ettin

Rest In Peace Tawny.... my 16-year old self was in love.

The free agent class this year is middle-heavy, with little at the top (elite) and not a lot at the bottom (lottery tickets).

You are looking at this from the wrong angle, I think. The thing you should be looking at is whether or not the odds for the Angels to get to the postseason are reasonable, entering the season. Yes the other teams are trying to improve and could potentially win the Division, but parity creates an environment where winning 85 games and the Division becomes a possibility, versus, say, Houston winning 93 games with the Angels being the only other good team in the Division, winning 90 games and not making it to a Wild Card spot or the playoffs. Ultimately the Angels have a good core and they have opportunities to improve the 2022 team and be competitive, so we should ignore ".500" and focus on the probability and win curves to best position the team for success. Parity will focus the team to win, knowing that one particular team is not overly dominant in comparison to others. I think competitiveness and creating an edge on this team, knowing they face solid competition is what the Halos actually need right now, as well. Maybe I'm wrong.

Nice thought, but I haven't programmed in quite a while, I'd just end up making the Angels worse.

Atlanta is a small market team, so I really feel like they would not kick in much, no more than like $2M-$3M, so I think this particular (Smith) scenario is pretty remote. However, the latter part of your comment is a distinct possibility, but if the Angels are beefing up the back-end of their bullpen, rather than the front part of their rotation, I think all of us will be lamenting on a terrible offseason, in all likelihood (may still result in a good 2022 season, but we will all be very angry when we hit Opening Day).

Got your overall point, but it will be nearly impossible for the Angels to take on Iglesias and a $13M Smith option, as well, unless they find pre-arbitration arms in trade (which means top prospects are heading out the door). Minasian will potentially have to get creative, I agree.

Mayers is worth $2.2M, he ran a 20.3% K%-BB% rate this year and was even higher in 2020. He will get paid more than that if we kick him into free agency, so either trade him or retain him, but don't let him go for free.

Also, there appear to be a lot of teams with a lot of open payroll space this offseason, so it will be a battle on many free agents, probably.

This ^^ Also none of you are factoring in that virtually every club in the Majors retains a margin of payroll to make in-season trades leading up to the Trade Deadline, so all of you probably should be shaving off about $10M, give or take, out of your spending budgets.

So agree with everything you said about roster building AJ, I think that most teams understand this (except maybe the Rockies). To play a little bit of Devil's Advocate: Something important happened in the Rule 4 Draft in 2009 and then that player had his first cup of coffee in 2011 where he showed well, despite the numbers not quite being there. That offseason (2011-2012) Moreno authorized the Pujols and Wilson deals, in part because they thought they were forming the core of a contending team (and let us not forget they got to the Division Series in 2014). We all know the history, but one might argue that Mike Trout is the driving factor in not only the preseason 2012 decisions, but virtually every decision since. His recognized value to the team drove decision making to win that would not be the norm in other situations. You could even argue that getting to the Division Series justified, to a degree, the decisions made from 2012-2014. What if the Angels had not gotten steamrolled by the Royals? The Angels won 98 games that year, that is not insignificant and in fact is quite good. For better or worse one could continue the argument that Mike Trout has been the primary reason the team has pressed forward making the "desperate moves" since they brought him up in 2011 and that it was and still is a legitimate reason to keep pressing as they have over the 10 years since then. Now you add Ohtani to the mix and you have even additional reasons to press harder. Bottom line is that, yes, you shouldn't generally add free agents to fill holes. As Jeff Fletcher has often said, free agents should be finishing pieces to a contending team and I basically agree with yours, AJ, and Jeff's philosophies. However, someone like Mike Trout only comes around once in a generation and as much as I have hated many of the decisions made by the front office over the last decade, those decisions to try and build a contender around him actually worked (2014) in the early years, but have generally maligned the team since then, despite the probable good intent. As I will discuss in the Primer Series, this offseason will be a pivotal one in the history of this ballclub and we will look back on this offseason, no matter what baseball operations and financial decisions that are made, for better or for worse.

