion to any other player are white knighting the shit out of this dude.  He’s an asshole who no one is interested in doing business with and he earned that reputation on his own.  The hilarious thing is that back when he was a free agent before he signed with the Dodgers plenty of people were saying they thought he seemed like a dick and was annoying

He was known to be an annoying troll but was still signed to a 3/$102M deal regardless of that (well earned) reputation. Wasn’t until he was targeted and went thru this ordeal that he became untouchable. This revisionist history is some wild stuff

4 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I understand what a ceiling is and I have not said that I think he reached his ceiling in '23.  I still think even throwing around stuff like "his ceiling is 45 HR" can only lead to disappointment, though, even if it's not an "expectation".  Barring some unforeseen injury, he's likely to be a very good player--even if he consistently comes in a little under the projections the various systems have for him in '24. I'll just be happy with that and anything else is just gravy.

Should we just agree as a group not to refer to a player’s ceiling? Cuz that’s what got this back and forth started. Somebody else threw out what I perceived to be an incredibly conservative ceiling and I simply came back with my own thoughts as to what O’Hoppe’s best case scenario could look like.

5 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Sorry, didn't realize you were just going off the projections for this season.  I thought you were saying you were looking at something for his career moving forward.

The record for HR in a single season by a player who primarily played C is 48 (Salvador Perez in 2021).  Johnny Bench is second at 45.  There have only been six total 40+ HR season by a guy who primarily played C.

Please understand a ceiling is not an expectation.

O’Hoppe up to shoulder injury on April 20th:

3/30-4/20 (22 calendar days)
.283 AVG
4 HR
13% Barrel
44% Hard Hit

Returned 8/18 and struggled initially. BUT:

9/8 to EOY (24 calendar days)
.270 AVG
8 HR
22% Barrel
47% Hard Hit

Over 66 days O’Hoppe hit 12 home runs. That’s a 33 HR pace over a full season and just one of those games came as DH. If he’s in the lineup everyday with regular DH appearances 40 home runs is not an unreasonable outcome for him. Unless you’re certain he showed us his ceiling in his first MLB action?

4 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Where are you seeing these projections?

6 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I see O'Hoppe has now graduated from a Gary Carter clone to the second coming of Johnny Bench.

I really wish people would chill a bit.  This is just like when people got upset with Kendrick and saw him as a disappointment because he wasn't a perennial batting champ.  O'Hoppe can still be very, very valuable even if he "only" puts up a .260/.345 BA/OBP with 25-30 HRs on a regular basis.  Almost no catchers do that.

Blame me if you must but I’m literally just looking at numerous projections and pointing out that 25 HR with a .260/.345 is just a smidge above those. Not my fault he showed excellent plate discipline in AA followed by terrific output in his first MLB season. Projections see that and have acted accordingly

edit: my stated ceiling for O’Hoppe assumes he could get 150 GP with frequent DH days and is meant to be like a 95th percentile outcome

16 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

If Boras/Bellinger lowers the asking price enough, or accepts a 2-3 year bloated contract…

3/$84M would feel like an Angels W and is a very nice AAV for the player 

On 2/22/2024 at 4:45 PM, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I would say the O'hoppe and Schanuel are going to be key for our success on the offensive side. 

O'hoppe ceiling to me is a a 280 350 OBP 25-30 HR and If he can get us 260 345OBP and about 25 hrs, that strengths our line-up.

Schanuel ceiling to me is a 290-310, 360 OBP and 15 to 20, which I could see if doing.

Your ceiling for O’Hoppe here is like a 65th percentile outcome on his current projections. You’re being way too conservative.

.280/.400 45 Home Run is a better ceiling for O’Hoppe imo

On 2/21/2024 at 8:46 PM, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Always felt like Adell needed just needed to be short to the ball and use all fields. The talent is extremally high and hopefully everything connects this season. 

I recall seeing a good amount of his AAA home runs going out to right centerfield. With Washington’s guidance he could excel using all fields. He’s so strong that any barrel is going out of the park regardless of whether it’s pulled or not. 

On 2/22/2024 at 12:21 AM, Pancake Bear said:

Really hope so. We need one or both of Adell/Moniak to break out. Moniak was good last season, but there's reason for concern with his BABIP. Adell has the raw tools, but just hasn't been able to hit consistently enough to be a big leaguer. If he can hit, he'll play even if he sucks in the field because we have DH open. 

He has loads of talent but skills development has lagged. However he’s clearly a hard worker and we’ve seen the defense improve considerably while that K-BB ratio at AAA was a big improvement. A Morel-like season at the plate would be huge, since Adell should outperform him both on the basepaths and defensively. If he’s able to somehow secure 500 PAs I could see him producing 3 WAR. 

5 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

But the way he acts to the media is disturbing to me. I mean you're making a fortune doing a job every little leaguer dreams about, at least fake a good attitude during interviews...

This is the heart of the matter. The upset fans are at a base level mad that Rendon is being honest, won’t fake it, and really doesn’t care that they’re not gonna like how he shares his truth. 

21 hours ago, Rollinghard said:

Tools? Tools are useless unless somebody knows how to use them. Scouts over value tools. Was it really that hard to see that he couldn't run down a flyball or hit a fastball. Hitting 450 foot BP lasers means very little.

Did you miss the improved K-BB ratio in his most recent AAA stint? That’s a skills improvement 

10 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

I thought he said he was willing to take league minimum?

He’s said he would sign for league minimum plus performance based incentives. If there are any interested teams, the incentives would certainly be a point of negotiation and I imagine he’s asking for the chance to make $30M+ if he pitches like an Ace over 32 starts.