tchula

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Wantz had struggled over his last few starts at AA but solid tonight.  5ip, 3h, 0er, 3bb, 5k.  

I've still got hope for him as a future back end starter with a slim chance he become a Lackey type guy.  (I said slim ok)

Perhaps he is just simply adjusting?  Ever since being drafted, he hasn't missed a beat.  I'd love to see a recent scouting report on him.  In fact, there are a lot of pitchers this year that have encouraging numbers.  I really wonder who has a lot of buzz inside the organization.  I think we'll have a lot guys in A ball who will either get or get very close to a 100 inning's pitched and a 100 strikeouts this year: Oliver Ortega, Hector Yan, Kyle Tyler, Luis Alvarado, Christopher Molina, Dennis Brady, Robinson Pina, Cole Duensing,  Andrew Wantz (I know he's in AA, but started the year in A), and Jose Soriano was well on his way before he got put on the DL.  I wonder if any of the above guys (minus Soriano) project as legitimate potential starters.  Brady, Pina, Yan, and Ortega are now starting to break into some top 30 lists.  Again, whether these guys are projectable or not I have no clue.  But we haven't had this level of production and quality pitching in a long time. 

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

The only Angels lineup that would make me happy:

CF Finley

1B Pujols

RF Hamilton

LF Wells

DH Hillenbrand

3B Valbuena

2B Espinosa

SS Wood

C Mathis

I'd opt for Gary Mathews Jr. over Finley  

6 hours ago, Second Base said:

Personally, I'm beginning to lose interest in how the Angels rank as a system. Facing facts, the minor league system isn't as strong as it was a year ago, and that's both a good and as bad thing.

Good in that it is the result of graduations. Barria, Canning, Suarez, Fletcher, Rengifo, Ward, Thaiss, and Buttrey is a metric ton of depth. I don't see any stars there, but I do see some valuable regulars in Canning, Fletcher, Rengifo, Thaiss and Barria/Suarez. That will truly shape this team for years to come.

But is also bad in that the Angels haven't drafted particularly well the last two years, st least from an initial look. Last year, Adams as a first round pick has lottery upside, but right now the bat, power, defense and even base running just aren't manifesting in much. The second round pick Jackson shares that same upside but again, questions with the bat. This year, Wilson lacks the impact you're looking for from a typical first rounder, at least at first glance, and Paris is a very long way away. 

It helps that the Angels have had three consecutive strong international signing classes.

Presently, they are in a good place to help the big league team in the next 1-2 years. But in 2-3 years, there won't be much help from the farm. 4-5 years we will likely see another wave. But most prospect rankings,  in terms of comparing different teams, are heavily leaning toward the 2-3 year output. 

As how the farm system is portrayed, for the last 2-3 years, they've been underrated. By graduating as much talent as they have, the Angels likely have had a top 3-5 farm system in all of baseball, despite being ranked continually toward the bottom of things. What can I say, reputations are built over time and the media was slow to pick up the change. Now, the Angels will be back toward the bottom again, which is likely accurate. 

Our top 30 lists are still, and always will be fun and interesting. But comparing them to others? Fruitless and inaccurate. 

I agree about comparing us to other organizations, it is fruitless and inaccurate.  But it is still fun to see where the "experts" have us ranked, or at least it is more me.  I would though disagree about the last two years draft not looking good.  I still have high hopes for both Adams (who's done relatively well considering he's only 19 at Burlington and is incredibly raw) and Jackson has show incredible amount of power.  I also feel we got some guys from rounds 3-10 who will be fantastic relievers, and if either Bradish or Hernandez can get decrease the walks both have pure stuff to be solid starters.  For this year I think it is way too early to judge one way or the other.  Yes, Wilson was not a sexy pick, but outside of him we haven't seen any of the new guys yet.  Nevertheless, I think Wilson has shown promise thus far.  I do agree Paris is a long ways off because of his age, but he has loads of potential.  IMHO Kochanowicz was a great pick and Rivera has great potential as well.  I agree our last three international classes have been strong, and our farm is a little bottom heavy at the moment.  But I see a lot of good young pitchers at both low and high single A.   