Have to agree with Doc, here, teams that are in contention are unlikely to move their guy unless they are getting an equally helpful guy back in return (depth trading) AND they have a guy waiting in the wings. This is what makes someone like Miguel Rojas a potential target, because the Marlins have Jazz Chisolm waiting in the wings and if they keep him down a month to start the season they can insert him at SS, his likely future home, once he gets called up. Guys like Dejong are on long-term contracts for a reason: their teams want them as part of their core for the length of the contract. I am not saying it is impossible, but it is highly improbable they get moved, overall. Don't get me wrong Tots its a good list of guys, but the fact that they may have Minasian's interest is exactly the same reason the controlling teams will want to keep them. If the controlling team is within the Division (Kiner-Falafa, for example) it will become even harder and more costly, probably, as any AL West team will not want to face their former player. Guess what I am driving at is that financials play a big part in a decision to move a guy (thus Miguel's $5.5M 2022 salary which Miami may not want to keep based on their low team payroll) and the guys that have modestly-priced arbitration or pre-arb control are even less likely to be moved (Kiner-Falafa has two years of arb left and is a probable extension candidate for the Rangers, making him less likely). There is just more to the calculus that needs to be considered (financials, do the teams match up in trade needs, etc.).

Just to be clear I am speaking to the idea of trading Ohtani in the 2nd year of an arbitration contract the Angels intentionally signed him, too, indicating they fully anticipated keeping him for the two-year period (2021-2022). This was designed to give Shohei some guaranteed life-changing money and give the Angels some visibility into his health and performance that they didn't have at the beginning of 2021. So, they both got what they wanted out of this and the fact that Ohtani performed amazingly well only makes this 2-year deal a smart investment for the Halos and to move him now would be criminally irresponsible and thus not a topic of real and serious discussion, particularly when the Angels CAN extend him. All that being said the additional items listed above do make things a lot trickier. I have been working on the Primer Series and financially the people on this board need to get their heads screwed on straight about what we can do. Unless Arte increases budget and exceeds the Luxury Tax threshold, this team will not be able to afford Max Scherzer, he will be seeking a probable 2-year contract in the low-to-mid $30M+ range. That alone would eat up all available payroll space and may force us over the Luxury Tax even. Then what else? Raisel Iglesias is out of the question, he will command a $16M-$20M per year deal, himself. A FA SS? Out of the question if a top tier FA SP is our priority. I will talk about it more, but Perry Minasian is resource-constrained, unless Moreno opens up a short, significantly expanded financial window and he has never really done that in his history as owner. And, yes, it will be an interesting offseason. In fact we will look back at this offseason as a pivotal one in Angels history in my opinion, no matter which way Moreno goes.

True, but occasionally someone should point out how stupid the premise of the thread is to call attention to the ridiculousness of it. "Hey let's offer a guy a 2-year arbitration guarantee, watch said player set historical baseball records, then trade him in the 2nd year we agreed he should stay for in the first place!" Ohtani is a player you build around, not trade unless it is patently crystal clear he will not sign with your team and even then you do not trade him until his last season if you are a competing team. This isn't that hard. It harkens back to the trade Trout BS. I know the last handful of years have been disappointing, but when you have pieces like this you press forward, not set yourself back a 1,000 feet.

I just hate these types of threads....

I disagree. Rojas is on a team option year and Jazz Chisolm is ready to take over. Meyer is good but expendable when you consider the rest of their pitching staff. They need a good CF and Marsh is that. Sending Rengifo allows them to run him out at SS to start the season to suppress Chisolm's service time and then they can employ him at 2B or in a utility role. Marsh has a lot of trade value, now, you shouldn't discount it.

Beyond staying internal (my close 2nd preferred choice) or hitting up free agency (distant 3rd choice), I would choose one (actually two) particular SS to trade for, via the following base (meaning it would involve these players and maybe additional finishing pieces) transaction: Los Angeles Angels Send: CF Brandon Marsh SS Luis Rengifo Miami Marlins Send: SP Max Meyer SS Miguel Rojas RP Richard Bleier As much as I hate the idea of trading Marsh, the Angels need pitching and a good defensive SS and this deal would get both. Meyer has a lot of upside if he can develop that 3rd pitch better and Rojas is one of the Top 5 defensive SS's in baseball, still. Bleier would add a veteran lefty arm that can put the ball on the ground a lot. Would only add about $6.5M or so to payroll. The Angels could then focus on a free agent starter (in the $20M per year range) and sign a free agent OF to play LF (say no more than $5M give or take). Some here (I think @Chuckster70, actually) have advocated for Rojas before and he would be an inexpensive, 1-year alternative to see if Brendon Davis is for real or we simply bridge again until guys like Kyren Paris and Arol Vera arrive on the scene. Another name to consider in trade is Dansby Swanson if the Braves are willing. Ultimately, though, I am super okay with staying internal on Rengifo and/or flipping Fletcher to SS and playing Luis at 2B.

