Hubs

I highly doubt this is the team going into spring training. IT has been a sloooooow winter, but I agree with the majority of your projections.

I disagree with two or three key points.

1) Rengifo as a starter. He's too versatile in that he's a bad defender at nearly every position, but seemingly can play them. Drury is the starter at 2nd as of now. As of now the DH will be a rotation between Trout, Adell, Rendon, Drury and Rengifo. So...he doesn't quite have that power or that number of games.

2) Moniak is better than you think and due to the open DH spot he will get into more games in the OF.

3) O'Hoppe is going to more be the guy he was for the 36 games you listed as good stats (the 16 game start and the 20 game finish). So I would bump him up to the Angels 2nd highest WAR player behind Trout.

I still like my 4 player acquisitions of Snell, Bellinger (or another OF Bat), Bieber, and an infield bat like Anderson or Rosario.

Add in a back end reliever and call it an offseason.

On 1/5/2023 at 9:57 AM, Hubs said:

My fearless prediction is that the foursome of Ward, Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon stays healthy and they are the best 1-4 in the league. They combine for around 140 HR. They all play 145+ games.

Other predictions.

The 5-9 is mostly a platoon with Renfroe, Walsh/Drury, Drury/Urshela, Stassi/Thaiss/O'Hoppe, and Urshela/Rengifo/Fletcher does adequately, with Walsh returning to 2021 form but platooning against most lefties, Renfroe turning in a very similar numbers to his past 2 seasons at a low .800's OPS and 30 HR with 25 2B, Drury continuing his success from 2022 with similar numbers to Renfroe. Urshela plays a lot, at every position except C and CF. He also plays more shortstop than expected, but Rengifo starts against lefties and Fletcher gets the bulk of the AB's against righties. At C, O'Hoppe starts in AAA for the first two and half months, but then moves into the regular lineup as the starter for the final three. Stassi starts 2/5 games though, so it remains a platoon. He hits like in 2021, as well, so the platoon is very strong.

The rotation is solid, with 5 starters starting 25 games or more. The 6th spot begins as a rotation, but Canning eventually wins the job by August and makes 15 starts.

Angels win the World Series.

 

 

Wow was I way off. LOL. Way too optimistic.

42 minutes ago, BTH said:

@Jeff Fletcher any idea if/when the Angels plan to announce their final coaching staff?

Who haven't they named? Just Bullpen Coach, right? Assistant Hitting Coach? 

Manager: Ron Washington

Bench: Ray Montgomery

"Offensive Coordinator" Tim Laker

Hitting: Johnny Washington

Pitching: Barry Enright

3rd Base / Outfield: Eric Young Sr.

1st Base / Baserunning: Bo Porter

Infield Coach: Ryan Goins

Catching Coach: Jerry Narron

19 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

To me it isn't about balking on the $700M. If Ohtani is suggesting HEAVY deferrals that lead to a $2M salary then i'd 1000000% match it if I was Arte. The dude would have sold the team by the time that payment takes effect so it wouldn't be his concern. If anything, the value of the team would be higher when trying to sell it. It's a win-win.

Keep your best player for better chances to win while flipping a bigger profit when selling the team.

They still have to put some of the deferred money aside starting in like 2026. Like 40+ million in an account per year. 

Angels still need two starters, two bats, and at least one back end bullpen piece. 
 

My choices: 

Snell & Bieber

Bellinger and Turner

Hicks

Only 9 teams have made significant moves. Only 4 of these have made more than one.

Dodgers, obviously are winning the offseason with the Ohtani and Yamamoto signings, plus the Glasnow trade.

Rays obviously are on the other side of the Glasnow trade.

Yankees did add Juan Soto.

Diamondbacks added a pitcher, E. Rodriguez, and a hitter, L. Gurriel Jr..

Giants added Korean Outfielder Lee.

Braves made a bunch of weird trades.

Blue Jays re-signed Kiermeirer and signed IKF.

Tigers added Flaherty, Miller, Chafin, and Maeda. Lost E. Rodriguez.

Royals added Lugo, Wacha, and Renfroe.

15 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

Such a strange off season for halos. Do top players want to come here? RSN probably has something to do with spending. After all this is a business. Maybe Arte does not want to add any big contracts because he's thinking about selling. Rumor has halos have interest in Snell and Hernandez plus early on Tim Anderson. Players signed only 3 to major league deals and very little money. I keep waiting for some big deal or some type of trade but so far nothing. Curious to see what they do as we head in New Year. 

They got their full RSN (112) for 2024. They own 25% of Bally Sports West, so even though the deal was 20/3B its really 20/2.25 as they don't pay themselves rights fees (or maybe they do, I don't know). 

2 hours ago, HBAngel13 said:

I wouldn’t agree with this. He can pitch at that level, but not consistently.  Therein lies the problem with giving him a 7 yr contract. 

I would love Snell on a 3-yr deal or Bellinger on a 4-yr deal, but 7 and 12 (?) is a poor choice for those players. 

Ask SD how they feel about that Xander Boegarts contract after one year….