10 hours ago, Blarg said:

Fletcher 35 games Leading off 23 runs scored

La Stella 38 games Leading off 26 runs scored

The two have nearly the same batting line except La Stella has a much higher slugging percentage. That is why La Stella was picked for the All Star game over Fletcher.

 

There is no doubt La Stella has been awesome.  But unfortunately, he's out for a while.  I thought his all-star bid was well deserved, but Fletcher didn't even make a blip in the voting.  Admittedly, though, I was curious to see if La Stella would continue his same level of production in the second half of the season.  

2 hours ago, ispy45 said:

Nah, most overlooked is Hansel Robles.

He's a good choice.  What a steal. 

Do any of you prospect hounds want to make a guess who the biggest risers and fallers have been in our organization?  

Fallers (guys who will drop or fall out of top 30 all together)

1. Jones (I say he falls about 10 spots)

2. Chris Rodriguez (I say he drops about 10 spots ... only due to uncertainty.  He can shoot back up quickly as he drops). 

3. Sandoval (about 10-15 spots ... I just don't think he has big league stuff)

4. Castillo (will fall out of top 30

5. Beasily (will fall out of top 30)

6. Kruger (will fall out of top 30)

7. Lund (will fall out of top 30)

8. Swanda (will fall out of top 30)

9. Jewell (will fall out of top 30)

Guys who will make a jump. 

1. Soriano (top 5 next year)

2. Walsh (top 10-15 next year)

3. Yan (maybe top 10 next year)

4. Franco (maybe top 15 next year)

5. Alvarado (maybe top 20 next year)

6. Molina (maybe top 20 next year)

7. Ortega (maybe top 20 next year)

8. Wantz (maybe top 30)

9. Warren (maybe top 30)

Others for consideration: Rainer, Vera,  and Moncion.  

Now, this doesn't include the new guys we drafted.  Ultimately I think our top ten will look something like this ...

1. Adell

2. Marsh

3. Soriano

4. Adams

5. Knowles

6. Thaiss

7. Jackson 

8. Wilson

9. Yan

10. Kochanowicz

Thoughts anyone?

I think we all echo those sediments about Tyler, Angel Oracle. 

For the last few years, and in particular with the passing of Tyler, I have had this sense that the Angels were a cursed franchise.  I remember when Adenhart was killed and what that did the organization.  Much of the media failed to mention guys like Valbuena when talking about the recent Angels who died way too young, but I considered the bat flipper an Angel as well when he passed.  And maybe I suffer from tunnel vision, because I do not follow the rest of MLB as nearly as close as I follow the Angels.  But, it seems to me we have an awful lot of players (current and former) who meet tragic ends, even more than other teams.  I could be wrong, but it seems that way to me.  In addition, the mountain of injuries that hit our organization is overwhelming.  It's so ludicrous we joke about how we should just have all our pitchers get TJ surgery so they can just get it out of the way.   For some reason, this organization has just felt a bit cursed or snake bit to me - plagued more so by tragedy and injuries than other organizations (not just baseball but any sport). 

The passing of Skaggs really shook my love for baseball. I've read about athletes dying before, and even ones on my favorite team.  But Skaggs hit me much harder than any other.  A lot harder.  I made a post about him on this very board just two hours before I read about his death.  I still get choked up thinking about it and him.  And I am not an emotional person at all. 

Every morning, like many of you I am sure, after I get up and make coffee I immediately pull up all the Angel's minor league clubs and read how they did the night before.  I live in Houston, so often times I crash before the games are complete and am unable to read about them at night.  But after Skaggs passed, I've had a hard time doing that.  Hell, I couldn't even go near baseball for about a week.  I would read to see how the team is doing, but I truly did not care if they won or lost.  Just recently, I've started prospect hounding a little more, but some times when I would look up stats on the angels mlb website, my eyes go immediately to the Skaggs stat line, and my stomach would sink a bit and I stopped caring again.  

