Inside Pitch

27 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Again, my point isn't which is better and I wasn't asking. My point is simply that there are multiple ways to calculate the stat that is generally referred to as WAR (and a secondary point, which I've made before, is that even most hard-core fans have no idea what actually goes into it), and long-term, I don't think that's good for the history of the sport.

That's all. I'm not sure why what I said has led to multiple diversions and explanations.

I like data, and I find discussing the various different stats in MLB interesting. I've probably derailed a few threads as a result.

The "why are there different versions" comes up often and for many (not saying you), it's what they point to in order to discredit it's merits. There's a guy on Twitter who constantly posts career WAR totals using bWAR comparing players who offensively it's obvious one player was significantly better than the other and yet the WAR favors the weaker bat.  He does it knowing full well he's completely ignoring the defensive component of WAR but casual fans cling to it like gospel.

I understand you're not interested, but I offered the initial "insight" in case anyone else who might wonder about it.

And just to be a pain in the ass -- fWAR is still better than bWAR, in case anyone was wondering if anything may have changed in the last 90 or so minutes..

1 hour ago, DMVol said:

Prepare thyself IP. Doubt he would agree to that…we’ll see…guess it depends on the offers….

Oh -- I consider it a given.  I'm just wanting to lay down the groundwork for my future rants.

3 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

For Angels to get best prospect for Anderson they should pay down some of his contract. Anderson has had a good couple of months, but money owned and a regression in performance could be coming.

I don't know if they need to but they should offer to pay the remainder of any and every expiring contract they try to move if it means getting a better prospect ...It's not like there is any concern they will cross over the luxury cap.

I really don't give a shit that Arte didn't blow a grip of money chasing names this winter but I'd be bent if he could pay to get better prospects and chose not to.  

6 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

I'm not even making a case for which WAR is "better." I'm just saying I think it's silly that there are different versions of a metric that's called the same thing by various sources. 

Well if you're wondering which one is better -- it's fWAR.

The genesis for all the WARs can be traced to Keith Woolner and his VORP stat but Bill James had been hinting at and working towards something meant to measure player value as early as 1982.  I think the reason there are least three different versions plus JAWS is because they are still trying to perfect it. IMHO the defensive component of WAR will always make for some seriously wonky results.  

People are almost better off knowing where each of the versions of WAR are flawed and trying to find the common ground between them.

Regardless of which version people choose to use, any weighted stat is better than any of the traditional raw data.

2 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

...though he's 115th in pitcher WAR if you use Fangraphs' system, which favors FIP instead of actual results.  That's one of the biggest gaps between the two systems that I've seen recently (and another reason that I think WAR can sometimes be a silly metric, since there's no agreement on how to calculate it).

He's like in the 500s when using WARP too.  

I'm a fan of FIP, but I'm aware of it's biases and it's propensity to ignore guys with low K rates but overall it's a better starting point IMO than RA/9.  Anderson is living off a ridiculously low BABip right now, he's got a slightly elevated walk rate but he's sporting the 3rd lowest BaBiP in MLB.

Teams know what he is and what he isn't -- but just by virtue of being left-handed he hold value.  The concerns about Ward's slump are IMO overstated as well.  Teams know what he is too, smart teams don't make decisions based on small samples.

9 hours ago, m0nkey said:

I had no idea Charlie Morton looked like that without a hat

I was sure he had dreadlocks!

12 hours ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Has anyone told Evan White he should work on throwing a knuckleball?

He would get injured filing down his nails.

7 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

DiChiara hasn't played the last 4 games.  Haven't seen anything about him being hurt.  Maybe they've finally just had enough of him.

Is there a MLB fat camp? 

5 hours ago, Hubs said:

Trout hopefully will be back in two weeks, Rendon in one.

9 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

 

Pretty clean inning by Angels BP standards.

26 minutes ago, OneandDone said:

I didn't use the words Dick or Whore in my post.

How very un-American.

1 hour ago, BTH said:

just a thought to consider: might it be worth having an Angels injury updates thread? Rather than a new post for every update, or it getting buried in a gameday thread?

Not sure Chuck could afford the bandwidth for something that big.  Not sure the federal government can either.

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

 Right now he's a kid facing near MLB ready pitchers. He probably has never seen a lot of these pitches in his life.

AA Is the new AAA.  

3 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

IMHO he should not be at AA. He's obviously completely overmatched. 

Physically, he's not able to play at that level -- skill can only a carry a guy so far.

1 hour ago, mmc said:

 

 

Gotta bust everyone but the cash cow I guess.

4 hours ago, m0nkey said:

What a difference a little more than a week can make. I imagine he'll get tomorrow off to "reset"

This is why its so important for him to play when he's hot.  This slump was expected, he's done this his entire career across every level.  He goes super cold and can't hit water when he does.  He will go supernova again too.  It's been a part of his game.

1 hour ago, mmc said:

 

Dude has Sideshow Bob's haircut.  

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Fletcher ended up going 5 innings, 3 hits, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K.  I still don't know why the second run was earned, but whatever.

Such a bizarre story.  He can't really make it as a pitcher, can he??

He must of rubbed up against Ohtani a lot or something.

So, shotgun retirements are a thing eh?

20 hours ago, Tank said:

allen watson sliced open his hand with either a knife or a can of soda. @Inside Pitch

He sliced the wrist on his pitching hand while trying to open a bottle of beer.  You'd think he was from the deep south or maybe West VA but nope -- he was from Flushing/Jamaica NY....

8 hours ago, Blarg said:

Maybe you forgot about the moth eater in the 80's up in the cheap seats at Angels stadium. The lights would attract these very large moths, scared the crap out of my wife one night when one nose dived into her drink.

There was a guy that would tell people in that area he would eat as many moths as people would pay per moth. So he would gather up money and then snatch them out of the air and gulp them down. 

Between the moths and the moth eater, Carol refused to sit in the upper deck ever since. 

Was going yo say this very thing.  Every so often he'd have a moth off where someone would challenge him to see who could eat the most -- he was a machine. That same section in the third deck (LF/3B corner) was where the flying tortillas would "originate" from.  My brother and I used to beg our Dad to let us go sit up there

On 5/22/2024 at 6:46 PM, BTH said:

yes, but I don't see him gaining ~3 mph in average exit velocity the next few years.

I'd be surprised if he didn't ... It's not just a strength thing, as he learns the leagues, the parks, and the pitchers, he'll learn when/where to let it rip.

Miller has always been my favorite baseball writer because despite being a early disciple of sabermetric principles he never went full blown robot, he's always allowed/considered player agency.  The biggest most insightful comment made in that article wasn't the math stuff but rather where he ends it by saying Nolan is making the decision to be short to the ball.  That's where experience will kick in, that's where we will likely see the biggest increases in bat speed/exit velocity. 

Pull rate on FBs has long been the been one of, if not the best predictor of future success, a sign that the player can identify and swing hard at the FB. Schanuel was promoted before he had any real time to show that ability, his success was entirely built on bat control.  The fact that his walk rate has dropped is an indication he's not yet mastered it and is hitting defensively, but I'd be shocked if he doesn't. He will never be a power guy, but he could be a doubles machine, something the nerdy stuff in that article pointed to.

6 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Power is always the last developed skill set, as it is lift... Sorry. Usually, it's gap to gap power that a player comes in with = extra base hits that could project to lift as the player adds weight and matures.

Veteran skills. 

The attempts to force power out of him were misguided.  

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Thanks! Doesn't play in 3 weeks, and then they put him on the IL. Lol. 

They were "no habla-ing" for three weeks.

Kevin Trout.