Swordsman78

1 minute ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Thank you for going silent the entirety of the series until the guardians won 2 of 3. Again, you ducked my proposal and came here to gloat as if I didn’t state the angels taking 1 of 3 results in nothing. You confirmed how much of a dumb dumb you actually are. Congrats!

Your proposal was based on a false pretense.   Any team going 3-0 would have been an outlier.  Which is why you find the logic of the Tiers challenging.

You chose to jump the gun after the first game, whilst more seasoned observers reserved comment until the series concluded.   It is apparent that Self control is NOT one of your better angels.

The series played out exactly as the Tiers predicted (in a majority of contests).  Tier 1 - 67% win rate.   Tier 5 - 33% win rate.

On 5/4/2024 at 1:02 AM, Angelsfan1984 said:

Ah man I’m sure this was just a fluke. No way a t6 team beat a t1 team…

Precisely why the proprietary Tier metrics are first and foremost based on "series win" vs individual games.   Yes a Tier 1 team would be expected to beat a Tier 5 team 67% of the time, and that is exactly what happened.

16 hours ago, The Ghost of Bob Starr said:

Are we six yet?

Good question and I will defer to our protege Angelsfan1984 for additional input.

The Angels are argue-ably trending down.   While we have not "officially" updated the proprietary Tier metrics yet, a case could be made, although losing a series to a Tier 1 team is not as punitive as getting swept by the Twins.

1 hour ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Based on your tiers the guardians should throttle the angels. 2 angel wins should be enough for this to happen. time to show us what you got…
 

Why are you feeling so hesitant? 

Just looking out for you my man.   Also, Without your takes, other more tenured posters  may slip into Tier 6 

28 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

@Swordsman78 put up time. Let’s see how accurate your tiers are. Self ban if angels win 2 of 3. I’ll self ban if they get swept by this juggernaut. If angels sweep you change your name to “my tiers are dumb”.

deal?

Just to keep in interesting......

1.  If Angels sweep, I will apologize for wasting every ones time and delete the Tiers thread, and self ban from using the word "Tier"

2. If Angels get swept you will post an apology for doubting the logic and viability of the Tiers and add the sentence "Angelsfan1984 is a Tier 6 poster". and tag it to your future posts for the rest of the season.

3.  No self bans because flukes do happen.

2 hours ago, EDinTUSTIN said:

No doubt those are excellent points. Estevez is also largely responsible for at least two. Trout not coming through on three different clutch situations should be factored in, too 

It is gratifying to see the majority supporting the manager this year.   Even though the record is much worse, at the end of the day the manager can only play the cards he is dealt.   My efforts last year finally coming to fruition.   

Breaking this bronco took longer than it should have.   Appreciate the senior posters most of all for spear heading the revelation.

1 hour ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Self ban if angels win 2/3?

The blind squirrel anomaly would have to come into play. 

33 minutes ago, daygloman said:

It isn't gonna get better this weekend!

31 minutes ago, Jason said:

That series isn't going to end well for the Halos. 

Cleveland will be the first Tier 1 team the halos play and their record is already 11-20.   I see pain in their future.   Doubt very few on staff up to Arte survives this season 

3 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Sorry you're holding pity parties for mediocrity. 

You're not sorry at all.

At least about Anderson's night.

Just now, jsnpritchett said:

I know. That's not "stellar."

The entire point of the comment was how it must have sucked for Anderson to watch his (QS) get wasted.  

Sorry you missed that bus.

16 minutes ago, Stradling said:

3 runs in 6 innings (4.50 ERA) is now considered stellar. 

6 IP pitched.  Faced 1 over the minimum in last 4 innings pitched.   Was pulled in the 6th with a 4-2 lead.   That's about as "stellar" as we are going to get this season.  So yes.  Most knowledgeable Angel fans and baseball fans would consider Anderson's outing as stellar.

It's terrible for Anderson.  6 strong innings pitched, probably could have gone another inning (looked like he wanted to).  Exits/pulled with a 2 run lead only needing 9 outs.   Bullpen collapses ruining one of the rare stellar starting pitching efforts.

2 minutes ago, full circle said:

Trout was getting hurt when he wasn’t stealing bags too.  

Exactly the point.   Why put more (and unnecessary) strain on him.

Whelp.   

It was fun while it lasted (April).

Exactly why Trout's physical load was previously monitored since the calf injury.   

Total misuse of their #1 most valuable asset and team leader.  aka "The Franchise"

In retrospect, maybe it wasn't such a good idea to green light Trout steal those bases and risk injury.    The staff playing with fire regarding their #1 asset.

Couldn't even get through April before we lose $700,000,000 + of payroll for the season.

The wheels have officially fallen off the wagon.

Good piece of base running with the double steal followed by good situational hitting for the RBI.   Unfortunately getting caught in between bases for the second out ended up costing the would be tie-ing RBI on Ohoppe fly to center..