But after last nights game, something is a bit different.  It's like, the universe or the baseball Gods, or whatever just told me that it is OK to care about baseball again.  And because the team probably had it best single day performance in every way on the very night they decided to honor Skaggs signals to me that this team can and will rise above all the tragedy, injuries, and other bullshit and accomplish something special.  I am not saying we will win the world series this year, but I feel this team is headed for great things pretty soon.  It may not be this year, but it will be soon.  It's almost like the Angels just broke their curse.  I do not know, maybe I am still a bit buzzed from the euphoria of our performance last night, but something tells me the curse is over. 

4 hours ago, Puget Sound Angel said:

24 hours later and this is still difficult to process.

This has been absolutely heart breaking. 

9 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

 

I hope Ausmus realizes he is responsible for some of those bad choices.  He pulled Skaggs way to early the other night and brought in the single worst pitcher I could think of to get us out of a jam.   I believe in using data (if used correctly), and I buy into the "third time through the rotation" argument.  But with that said, Skaggs has pitched well for the most part the past three days and the way he's being handled hasn't worked.   For example, I know batters are hitting .320 the third time through the lineup, but that various between the bottom of the line-up and the top of the line-up.  Also, if you yank your starter with guys on, do you bring in a reliever who gets more ground-ball outs than fly-outs?  I sure hope to hell they look at these stats that much more closely than just "the third time through the order", because for the life of me I can't understand why you put Cahill in that type of situation. 

12 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

New MLB top 30 -- some new entries, some guys no longer listed....   

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=ana

A total of 17 prospects with 45 grades or better.  

I've been following their rankings for quite sometime and they used to give out 45's like it was Candy.  I do not know if they are becoming more stingy with their ratings or are just not that high on the Angels prospects.  The best that I can recall, MLB.com has our farm system rated lower than both Keith Law and BA.  I am curious to see who moves up and down after the re-rankings.  I think next year we should have another top 10 farm system, and depending on the international guys, we could be a top 5 the year after.  We are expected to sign two of the top international prospects this year.

16 hours ago, Dochalo said:

this is good news.  he's got some potential apparently.  

Both Kyle Monar and Davis Daniel are interesting cases.  I think best case scenario we see Daniel pitch in Orem next year.  He'll definitely need an extended spring training.  BA says Monar has been throwing bullpen sessions, but the odds of a pitcher ever being anything like they used to after a second Tommy John is low.  But then again, that is based off of old data and perhaps rehab and modern medicine will improve his chances.  I am curious to see what the scouting reports say on him once he's assigned. 

7 hours ago, Second Base said:

That's news to me as well. Typically guys like that make some noise sooner and we hear about them. How are we just now getting this info?

I didn't know he had that type of fastball either, but it doesn't stop there.  But let me throw another name at you, or any of the prospects hounds that frequent this thread.   Luis Alvarado.  Now, I've been watching him closely, and the only scouting report on him I can find is a little blurb from Scout.com (which is nothing more than a fan site because I used to write for them a while back).  It says he has a low 90's fastball, and a couple of off-speed pitches. 

But here's the interesting story on him.  He hasn't pitched for very long.  He primarily played outfield in college (and would do the occasional relief appearance).  He was drafted out of HS, and then again out of college as an outfielder (13th round by Seattle in 2017).  Goes back for his senior year to finish school, and Nebraska tries to convert him to a full time starter.  He pretty much struggles all year mixed in with the occasional flash of brilliance in April.  We pick him in the 17th round last year.  He got rocked in rookie ball (remember, he's still continuing his first real year as a pitcher) but puts up decent strike out numbers and walks.  The Angels start him in Burlington this year primarily as a starter.  And of all the cumulative stats in Burlington, his are the most impressive.  Now, his BB/9 is a little high at around 4, but his SS/9 is close to 12, and opponents batting average is below .190. 