Snell’s final 23 starts of the year he allowed just a 1.20 ERA which was the second lowest ERA in a 23 start span only to Bob Gibson in 1968. (This was from and si.com article). How is this not an ace? 

His first 9 starts were subpar and I understand that but after those 45 innings, he pitched 5.86 innings per start, just 3 innings shy of being the 6 inning average. He allowed three runs to the Dodgers and Marlins and other than those allowed just 12 runs in 21 starts. 
 

10 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Only thing that interests me a bit in Gallo is if Washington can 'fix' him however he helped Bellinger fix his swing. Maybe closing up his stance and stride more like Bellinger's would help him. I dunno. He's a mess. But Bellinger's last two years with LAD (.193/.256/.355/.611, 70 XBH, 69 BB, 244 K in 900 PA) look like kind of Gallo's last couple of years (.168/.290/.394/.684 with 60 XBH, 104 BB, 305 K in 742 PA).

Maybe, but Gallo never had a year where he hit .305/.406/.629 either. You'd be asking for Washington to fix his swing to be something he never was. Bellinger was an elite player from 2017-2019, and then had a subpar year and two years where he hit rock bottom. Then rebounded some last year for a .307/.356/.525 line. Hopefully he could get back to the .600 SLG percentages.. that would be a great addition to the middle of the Angels lineup. 

10 minutes ago, Hubs said:

 

Perhaps you can get Jonathan India or someone like Cronenworth for Anderson, Rengifo and a prospect pitcher.

 

Evan White and Tyler Anderson plus someone like Suarez or Soto for Cronenworth would work according to BTV. 

But Cronenworth is due a lot of money, and the Padres may not want to take on more salary for 2024. So there would probably be money on both sides. 

Like The Angels pay Anderson's salary this year, while the Padres pay $2M of Cronenworth's deal from 2025-2030. Thats roughly the same amount of money, but they get out from the $13M in 2024. White makes the same as Cronenworth in 2024. ($7M).

Or the Angels can swap only White for Cronenworth and like 24M from 2025-2030. Like 4 M per. 

India would likely cost more, and Beiber would cost some as well. 

But lets start making moves.

I know Bellinger is gonna cost, but at this point, if you're trying to be competitive in Arte's last years of his 70's, he's pretty much the only option.

MLBTR's projection was 12 / 264. That's 22 per season.

I'd do it. Yes it's an investment, and yes he's an injury risk, but, even at 10 years I'd do that number. 

Blake Snell was at 7/200, which is 28.57 per season. .

I'd do it. Yes it's an investment and yes he averaged 5.2 IP per start last year, but he was also a 6 bWAR pitcher last year, and is an elite ace. I'd also...

Sign Marcus Stroman to his 2 year 44 M projection.

I may also keep a 6 man rotation, and ask my guys to go 6 1/3... The pitching philosophy the last few seasons hasn't been good, and the guys we have aren't used to running out there every five days. With Snell, Stroman, Sandoval, Detmers and Canning, Anderson ..a 6 man rotation means 27 starts each. And you have Silseth perhaps over Anderson, or you can trade for more offense somewhere else.

Perhaps you can get Jonathan India or someone like Cronenworth for Anderson, Rengifo and a prospect pitcher.

Alternately, I would consider bringing in Shane Beiber instead of Stroman.

But they need to start making moves...Snell and Bellinger are both Boras clients, but get it done. 

Just now, Hubs said:

Wow is it really that high? 

 

It's not. He's got a .323 OBP in his career, and .301 and .280 OBP the past two years. In Texas and NY in 2021, he did a .351 OBP but that was when he was full time, 38 HR, 213 K and 111 BB.

There are better options. 

Just now, Stradling said:

And gets on base 38% of the time. 

Wow is it really that high? 

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Another player that we could kick the tires on if we are at all considering Hernandez is Gallo.  High OBP, power from the left side as well as good outfield defense.

And he maybe hits .200 if everything goes right.

11 minutes ago, BTH said:

Ironic for you to be making fun of typing issues.

Exactly. @Angels 1961 Typcial post. Adell OF Good Ward Ok Trout Hurt Durry sign Anderson?

13 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Who is Berlinger?

Autocorrect, lol

I say go for it and add Bellinger, Snell, Imanaga and Hicks and Moore. Fuck it. You aren't gonna win if you don't open the check book. There are no significant upgrades coming from the farm in the next 2 seasons. 

24-25 MLB Free Agents include Pete Alonso, Wily Adames, Bregman, and a lot of pitchers. No one that exciting.

Just now, jsnpritchett said:

Yes, I know what it is.  No, I'm not going to say the exact amount.  Ha.

And, yes, I know you can get it when you opt in/upgrade.  That's my point: it used to be offered as part of the basic package, but it no longer is.

 

Because it's too expensive?

22 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Keep in mind that not everyone who subscribes to cable in the LA/OC area gets Bally Sports West.  Spectrum doesn't even offer it on their basic plan anymore.  You either have to upgrade or talk your way into one of their plans that lets you do a la carte channels (I personally have the a la carte option, but not everyone can get it).  Your $6 carriage fee estimate is a little high, too.

