jessecrall

The legit hype around Adell, ie the reports from real scouts and journalists as opposed to cheerleaders, is that he has star potential, a developing but still-risky hit tool and currently boasts a 60 future value on the 20-80 scale. He COULD, if all his tools really flourish, do more I suppose, but right now, he has + regular/All Star potential, right in line with what Springer & Upton have amounted to in their careers. That's really good. If he has 4 seasons like that under team control, the Angels will absolutely take that as opposed to worrying that he isn't Trout or Mooookie or whoever.

The legit hype around Adell, ie the reports from real scouts and journalists as opposed to cheerleaders, is that he has star potential, a developing but still-risky hit tool and currently boasts a 60 future value on the 20-80 scale. He COULD, if all his tools really flourish, do more I suppose, but right now, he has + regular/All Star potential, right in line with what Springer & Upton have amounted to in their careers. That's really good. If he has 4 seasons like that under team control, the Angels will absolutely take that as opposed to worrying that he isn't Trout or Mooookie or whoever.

In 2015, Springer's was 28.8, 2016 it was 28.4 and in 2017 it was 28.0. So that's very consistent, steady decline. Not that sprint speed is perfect metric or anything but yeah, he's probably lost a solid step over the last few years.

The legit hype around Adell, ie the reports from real scouts and journalists as opposed to cheerleaders, is that he has star potential, a developing but still-risky hit tool and currently boasts a 60 future value on the 20-80 scale. He COULD, if all his tools really flourish, do more I suppose, but right now, he has + regular/All Star potential, right in line with what Springer & Upton have amounted to in their careers. That's really good. If he has 4 seasons like that under team control, the Angels will absolutely take that as opposed to worrying that he isn't Trout or Mooookie or whoever.

Right, and I’d be thrilled if matched it.  I just mean the tool kit is similar.  
Funny enough, this comment got me a Debbie downer ! 

Springer was drafted at 21 and didn't hit the majors until he was 24; Upton debuted at 19 and was a very good big league regular at 21. Adell seems to be tracking a little closer to the Upton path, hopefully. If he can basically be a more consistent Upton, I'd be happy.
His sprint speed last year averaged 27.7 feet per second (27 is average, 30 is elite, Trout's usually a little over 29). Justin Upton was at 27.9 so it's pretty good but not necessarily the level of elite basestealers unless you can accelerate quickly or REALLY study pitchers.

Ottavino's gonna want a lot of money for a 33-year-old reliever coming off 1 great season that followed 1 mediocre season that followed 2 injury-marred seasons. Do I want him in a vacuum? Yeah. Do I want him for a multi-year, 8-figure AAV that will tighten money up from other players over the next couple of seasons? Not really.

Yeah, people are seriously overestimating the lure of playing for your hometown team. For one thing, during the season, you're still on the road half the time so what you're really assuming is that Trout's going to base his next contract on 81 game days plus some off-days for a team that plays 40 miles away from his home. As the article says, it's a FACTOR but if Trout was so set on Philly or the east in general, he probably wouldn't have signed the initial extension or he would have made it clear to Eppler & Co. by now that he plans on bouncing. If the Angels are still spinning their wheels after this season and the Phillies are a contender with money to burn, then I'd start to worry.
Also, and granted I'm biased because I've lived in El Lay my entire life, is there a better place to play ball than Southern California? You don't get rainouts, you don't get snow games like the one in Kansas City this year, you don't get that midwestern humidity...How many night games in Anaheim are 75 degrees and clear? Trout loves following bad weather but I doubt he enjoys trying to play in it.

Yeah, people are seriously overestimating the lure of playing for your hometown team. For one thing, during the season, you're still on the road half the time so what you're really assuming is that Trout's going to base his next contract on 81 game days plus some off-days for a team that plays 40 miles away from his home. As the article says, it's a FACTOR but if Trout was so set on Philly or the east in general, he probably wouldn't have signed the initial extension or he would have made it clear to Eppler & Co. by now that he plans on bouncing. If the Angels are still spinning their wheels after this season and the Phillies are a contender with money to burn, then I'd start to worry.
Also, and granted I'm biased because I've lived in El Lay my entire life, is there a better place to play ball than Southern California? You don't get rainouts, you don't get snow games like the one in Kansas City this year, you don't get that midwestern humidity...How many night games in Anaheim are 75 degrees and clear? Trout loves following bad weather but I doubt he enjoys trying to play in it.

Yeah, people are seriously overestimating the lure of playing for your hometown team. For one thing, during the season, you're still on the road half the time so what you're really assuming is that Trout's going to base his next contract on 81 game days plus some off-days for a team that plays 40 miles away from his home. As the article says, it's a FACTOR but if Trout was so set on Philly or the east in general, he probably wouldn't have signed the initial extension or he would have made it clear to Eppler & Co. by now that he plans on bouncing. If the Angels are still spinning their wheels after this season and the Phillies are a contender with money to burn, then I'd start to worry.
Also, and granted I'm biased because I've lived in El Lay my entire life, is there a better place to play ball than Southern California? You don't get rainouts, you don't get snow games like the one in Kansas City this year, you don't get that midwestern humidity...How many night games in Anaheim are 75 degrees and clear? Trout loves following bad weather but I doubt he enjoys trying to play in it.