Now, I would love to see a more updated scouting report on him.  He's super athletic and has a very projectable frame.  I am curious to see if his fastball has gotten better and how our scouts feel about his secondary pitches.  Luis Alvarado is the pitcher I think a lot of people are over-looking. 

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

just to further the point, Ortega can hit 98 and has an era in the low 3's at A+ at age 22 but doesn't make mlb.com top 30.  

I have found the MLB.com prospect rankings and scouting is quite lazy.  For example (and this is just one example), according to BA Luis Madero has the best control in the system.  That makes sense to me, afterall, he has a career 2.77  BB/9 in the minors, which is pretty damn solid.  Yet, when you look at the mlb.com scout profile Madero's control is listed at 45 which is below average.  I used to really watch the mlb.com rankings closely but the more I follow different outlets they are akin to those Lindy's and Athlon college football magazines.  Superficial with no real substance. 

Comparing someone like Brandon Wood to Adell is comparing apples to oranges.  Wood was a top prospect and dominating the minors a year or two before the Mitchell Report came out.  I am not saying Wood was juicing, but stuff was going around all over the minors.  So, any stat from that era I take with a grain of salt.  Yes, it is theoretically possible Adell could crap himself and flame out.  It is much more probable, however, that at a minimum he turns out to be somewhere between an above average outfielder with pop and a perennial all-star.  The biggest question about Adell coming out of the draft was his ability to hit for average.  But, thus far he's show he can hit for average.  I imagine he'll be a bit shell shocked when he first gets to the majors, but he'll settle in shortly. 

16 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Which kind of goes to my point. We didn't have much in the way of TJ injuries when I played in the 80's or even before. It was Rotator Cuffs and labrums! I had 1 - surgery for impingement. Came back from it and was actually throwing harder from 86-89mph pre-surgery to 91-94mph. I was listed as 5-10.... In my cowboy boots....

Somewhere along the line overwork, improper training (and too much training) improper mechanics and attempting to fit every pitchers mechanics into a box instead of letting them throw with their natural motion has set MLB back. Now it's regular to go under the knife 1-2 times and have a cadaver ligament wrapped into place and show off your scar as a badge of honor. 

I had 3 different release points and even would drop submarine once in a while. I threw strikes consistently from each. So, it didn't really matter. That was the bottom line throwing strikes, changing the eye level, keeping the hitter off balance and getting outs. I threw the following ( up top, 3/4's and side arm  4-seam, 2-seam, cutter, circle change, curve slow and a fast slurve, slider, forkball I would drop submarine and toss up a knuckleball or a frisbee slider and forkball).

Today, they want big dudes, who throw hard and haven't worked on any consistency in their mechanics or any of their offspeed pitches. Thinking they will teach them mechanics and the proper pitches. Then they still can't throw strikes with any regularity with anything except their fastball 40-50% of the time. Then they pop their UCL and blame it on over throwing... And say we need to limit everyone's innings.

You can go down the list of all of our pitchers in our Organization. I would love to see a breakdown of arsenal, and the strike % of each pitch... I guarantee what you will find most are imperfect pitchers who predominately can only throw a few (1 or 2)  pitches consistently for strikes. (exceptions Barria, Canning, Suarez). Those names are also interesting smaller dudes that needed to work on everything to get people out.

Thoughts?

 

Thanks for the great insight. I have often wondered why the wave of TJ's surgeries that didn't seem to exist prior.  You obviously know much more about pitching mechanics than I do.  But even then (and correct me if I am wrong) I don't recall that many shoulder surgeries when I followed baseball in the 80's and 90's.  Maybe there was and I just do not remember. 

Regarding the pitch count and inning limit, I also think some of it has to do with stats.  I think we are going to see a lot of teams do unorthodox things to increase their chances of winning.  We have already seen it in fielding with the shift, and I think the introduction of guys like the designated starter is only the beginning.  Maybe that has something to do with it?  Or maybe, they want to slowly stretch these guys out (real slowly) and are you using an abundance of caution.  Some of the guys on the list were relievers last year after all.  