Do you know what the carriage fee is or are you also just estimating? 

When you opt into the sports package, you get both Bally's channels. And also NFL Network, MLB Network, etc.

21 hours ago, HBAngel13 said:

I would be much more interested to see what Jo Adell is capable of over a full season for the MLB minimum than making a $200m commitment to Bellinger.  .240 and 25HR from Adell seems like a possibility with a full season of ABs

Im in the camp that we aren’t competing in 2024 save for an unprecedented streak of good health, career years and home run FA signings. As such, let Adell, Moniak and Ward play it out. See what you have and look to improve the OF in 2025 if the need still exists.  All those guys have the potential to be average to above average regulars. Give them a chance… there is nothing to lose at this point. 

Jo currently would be the starting DH, with Moniak and Ward being better defenders. Signing Bellinger frees up one for a trade.

7 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I love that you're talking to me like I'm a child who doesn't know anything about this.  I'll just again say that some of your numbers aren't really accurate and leave it at that, as I can't fully reveal how I know. 

We can keep going back and forth and getting nowhere, but at the end of the day, I think we both agree that, regardless of the hows and whys of it all, traditional RSNs aren't long for this world, and the revenue that will replace the MLB revenue generated by RSNs won't come close to replicating it.

I am not talking just to you and I certainly don't think you're a child who knows nothing. I agree with you on the majority of this. I just don't know how the banks approved this deal (including my own US Bank/Union Bank, who's is gonna get screwed on this deal hard).

Even if my numbers are wrong, I just want to keep the debt service as part of the conversation, because if the Angels had gone the Dodgers route, I think they'd have been fine.

Even now they can go with the Clippers, Ducks, and Kings, and get out of the Diamond deal and move down the road, start their own channel, and be on the cable broadcasts for the long term. Streaming is not the answer, we are in agreement on that.

And Cable companies know that they aren't losing all their subscribers because of two things, Live Sports and Local News. I for one would ditch Cable completely if I would be able to watch NFL and the Angels via streaming.

1 minute ago, jsnpritchett said:

Yep.  Still doesn't change anything I've been saying.  It's a one-year deal.

Agreed. They will emerge from Chapter 11 with new owners, but I will maintain that the Angels are not in trouble the way that some smaller markets are. If you look at the cable subscriber estimates at 65M of the 131M households it's half and probably gonna drop to 40% in the next few years.

There are 5.7M TV households in Los Angeles Metro and then even at 40% its 2.3 Million subscribers. $6*12*2.3M = 165 Million in revenue. 

14 minutes ago, Hubs said:

They made a deal last week to not discount the rights of the majority of their MLB team deals for 2024. 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/tentative-deal-between-diamond-sports-023720346.html

 

This included the Angels. They get a reported $112M. (which is 75% of 150, since the Angels reported a 3B deal but own 25% of the channel)

19 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

They're not getting $2.1B in revenue from carriage fees and the advertising revenue is likely a fraction of what you're thinking it might be.  That's all I'll say about that for now.  I am not now, nor have I ever been, saying that the structure of the deal to create Diamond was a good one.  It was clearly terrible from the outset.  My point continues to simply be that you have a rosier image of the carriage fees and advertising revenue than the realities of where they are at this point in time (and you're underestimating the non-MLB rights fees they pay, too, btw...NBA alone is somewhere in the $600M/year range).

They get between $4 and $6 per cable subscriber, based on the market. LA is on the higher end as they offer two channels here, and some of the smaller markets are on the lower end. ESPN is almost $8 and Fox News was reportedly almost $10. It's what drives cable fees. They have at a minimum 35% of the market in the USA with some major markets. There are currently between 60-65M cable subscribers, down from 84M when the deal was signed and almost 100M at the peak.

The carriage fee is the reason the RSN's were valued so highly. I think 2.1 B per year is pretty fair honestly.

This was discussed in detail when the Dodgers left then Fox Sports and moved their channel to TWC. Mason and Ireland discussed this with someone and they broke down the option of a streaming channel. They talked about maybe 50k would pay 10 bucks a month to stream Dodgers games, but with 4M Cable Subscribers and $5 bucks a month they're getting 20M a month vs. 500k... 

This model has changed, somewhat, but it is still profitable, at least for now. The rights fees without a streaming option will continue to decline, even if they've locked them in for 2024. I am not arguing this point. 

The added 800M plus in debt service per year is why they went to Chapter 11, which is reorganization, rather than Chapter 13 which is liquidation. They're trying to get out from some of the unprofitable rights deals and markets and trying to offload some of that unsecured debt. Diamond Sports is formerly a subsidiary of Sinclair, which owns the most local news stations in the country, and they did this complicated debt deal to buy the RSN's because they were profitable. They are probably not profitable now, but some portions are. But I maintain that if they hadn't been sold, this wouldn't have accelerated so swiftly.

And as for rights fees for other leagues, look them up, they don't have the most profitable teams, and even the Clippers which share the LA Market with the Angels get a fraction of what the Angels get. Hockey is a fraction of Basketball.