All in all it was a good inning though. (including the pick off)

7 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

114,800.

Still a good crowd $$$ for Arte vs the Twins. 
 

Arte may just get away with it

On 4/28/2024 at 5:38 PM, Docwaukee said:

No GM will be able to maximize their potential under Arte.   It'll be business as usual at the deadline when they trade away a few guys for players who have lesser talent because they are closer to being major league ready.  

It appears that Perry has done some nice things from an infrastructure standpoint and there's a decent core in place at the major league level.  

He has been, however, quite bad at two pretty fundamental things that he's certainly had a fair amount of control over.  The bullpen and defense.  Both have been pretty awful and both are things that even with questionable limitations and control, should be a lot better.  

The bullpen in particular has been consistently terrible during his tenure and he's actually done a decent amount of spending in that area.  

I kinda view this as a litmus of his ability.  Like asking a chef to make you an omelet.  

I hope the fact that the Angels drew 141k for the Twins series doesn't motivate Arte to tighten the belt further

12 minutes ago, T.G. said:

I like Wash, but he can save the "Rah-Rah" chatter for his players.

When his team routinely falls behind early and often, I get bored. I can find other things to do.

I like watching the young guys develop, but some of these games are about as entertaining as a root canal.

The hype video before the season started is embarrassing now as well. 

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

What I’ve learned is it’s always the organizations fault and never the player.  Except Rendon. 

Rendon was a mirage with a tier 6 body.

The Marsh trade got us o'hoppe who we needed more than Marsh at the time and still do.  
 

If Wash can get them to clean up the errors and mental mistakes, they would be a fun group to watch develop.  

6 hours ago, Halo in Chicago said:

Yeah, but now that you're actually bringing real math into it, he can't troll by saying the Angels have lost to a ton of lower tier teams...

"Real math" has the Braves and Philly in Tier 3.

16 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

I think he really believes that somehow talking about it relentlessly will create a form of credibility…when in reality he’s just a troll on the interwebs with absolutely nothing better to do. @Stradling can we have this as a pinned topic…on the 14th page?

You are calling "mommy" because you are resentful/salty that no matter what metrics are used, Cleveland ends up in Tier 1 at this point in the season.  

Also, if you are going to pick a year in your screen name, suggest using a Tier 1 or 2 season. 

7 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

There's math but there's also gibberish built upon the subjective analysis of a random dude on the internet -- it's about as scientific and analytical as an ESPN power ranking.  

If you wanted to create a tier list based on purely on math and focusing on wins and who has played who then you may as well start by using RPI as the the baseline -- RPI basic formula being, 25% team winning percentage, 50% opponents' average winning percentage, and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage.

Using RPI and going for 6 tiers you'd get the following.

Tier 1: Milwaukee .577, Baltimore .574 , Cleveland .568, NYM .556, and Boston .547.
Tier 2: Seattle .535, Cinci .526, Pittsburgh.523, LAD .521, NYY .517.
Tier 3: Atlanta .516, Philly .510, Minnesota .503, Oakland .499, Toronto .498
Tier 4: KC .497, CHC .494, SDP .494, Detroit .488, LAA .483
Tier 5: Texas .479, STL .477, TBR .475, Washington .473, SFG .473
Tier 6: Arizona .463, Houston .455, Miami .441, Colorado .426, CWS .415

So how does Oakland end up in Tier 3 while the D-Backs (You didn't even include them in yours), end up in Tier 6?  It's called the unbalanced schedule.  Even using something that attempts to incorporate real math/analysis and not "trust me bro" math it's pointless until everyone in MLB has played more than 5 or 6 of the 30 teams in MLB.  

Using RPI, 12 of the Angels 25 games (48%) have come against TIER 1 teams and 15 of their 25 games (60%) have come against the top 2 tiers .vs the 3 games they have played against the Marlins. Considering how many winnable games they have lost some might see that as a reason to believe they could do better... but reality is we don't know if they will find ways to lose against bad teams too.  It's just too early. 

Props for making an effort to substantiate your rankings but you may want to ease up on BS a bit.

 

This is an excellent response and I appreciate your use of different metrics.  Both your Tier rating, and the "prospective Angelswin" Tier rating have Cleveland in Tier 1 which seems to upset some people.  So even though different metrics are used, the results are somewhat supportive.

Since the "prospective Angelswin" Baseball Tiers are meant to be crowd sourced, We will take your suggestions and have the interns try to incorporate them .  We already added results in last 10 games as a metric due to a good suggestion.

The goal of the Tiers is to evaluate each teams performance using a snap shot in time.   Yes, the schedules are unbalanced, but we have metrics which attempt to address this, even if not to the extent you would desire.

 Your Tiers emphasize RPI which is perfectly fine.  The driving metrics for this one are "series won", and performance in last 10 games.