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In the end I just want us to make the best possible trade deals that we can. If that means Kendrick, Trumbo, Aybar, Iannetta, or Bourjos has to go (or more than one) then so be it. I just don't want us to sell low or through desperation.

Here is the other thing to remember: Established MLB players have more value than prospects. If we are talking about trading Howie for another current, MLB pitcher then yes you'd expect to get a pitcher who also has about two years of control left and is probably a #2-#3 type starter (something close to that). However if you are going after Minor League pitchers then you can and will get more. Since we need to watch our team budget going after prospects is the best route for our long term future, especially in terms of controllable years. So, realistically, there is no reason that Howie couldn't bring in 2 or more prospects (depending on their quality and how close they are to the Majors) if he was traded. This is why the rumor of Zach Lee and Chris Withrow made a lot of sense: One is a "high-pedigree" AA starting pitcher and the other is a AAA/MLB high quality relief pitcher. If it had gone through we would have received the Dodgers #1 prospect plus one more prospect/player (Withrow has pitched some innings in the Majors this season but is still probably considered a prospect).

After running so hard to beat the tag, he must be gassed.

Thanks AJ. I am not really high on Jepsen, I just don't think he has the mental grit for late-inning work, he just seems to never quite put it together in my mind. However you are right about Jepsen probably being a bit better that Gutierrez but the latter is a little cheaper. In my mind the Angels could trade Jepsen plus a prospect (or something similar) to a team that needs salary relief and bullpen arms for something we need in return. As far as Trumbo is concerned let me first say this: I like Mark Trumbo! I think he is a serious, intelligent student of the game. However, I don't see his walk rate moving to much off of 7% and his strikeout rate improving beyond the 26% it has been at the last two years. I could totally be wrong but I think the version of Trumbo we have seen the last two years is a pretty good approximation of what we should expect moving rorward. Right now there is a strong, developing market for corner OF and even 1B power bats. The Phillies, Giants, and Diamondbacks all have expressed interest in the last week in acquiring a power hitting OF. The Rays could certainly use a power-hitting 1B and there are more teams like the Marlins, White Sox, etc. that might have interest in Trumbo (signing him to a long term extension). If the Angels can find a way to keep him here, great! It just seems like we don't have a regular position for him and he is close to the height of his value in the current trade market where we could maximize a return. I hope, if we do trade him, that it is for the right package, period. As far as Trout is concerned I am one of the proponents of a 20 year money shattering contract for some of the reasons you cited. If you offered Trout a 20 year/$500 million contract it would totally shatter every contract in baseball history. A-Rod was at $270 million right? Wouldn't he and his agent say "wow we should seriously sign this contract it would put Trout in the history books" or something similar. I just think you have to put something on the table that he would have incredible difficutly passing on. Trout says that he likes to attack the other teams defense and I say we should attack Trout's agent with something that just knocks him and Mike off of their feet.

Correct, the posting fee is counted, under the current posting rules, as marketing budget if I am not mistaken which is not counted towards the luxury tax. You then offer him a multi-year contract at about $8-10 million (this guy isn't Darvish btw) for a #2/#3 type starter which is pretty reasonable in all likelihood. The only question is Tanaka good enough? It sounds like he is for $10 million a season but I haven't seen him pitch personally so I just hope the Angels scouts get a good look at him.

Okay yes AAV. So still we are talking 3-4 million in 2014, 6 million in 2015, 7 million in 2016. Still not a lot overall.

Sorry I wasn't implying that you were, I was simply saying that when I wrote the article I assumed that they wouldn't automatically. You are correct that I should have included him and you are correct that he has the most trade value of anyone, anywhere at this point in time. His value is so high that I am not sure any team could provide a package that would value him correctly because that package would strip the trading team down so much that they would have Trout and not much else. Wasn't trying to offend you!

Hi Ithaca, I guess I kinda assumed that the club wasn't completely brain dead but yes you are correct.

Doc, if they start Trout's contract off small, say $8 million for 2014, even if we do exceed the threshold it would only be by no more that about $10 million or so. That is only an additional 1.7 million next year and then, if we continue to stay over by that rough amount, by about 3-4 million the following year (and 4-5 million in 2016). In 2017 we have a lot of money coming off the books and it wouldn't even be an issue. Considering that we may even DFA someone like Blanton and eat $8 million (not to mention the $19 million on Vernon) this is pocket change to be honest. There is really no reason to not extend Trout now and just pay him less the next 2-3 years and then kick it in after.

Dochalo is quite correct but tdawg is right in pointing this out. Going over the luxury tax for 1 or more years would not be a burden to a team that has no debt and receives undisclosed amounts of money from the 25% share of FSW it receives. We keep looking at the luxury tax threshold as some hard wall when in reality it does punish teams but doesn't punish them particularly hard for going over the threshold for a year or two. It is when teams like the Yankees go over for 2+ years that the tax rate skyrockets.

