Jump to content

Game 6

Restricted Membership
  • Posts

    3,391
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
  2. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Lou in OC Register: Angels GM Billy Eppler says they ‘stretched’ budget to land Cody Allen   
    do you have any idea where we rank on current payroll?  Fifth.
    every team ahead of us has much higher revenue coming in on an annual basis.
  3. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Docwaukee in The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread   
    they likely don't need to perform above expectation.  They need to be as good as the guys they are replacing so we can use that money for other stuff.  It's actually the entire premise of what Eppler is trying to do.  
  4. Haha
    Game 6 reacted to Docwaukee in 2018 Hot Stove League   
    the only guy the Angels could acquire for Calhoun at this point is Zack Cozart.  You think he's available?  
  5. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Hubs in Payroll update   
    Yeah, Jeff's number is right on.
    Ettin's number is off because he had every one on the 40-man earning 555k, which they don't. The 15 guys not on the active roster, earn between 60-150k when they are in the minors, and the league minimum in the minors. So he's adding roughly 8 M to the payroll number.  Also his benefits number is $6M short.
    Trout, Pujols, Upton, Simmons, Calhoun, Cozart are on multi-year contracts. Their AAV payroll number is then different. 116.25M Actual Payroll,  90.25M AAV Payroll.
    Bour, Lucroy, Cahill, Harvey, LaStella, Heaney, Skaggs, Robles, Bedrosian, Garcia, Tropeano, JC Ramirez, and Allen are all on one year deals signed from FA or in lieu of arbitration. 50.601 Actual and AAV Payroll.
    That's 19 players, 17 of which are likely to make the Major League Roster out of ST. One will be on the 60-Day DL. And Tropeano will likely be at SLC as he has option years remaining. All arbitration one year deals are guaranteed, unless they cut them in ST.
    Kevan Smith, David Fletcher, Shoehei Ohtani, are all likely to make the club out of ST, while pitchers Jaime Barria, Felix Pena, Justin Anderson, Ty Buttrey, Noe Ramirez, Dillon Peters, John Curtiss, Taylor Cole, and Williams Jerez may also make the team, and Taylor Ward and Peter Bourjos (who is not on the 40-man roster) or Michael Hermosillio, and Jose Briceno may also make the club. Keynan Middleton (a likely ML 60-Day candidate) will be on the DL, and could be on the major league DL to save a 40-man spot. Ohtani could open on the DL as well, but it would be the 15-man.
    Let's just say 8 of the above do make the club at 555k, that's $4.440 million, plus say Keynan Middleton makes the club on the ML 60-Day DL, that's around 5 Million. There are 17 guys listed there, 16 of which are on the 40-Man. The 8 not on the opening day roster make around $150k, since they've all been in the majors before. The other guys like Jose Suarez, Luis Rengifo,  Luis Madero, Jesus Castillo, and Jake Jewell all make less. Actually Jewell did see some Major league time, so put him in the 150k group.
    If any of these guys get called up to the majors, they get a pro-rated 555k plus a pro-rated 150k for their work in the minors. So if say, Hermosillo is active for 36 days or 20% of the season, he's get 20% of 555k or 111k plus 80% of 150k or 120k, for a total of 231K. The 9 who don't make the club but are listed above are similar in contract value. 9 x $150 = $1.35+4 x 60= $1.5 M in minor league salaries for 40-man guys. If any of these guys are cut, in favor of say Walsh, or Thaiss, or Canning, their contract is not guaranteed.
    But, say one or two of the guys I put in the 8 to make the club gets sent down, in favor of Hermosillo for those 36 days, then basically, his salary is reduced by that amount. So you don't count it twice. The only way this is counted twice is if the club control player is hurt in the majors, and goes on the DL, then call-ups would be additional salary. But this is a negligible amount. Looking at Cots' figures, it 
    Basically if you perform in ST and don't have an option, you are likely from that group to make the team. Of the guys listed as club control - Smith is out of minor league options and Noe Ramirez is out...meaning they are likely to be in the major leagues. There are a few of the arbitration group also out of options, like Bedrosian, Robles and Garcia, who all will be in the majors.
    The 25-man Payroll then is 116.25+50.601+5M = $172M plus the 14M in Benefits. That's 186M Actual Payroll, but the $172 M is the number most people articles use to describe "Payroll" and when you see articles saying we were around $165-$167 the last three years, this is the number they were talking about.
     