7 hours ago, Second Base said:

Keep an eye on Johan Sala, one of the rare semi-high profile international signings from the Dipoto era. Well built c athletic outfielder had been as raw as they come in his career so far, but you never know when it b.c will all click. He homered in Orem today and that's a start.

Also, I like that Rivera battled out there and ended up having a decent day. 

Of other note, only in the PCL wil you find a team where the 2-3-4 hitters collect 9 hits, including 2 homeruns and a double, and still manage to lose. Incredible. 

Nice to see Jordyn Adams moved to the 2- spot in the order in from off Maitan and get his average up over .250. If he keeps this up, he might just finish with respectable numbers. He may even get the call up to Inland Empire at some point. 

And I agree with ya'll on Knowles. I don't think he has the upside doc is referring to, but all this kid does is work hard and play the game better than everyone else on the field with him so far. I think he finishes in Burlington, and I openly question the wisdom of him not being in A Ball as soon as he was healthy enough to play. I think Knowles starts grabbing some top 100 notoriety next year. Between him and Deveaux, Knowles isn't the one I would've guessed would be there, but I'm happy he is. 

I think we'll have a handful of fringe Top 100's next year.  Knowles, Marsh (again), Soriano, maybe Wilson, Adams, and depending how he looks early I wouldn't be surprise to see Jack Kochanowicz get some love.  We'll see.  I figured our farm system took a bit of a step back this year because some of our best guys graduated and a few other have really struggled. But, on the other hand we've seen a wave a very good pitching at Burlington and IE this year.  I'll be curious to see where we are ranked mid-season and next year. 

13 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Great job totdprods! Actually a very good read! Thank you`

Question: Why are most averaging less than 4 innings per start? Ortega and Madero look like the only two avg. above 5 innings per start. That is an issue. They should be stretching them out even if it is in a 6-man rotation. 

Then they get here and can't fight through an inning or don't understand how to pitch without their best stuff.

 

Wasn't Yan one of those Braves guys that became Free Agents again?

 

Drop some start stat lines! Let's see if they are building confidence and arm strength or just teasing away at swingmen and openers.

I think the inning's pitch numbers are a bit skewed.  So, some of these guys have been slowly stretched out where at the beginning of the year they pitched 3 innings, now they are consistently pitching 5.  Some guys who normally start, are also brought into relief situations.  Also, because of the sheer number of guys on the roster, some of the starters are platooned.  They'll pitch two in one day, each getting them 4 innings of work.  I also think they focus more on pitch count than innings pitch.  I imagine with the wave of Tommy John's that have hit in the past three years, pitch count is aggressively monitored.  

Thank you for the hard work putting this together totdprods.  What a fantastic summary!  You totally rock.  

There is after last years draft our pitching got better.  Although we have few top of the order arms, we do have a lot of quality arms.  I am really waiting to see when our system is re-ranked if some of these guys will make the top 30.  Take Oliver Ortega as an example.  I think the reason no one's heard of him was because he came from the DSL, only pitched a couple of innings in 2016, didn't pitch in 2017 at all (Tommy John?), was solid last year, and is even better this year.  I can see why he's flown under the radar.  And his stats are even more impressive because IE is a hitter friendly park.  I would love to read a scouting report on him. 

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

Alexander Ramirez 2-4 today with a double and triple.  OPS up to .815.  Still only 16 years old (not 17 till August) .  Wonder if they give him a taste of action stateside toward the end of the year.   

I've been hoping Ramirez catches on fire.  He was the top international guy we signed last year.  I tend to doubt they'll move him stateside this year, but who knows.  Who was the youngest guy we moved from DSL?  Normally they're 18 aren't they?  We are also expected to sign one of the top international guys this year who also has a great frame like Ramirez (Arol Vera). 