I actually feel like Fletcher has a slightly better arm than Rengifo, but either could play there.

10 yrs., $400M? Keep him to his already agreed upon $5.5M arbitration agreement and start it next season as IP suggested.

Sure, AO, I think there are things, as a young pitcher, that he needs to work out still, but the stuff for a good pitcher is there, it just may take time for him to turn into that guy. Both him and Sandoval have good potential and obviously the latter is showing more than the former, right now, but what I am driving at is that different players develop at different timelines and Griffin has been thrown into the fire earlier, rather than later, due to the Angels thirsty need for starters. I think that patience is needed to see the end result here. Notably we need the same patience with all of the other younger guys (Detmers, Junk, et. al.). Also, notably, this is why the Angels need to acquire at least 1-2 more starters this offseason (perhaps at the sacrifice of one of the younger names).

Also do not forget that the Angels purposely shut him down when they drafted him in order to give his arm rest (I didn't want to say "give his arm a break"). The point I am emphasizing is that he has a good pitch mix and is quite capable of being a mid-rotation starter for us. Time will tell the tale, though, so I get where you might be concerned AO, I just think we have to see more before we start becoming concerned about anything yet.

So I was looking at Statcast yesterday evening doing some research and guess who was ranked 10th out of all pitchers last season with a minimum of 50 PA's (against) in xwOBA? Iglesias was ranked 15th. Oh what the heck let me just show it:

Love you AO, but @Lou bookmark this one, please.

Actually I read that differently, so perhaps I am confused? To me, Fielding Bible is stating simply that they measure DRS from where the player was positioned whether it was within some defined, standard range (non-shift) or an area outside of the standard range (shift). As an extreme example, if the 2B was out in the LF corner, they would measure the runs saved by that player from their starting point in the LF corner, yes? So, the way I read it, and admittedly I may be completely incorrect, is that whether it was a shift or non-shift situation, the players, overall, were positioned well and led MLB in DRS in non-shift situations and were ranked 4th in shift situations. This is why I drew the conclusion that the non-shift and shifted positioning was correct and did save runs, but that many of the balls in play still found holes in-between the well-positioned defenders, thus my BABIP comment (of which the Angels had the 2nd worst BABIP in MLB). Also we were 4th worst in LOB%, 5th worst in walked batters, and 7th worst in total number of hits given up. To me it was saying the defenders were positioned well, thus the good DRS, but that hits were still finding holes, driving in all of the runners we consistently left and/or put on-base. NOTE: I started this earlier in the day, but then got sidetracked with work and I have to say I think I fried my brain thinking about it this evening. I clearly feel like I am missing something here so I will try to revisit it, tomorrow.

I'm going to take Mark Canha out behind the bleachers and get him pregnant!

This ties in a bit with the fact that Angels pitchers, as a whole, had the 2nd worst BABIP in 2021, meaning they got unlucky a lot with balls in play, i.e. opposing hitters got lucky and found a lot of holes. Clearly positioning, particularly implementing shifts, helped the Halos, as Doc pointed out. I think we all knew the Angels were not that bad defensively, but it was still a clear liability that needs to be addressed. All that being said the front office will have a big decision to make about SS in 2022. If they "punt" and roll the dice on Rengifo (not a bad choice if the focus is pitching), defense will not be as good as it could be, probably, but the price in dollars to upgrade may not be the practical choice. There are some options in FA and trade, but Minasian will have to balance the highest priority need (starters) vs. the secondary needs (SS and backup C). Thanks for sharing that @Dochalo!