     
     
     
     
     
  6. Like
    Game 6 reacted to jessecrall in Ohtani DH question   
    I can't find specific data quickly enough to make it worth my while but he definitely improved statistically against lefties as the season went on. Coming into September, he had a .509 OPS against them so if he ended at .654, he obviously made serious progress over the last month. He also LOOKED much more comfortable against them in the 2nd half. He didn't have the "bailing out on pitches that hit the inside corner" or "flailing at breaking balls low and away" at bats that we saw early on. 
  7. Thank You
    Game 6 reacted to Docwaukee in The Eppler way?   
    btw, there are going to end up being a total of 7 deals of 4yrs or more this year.  Corbin, Eovaldi are done.  Harper, Machado, Pollack, Kimbrel and Keuchel are left and I'm not convinced that Keuchel and Pollock are going to get 4+.  Most likely, but it's not guaranteed at this point.  
    On top of that, there are another 7 guys who have gotten 3 year deals.  there are probably 2-3 more that are going to get 3 years.  that's a total of 15 or so players with deals of 3 years or more.  About one for every other team.  
    Everything else is a 2, 1 or minor league deal for the other 200 free agents out there.  
    do you know why it's unusual that Eppler is handing out so many one year deals?  Because it's highly unusual that a team with this many holes to fill would want to try to compete or that they would spend money.  Most of the time teams will have guys from the farm taking a bunch of those spots or just sit on their hands.  
    People are mistaking/confusing the ancillary benefit that the Angels have in inking these one year deals with the intent.  The intent of doing this is that they want to win.  Just like the intent of pursing Corbin, Eovaldi, Happ, Ramos and others is to win.  The ancillary benefit of 1yrs deals is two fold.  You can trade them if they're performing or you can bag them and have that money free for next year if they don't. 
    The strategy is the make the team better now and in the long term.  If there's a player warranting a long term deal next off season and Eppler feels he fits that criteria then he won't hesitate to sign him.  If someone can tell me where we've missed that opportunity this off season, I would love to hear it.    
  8. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Jeff Fletcher in Team has gotten worse?   
    They have done exactly what Eppler said they were doing. 
    They made as many small short term improvements as they could to give themselves a chance at the playoffs this year, while sacrificing none of the farm system and taking on no large financial commitments. 
    They have a chance at 90 wins this year, and next year the farm system will be even better. Remember, an improving farm system helps you in 3 ways: the players play for you, they save you money to spend on established players, they give you capital to spend to trade for other players. A good farm system is the only way to have an extended window of success, so they’ve been operating around that. It’s like having half the store open while you’re doing renovations, as opposed to closing the whole place (tanking).
    Next year’s FA’s include OC natives Gerrit Cole and Nolan Arenado. 
     
  9. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Inside Pitch in Team has gotten worse?   
    The parts that remain from last year ...  Trout (10.2), Ohtani (3.9), Upton (3.8), Simmons (6.2), Cozart (0.1 224 ABs), (Fletcher 2.0), (Albatross 0.5) Calhoun (0.7)
    The parts they removed from last yr ....  Marte (-0.4), Valbuena (-0.9), Kowart (-1.0), Maldonado (0.5 both teams), 
    The parts they have added this year ....  Lucroy (1.9), Bour (1.0), LaStella (0.2), K Smith (0.7)  Projected fWAR 2019.
    On paper.... they are better.   On paper, Fangraphs projects the Angels position players to combine for the third best fWAR in MLB at 30.1 behind Boston 31.7, and the Dodgers 30.4.  https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1
     
    Mind you that includes defense so it's overvaluing Cozart and nearly 1/3 of that is due to Trout, but again -- this is a purely "on paper" analysis by a completely impartial party.  So, it's not "yes man" homerism, it's not "Aw.com brainwashing", it's a purely analytical look at what the Angels position players could amount to...   On Paper, they project well...  and this is pretty much excluding all the minor league guys who could potentially come up and help.
    This is the actual issue.   
    Nobody knows what they will get out of the pen -- and all the primary reason why they could all be awful is the same reason they could all surprise and be good -- reliever volatility.  Allen is a name and had a track record but he's also shown signs of decline (the velocity issues).   The best thing that can be said about the back end of the rotation is that it likely has a high floor, but there is potential for catastrophe there.   The upside -- Canning and Suarez.   There is potential upside with the farm, but those aren't safe bets.  Heaney and Skaggs at worst are solid mid rotation guys but using the same criteria as above -- the Angels pitching staff projects as the the 9th best unit in the AL, in an amazing three way tie with the Athletics, and the Rangers at 10.0 fWAR.
    So do you believe one and shit on the other -- and if so, which one do you buy and which one do you punt on.   Purely based on probability -- there are larger more complete track records with the position players and because of the nature of pitching (RP), and injury history significantly more potential for boon or bust on the mound.
     