7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

This has been their trend the last 5-7 years and also why I cut bait on them.   Less and less scouting more movement towards stats.  I think some of this is due to them realizing that some of the stats sites were doing a better job projecting players than they were so they shifted gears a little, but it still sucks.   I never read BBA to be told who was going to be good, I loved being able to read their scouting reports, get an idea for what guys were doing (mostly pitchers), and then looking for those skills in games.   

It sucks because they had a great niche and some guys who were pretty solid at it.

I just started BBA last year, and like you have been disappointed with two exceptions.  Their draft coverage is great, and they go more in depth on International guys than other services.  I'll probably cancel after the international signing in July lol. 

But on a side note, I would love to get someone's thoughts on Andrew Wantz, Austin Warren, Jake Lee, and Stiward Aquino for that matter.  Aquino has an incredibly high ceiling, and if they can get his mechanics right, he could develop into a top of the rotation type of a guy. 

11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Andrew Wantz was promoted to AA and made his debut tonight.  

7th round pick in 2018 from UNC Greensboro.  Big dude.  6'4, 235 lb.  

3.56 era at A+ with 58k in 48 ip.   Plus slider.  

5ip, 1h, 1er, 2bb, 5k tonight.  

I saw that last night also.  I've had my eye on him since the beginning of the year.  We drafted three reliefs guys last year who all basically pitched very well right out of the gate (Andrew Wantz, Austin Warren, and Jake Lee).  I've been trying to find out more about each.  Where did you read Wantz has a plus slider?  I have a BA subscription but am thinking of cancelling.  They report a lot of statistics (which I can look at myself) but outside of the top ten players in each organization they do very little scouting it seems.   

6 minutes ago, Tank said:

Bring your thick skin and keep chiming in.

I guess there is a reason that Glass Joe from punch out is still one of my favorite Nintendo characters of all time. 

17 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I have to go with Albert’s actual age.   How does one lose it so quickly, after dominating from 2001-2011, unless they are actually two years older?

I get that the exaggerated crouch for every career at bat, while weighing 240 back then, does take something out of the feet and knees.  But to have the decline be so sudden after historic numbers for 11 years?

Hahaha ... what is Albert's real age?  Didn't it come out that Ramon Ortiz was actually four years older than he really was or something like that?  Of course that is not nearly as bad as the little league world series when 6'2 170 lb "12 year olds" from China are blowing 90mph fastballs across the plate making our poor little potbelly American kids cry on nationally televised games. 

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Tchula brought up a good point.

Heaney got to 186 innings (including one minors rehab start) a year ago, granted they probably should have lessened that workload due to not many innings pitched the previous two years.  He also pitched 184 innings across all levels one other time before coming here.

Skaggs has never pitched beyond 158 innings across all levels before.   Anddd, he’s been a pro pitcher for TEN years now.   At some point, it’s time to either lessen expectations, or cut the losses.

Thanks dude ... and I agree they probably relied a little to heavily on Heaney last year.  I think, though, it is a bit premature to cut our losses on Skaggs.  Unfortunately, I think most of us have lessen our expectations on Skaggs.  Now, if some organization offered us a top pitching prospect for Skaggs who is almost major league ready, I would take that trade everyday of the week and twice on Sunday.  But, we know that won't happen lol.  We have Skaggs under control for the rest of this season and next.  I am willing to give him that, and then make a determination of what type of contract he offer him.  But, hypothetically speaking ... let's say Skaggs has an ERA of around 4.20 but pitches a 160+ innings.  And then let's say next year he puts his great 2018 numbers together with longevity together he produce this year.  I know that's a lot of if's, and's, and but's ... but it could happen.  OK, granted, it's doubtful, but it is still theoretically possible.  But then again, I think I have already established I may be a bit delusional. 

On a side note, I know Skaggs's performance is frustrating, but I also believe a lot of our rotation problems is because Seth "Tropeano" Rollins  and Jamie Barria have completely fallen off the face of the earth.