You are correct about the AAV but I've been thinking there are other ways for the Angels to shed money off of the payroll in small amounts here and there. Blanton is an example of where we could absorb $6 of his $8 million contract and send him to another team for instance. This can be repeated in smaller doses with other players (for instance we could simply DFA Juan Gutierrez and his base $750,000 instead of entering arbitration and having them bump it up to 1 million or so). The thing is that you can start the first year of Trout's extension off small. In the end he will only care about total value and starting him off at $8 million for instance is manageable. Next season our total base payroll reduces by about $10 million so you can continue to increase it incrementally as we move on year to year. Also there is nothing wrong if the Angels go over the cap temporarily for one year. The team has no debt and makes a lot of money off of their RSN share with FSW. We look at the luxury tax as some type of hard barrier and it is not if the owner doesn't want it to be. I still think it is quite achievable.

I don't think obtaining a starter who can eat some innings and give us a chance to win will be that difficult. They certainly won't be outstanding, without a doubt, but we just need a decent 3rd or 4th starter to get us to a point where one of the two "traded-for" pitchers is ready to come up (sometime in the Summer). Tanaka shouldn't really cost us more than $10 million per season so considering he is a projected #2 or #3 he is a good target to be sure. If we were real risk takers we might go after Roy Halladay for a 2-year contract (risky but with possible upside) for instance? Also I think I was pretty clear at the end that we are a "few steps away". I agree with you Doc that it may not be enough but the hypothetical outline does give us renewed depth and a better chance of getting back to a contending season. I like Howie and Mark I think they are both serious prepared players when they come to the game and play but they are the ones that have value right now and would give us the best chance of rebooting for next season, in my opinion. The one thing I would say about your the last sentence in your first statement is that trading Howie for another Major League player won't get you as much as if you trade for prospects. Here is where I think Dipoto might shine as a GM because I believe he is capable of identifying rising stars and figuring out ways to acquire them. Acquiring Major league talent costs more and usually they can't be controlled nearly as long as the prospects. The flip side is that there is usually more stability in terms of production (i.e. You generally know what you are getting). However I'd argue that the Angels have not done a good job of evaluating MLB players in recent years (Kazmir, Matthews, Hamilton, et. al.). The other thing that I know you are aware of Doc is that almost every MLB team will use more than their starting five throughout the season. Those two acquisitions at AA/AAA would most assuredly end up pitching either because someone is injured or they are underperforming so the value is there (although you are correct that it could not be as much as it may appear from the article). Thanks for reading it!

Some of you may have noticed that I left out Kevin Jepsen. I know he throws hard but he just seems to never really get it together to make it in our bullpen. I imagine the Angels might trade him this off season but he is still relatively cheap enough to keep. I wouldn't mind seeing a trade where we send Jepsen plus a Minor League prospect for a closer like Casey Jannsen who has an option for $4 million next season and would be a big improvement to the back end of our bullpen. There are probably other options but some teams would like Jepsen and his price.

Thanks Geoff, it has been strangely silent here! LOL! Long read so maybe some couldn't leg it out? Just some thoughts on what trades can accomplish for our depth situation while allowing us to still extend Trout.

Well why not since he keeps giving his competition dirt naps?

How's that different from any other day?

1) DH Kole Calhoun 2) LF Mike Trout 3) 1B Albert Pujols 4) RF Josh Hamilton 5) 3B Luis Jimenez 6) 2B Grant Green 7) SS Erick Aybar 8) C Hank Conger 9) CF Peter Bourjos Trumbo and Kendrick are the more likely choices to be traded considering they probably have the most value and demand in the marketplace. The Diamondbacks, Giants, and Phillies are all looking for a power corner outfield bat and so there is an opportunity to maximize the return on Mark. Bench will be a FA RHH Catcher (or Iannetta might stay), Andrew Romine, and Shuck to start the season.

Fixed.

They have really spiked since Weaver had to throw at their heads two years ago. Tiger fans are douches.

I doubt the Padres would give him up, much less cheaply. He throws nearly triple digit heat (although this year he has been in the mid-90's) and would probably cost us more than we want to give. I like him though and would love to have him on our staff!

It is an interesting thought. His last handful of starts have been terrific and it seems like he may have recaptured some of his Rockies magic. It might be a low cost option that makes sense.

Dwyer is clearly a fan of gift baskets.

I hope it is with the Angels, but either way Vlad deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. Great player and even classier human being!

This is the part that we need to be careful with. I don't disagree about looking into him and from what I have heard he seems like a potential investment but I would hope that we scout him heavily before an attempted purchase. Remember there have been more failures than successes from Japan.

Ghost of Juan Rivera