    The offense is lopsided but hardly a disaster -- at least the data doesn't support your opinion.   Taking the pessimistic approach with every possible position is as silly as going the other way and assuming everyone will improve.  Calhoun was a disaster last year -- Cozart was injured and bad.   But there is more there than you are giving them credit for and even the Red Sox ran out three positions that combined for negative WARs last year (C, 2B, 3B).
    Right now...  Fangraphs has them as an 85 win team.  Last year they had them as an 82 win team on opening day.   It's a projection so it should be taken with a grain of salt but on paper -- they have improved.   85 wins projects to them missing the playoffs.  The Rays are sitting on 86 wins.    https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings   So, they are in the conversation at least.
  10. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Lou in What's up with all these 1-year deals?   
    it's funny to see people complaining about 1-yr deals when in the past there were so many complaints about giving out multi-year deals. 
  11. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Docwaukee in What's up with all these 1-year deals?   
    I think this is the most important thing to remember about the off season.  
    -got a bench bat with a career .345 obp for almost nothing that can play 2b/3b (Angels had a .263 obp as a PHer last year)
    -got a 1b for 2.5m with an additional year of control.  We had a sRC+ of 77 at 1b last year with an obp of .280.  Over the last 3 years, a wRC+ of 89 with an obp of .295.  Even in a down year, the guy we got had a 107 wRC+ in 2018 with a .341 obp.  
    -we had 281 ip from 12 starters and a 5.14 era.  Replaced with two players that pitched a total of 255 ip with a 4.38 era.  Not a tremendous upgrade but still substantial.  
    -replaced a C with a 73 wRC+ in 2018 and wRC+ of 72 for his career known as an excellent defender with a player also know for his defense and a wRC+ of 70 in 2018 and 104 for his career.  At worst a lateral move.  
    -added a pen arm that's been a closer his entire career who had an off year in 2018 that displaces the bottom of the rest of the bullpen.  Making it less like that the 67.2 ip we got from 12 players and a 5.85 era happens again.  
     
     
  12. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Angelsjunky in What's up with all these 1-year deals?   
    And all of them--Bour, Lucroy, Harvey, Cahill, Allen--share three things: 1) They are one year deals, and thus not long-term commitments; 2) They can potentially be moved for prospects; and 3) They all have upside from 2018.
    Billy Eppler is a smart man.
  13. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Docwaukee in Angels sign Cody Allen   
    he had a 2.81 era in the second half of 2017 in 32ip with 43k and 23h.  
  14. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Docwaukee in Sonny Gray about to be traded   
    you really are just lookin' for some action aren't you?  
  15. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Angel Oracle in 2018 Hot Stove League   
    Eppler is really being patient.    The majority part of me is fine with that.   The bored with "lack of offense from 3B" part of me is frustrated.
  16. Like
    Game 6 reacted to totdprods in 2018 Hot Stove League   
    Dozier going to the Nats might start shaking up the 2B/IF FA market some. They were the clear 'big spenders with a need' for that position in FA. Could start to see some things happening with guys like Marwin, Lowrie, Harrison, LeMahieu, Cabrera, Forsythe, etc., and I believe the Angels are at least eyeing 2B/3B options still in case they find an opportunity.
  17. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Stradling in 2018 Hot Stove League   
    You are kidding right?  It’s $18 million for one year of a good catcher.  And you lose a draft pick and international money.  
  18. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Docwaukee in 2018 Hot Stove League   
    Any time the Angels leak something it seems like a leverage play.  They've probably got the highest offer out there on Ottavio and are trying to make him realize they're about to move on.  
  19. Like
    Game 6 reacted to ettin in The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread   
    I would just add that Izturis was 24 when he hit the Majors and Rengifo is only 21 years old at the moment (22 next season). There is a real chance he is better than Maicer but of course nothing is promised to anyone.
  20. Like
    Game 6 reacted to wopphil in The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread   
    Nice list, but it blows me away that yet another list doesn't include Rengifo. It's almost as though the people who rank prospects dont even know who Rengifo is (perhaps because his 2018 was a breakthrough season).
  21. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Second Base in 2018 Hot Stove League   
    I think in the most ideal of scenarios, Trout is extended, Adell takes over in RF, Jahmai Jones explodes in AA and takes over 2B in 2020, Rengifo proves last year wasn't a fluke and builds on it and transitions over to 3B, while Ward and Thaiss battle it out for 1B (the other gets part time DH duty when Ohtani isn't hitting. and Fletcher grabs starts three days a week just generally filling in for Jones and Rengifo, and is a pinch hitter, runner and late inning defensive replacement.
    If this played out, it would open up some payroll space, and create a very dynamic offensive and defensive unit.
  22. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Docwaukee in 2018 Hot Stove League   
    Lowrie actually offers more versatility because he can play 2b or SS.  plus that .360 obp over the last couple years would look great in our leadoff spot.  
    an argument could be made that Moustakas would be a nice fit for lineup depth with good power that could extend the lineup.  
    I think either would be a good fit.  
  23. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Stradling in 2018 Hot Stove League   
    Yea I’ve been championing this for awhile.  I hope it happens but I’ve seen nothing to indicate it will.  With Lowrie and Ottavino this is a decent team capable of 87 or so wins.  
  24. Like
    Game 6 reacted to VariousCrap in 2018 Hot Stove League   
    I think it was @Stradling who has mentioned this idea a few times before and I agree, Lowrie would be a smart move.  Even if you have to sign him to a two year deal, if he has a year like he did last year, he should be easy to trade if the Angels end up not needing him that second year.
  25. Like
    Game 6 reacted to Angel Oracle in The Official 2018 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread   
    A little Walt Hriniak in it?
×
×
  • Create New...