Lowrie I'd like on a 2-year deal. I'd rather have Fletcher at 3rd than Moose.

I think in the most ideal of scenarios, Trout is extended, Adell takes over in RF, Jahmai Jones explodes in AA and takes over 2B in 2020, Rengifo proves last year wasn't a fluke and builds on it and transitions over to 3B, while Ward and Thaiss battle it out for 1B (the other gets part time DH duty when Ohtani isn't hitting. and Fletcher grabs starts three days a week just generally filling in for Jones and Rengifo, and is a pinch hitter, runner and late inning defensive replacement.
If this played out, it would open up some payroll space, and create a very dynamic offensive and defensive unit.

Assuming Trout gets $40 mil a year, he needs to put up about 5 WAR a season to generate surplus value based on the cost of wins on the free agent market. That doesn't include his additional value as a franchise player who is sure to put asses in seats, eyes on the tv and credit card numbers on merchandising sites. Plus, his skill-set and current, sustained level of play suggests that only serious injuries would prevent him from being a valuable player even as he ages. There's risk to giving him $400 million but there's risk to trading him for prospects. There's risk to letting him go and expecting who ever takes over CF to produce and retain fan loyalty. There's risk to getting on an airplane, crossing the street, ordering your steak rare...you need risk in order to thrive and this team has never developed and held a true Hall of Fame talent. Why screw that up because of risk?

They would have played .500 ball with Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Honus Wagner, Roid Bonds, etc etc. Trout and his contract had NOTHING to do with their struggles. Without him, they would have lost 90 games last year. They've been crappy because they had a historically awful farm system (nothing to do with Trout), gave huge contracts to Pujols and Hamilton (nothing to do with Trout) and had catastrophic injuries to their pitching staff (nothing to do with Trout). Signing Trout to an extension won't affect the farm system, won't affect Pujols and it won't affect their pitching staff. It means they won't have $40 million a year to sign someone else. Fine. If the farm produces the way Eppler intends, they won't need to.

so increase the budget to spend more now on players that are almost assured to produce less relative to what they are being paid
yet don't spend a certain amount to get production above what a player is being paid because of a limited budget?  
now I'm confused.  

as long as you stick to your plan, there's no harm in being involved in the negotiating process.  you can ascertain valuable information 

The Angels won 80 games last year with catastrophic pitching injuries. They've improved their depth considerably without taking on long-term contracts or sacrificing their farm. As much as I'd love Kikuchi or Corbin or Realmuto in the short-term, they're currently an 85-win team on paper and in position to be even better in 2020. That isn't a bad offseason by any means.

Assuming Trout gets $40 mil a year, he needs to put up about 5 WAR a season to generate surplus value based on the cost of wins on the free agent market. That doesn't include his additional value as a franchise player who is sure to put asses in seats, eyes on the tv and credit card numbers on merchandising sites. Plus, his skill-set and current, sustained level of play suggests that only serious injuries would prevent him from being a valuable player even as he ages. There's risk to giving him $400 million but there's risk to trading him for prospects. There's risk to letting him go and expecting who ever takes over CF to produce and retain fan loyalty. There's risk to getting on an airplane, crossing the street, ordering your steak rare...you need risk in order to thrive and this team has never developed and held a true Hall of Fame talent. Why screw that up because of risk?

If Moreno wants to maintain a fan base, he better offer the best player in franchise history, the best player in the game, the best player of this generation just beginning his prime, 400  freakin' million dollars.

Considering he was generally seen as a #3 with health red flags due to overuse when drafted, this is a nice sign. Law in general's been a little higher on our top prospects than most reputable outlets...

can I erase this before Canning's arm falls off?

Considering he was generally seen as a #3 with health red flags due to overuse when drafted, this is a nice sign. Law in general's been a little higher on our top prospects than most reputable outlets...

I'd be on board with Harper if:
1. Arte was somehow willing to break the bank for Bryce AND extend Trout. Because if he's not willing to do both, I'd obviously rather do the latter and use resources to keep building a strong team with young talent in order to convince Trout to stay. 
2. Harper was willing to move to 1B, at least by 2020. I don't see the point in signing Harper and then trading Adell considering he could very well end up producing at a similar level for a lot less money.
That said, the thought of opposing pitchers having to open a game with Harper-Trout-Ohtani is pretty sweet.

Yeah, it's interesting that baseball economic discourse tends to come down to "Owners Vs. Players" whereas minor leaguers and stadium/club employees are the ones who are truly getting screwed these days.